dannkez2407 Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 Right here we go again, paper trail and this time we are looking for value on the 1x2 market as well as unders and overs. The value must be 15% or higher, and by this i mean, what i predict the odds should be in comparison to what the bookie actually prices it should be a difference of 15% or more. Ill be using a rating system which % scores the probability of each 1x2 and under/over. The highest rated % on 1x2 and the under/over will then be rated against the best odds available using an odds comparison site. The selections will be from domestic and european leagues, mainly those highlighted as featured in my chosen analysis site. As i said, bank is ficticious for now, but should it prove to be successful that will soon change :lol All stakes will be 10pts per selection and odds quoted are the highest around i can find (bookmakers/exchanges will not be quoted though). I hope you join me in watching yet another footy system go down the pan, this time i hope im wrong.........:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 7, 2009 Author Share Posted December 7, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs TUESDAYS SELECTIONS 1x2 Atl Madrid - draw @ 3.8 Juve - draw @ 3.4 Zurich - draw @ 4.8 Maccabi - draw @ 3.35 Marseille - draw @ 3.49 wolfsburg - draw @ 3.38 (really strange how the CL games all call up a draw, must be the european effect, anyway we shall see how effective that is) unders/overs Atl madrid - overs @ 2.18 Zurich - overs @ 1.87 Maccabi - unders @ 1.61 Marseille - overs @ 1.95 Wolfsburg - overs @ 2.21 Looking for lots of 2-2 draws then :( o god, i can see this going pear shaped on day one already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 7, 2009 Author Share Posted December 7, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs one late entry for tonight unders/overs watford - overs @ 1.93 (33% over value) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 7, 2009 Author Share Posted December 7, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs RESULT unders/overs watford :clap +9.3 unders/overs results total staked = 10 total profit = +9.3 total yield = 93% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 8, 2009 Author Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs OK MORE SELECTIONS FOR TUESDAY..... 1x2 Preston - draw(again) @ 3.62 Palace - away win @ 3.77 Forest - away win @ 3.33 unders/overs Doncaster - overs @ 2.11 M'boro - overs @ 2.02 WBA - overs @ 2.06 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 8, 2009 Author Share Posted December 8, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs RESULTS FROM TODAY 1x2 Atl Madrid - draw @ 3.8 :@ -10 Juve - draw @ 3.4 :@ -10 Zurich - draw @ 4.8 :lol +38 Maccabi - draw @ 3.35 :@ -10 Marseille - draw @ 3.49 :@ -10 wolfsburg - draw @ 3.38 :@ -10 Preston - draw @ 3.62 :lol +26.2 Palace - away win @ 3.77:lol +27.7 Forest - away win @ 3.33 :@ -10 Total stake = 90 Total profit = +31.9 Total yield = 35.44% unders/overs Atl madrid - overs @ 2.18 :lol +11.8 Zurich - overs @ 1.87 :@ -10 Maccabi - unders @ 1.61 :lol +6.1 Marseille - overs @ 1.95 :lol +9.5 Wolfsburg - overs @ 2.21 :lol +12.1 Doncaster - overs @ 2.11 :@ -10 M'boro - overs @ 2.02 :lol +10.2 WBA - overs @ 2.06 :@ -10 total staked = 90 total profit = +29 total yield = 32.22% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 9, 2009 Author Share Posted December 9, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs WEDNESDAYS SELECTIONS 1x2 Olympiakos - draw @ 3.18 Dynamo - draw @ 3.75 Standard - draw @ 3.38 Liverpool - draw @ 3.38 Sevilla - draw @ 4.89 Lyon - draw @ 6.89 Stuttgart - draw @ 3.75 Inter - draw @ 4.23 Its interesting how every single CL game has called up the high probablility of a draw and yesterday it may not have had a high strike rate but it was enough to provide a profit, hope it works again tonight. The league games i trialled for tonight both called up home or away wins but the value was way too low to qualify. Unders/overs Dynamo - unders @ 1.95 Sevilla - overs @ 1.85 Stuttgart - unders @ 1.76 Barnsley - overs @ 1.81 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 11, 2009 Author Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs RESULTS FROM WEDS... 1x2 Olympiakos - draw @ 3.18:@ -10 Dynamo - draw @ 3.75 :@ -10 Standard - draw @ 3.38 :lol +23.8 Liverpool - draw @ 3.38 :@ -10 Sevilla - draw @ 4.89 :@ -10 Lyon - draw @ 6.89 :@ -10 Stuttgart - draw @ 3.75 :@ -10 Inter - draw @ 4.23 :@ -10 Total stake = 170 Total profit = -14.22 Total yield = -8.36% Unders/O Dnamo - unders @ 1.95 :@ -10 Sevilla - overs @ 1.85 :@ -10 Stuttgart - unders @ 1.76 :@ -10 Barnsley - overs @ 1.81 :@ -10 total staked = 130 total profit = -11 total yield = -8.46% NOSE DIVE............ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted December 11, 2009 Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs Ouch :( That looks very red and very angry there dannkez2407 - unlicky mate. Someone said to me once, never to trust Champions League games (and most cups really) for systems as they are just so unpredictable. Who knows, the system may just work but it will be intersting if you continue to trial it, whether it settles down and comes through in normal day-to-day league stuff :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 11, 2009 Author Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs Yeh im told that a dozen times and do i ever listen .....nope!!! im my own fool really. You are right, cup games should be dropped full stop, ill stick to the leagues to be honest. The probability calc calling them all up as draws goes to show how inconsistent it is. I have faith in this system as its back tested, so ill be holding on to the bitter end with it, hope to claw back the deficit over the weekend....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 11, 2009 Author Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs SELECTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND 1X2 ARSENAL - WIN @ 3.68 COVENTRY - DRAW @ 2.17 BLACKPOOL - WIN @ 3.67 PRESTON - DRAW @ 3.89 PALACE - WIN @ 4.33 CARDIFF - WIN @ 3.85 Judging by the odds, its either gonna be very good or very bad lol UNDERS/OVERS STOKE - OVERS @2.32 BIRMINGHAM - OVERS @ 2.16 MAN CITY - OVERS @ 1.95 FULHAM - OVERS @ 2.13 CHELSEA - OVERS @ 1.68 HULL - OVERS @ 2.08 SPURS - OVERS @ 1.61 ARSENAL - OVERS @ 1.94 DONCASTER - OVERS @ 2.14 PRESTON - UNDERS @ 1.92 READING - OVERS @ 2.04 WATFORD - OVERS @ 2.04 Crikey this is turning in to an overs system LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 11, 2009 Author Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs dont spam my thread please. Mods, can you please remove - this site seems to be doing the rounds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 12, 2009 Author Share Posted December 12, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs 1X2 COVENTRY - DRAW @ 2.17 - :@ -10 BLACKPOOL - WIN @ 3.67 - :@ -10 PRESTON - DRAW @ 3.89 - :@ -10 PALACE - WIN @ 4.33 - :@ -10 Total stake = 210 Total profit = -54.22 Total yield = -25.82% UNDERS/OVERS STOKE - OVERS @2.32 - :lol +13.2 BIRMINGHAM - OVERS @ 2.16 - :@ -10 MAN CITY - OVERS @ 1.95 - :lol +9.5 FULHAM - OVERS @ 2.13 - :@ -10 CHELSEA - OVERS @ 1.68 - :lol +6.8 HULL - OVERS @ 2.08 - :@ -10 SPURS - OVERS @ 1.61 - :@ -10 DONCASTER - OVERS @ 2.14 - :@ -10 PRESTON - UNDERS @ 1.92 - :lol +9.2 READING - OVERS @ 2.04 - :@ -10 WATFORD - OVERS @ 2.04 - :@ -10 total staked = 240 total profit = -42.33 total yield = -17.64% so not good so far, not really sure where this is going but will stick with it for meantime Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShadowsMoney Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs Glad you're only paper-trading mate :/ too many angry smileys there. Have you considered using somewhat the same system on other leagues? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs :lol no mate, it takes long enuf to get the value i find in the leagues i do, ill give it a few more weeks yet. i have 4 other systems doing me justice at the min. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs 1X2 ARSENAL - WIN @ 3.68 :lol +26.8 CARDIFF - WIN @ 3.85 :lol +28.5 Total stake = 210 Total profit = +1.08 Total yield = 0.5% UNDERS/OVERS ARSENAL - OVERS @ 1.94 :lol +9.4 total staked = 250 total profit = -32.93 total yield = -13.17% ok so not looking so bad now, so what i think ill do now is add some extra filters. The probability for a team to win or draw must be 50% or more and the value will be reduced to 8% or more. For overs/unders the probability must be 60% or more and again the value 8% or higher. The will be no cups but all leagues will be involved. Lets see how this affects it now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 14, 2009 Author Share Posted December 14, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs SELECTIONS FOR MON, TUES 1X2 ATLETICO TUCUM - WIN @ 1.9 COWDENBEATH - WIN @ 1.84 UNDERS/OVERS B.MUNCHEN A - OVERS @ 1.9 MUNSTER - UNDERS @ 1.95 STIRLING ALBION - OVERS @ 1.8 SUNDERLAND - UNDERS @ 1.86 RAITH - OVERS @ 2.07 BRECHIN - UNDERS @ 1.87 BOLTON - OVERS @ 1.94 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 15, 2009 Author Share Posted December 15, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs shame i removed the WBA game, but hey the system must remain strict. One result from last night... 1X2 ATLETICO TUCUM - WIN @ 1.9 - :lol +9 Total stake = 220 Total profit = +10.08 Total yield = 4.58% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 15, 2009 Author Share Posted December 15, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs Selection For Weds Unders/overs Liverpool - Overs @ 1.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 15, 2009 Author Share Posted December 15, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs 1X2 COWDENBEATH - WIN @ 1.84 - :lol +8.4 Total stake = 230 Total profit = +18.48 Total yield = 8.03% UNDERS/OVERS B.MUNCHEN A - OVERS @ 1.9 - POSTPONED MUNSTER - UNDERS @ 1.95 - :@ -10 STIRLING ALBION - OVERS @ 1.8 - :lol +8 SUNDERLAND - UNDERS @ 1.86 - :lol +8.6 RAITH - OVERS @ 2.07 - :@ -10 BRECHIN - UNDERS @ 1.87 - :@ -10 BOLTON - OVERS @ 1.94 - :lol +9.4 total staked = 310 total profit = -36.93 total yield = -11.91% Finally were heading in the right direction..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 16, 2009 Author Share Posted December 16, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs result from tonight Unders/overs Liverpool - Overs @ 1.8 - :lol +8 total staked = 320 total profit = -28.93 total yield = -9.04% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 17, 2009 Author Share Posted December 17, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs fridays selections 1x2 heracles - home @ 2.02 unders/overs schalke - unders @ 2.02 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 17, 2009 Author Share Posted December 17, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs weekend selections unders/overs portsmouth - overs @ 2.01 aston villa - unders @ 1.87 blackburn - overs @ 1.89 wolves - overs @ 2.1 everton - overs @ 2.04 peterborough - overs @ 1.84 QPR - overs @ 2.04 scunthorpe - unders @ 1.94 charlton - overs @ 1.93 hartlepool - overs @ 1.92 leeds - overs @ 1.91 swindon - overs @ 1.97 tranmere - overs @ 1.82 walsall - overs @ 1.88 aldershot - overs @ 1.83 bury - overs @ 2.04 cheltenham - overs @ 1.91 darlington - overs @ 1.89 port vale - overs @ 1.97 rochdale - overs @ 1.86 rotherham - overs @ 1.91 1x2 nott forest - win @ 1.8 swindon - win @ 1.95 accrington - win @ 1.97 ath bilbao - win @ 2.08 montpellier - win @ 1.85 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 19, 2009 Author Share Posted December 19, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs fridays results 1x2 heracles - home @ 2.02 - :lol +10.2 Total stake = 240 Total profit = +28.68 Total yield = 11.95% unders/overs schalke - unders @ 2.02 - :lol +10.2 total staked = 330 total profit = -18.73 total yield = -5.68% big test for the system today, lets hope it continues successfully :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 19, 2009 Author Share Posted December 19, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs unders/overs portsmouth - overs @ 2.01 - :@ -10 aston villa - unders @ 1.87 - :lol +8.7 blackburn - overs @ 1.89 - :@ -10 wolves - overs @ 2.1 - PLAYING SUNDAY everton - overs @ 2.04 - PLAYING SUNDAY peterborough - overs @ 1.84 - :lol +8.4 QPR - overs @ 2.04 - :@ -10 scunthorpe - unders @ 1.94 - POSTPONED charlton - overs @ 1.93 - :lol +9.3 hartlepool - overs @ 1.92 - :@ -10 leeds - overs @ 1.91 - :@ - 10 swindon - overs @ 1.97 - :lol +9.7 tranmere - overs @ 1.82 - :@ -10 walsall - overs @ 1.88 - :lol +8.8 aldershot - overs @ 1.83 - POSTPONED bury - overs @ 2.04 - POSTPONED cheltenham - overs @ 1.91 - POSTPONED darlington - overs @ 1.89 - POSTPONED port vale - overs @ 1.97 - POSTPONED rochdale - overs @ 1.86 - :lol +8.6 rotherham - overs @ 1.91 - POSTPONED total staked = 440 total profit = -35.43 total yield = -8.05% 1x2 nott forest - win @ 1.8 - :lol +8 swindon - win @ 1.95 - :lol +9.5 accrington - win @ 1.97 POSTPONED ath bilbao - win @ 2.08 - :lol +10.8 montpellier - win @ 1.85 - :@ -10 Total stake = 280 Total profit = +46.98 Total yield = 16.78% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 19, 2009 Author Share Posted December 19, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs Not doing so well on the unders/overs but 1x2 is going well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 20, 2009 Author Share Posted December 20, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs unders/overs wolves - overs @ 2.1 - :@ -10 everton - overs @ 2.04 - :@ -10 total staked = 460 total profit = -55.43 total yield = -12.05% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 20, 2009 Author Share Posted December 20, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs so clearly the unders/overs is not working, although when i looked deeper at the unders, they were actually profitable, so im gonna reset the bank and just do unders from now on, with teams that call up 58% or more probability and are 1.73 or more on odds to obtain value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 20, 2009 Author Share Posted December 20, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs tuesday selection 1x2 lens - win @ 2.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted December 21, 2009 Author Share Posted December 21, 2009 Re: Value in 1x2 and Unders/Overs weds selections unders lyon @ 1.73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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