bogdancavnic Posted October 13, 2009 Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Home ratings - check 365stats for ratings on games between +10 and +30 and back home team on all major european leagues hi dan, One question: how calculate the rating for each team? thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 13, 2009 Author Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi bogdancavnic, :welcometo PL 365stats.com calculates a rating for you, without boring you too much, this is calculated using total goals, shots, corners etc in previous matches and estimates a rating that team will take in to the next match. you find the ratings by going to the individual table you require and clicking on the ratings section. hope this helps :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 13, 2009 Author Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: NINE systems of fortune Had to change me thread title, :lol, some big league action this weekend, i think 9 systems will be in play for the first time, so shud be interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bogdancavnic Posted October 13, 2009 Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune thank you I folow your strategy LTD, it is a good strategy, it's work for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 13, 2009 Author Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune excellent mate, keep an eye this weekend, there will be lots of matches coming up now the domestic games return Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 13, 2009 Author Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune only one game on tomoro aswell Game 38 croatia u21, home odds @ 2.28, 2x odds @ 18.5, 2 quid on :wall:wall :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope god damn it when is this 4th game gonna come in, 23 on the trot now. Game 39 uruguay, home odds @ 2.5, 2x odds @ 17.5, 2 quid on Game 40 usa, home odds @ 2, 2x odds @ 15, 2 quid on :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 13, 2009 Author Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok i just cant stand not doing my systems right now so gonna have a crack on them with the internationals and all other in players tomoro on BF. Admittedly not gonna be able to do overs/unders or any of the rating systems as they are all to do with the previous league history so as a warm up for the weekends action im gonna do some lay the draws, correct scores and lay 0-0's. None of these will count to the stats of my systems as they are not league games in my specified european leagues.... CS GERMANY staked 17 target 25 BULGARIA staked 17 target 25 ITALY staked 17.5, target 25 LATVIA staked 17.5, target 25 REP IRELAND staked 17, target 25 CZECH REP staked 17.25, target 25 FRANCE staked 17, target 25 PARAGUAY staked 17.25, target 25 LTD BOSNIA laid 6, liability 15 LITHUANIA laid 6, liability 15 SWITZERLAND laid 6, liability 16 ESTONIA laid 6, liability 16 POLAND laid 6, liability 16 CHILE laid 6, liability 16 USA laid 6, liability 16 LAY 0-0 LIECHTENSTEIN laid 1.33, liabililty 14.67 :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 14, 2009 Author Share Posted October 14, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune afternoon all reading around here i noticed that the rules of this section quote that this should be for explaining systems only and not for showign your selections every week. now i do both, so are ppl overly bothered if i stop putting my selections down and just show my workings out or is the consensus for me to keep posting selections. i know they are the rules but it does seem everyone round here posts their selections anyway........... am i just waffling LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bogdancavnic Posted October 14, 2009 Share Posted October 14, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok dan, good luck tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune ok i just cant stand not doing my systems right now so gonna have a crack on them with the internationals and all other in players tomoro on BF. Admittedly not gonna be able to do overs/unders or any of the rating systems as they are all to do with the previous league history so as a warm up for the weekends action im gonna do some lay the draws, correct scores and lay 0-0's. None of these will count to the stats of my systems as they are not league games in my specified european leagues.... CS GERMANY staked 17 target 25 :nana BULGARIA staked 17 target 25:nana ITALY staked 17.5, target 25:wall LATVIA staked 17.5, target 25:wall REP IRELAND staked 17, target 25:nana CZECH REP staked 17.25, target 25:nana FRANCE staked 17, target 25:wall PARAGUAY staked 17.25, target 25:wall LTD BOSNIA laid 6, liability 15:nana LITHUANIA laid 6, liability 15:nana SWITZERLAND laid 6, liability 16:wall ESTONIA laid 6, liability 16:nana POLAND laid 6, liability 16:nana CHILE laid 6, liability 16:nana USA laid 6, liability 16:wall LAY 0-0 LIECHTENSTEIN laid 1.33, liabililty 14.67:nana :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope shame the correct scores let me down - loss of 38.67 :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune god damn it when is this 4th game gonna come in, 23 on the trot now. Game 39 uruguay, home odds @ 2.5, 2x odds @ 17.5, 2 quid on:wall Game 40 usa, home odds @ 2, 2x odds @ 15, 2 quid on:nana:nana:nana :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope finally the 4th one, still 10 matches to prove we can do even better. Profit/loss52Total stake80Yield65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune no ht/ft 2x selections today...... in fact no bets at all today, its pretty baron out there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Fascinating stuff in here, how about an update on all systems so far with regards to stakes , returns and yield? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi barrhead, i have given updates as ive gone, its just the last 2 weeks of posts have been all over the place due to the international period and most of the systems not being in play. From this weekend ill be providing updates on each system individually and a grand total as ive put them all in excel now (not like me to be efficient). but for now below is my summary since i started this thread 3 or 4 weeks ago. SUMMARY OF ALL SYSTEMS SINCE START OF THREADTotal profit loss inc rd 1341.03Stake/liability inc rd 14344.2Total yield inc rd 17.85% obviously that includes trials i did when running this thread and hopefully now the leagues will be back up and running it will start to develop more of a picture for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Good yield so far, whats your taregt yield%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune im aiming for around 15%, the earlier results will obviously distort while i go thru trial and error but hopefully as i settle down to a few systems i can rely on, the yield should set itself. do u run systems at all? on here or privately? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune In the Betis - Irun game last night the score was 1-0 in min 60. The odds to lay the correct score were at that moment 2.86. My point was : in the majority of the matches at least one of the teams scores a goal or more after min 60. If you lay the score which is in the 60th minute you most likely win your bet. The lay odds are low , between 2 - 2.5 so you don't need a high strike rate to be in profit. I looked at the stats in English Premier League and Spanish Liga to see how many matches had goals scored after min 60. In EPL Round 1, 4 games had goals after min 60 (winning CS lays) and 6 finished with the score recorded in the 60th min ( the CS lay would have been lost) R 1: 4 - 6 But in the following rounds situation changed : R 2: 4 – 2 R 3: 6 – 4 R 4: 4 – 6 R 5: 9 – 1 R 6: 8 – 2 R 7: 8 – 2 R 8: 8 – 2 The same in La Liga R 1: 6 – 4 R 2: 7 – 3 R 3: 8 – 2 R 4: 8 – 2 R 5: 7 – 2 R 6: 8 – 2 Or in Serie A R 1: 6 – 4 R 2: 5 – 5 R 3: 7 – 3 R 4: 5 – 5 R 5: 4 – 6 R 6: 8 – 2 Perhaps you like higher risk and you expect odds to shorten. If you have 1-2 in min 85 the lay odds are 1.2 – 1.3 (as it was in West Ham – Fulham last week). If you expect the equalizer and lay the 1-2 in min 85 the odds are 1.15 – 1.30. This means a profit of 15 – 20 for a liability of 4. Guess what ? In the last 2 rounds 12 matches of 20 in EPL had goals scored after min 85 !!! Imagine how profitable could be these lays ! I think it’s worth a try not only in the EPL matches but generally at all the in-play games. Apologies for the long post but I wanted to make myself clear. Hello cavenecadas, IT IS TIME FOR TESTIMONY I Silently try your ideal and it workout, these are the results with $40($10 profit per match) in my account as a bonus for tester: 13/10/2009 Ghana (u20) vs Hungary (20), result by 60 mins. 2-0, Final result 3-2 :clap 14/10/2009 Germany vs Finland, result by 60 mins 0-1, Final result 1-1:clap 14/10/2009 France vs Austria, result by 60 mins 2-1, Final result 3-1:clap 14/10/2009. Uruguay vs Argentina ,result by 60mins 0-0, Final result 0-1:clap The best way of gaining something from this ideal is to have knowledge about the match b/4 start or watch it live and give ur jugdment by laying the current score. Thanks for sharing ur ideal, i send this because i want others to also have their share from the betfair cake. Sorry DAN for Hijacking your tread again.:cheers:drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune no probs law, i to, backed a few on this method and it worked but like you say its all down to knowledge on the game of the day. one thing i think would be worth laying is a home team that is one goal down at 75 mins, im not sure the stats for this, but generally when you think about it, home teams are always spurred on in the last 15 when they are only a goal down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hi Dan, Did you know that i nearly back BRAZIL yestr. when they play Venezuela beacuse of the statistic(head to head read 13-0, and Brazil score 54 goals against them b/4 yest. match) i have with me but i caution myself because i use d systm 3times yest. and won so i have to caution myself from dead match (Since Brazil already qualified) and final result remain 0:0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune goes to show doesnt always work, you would have bet your house on brazil getting a result. :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune well just found out that 365stats.com have buggered up their stats for all france and italian leagues, the bloody 1x2's are round the wrong way suggesting incorrect yields when backtesting so that means my italian job system is out the window cos its total cr*p. what i did manage to find mind you was something similar for spanish results. When the draw odds were between 4.0-5.0, to back the away team for the last 5 seasons showed a healthy profit..... so to note, ITALIAN JOB is dropped SPANISH AWAY DAY is in.......... ps. does anyone know how to contact 365stats cos i couldnt find a contact??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bogdancavnic Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune hi dan bad day for me yesterday with switzerland, but I dont give up with LTD strategy so far 8 bets, 7wins and 1 lost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune nice one bogdan. Did you have any on today! Im saving mine for the league action now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bogdancavnic Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune for today, no Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bogdancavnic Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune for today, no maybe tomorow germany 3 and austria Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rootsrunner Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune what an amazing website 365stats.com is, cant believe i havent been on there before today.... found out how to backtest ratings and found that over the last 5 years the EPL has produced a consistent yield of 17% on all teams that were rated between +10 and +30 at home, so this is what im going to go with. in some seasons it was extremely profitable to back draws on all games between -10 and +10 so just for this season i think i will to see if i can obtain a decent yield, its not gonna break my bank if i dont. as for the lays, that proved ineffective due to the odds being so high so scrapping that before i started. so systems will now be correct scores on EPL and french league Lay the draw on EPL, holland, spanish, germany. (PLEASE NOTE, that thanks to 365stats.com i have seen it is more effective to lay draws on all games with odds 3.2 to 3.8 and totally disregard the home odds full stop so this is how im going to play it) Overs on all major european leagues unders on all major european leagues Home ratings on all major european leagues draw ratings on all major european leagues still stuck with what to do during the intl period tho......... Hi Dan, First of all, congrats for your great ideas and systems! You have inspired me to investigate EPL and Scottish Premier on 365stats.com. Backing home and away teams rated +31 and more also seems to be very profiitable. How do you select such teams in 365stats? I have tried everything, but without success. Greetings :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bogdancavnic Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Dan, I study for few days the results from the leagues, and I see for the LTD strategy one more think: many games where aways teams are 3-3.80 in fixed or average odd finished with 1 or 2, not a draw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavenecadas Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune no probs law, i to, backed a few on this method and it worked but like you say its all down to knowledge on the game of the day. one thing i think would be worth laying is a home team that is one goal down at 75 mins, im not sure the stats for this, but generally when you think about it, home teams are always spurred on in the last 15 when they are only a goal down. Usually I am looking for teams which are going for the equalizer or to take the lead. Last night Italy was 2 goals down and you could lay 0-2 and when they reduced the handicap you could also lay 1-2 at much lower odds, depends on the risk you want to take. Is better to avoid teams that are leading at a big difference as they might be satisfied with the result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Hi Dan, First of all, congrats for your great ideas and systems! You have inspired me to investigate EPL and Scottish Premier on 365stats.com. Backing home and away teams rated +31 and more also seems to be very profiitable. How do you select such teams in 365stats? I have tried everything, but without success. Greetings :D hi roots :welcome to PL. glad to hear you enjoy the thread. 365stats has a miscellaneous section on the left side, click on to results search. there you can search any of the selected leagues at your choice odds and defined ratings. when you get your selections, scroll to the bottom of the results and it will show you the yield profit on level stakes backing all those games 1x2. beware of the 1x2 on italy and france though, its wrong. hope this helps:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Five systems of fortune Dan, I study for few days the results from the leagues, and I see for the LTD strategy one more think: many games where aways teams are 3-3.80 in fixed or average odd finished with 1 or 2, not a draw cheers for the tip, ill look in to that. tip for yourself on ltd, add a filter by checking the average goals scored home and away respectively to see if the predicted scoreline is a score draw, and avoid those that do.:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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