Trendsmans One and Only Thread

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Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread Cheltenham 12.05 Cheltenham Collection Novices' Chase (Class 2) 2m 5f Five Dream : (1st run at trip) Wierd Al : 316.20 Awesome George : 333.10 Minella Theatre : 318.40 Pigeon Island : 320.86 Wierd Al V Minella Theatre Ian Williams Wierd Al was last seen when winning over just short of today's trip here at Cheltenham last month when beating Knockara Beau by a neck when in receipt of 8lb and Minella Theatre was suppose to participate that day but was pulled on the Good to Soft conditions. Was a winner over today's trip when beating Tisfreetdream by four lengths in soft conditions and stayed on well that day. the Cheltenham finish could be the key factor here and has every chance to stay further and becomes a leading contender this afternoon. Henrietta Knight has booked the champ here on her six year old Kings Theatre gelding. Minella Theatre was last seen when winning on re-appearance at Hereford when beating Fiendish Flame by just under two lengths over just further than today's trip. he gets every yard of this trip and cannot see why he cannot improve again on only his second chase run Minella Theatre : 3pt Win @ 2.65 Betfair

[Trendsman]

Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread 12.40 Caspian Caviar Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) 2m 1f Spirit River : 259.80 Leamington Lad : 258.15 Trafalgar Road : 258.80 Still At Lunch : 250.70 Yetholm : 253.30 Clova Island : 249.70 Ned Ludd : 269.80 Bereaucrat : 246.86 Calzaghe : 255.80 Olympian : 270.00 Mount Welcome : (1st run at trip) Clova Island V Bereaucrat Bereaucrat from the Milton Harris yard has run into some kind of form to late was last seen when finishing fourteen lengths second to Shore Thing at Ludlow last month and had the likes of Covert Mission back in third by a further three and a half lengths. This form has been franked over the last day with Shore Thing running a solid second yesterday as did Covert Mission also recording a good second to Ocean Transit.Despite this being a much stronger contest he has every chance on form to make the frame. Clova Island runs out of the Philip Hobbs yard and gets the verey much improving Giles Hawkins in the saddle who is worthy of his 7lb claim.Won over this trip at Taunton this time last year when beating Thundering Star by six lengths, has finished second to the likes of Somersby who has gone on to frank that form immensley and recently won the Grade 2 Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown last weekend. Clova Island : 1pt Win @ 4.2 Betfair Bereaucrat : 1/2pt e/w @ 33/1 Betfred

[Trendsman]

Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread Southwell 14.10 Bet Live In Play At Totesport.com Handicap (Class 5) 2m Lost Soldier Three : 213.45 Victory Quest : 224.30 Resplendant Ace : Stepping up on AW Trip Zuwaar : 230.19 Calculating : 223.60 Three Boars : 227.12 Dubai Diva : 226.19 Calculating V Lost Soldier Three Calculating has been around these trips for a while on the All Weather over the past 12 months and was last seen when finishing third at Wolverhampton to Clear Reef over an extra 119 yards going down by just under three lengths off a 3lb lower mark.Has never won over this distance but was a fair third to Victory Quest over CD this time last year going down by just under three lengths when giving 4lb away in the weights, he is getting 8lb this afternoon and should on paper hold that form, Victory Quest has been beaten a long way recently and does not give calculatings form any good. Lost Soldier Three has been running over lesser trips the last three runs here but looks unexposed against some of these.We have to go back to April this year when finishing eighth of nine to Keenes Day over course and distance but never less clocked a quicker time despite the position on that day at Lingfield. looks better suited to Southwell going on the three runner up spots over 12f 's here and if stepping back up in trip is going to be beneficial here on this surface should go close for Dandy Nicholls. Lost Soldier Three : 2pt Win @ 3/1 Betfair

[Trendsman]

Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread Lingfield 12.00 Best Odds Guaranteed At totesport.com Handicap (Div 1) (Class 6) 6f Thoughtsofstardom : 72.26 The Name is Frank : 74.98 Only A Game : 75.92 Sorrel Point : 77.11 Miss Firefly : 74.80 Colombard : 73.87 Bountiful Bay : 73.73 Lady Trish : Dropping Back in Trip Commandingpresence : 73.97 Nawaaff : 74.24 Stormburst : 72.16 Easy Wonder : 72.38 Thoughtsofstardom V Stormburst Thoughtsofstardom ran a quick time when seen over this trip when finishing fifth to Ask Jenny over course and distance at the beginning of the month. comes here under a 5lb penalty since winning over at Southwell when coming with a late rattle to beat Head to Head by one and a half lengths under today's pilot Kelly Harrison.Looked to have plenty in hand that day and this does loo an easier task despite giving weight all round. Andrew Chamberlain's Stormburst has not shown any thing for a very long time. We have to go back two years when he finished second over course and distance going down by half a length to Fast Freddie and has Thoughtsofstardom beat that day by one length when giving 8lb in the weight department.She gets an extra pound today and deserves to be a lot closer, obviously the worry is that she has not shown anything infact has not been in the winning enclosure since October 2007 when beating Littledodayno when off a mark of 50.Has dropped back to a mark of 47 and deserves to be in these grades on that merit, but is well handicapped now to get involved. Thoughtsofstardom : 2pt Win @ 4.1 Betfair Stormburst : 1/2pt e/w @ 8.9 Betfair (1-2-3)

[Trendsman]

Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread 13.35 Best Odds Guaranteed At totesport.com Handicap (Div 2) (Class 6) 6f Radiator Rooney : 75.59 Makshoof : 72.06 Romantic Verse : 74.64 Grand Palace : 72.13 Briannsta : 74.37 Greystoke Prince : Dropping Back in Trip Davids Mark : 72.86 Dicey Affair : 82.05 Tightrope : 76.76 Boundless Applause : 72.67 Tamino : 73.00 Makshoof V Grand Palace You have to go back to early part of the year to see when Grand Palace last won at Kempton over today's trip beating Atheer Dubai by one and a quarter lengths when off a 14lb higher mark.since that win has been on a roller coaster spiral and the reason why he is off todays mark of 53.Adam Kirby has only ridden him twice and rode him to the win at Kempton and gets back on board again here which looks significant enough to get involved on this. Ian McInnes Makshoof finished a good third to Ask Jenny over course and distance at the beginning of the month and had Thoughtsofstardom back in fifth that day and that form got franked recently and could do so again as he runs in the first on the card.He does looks well handicapped here to give a good account in this event. Makshoof : 1.5pt Win @ 5.6 Betfair Grand Palace : 1pt Win @ 6.6 Betfair

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Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread 14.10 Bigger "Win Only" Odds At totesport.com Handicap (Class 4) 1m 2f Mafeking : 125.38 Suzi Spends : 124.01 Final Verse : First run at trip on AW Confidentiality : 125.89 Iron Out : First time at trip on AW Cry Alot Boy : 127.82 Traphalgar : 125.45 Sharpamax : 127.14 Prince Picasso : First time at trip on AW Awatuki : 128.54 Hallingdal : 127.82 Mafeking V Suzi Spends Mr Collingridge's Suzi Spends was a course and distance winner back in November this year when beating Rio Guru by one length when off a 2lb lower mark made a disappointing return to the All Weather at Kempton when finishing tenth of twelve runners over today's trip and i could not see any excuses that day as he was reasonably drawn in stall eleven.Only up 2lb today from his last win and should go well under Jimmy Quinn. Mafeking finished a good second to Poyle Meg at Kempton this month going down by a head off todays mark and gets in here with out a penalty.Was a winner at Lingfield over course and distance when beating Evident Pride off a 3lb higher mark and looks well in here this afternoon off his mark of 83. Mafeking : 2pt Win @ 4.4 Betfair Suzi Spends : 1/2pt e/w @ 4.6 Betfair (1-2-3)

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Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread Kempton 20.20 digibet Sunbury Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO plus) 7f Ceremonial Jade : 85.60 Aeroplane : 85.26 Capricorn Run : 85.44 Dohasa : 83.40 Dunelight : Dropping back in AW Trip Himalya : First run at trip on AW Know No Fear : 88.63 Sir Gerry : First run at trip on AW Stargazy : 88.26 Black Dahlia : 84.56 Carcinetto : 87.03 Dohasa V Black Dahlia John Glover's Black Dahlia comes here in good heart after a brace of wins at Wolverhampton and over course and distance when beating King's Colour by six lengths when off a mark of 75.Has been given a rise of 14lb for this listed event this evening and i am not convinced this will stop her in this event.Chris Catlin keeps the ride here. Ger Lyons Dohasa has been in good form since June this year notchig up three wins and two seconds and was a winner over tonights trip at Dundalk back in September.Is coming into this off the same Group 3 mark of 109 and looks the one to beat in this. Dohasa : 3pt Win @ 1.5 Betfair Black Dahlia : 1pt e/w @ 3.1 Betfair (1-2-3)

[Trendsman]

Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread Newbury (Sat) 15.05 William Hill King George Vi Chase (Class 1) (4YO plus) 3m This is a Grade 1 Chase which is open to horse's four years and above.The event was first run in February 1937, and it was named in honour of the new British monarch, King George. It was only run twice before World War 2 during which Kempton Park was closed for racing and used as a prisoner of war camp. The winner of the first, Southern Hero, remains the race's oldest ever winner. After the war the racecourse was re-opened, and the event returned in 1947 on a new date on Boxing Day. It was won the following year by Cotage rake, a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, and in 1949 the race was televised for the first time. The King George VI Chase is now the second most prestigious chase in England, surpassed only by the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Twelve horses have won it more than once, with Desert Orchid, one its most famous and popular winners, achieving four victories. The latest horse to have recorded multiple wins in the race is Kauto Star. Since 1937 the ages that have had most success are. 5yr old's 1 6yr old's 7 7yr old's 16 8yr old's 17 9yr old's 10 10 yr old's 4 11yr old's 2 12yr old's 1 Since 2000 two jockey's have dominated this race being Barry Geraghty and Ruby Walsh, Barry Geraghty winning back to back in 2004/5 with Kicking King and Ruby Walsh with Kauto Star in 2006-8. This has been a good race with returning winners which has happened on twelve occasions covering 29 years of this race Halloween : 1952 & 1954 Mandarin : 1957 & 1959 Pendil : 1972 & 1973 Captain Christy : 1974 & 1975 Silver Buck : 1979 & 1980 Wayward Lad : 1982-1983 & 1985 Desert Orchid : 1986 - 1989-1990 The Fellow : 1991 & 1992 One Man : 1995 & 1996 See More Business : 1997 & 1999 Kicking King : 2004 & 2005 Kauto Star : 2006-2008 Since 1997 Paul Nicholls has won six of the last twelve renewals with Kauto Star being the most successful.Other trainers that have had success in this are Henrietta Knight and Tom Taaffe winning this twice with the latter trainer going back to back with Kicking King. Since 1982 there have been fourteen winners from the last twenty seven renewals had been placed first or second at the Cheltenham Festival in the same year. Since 1986 sixteen of the last twenty three winners had won last time out. So what am i looking for. 1). 7yr or 8yr old's 2). Recent Winners 3). Trained by Paul Nicholls, Tom Taaffe or Henrietta Knight 4). Won or Placed at the Cheltenham Festival in same year 5). Won last time out 6). Won over 3m+ Chase in same year Using these trends lets see what we bring. Trend One Albertas Run Barbers Shop Deep Purple Imperial Commander Madison Du Berlais Master Medic Nacarat At an early stage this would see Kauto Star fall by the wayside. Trend Two Kauto Star Trend Three Kauto Star Racing Demon Trend Four Imperial Commander Kauto Star Our Vic Trend Five Deep Purple Kauto Star Trend Six Deep Purple Kauto Star Madison Du Berlais Nacarat Our Vic Best time over trip this year Albertas Run : 411.69 Barbers Shop : 1st run over trip this year Deep Purple : 1st run over trip this year Imperial Commander : 364.35 Kauto Star : 364.30 Madison Du Berlais : 376.35 Nacarat : 364.50 Ollie Magern : 361.70 Our Vic : 373.10 Racing Demon : 1st run over trip this year Roll Along : 387.20 Sandymac : 1st run over trip this year Tartak : 1st run over trip this year Four stand out in this, Kauto Star is attempting to achieve what Desert Orchid did and win the race for the fourth time. Imperial Commander retakes on Kauto Star from their Betfair Chase encounter when only a nose separated them. Tom George's Nacarat won over course and distance when winning the Grade 3 Racing Post Chase back in February and had Ollie Magern beaten that day by thirteen lengths when getting 2lb in the weights and that form looks solid. So whom i feel should be taken on board in this is two against Kauto Star Imperial Commander & Nacarat Imperial Commander : 2pt Win @ 6.8 Betfair Nacarat : 1pt e/w @ 16/1 Victor Chandler

[Trendsman]

Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread Kempton (Sat) 1.55 williamhill.com Feltham Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Seven go to post and the long waiting of Nicky Henderson's new star Long Run gets his first chance to shine on british soil. Since 1982 six year olds have dominated this race winning sixteen times and in all those runnings their has never been a 4 year old winner. Six Year Olds Fairoak Lad Minella Theatre Ogee Four Year Olds Long Run Since 1990 the top trainers of this event have been Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls with the former winning four times and the latter winning on three occasions and they are both represented here. Tchico Polos Long Run As Jockey's stand Tony McCoy just holds sway over Ruby Walsh in this since 1990 with 3 wins to 2 and both are riding here. Minella Theatre Tchico Polos Now i will lok at what the seven contenders have run over the distance and going in 2009. Fairoak Lad : 371.40 Minella Theatre : 370.20 Ogee : 342.20 Pocket Aces : 1st run over trip in 2009 Tazbar : 364.60 Tchico Polos :1st run over trip in 2009 Long Run : 1st run over trip in 2009 Ogee v Tazbar Keith Reverley's Tazbar made a pleasing chase debut when beating Logan's Run by eleven lengths at Musselburgh back in november on this ground and trip.But i feel will have to step up again here against some useful types to win this. Ogee is definetly one going the right way.A Grade 1 Hurdle winner when beating Comhla Ri Ciog in the Sefton at Aintree this year and has diverted to the bigger obstacles well since.Was last seen beating Shore Thing by a staggering 49 Lengths at Uttoxeter back in October. Has only been out of the first three once on his last thirteen starts recording five wins in the process. Ogee : 1pt Win @ SP Tazbar : 1/2pt e/w @ SP

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Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread 14.30 williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m The Christmas Hurdle is a Grade 1 National Hunt Hurdle Race in the United Kingdom open to horses which are four-years-old or above. It is run over a distance of 2 miles (3,219 metres) at Kempton Racecourse, and it takes place annually during the King George V1 Chase meeting on Boxing Day. There are eight hurdles to be jumped in the race.The race is the second leg of the Hurdling Triple Crown. Seven go to the post in this the 30th Anniversary of the race and the trends i feel that should be taken on board in this are. Five and six year olds have been the most successful over the years with five year old's holding sway winning on twelve occasions. Five Year Old's Binocular Cape Tribulation Pepe Simo Since 1997 ony three trainers really stand out in this event and this is Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O'Neil and Noel Meade with the latter trainer winning this three of the last five renewals and two of them have runners in this event. Binocular Go Native If i bring it closer since 2000 on the average age front five and six year olds have the best record in this with five year olds definetly holding sway Lets have a look at the runners best time in the conditions and distance only in 2009. Binocular : 246.40 Cape Tribulation : Dropping back in trip over hurdles Go Native : 236.00 Kings Revenge : 244.05 Pepe Simo : 235.80 Starluck : 234.70 Straw Bear : 252.49 Pepe Simo V Starluck A good race in prospect and with Paul Nicholls not winning this race in the past he seems to have a good looking contender here in Pepe Simo.Has won all three hurdles run this year including beating Any Given Sunday last time out at Haydock on soft ground by five lengths. has also run on good to soft ground which also resulted in a win. Is a big contender in this on the times Starluck was a winner at this venue last year when beating True Blue Saga by an easy eleven lengths He ran a good fourth to Zaynar in the Triumph Hurdle this year at the Cheltenham Festival then ran an excellent third to Walkon at Aintree. The good form has continued when running second to Mr Thriller going down by half a length and only a 2lb rise for that run must put him in here with a big chance. Starluck : 1.5pt Win @ 5/1 Betfred Pepe Simo : 1/2pt e/w @ 10/1 Williamhill

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Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread Chepstow (Mon) 14.10 Coral Welsh National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 5f 110y Since 1976 seven year old's have a huge bias in this race winning on twelve occasions with the closest being eight year old's with eight wins. 7yr old's Kornati Kid Operation Houdini Coe Silver By Nature 8yr old's The Tother One Nozic Dream Alliance Flintoff Old Benny So i will concentrate around the horse's above. Since 1976 only eight winners have won this carrying 11st and above and this would eliminate the following. The Tother One The favorable weight for the winner in this race has been 10st 9lb or less and this would bring in the contenders from above. Dream Alliance Flintoff Operation Houdini Coe Silver By Nature Old Benny Another hot trend is that the winner has finished in the first four last time out and has to be with in the last fifty days. Operation Houdini Coe Now the field has been slashed to just two. The winner must of had one or more chases runs this year. Operation Houdini Coe Another trend is that the winner has to of least won over 3m Operation Houdini Coe Another trend i find significant is that the winner has either won or been placed in a Graded contest. Operation Houdini Coe Has been placed in another Grand National or in the NH Chase at Cheltenham in 2009 Operation Houdini (Munster National) Operation Houdini : 2pt e/w @ 12/1

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Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread 14.45 Coral Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 110y I will take this on what time they have run this year over the distance. Bocamix : 256.54 Hector's House : 260.30 Kudu Country : 244.44 Me Voici : 253.75 Riptide : 246.94 Rougham : 249.60 Salontyre : 264.50 Sang Bleu : 1st run over trip (Won over 2m 2f) (Estimated time 244.00) Sang Bleu V Kudu Country Tom Tate's Kudu Country has won both hurdle starts on this kind of ground.He beat Riptide by five lengths at Haydock over this trip when in receipt of 6lb. has to concede that 6lb this afternoon and will find it tough to hold that form, but is going the right way this year. Won nicely last time out at Catterick when beating Stormy Weather by five lengths and on the form he has shown so far is a big contender here. Paul Nicholls french bred three year old Sang Bleu is another that is coming in to this in great form over in france and gets his first run on british shores. Has not won over this trip yet but he went about his business well at Auteuil on his hurdling debut when winning by two lengths on heavy ground.Will realish the ground and even though stepping back in trip here the time estimated shows he is a massive potential. Sang Bleu : 4pt Win @ 0.78 Betfair Kudu Country : 1/2pt each way @ SP

[Trendsman]

Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread Newbury 13.00 Bathwick Tyres Mandarin Graduation Chase (Class 2) 3m Best times recorded over trip and going in 2009 Big Fella Thanks : 369.42 Carruthers : 374.10 Niche Market : 422.39 Roll Along : 408.06 Massini's Maguire : 374.40 Big Fella Thanks V Carruthers Mark Bradstocks Carruthers surprisingly has been made favorite in this.He finished fifth on re-appearance to Ellerslie George at Wincanton over a furlong further going down by over fifteen lengths that day and the thirds The Package went on to win last month at Cheltenham. Has won a Grade 2 event this year at Ascot when beating Ballyfitz by a massive fifty four lengths on heavy ground and i am a little concerned here with the ground not going to be tacky enough this afternoon. Paul Nicholls Big Fella Thanks is having a return run after a five month lay off. A horse that stays for fun and was sixth this year in the Grand National and has been placed here over course and distance back in february when finishing ten lengths behind Nacarat in the Grade 3 Racing Post Chase. He beat Ungaro on seasons appearance back in January over today's trip and going by eleven lengths when ridden by Christian Williams. The question is that Ruby has only won once on the horse over hurdles last year and just might not get on with the horse as well as Sam Thomas and Christian Williams does. But here i am going to take a chance away from the top two and opt for inform Philip Hobbs contender in Massini's Maguire.On the time scale over the trip he is not that far off the top two. His last appearance here was when finishing second to Breedsbreeze in the Grade 1 Feltham last year going down by five lengths, has bags of ability and has not been seen for eight months, but does go well this time of year and goes well fresh. Massini's Maguire : 2pt Win @ 5/1 Betfred

[Trendsman]

Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread 14.40 Racing UK On Virgin 536 Long Walk Hurdle (Class 1) 3m 110y Big Bucks : 399.10 (Heavy) Diamond Harry : 366.25 (Good to Soft) Fair Along : 402.23 (Heavy) Karabak : 375.90 (Good to Soft) Kayf Aramis : 371.25 (Soft) Lough Derg : 406.30 (Heavy) Sweetheart : 382.25 (Soft) Whiteoak : 390.60 (Good to Soft) Six and seven year old's have had the most sucess in this event since 1977. 5yr old's Sweetheart 6yr olds Big Bucks Diamond Harry Karabak Whiteoak Apart from Francois Doumen who has won this four times in the last twelve renewals the other most successful trainers with runners in this are. Lough Derg Karabak Kayf Aramis Only two jockey's who have mounts in this have won this in previous years which are Tony McCoy and Tom Scudamore Lough Derg Karabak Only one horse since 1977 has returned to retain the crown which was Baracouda for Francois Doumen. Big Bucks V Fair Along I will see this race becoming a good clip with the likes of Lough Derg and Fair Along taking the lead here, the latter looks better suited by the heavy conditions on the times, but Big Bucks will stay all day in these conditions today and get up by what i feel will be a big margin with Fair Along hanging in on there for a place. Big Bucks : 5pt Win @ 0.52 Betfair Fair Along : 1pt e/w @ 28/1 Most Firms

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Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread Starting Bank : 100pts Bets Placed : Staked : 48.00 Winners : Seconds : Thirds : Win Only Bets : e/w Only Bets : Price Taken : Bookie : Returns : 25.00 Loss : -23.00 Profit : Closing Bank : 119.85pts

[Trendsman]

Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread Southwell 15.35 Bet Live In Play At totesport.com Handicap (Class 5) 6f Harlech Castle : 84.78 Madison Belle : 76.83 Final Salute : 1st run at trip at Southwell Cheap Thrills : 75.52 Onceuponatime : 73.88 (Wolverhampton) Gentle Guru : 72.62 (Kempton) Bo McGinty : 76.89 Rentless Genius : 75.50 Kyle : 73.29 (Wolverhampton) Danum Dancer : 75.30 Naomh Geileis : 76.49 Stanley Goodspeed : 74.43 Stanley Goodspeed V Danum Dancer Stanley Goodspeed finished fourth to Al Gillani over course and distance back in May this year when off a 19lb higher mark, has slump considerably here in the handicap and putting his best foot forward has claims. Neville Bycrofts Danum Dancer won here over course and distance two runs ago when beating Only A Game by one and a half lengths. still on a 6lb penalty but has ability for a shrewd trainer and Jimmy Quinn on board. Danum Dancer : 1.5pt Win @ 6/1 Betfair Stanley Goodspeed : 1/2pt e/w @ 12/1

[Trendsman]

Re: Trendsmans One and Only Thread Starting Bank : 100pts Bets Placed : Staked : 2.5 Winners : Seconds : Thirds : Win Only Bets : e/w Only Bets : Price Taken : Bookie : Returns : Loss : -2.50 Profit : Closing Bank : 117.35pts