Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Cheers Spooner :D Monday 1st Feburary: Valentine Vic (-1.00) Friday 5th February: Osolomio (-1.00) Saturday 6th February: Kalahari King + 12.00 Monday 8th February: Magnifico (-1.00) Totals: + 9.00 Bets -54 Wins - 6 Places - 1 Losses - 47 P/(L) - (2.87) Wiped away most the loss due to KK winning :nana

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:00 Ludlow I expect the front two in the market to have strong claims (Present Gesture and Gold Reef) but I am going to take a chance on Markila who has two course wins to her name. She represents a local yard who does well at the track (15% strike rate). Markila has done a lot of her running at this track, winning twice over 2miles. Has run over further in the past with two placed efforts but whether or not she has the stamina to cope with today's trip is a concern but I am willing to give that a chance. William Biddick takes off a handy 5lbs and I think she definately has an each way chance at a nice price. 0.5pts E/W Markila @ 8/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:05 Newbury I really like the unbeaten horse Get Me Out Of Here especially at the weights. He was last seen over course and distance back in November when he won by a length to Yetholm in Soft going. The 4th, 5th and 6th in the race have went on to win since one of which was Spirit River whowas 5 lengths behind him that day off level weights. Today my Get Me Out Of Here is 6lbs lower so I am confident the placings won't be reversed especially since my selection is running off better terms. This will be his toughest encounter yet without a shadow of a doubt as there are many in the field who have strong claims, especially with several these still unexposed and on the upgrade such as my selection. He should have more to come and can easily win off this sort of mark. 1pt win Get Me Out Of Here @ 7/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Seems as if I do better in the bigger races with another nice winner in Get Me Out Of Here. Means the thread will be in slight profit now which I am happy about. Was one race I looked at today but just decided not to have a bet in it. Will maybe be quite a quiet week in this thread for me like it has the past couple of weeks.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:50 Musselburgh Quite a nice race this and I fancy Palomar to land this. He ran a good 2nd over course and distance LTO in a tougher race when he was just 2 lengths behing the winner Eradicate from the Nicky Henderson yard. My selection has 3 wins over hurdles and although he is 15lbs higher than his best winning mark, he proved he can go close off this mark of 125 with his 2nd place LTO. Has done all his winning on ground softer than good but he should cope with the good ground today. Five of his 6 wins have been over 16-18 furlongs so the trip is ideal for him. This is the trainers only horse at the meeting which is another positive for me. 1pt win Palomar @ 11/4 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 14:45 Sandown Any Currency has been a mode lof consistency this season and has yet to be unplaced since going chasing with 2 wins and 3 places from 5 runs. Was 3rd in a Listed race off this mark over a slightly further trip LTO, made a few mistakes that day so he should go close today providing he has a mistake free round of jumping. Won off a mark of 127 at Ascot in a similar race to this and won over course and distance off a mark of 119 in this class. Ground conditions shouldn't be a problem since he has won and placed in Soft going. 1pt win Any Currency @ 7/2 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Wednesday 10th February: Markila (-1.00) Saturday 13th Feburary: Get Me Out Of Here (1st @ 6/1) + 7.00 Wednesday 17th February Palomar (3rd) (-1.00) Friday 19th February Any Currency (-1.00) Total: + 4.00 Bets -58 Wins - 7 Places - 1 Losses - 50 P/(L) - 2.87 Finally in profit, albeit a small on :nana Will most likely have a bet tomorrow with Ascot and Haydock scheduled.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:35 Haydock Miko De Beauchene is the one I like in this race, he has previously won over course and distance off a mark of 144 when he won this race 2 years ago and was 3rd last season off a higher mark of 155. The horse runs off a mark of 149 today but William Biddick takes off a vital 5lbs. This is his only ride of the day which is a positive for me. My selection was 4th in the Welsh National LTO and will be better off at the weights than all 5 of those that re-oppose from that race. The conditions should be ideal for him since he has won in Heavy going in the past and also placed in this race last year in the mud. Venetia Williams stable is going well at the minute which is another plus point. 1pt win Miko De Beauchene @ 9/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 14:45 Ascot I think Beshaber will prefer another race so my choice lands with Tasheba who ran a good 2nd in a Grade2 race over course and distance LTO so he should have a great chance of landing the spoils down in class, especially over a course and distance where his form reads 12. Has been raised 4lbs for that run but he has won a Listed race off a mark 12lbs lower but with David Bass taking off 7lbs once again he should be in contention. He is the least exposed horse in the race at just 5 years old and with only 18 runs to date so he is definately open to more progress. Has won 3 from 8 and placed in another 3 races over hurdles including a win over course and distance last year, also acts on any going. Henderson has a 30% strike rate at the track with on B J Curley having a better record at the track, he does saddle up Zabeel Palace but I feel the going will be against him. Consigliere is another main danger. 1pt win Tasheba @ 10/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 16:00 Southwell A repeat performance from Good Old Thyme in his race at Doncaster LTO should be enough to see him land this contest in my opinion, even after a 5lb rise in the weights. He was a half length 2nd to Sir Harry Ormesher. Sir Tantallus Hawk was 5th in the same race and runs off the same mark today but he was almost 5 lengths behind Good Old Thyme that day so it will be hard to judge if the pull in the weights will be enough to reverse that form. Giles Hawkins takes the ride again and he is a very capable 7lb claimer so that claim will still be useful to have despite the rise in the weights. 1pt win Good Old Thyme @ 5/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Forgot to post MDB in this yesterday, it didn't win so again I will still add it to my figures.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Still need to get round to updating this, a small catch up is needed. Not looking like there will be much more selections in this, if any at all, before Cheltenham.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:30 Exeter I fancy last years winner Teaming Rain to follow up with a win in this contest for the 2nd year on the trot. First of all he is 2lbs lower than his win in this last year and he also has McLernon on board who takes off a further 3lbs. This means he should be very well weighted and should have strong claims in this race. He has not won since that race but was a good 3rd LTO over a similar distance off a mark of 113. The drop down to a mark of 111 will help his claim in this race. He would prefer if the going was slightly softer in my opinion but I still feel he can win in these Good To Soft conditions that have been declared for today. All the horses other wins have came in Ireland and this will be only his 2nd appearance at Exeter at a track which I think suits him very well. He is definately better right-handed considering all his wins have been on right-handed tracks. 1pt win Teaming Rain @ 17/2 (Betfred - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Just a quick update really: 4 losers = (4.00) Teaming Rain (1st @ 9/1) = + 9.00 + 5.00 since last update Bets -63 Wins - 8 Places - 1 Losses - 54 P/(L) - 7.87 Will likely have a bet in the big race at Sandown on Saturday and then its on to Cheltenham. Pretty glad I have the thread in profit just in time for that, have one ante-post bet which I still need to post up and its more than likely the only Ante-Post bet I will have.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 14:05 Cheltenham - Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle 1pt E/W Marodima @ 33/1 (Victor Chandler) This horse doesn't meet many of the trends but trends don't totally concern me as much as others but it has met two trends which are "15 of the last 16 winners had run at least 4 times during the season" and "17 of the last 21 winners finished in the first 4 last time out (13 finished 1st or 2nd)." Tends aside I think this horse has a fantastic profile. He has won 5/17 over hurdles, that includes a further 6 places. He has also won 4/13 and placed in 4 other races over the jumps. The horse used to be with the Nicholls yard and didn't make a great start for Rebecca Curtis when he pulled up at Ffos Las back in August. He unplaced in his next 3 runs but has come to life this year, that started off in a listed race at Sandown where he was 3/3 but he was beaten by Binocular and Dee Ee Williams. Since then he has went on to win two class 3 handicaps, one of which he won in impressive fashion winning by 32 lengths. The form has not been franked on either of those occasions but I feel he is still capable of winning off a mark of 145 considering he won 2 races off 148 in the past. The horse has yet to win at Cheltenham but has only had the three runs at the track which has resulted in form of 299, all three of those were in chases though so it will be interesting to see how he copes at the track over hurdles. Aodhagen Conlon has claimed 7lbs in the horses last 3 rides and I feel his claim would definately help in this race but I will be confident the horse has place claims at the bery least no matter who is on board. I will more than likely have another play in this race once the final decs have been announced.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:05 Sandown Got this down to three and will be having a play on them all: Qaspal - This horse has fairly excelled since moving into handicap company with two wins to date. Won over the trip at Kempton on Good To Soft off a mark of 110. Several horses have placed again NTO but Lady Jinks who finished in 9th place that day won fairly easily in a Novice event at Wincanton yesterday. Qaspal then went on to win at this track over 20 furlongs, he was very keen that day and still managed to win so easily. Has been raised 14lbs for this but McCoy attempting to make the weight of 10-3 today (for the first time in around a year) and the fact he suggested this race for the horse makes me feel he is worthy a favourite for this race, the only worry is the good ground but he did place on the going on his debut so hopefully he will handle it today. The Hobbs yard is on fire at the moment as well with 9 winners and 10 places from the last 30 runs. Oldrik - As already mentioned for Qaspal, the Hobbs yard is firing at the moment and so is Richard Johnson who has had 11 winners from his last 30 rides and also another 6 places in the remaining 19 runs. Oldrik was last seen at Newbury in the Grade 3 Totesport Trophy when he stayed on well to finish 5th behind some nice types which include the unbeaten Get Me Out Of Here, Ronaldo Des Mottes, the progressive Manyriverstocross and graded winner Mamlook. Runs off the same mark as that race today and although he is 13lbs higher than his last win in handicap company, I do feel he will run a good race and could be in contention. Worth a chance at the price anyway. Pepe Simo - Its hard to ignore this one who has won at Listed level in Novice company off a mark of 129. Run off 140 LTO when he was 5th at Kempton on Boxing Day in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle. He was well beaten that day but was probably a bit out of his depth considering the winner is favourite for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham this week. He beat Straw Bear home that day who has won at graded level 4 times. The drop down into Listed company again will be sure to suit and a mark of 140 is definately within his capabilities in my opinion. 1pt win Qaspal @ 4/1 (WillHill - BOG) 0.4pt win Oldrik @ 16/1 (VC Bet - BOG) 0.6pt win Pepe Simo @ 15/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 16:50 Sandown Fit To Drive has strong claims off top weight if he gets over his fall LTO at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Does run off a 1lb higher mark but useful apprentice Joshue Moore takes off 7lbs which will be vital. The horse is versatile in terms of ground conditions as he has won on Good To Firm, Good and Good To Soft going. His last win was at Kempton over the distance off a mark of 125 in this grade when he beat Le Burf by a neck who has since placed in Graded company. 1pt win Fit To Drive @ 13/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[stewartd14]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010

15:05 Sandown Got this down to three and will be having a play on them all: Qaspal - This horse has fairly excelled since moving into handicap company with two wins to date. Won over the trip at Kempton on Good To Soft off a mark of 110. Several horses have placed again NTO but Lady Jinks who finished in 9th place that day won fairly easily in a Novice event at Wincanton yesterday. Qaspal then went on to win at this track over 20 furlongs, he was very keen that day and still managed to win so easily. Has been raised 14lbs for this but McCoy attempting to make the weight of 10-3 today (for the first time in around a year) and the fact he suggested this race for the horse makes me feel he is worthy a favourite for this race, the only worry is the good ground but he did place on the going on his debut so hopefully he will handle it today. The Hobbs yard is on fire at the moment as well with 9 winners and 10 places from the last 30 runs. Oldrik - As already mentioned for Qaspal, the Hobbs yard is firing at the moment and so is Richard Johnson who has had 11 winners from his last 30 rides and also another 6 places in the remaining 19 runs. Oldrik was last seen at Newbury in the Grade 3 Totesport Trophy when he stayed on well to finish 5th behind some nice types which include the unbeaten Get Me Out Of Here, Ronaldo Des Mottes, the progressive Manyriverstocross and graded winner Mamlook. Runs off the same mark as that race today and although he is 13lbs higher than his last win in handicap company, I do feel he will run a good race and could be in contention. Worth a chance at the price anyway. Pepe Simo - Its hard to ignore this one who has won at Listed level in Novice company off a mark of 129. Run off 140 LTO when he was 5th at Kempton on Boxing Day in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle. He was well beaten that day but was probably a bit out of his depth considering the winner is favourite for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham this week. He beat Straw Bear home that day who has won at graded level 4 times. The drop down into Listed company again will be sure to suit and a mark of 140 is definately within his capabilities in my opinion. 1pt win Qaspal @ 4/1 (WillHill - BOG) 0.4pt win Oldrik @ 16/1 (VC Bet - BOG) 0.6pt win Pepe Simo @ 15/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

1-2-3 :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Congratulations mate - fantastic tipping.

[TheRat]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Excellent :clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Thanks guys :nana

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:20 Towcester I will be siding with last years winner Spider Boy at a big price. Has only had the 6 runs since the win but has been running off higher marks than he has won off. Last 3 efforts were down to a fair mark and he did place twice, although was well beaten on those occasions. Was up in grade LTO so that can be ignored in my opinion. The fact he is now 6lbs lower than his win last year makes me think he is well handicapped to take this for the second year running. Same 7lb claimer on board as last year and all 3 of his wins to date. Two out of his 3 wins have been in March and one in April so it seems he keeps his best form for the Springtime. 1pt E/W Spider Boy @ 33/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Spider Boy was so close to the places, ran on well near the end :sad One last bet before Cheltenham for me: 14:10 Stratford Finally it looks set for Super Kenny to make his hurdling and UK debut. Have heard a lot about the horse and Barry Geraghty comes to the meeting for just the one ride, this could be a nice way to go into Cheltenham with a winner here to give him a bit more preparation for the next 4 days. This is one of four Henderson horses out today over two meetings and although this horse is around Even money, it is the longest shot oddswise for the trainer today which is quite crazy. I know the horse was talked up for running at the festival but maybe the reason he is running here instead is because the ground is Good today and most likely he needed a run before going to the festival and was unable to get his favoured ground before then. Not going to go in too heavy though just because he has not jumped in public yet. 2pt win Super Kenny @ 11/10 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Saturday 13th March Qaspal (1st) + 4.00 Oldrik (2nd) (-0.40) Pepe De Simo (3rd) (-0.60) Fit To Drive (-1.00) Sunday 14th March Spider Boy (-2.00) Monday 15th March Super Kenny (1st @ 5/4) + 2.50 Total: + 2.50 Bets -69 Wins - 10 Places - 1 Losses - 58 P/(L) - 10.37 A nice profit going into Cheltenham now and the 1-2-3 in the big race at Sandown on Saturday was a big confidence booster, was totally gutted that I didn't put on forecasts and tricasts but it was nice to know that I was virtually spot on with my opinions which hasn't been very often throught the NH season for me. Spider Boy was very unlucky not to place yesterday as well and Super Kenny won fairly easily today. 1 outstanding E/W bet for Cheltenham, will begin my work tomorrow and hope to increase my profit further in this field. Will be betting in virtually every race for Cheltenham and was tempted to make a different thread for it but will just be sticking to the one thread as it makes more sense.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 13:30 Cheltenham Spinal Research Supreme Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 I tipped up Get Me Out Of Here when he maintained his unbeaten record last time out at Newbury in the Grade 3 Totesport Trophy. I thought he travelled really well that day and still went on to win by just under 2 lengths despite hitting the last hurdle which looked to have dented his chances, but he stayed on well and won going away from the 2nd placed Ronaldo Des Mottes. Seems as if he won't mind the drying ground having won on Good going twice, as well as winning in Soft and Good To Soft. Has been raised 15lbs from his win LTO but I feel he is progressing really well and there is still more to come. Dunguib is obviously going to be the one to beat and to be honest there isn't much else in the race that I can see causing an upset here apart from my selection but have added a small each way bet on an outsider in Fiulin. The Evan Williams stable was on fire yesterday, notching up three winners at Taunton. Moloney was on board for all three and he teams up with Evan Williams once again in this race. The horse has won in Listed company on the flat off a mark of 106 and is still fairly lightly raced with only 15 runs to date. Did make a disappointing start over hurdles but I feel the drying ground may be better suited for him but I do expect him to get totally outclassed but at the price he is currently, its worth a small risk. 1pt win Get Me Out Of Here @ 5/1 (Bet365 - BOG) 0.25pts E/W Fiulin @ 200/1 (Betfred - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 14:05 Cheltenham Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 Should be a cracking race this and I have managed to get down to 2 that I like although I have changed my mind during this process. Firstly Somersby has made a fantastic start chasing having won 2/2 to date. These have been in small fields but he did win a Grade 2 Novice event LTO at Sandown. From 8 races to date overall he has won 4, finished 3rd on three occasions and been unplaced once. Stayed on well up the hill at the festival last year in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices hurdle at a big price of 40/1. This has been his only visit to Cheltenham to date and the fact that McCoy seemed to prefer this over his ride in the race then it seems like it should be in with a great chance as McCoy is very honest in his profession. My other selection is Riverside Theatre who has also made a good start to chasing winning 2 out of 2. He has been sent off odds on favourite in both those races but did win a Novice Grade 2 race LTO at Kempton in good style. This will be his toughest task to date but more progression can be expected and he should be a good shout for a place at the very least. Versatile groundwise having won on Good, Good To Soft and Soft ground. All his winning has been done over 16-17 furlongs so trip is perfect for him. 1pt win Somersby @ 4/1 (Paddy Power - BOG) 1pt win Riverside Theatre @ 15/2 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 14:40 Cheltenham William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase Grade 3 This is possibly the most wide open race of the day for me. Going to be siding with two in this, was tempted to have a play on three but have opted for just the 2. Nenuphar Collonges has won twice over a similar trip at this course, firstly back in December 2007 off a mark of 134 in a Grade 2 Novices Hurdle. He then won at the festival in a Grade 1 Novices Hurdle off a mark of 135. His only other run over hurdles at the track resulted in a 2nd place in what was his first race at Cheltenham in November 2007. He was 3rd in this race last year off a mark just 2lbs lower. He was beaten by a fantastic ride on Wichita Lineman and behind Maljimar who has a fantastic course record himself. Comes into the race with a similar formline to last season so could well run to a place again or maybe even go one better. Character Building is another one in the race with some good course form which reads 42431. His win came over further off a mark of 139 in a class 2 handicap. Is only 6lbs higher for todays run which should be within his capabilities. Seemed as if the run LTO over hurdles was just a prep run for this race, that gave him a chance to get a run in before the race although he does act well fresh having placed or won on all his first runs within a season (bar the race LTO which was his first one of the season). Gerraghty takes the ride which is quite an interesting jockey booking for me, this will be his first time on board the horse and hopefully he can get a fine tune out of him. 1pt win Nenuphar Collonges @ 20/1 (Paddy Power - BOG) 1pt win Character Building @ 12/1 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 15:20 Cheltenham Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1 Two horses that like to be held-up in this race for me so hopefully they are both tanking up the hill side by side in what would be an ideal scenario haha! The bonus chasing Go Native just can't be discounted here for me. Has won 8/14 races to date including three Grade 1 races to his name already. Did only beat Starluck by a short head off level weights LTO but on the same terms I feel he can hold the placings. Won the Supreme Novices hurdle at the festival last year when he beat Medermit by a neck, they race on the same terms again and although I feel it could be close between the two again, I just feel Go Native has progressed more since then. Another one I like is Khyber Kim. It seems as if Nigel Twiston-Davies has finally got things right for his gelding since he has won over course and distance in his last two starts. They were in a Grade 2 and Grade 3 race and I don't see why he can't add a Grade 1 to that list of wins. He beat Medermit off level weights LTO and although the Alan King yard is arguably in better form now, I just feel this horse will be fresh and ready for this race. Celestial Halo does run off slightly better terms but again I feel Khyber Kim can outsprint him up the hill. 1pt win Go Native @ 9/2 (WillHill - BOG) 1pt win Khyber Kim @ 8/1 (Betfred - BOG)

[Lars]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Sorry to interrupt the flow of the posts Stu, but got to wish you luck with all your bets tomorrow (as I would with anyone else!) but the fact that you're young for a punter (as I am myself), means that I always look out for your selections, even if I'm on something against it. Forever I'm going to racecourses and alongside perhaps a friend or two, being the youngest there! Good luck! ;)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 16:00 Cheltenham Glenfarclas Handicap Chase Really can't see past Garde Champetre here. He boasts a very impressive course and distance record which reads F121111. Is only 1lb higher than his win here in November so I really don't see that being a hinderence. Acts on any going, Nina Carberry knows the horse very well so there is not much reason at all to oppose this horse who is a specialist in this type of race. Is 11 years old now but has showed no signs of a decline in form. The race at Punchestown LTO over an inadequate 2m was clearly just to blow any cobwebs away and I expect to see this horse in the winners enclosure yet again tomorrow. 2pt win Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's NH selections 2009/2010 Thanks Lars, strangely just noticed your post now, appreciated mate :ok Shame I had an awful first day, notching up three seconds in total :sad