mrmuzeman Posted July 26, 2004 Share Posted July 26, 2004 Thought id make a thread incase the tennis punters want to discuss any tips. I like the look of Novak to beat Bjorkman at 1.53 and obviously Grosjean to beat Carraz but I think 1.20 is a bit short to bother with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 26, 2004 Share Posted July 26, 2004 Re: Toronto Masters - Tennis Seeing as this is a TM series event, I'll have a look later this morning and see what I can come up with :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 26, 2004 Author Share Posted July 26, 2004 nice one Look forward to hearing your thoughts tomorrow. Its on Sky Sports extra from 16.00 - 22.00 english time by the way :ok You have to fancy Hewitt to take Nadal but is 1.33 too short do you think? Also, when there is a game where you fancy the player to win but the odds are just no value and too short, is it worth backing the straight sets victory as a better value bet? For example Novak is 1.53 to win but 2.2 to win in 2-0 sets. Could you take a look at my post in the other tennis thread below as well please mate ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsthebest Posted July 26, 2004 Share Posted July 26, 2004 First Round thoughts Hewitt v Nadal - Nadal can win this game if he can adjust to the Hard courts quickly after playing on clay, and also if he is fit after coming off an injury break. Hewitt's first match on Hard after playing well at Wimbledon. They last met in Aus Open, and that was an absolutely cracking match, with Nadal probably beaten by his own inexperience, but he managed to over power Hewitt often. Hewitt will most likely win this simply because Nadal hasn't shown great form after his injury. Grosjean v Carraz - I strongly suggest staying away from this match, as Grosjean really struggled in last weeks tournament at RCA Indi, and complained of having alot of problems with his serving. Carraz on the other hand was very impressive, going deep into the same tournament - semi finals. Malisse v Chela - Malisse at odds of 1.7+ looks a very good bet. He should have no problems with Chela, who has not really done much on clay and hardly has the game for the Hard court. Malisse disposed easily of Morrison in RCA Indi, and then went out competitively to Grosjean. So he has some okay form running into this tournament, and if you check his records, he does do well this time of year on hard courts. Hrbaty v Melzer - Hrbaty @ 1.5+ also a good bet. Melzer has just been playing on clay courts in his home tournament in Austria. His first game up on Hard courts and he should struggle against a player who has had good form on hard courts this year. Hrbaty reached the Qtr's of the RCA Indi tournament, impressively beating JoJo and then being comfortably beaten by eventual winner Roddick. Agassi v Haas - Haas just beat Agassi in the quarters of the Mercedes Benz Cup 2 weeks ago and so both are familiar with each others game. Haas mentioned that he didn't start well in that game but figured out how to beat Agassi, knocking him out in 3. I really fancy Haas to beat Agassi again, as Agassi pulled out of the RCA Indi last week and so hasn't had alot of match practice. Haas on the other hand won the Mercedes Benz Cup, and mentioned on his website that he is very motivated to winning this tournament. He reached the semis at the Toronto Masters the last two times he has played there. IMO the bookies have the odds around the wrong way and Haas should be favourite. I recommend backing the confident German at odds of 2.2+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted July 26, 2004 Share Posted July 26, 2004 Re: First Round thoughts A 1st round double for me :) Karlovic to beat Bogomolov. Ljubicic to beat Beck. 2.54 corals Ivo Karlovic has done very well recently and has a huge serve that wil work well on these courts, Bogomolov doesnt have the serve of Karlovic and its hard to see him breaking him during the whole match. Other match is more easier to call, Ljub played very well last week and was unlucky not to beat Roddick having squandered 3 match points in a 2nd set tie break, Karol Beck's last performance was a defeat by Okum which isnti impressive at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest deancreus Posted July 26, 2004 Share Posted July 26, 2004 Re: First Round thoughts Disagree with the Malisse pick I see immediate value in Malisse - Chela with the latter at 2.4 Malisse has so often promised and failed to deliver and has no where near the consistency or results you''d expect from someone like him. He also hasnt been that impressive on hard courts this year failing to make it past the first round on three occasions and making it to the third round as a best result. He made it to the third round last week befroe losing to Grosjean in straight sets. Now Chela is of course much more a clay court player winning in Estoril this year and getting to the quarters at RG but his hard court pedigree isnt that bad IMO. His losses have come against Dent, Rusedski (2 big servers), Henman, Coria and Federer - not exactly bad players. Then adding to that hes also beaten Haas and Hewitt on the hard courts of Indian Wells this year. Hence to sum up I feel this is more even than the 2.4 on Chela suggests and I will be playing him to beat the inconistent Malisse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest deancreus Posted July 27, 2004 Share Posted July 27, 2004 Chela Chela wins 6-3 5-7 6-3 ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 27, 2004 Author Share Posted July 27, 2004 Nice Good call mate, dont be afaid to post any more advice! Looks like my Novak pick could have been good because the price has been slashed from 1.53 to 1.44 and 1.37. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest deancreus Posted July 27, 2004 Share Posted July 27, 2004 Tennis I'll be sure to post some more later :) Didnt post my second pick up here as forgot and was tied down talking to others about it in Betfair forum but was Mirnyi to bt Kratochvil @ Evens. The Beast is on a poor run but likes Toronto and would expect him to beat Kratochvil who IMO is a very ordinary player..... all square at the minute in set 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest deancreus Posted July 27, 2004 Share Posted July 27, 2004 Re: Tennis Mirnyi takes close first set 7-6 on the tiebreak so looking good if he can keep going....... Fancy Enqvist for later on as my first odds on shot but will need to look further into it first so will post up opinions later on :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 27, 2004 Author Share Posted July 27, 2004 Nice one Although you have to say beforehand for anyone else to benefit ;) Ive gone for KARLOVIC to beat BOGOMOLOV at 1.73 & NOVAK to beat BJORKMAN at 1.54 Does anyone see any reason not to back Gaston GAUDIO to beat Todd REID? You can get odds of 1.74 and Gaudio is no.5 in the world to Reids no.91. Gaudio won on their only meeting and in his last 4 tournaments has reached the final in ALL 4, winning one of them. Sounds good doesnt it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest deancreus Posted July 27, 2004 Share Posted July 27, 2004 Re: Nice one Yeah like I said I posted it a lot earlier on betfair but forgot about the PL folk! Also thought people could get on when tight in the first set but not in-play this one which I didnt realize...... Karlovic should win with that serve of his but Bogomolov wont be a pushover. Novak should win much easier against the veteran Bjorkman Id imagine. Be wary of Gaudio - I havent looked at this one yet but remember those 4 finals were all on clay so he has to adjust to the very different hard courts and many players struggle with this particularly the south americans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 27, 2004 Author Share Posted July 27, 2004 Yeah I seen your post on Betfair just now so I know your not aftereventing or anything so your cool! :ok I dont post on betfair just browse it now and again. I hear what youre saying about Gaudio but surely the class gap is obvious? Also I kinda want to have a go at Hass to beat Agassi but when I used to watch Tennis a while back Agassi was brill so Im having trouble fronting up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest deancreus Posted July 27, 2004 Share Posted July 27, 2004 Re: Yeah Gaudio should win true and like you mentioned he is one up in H2H on hard courts albeit a three set match. However Reid hasnt been bad this year on Hard beating the likes of Verkerk and Massu. Then of course he conspires to lose against the poor Larose of Canada! But generally he makes the third round of most hard court events this year, never further but rarely loses before this stage. Now Gaudio must be feeling the strain of along clay court season particularly with him going all the way to four finals so he must be feeling a little tired and this cant be helped by the fact that he managed to lose the last 3 of these finals. His hard court record isnt spectacular this year at all although he hasnt played many of them such has been his desire to get on the clay. Therefore although Gaudio is a great player and Id expect him to win theres enough factors to put me off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest deancreus Posted July 27, 2004 Share Posted July 27, 2004 Re: Yeah Damn Mirnyi with 4 match points there (2 on serve) and he doesnt convert any including giving one away on a double fault! Finally takes it on the 5th one to win 7-6 7-6 :notworthy So 2/2 Wins with odds against so far which is a nice start :) Looked at Enqvist - Soderling and it looks potentially very very tight so best leaving that one alone I should imagine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 27, 2004 Author Share Posted July 27, 2004 dammit Karlovic lost 6-4 7-6 :sad Im on a real tennis downer at the moment, ive lost me last four and most of my profit from Wimbledon in the process! The run cant continue....can it....? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted July 27, 2004 Share Posted July 27, 2004 Toronto Masters - Tennis Not the only one mate, Im on terrible form :( small stakes tonight on a Haas/Robredo double at 3.6ish. Haas beat Agassi a couple of weeks ago and Robredo should have enough to take care of Lee :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 27, 2004 Author Share Posted July 27, 2004 Good call That Robredo match slipped through my net, maybe it was late on the coupon? Looks like a good one though, that Lee has played 8 hard court tournies this year and gone out in the first round on 7! :eek Ive taken 1.69 at Betfair for Robredo. I liked the look of Haas too but couldnt pluck up the bucks to back against Agassi even off form, especially after losing with Karlovic! Haas is 1 set to the good now though so I wish I had :ok Heres hoping you get your double and I get some luck too:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest deancreus Posted July 27, 2004 Share Posted July 27, 2004 Re: Good call Haas 1 set all now but Agassi seems to be on top right now earning break points. Srichaphan won 7-5 6-2 which was a late night bet for me today (see betfair forum for proof not aftertiming :lol ) Interesting day ahead tomorrow. Larose of Canada said today that the courts are playing slow which will benefit the clay court players. Take of that as you will but out the first matches to start Hrbarty has been in top form on hard this year and should beat Melzer of Austria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsthebest Posted July 27, 2004 Share Posted July 27, 2004 Re:Agassi What can you say. Haas just played dumb tennis!:banghead Agassi used his brain and all of his experience and in the end haas beat himself. All credit to the grand old man. I get the feeling that Haas may have been alittle too over confident coming into this tournament, and maybe he thought he could hit an endless amount of winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest deancreus Posted July 27, 2004 Share Posted July 27, 2004 Re: Re:Agassi Looked closer at Hrbaty - Melzer and decided against it similarly to Soderling - Enqvist yesterday. Hrbaty has been on top form on hard this year winning at the start of the year in Auckland and Adelaide as well as Marseille later on. However Melzer has won a hard court tournament in Boca Raton and has beaten the likes of Enqvist, Henman, Rusedski and Andreev on Hard. Hence while Id make Hrbaty favourite 1.5 seems a little skinny to me against a player who is no mug on this surface and could cause an upset on his day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 28, 2004 Share Posted July 28, 2004 Re: Re:Agassi Carraz v Grosjean 2-1 either way @ 3.05 Paddy Power Carraz playing well lately, reaching the Semis in Indianapolis. I think he can push Grosjean on a hard court and to me this represents value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 29, 2004 Author Share Posted July 29, 2004 Yeeeeeah ROBREDO won 7-6, 6-1, nice call Matt, thanx for that one. :ok And my own pick NOVAK just came in at 5-7, 7-6, 6-0. I think Novak won 12-10 on that second set tie break so it looks like that really took the wind out of Bjorkmans sails as he lost the third 6-0! :nana Roll on the second round :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 29, 2004 Author Share Posted July 29, 2004 Unlucky Jeffers mate I decided to leave your tip as I thought Grosjean would win 2-0, how wrong i was :eek I dont think anyone wouldve predicted Carraz in straight sets and you were right about him pushing Grosjean hard, it was just too hard! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 29, 2004 Share Posted July 29, 2004 Re: Unlucky Jeffers mate mrmuze, Very annoying, as I actually covered 2-0 Carraz just to get the stake back but didn't mention it on here or put it on Sports-Punter. Carraz is having the best time of his career on hard at the moment and Grosjean really isn't at his best on the US hard court circuit. Damn close again but a winner is just round the corner :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 30, 2004 Author Share Posted July 30, 2004 Second round match Ive decided to plump for a small bet on CARRAZ to beat J.JOHANSSON. CARRAZ has been on such good form and dispatching GROSJEAN in straight sets impressed me, I thought 2.25 was value here. JOHANSSON also let me down a couple of times recently so cant be on the best of form. Heres hoping :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 30, 2004 Author Share Posted July 30, 2004 Damn CARRAZ lost 6-7, 7-6, 6-7 :banghead Didnt even know they had tie breaks in deciding sets! The fact that he lost so narrowly means there was value in my against odds pick though. At least thats what im going to tell myself :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted July 30, 2004 Share Posted July 30, 2004 Toronto Masters - Tennis Only time they dont have last set tie breaks is the grand slams Muzeman expect the US Open. :) One bet for me tonight, Thomas Johansson to beat Luis Horna, Horna played 3 sets today so I think he will be shattered whereas TJ is playing excellent and has brushed aside Massu and Andreev. value in the 1.70 availble. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted July 30, 2004 Author Share Posted July 30, 2004 johansson johansson Hi Matt, I think your mixing up the Johanssons here. Theres around 1.66 available for JJ to win but TJ is 1.33 and prices like this to beat Horna. Unless you found some big pricing error that is! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Posted July 30, 2004 Share Posted July 30, 2004 Toronto Masters - Tennis I saw 1.70 at betfair but it was to lay and I got confused for a minute, Im not taking 1.40 on it as I think its too short. However, Im now tempted on the 1.73 at Stan James for J. Johansson win :) Never really rated Saulnier and if JJ can beat a in form Carraz I think I have to back him to beat Cyril :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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