profit on outlay

[greenhill]

read artical by professional backer harry findlay he said no one does better than 8% profit on outlay any one dissagree any comments hello everyone from new contributor greenhill

[BillyHills]

Re: profit on outlay :welcome Greenhill I tend to agree with the figure, Ive read most Pro's are happy with 5% and I know anyone who back tests systems etc..usuallly look for a ROI of 5% to get them interested in develpoing them further. Obviously this figure would only become realistic on many, many bets not just a handful over a short period.

[greenhill]

Re: profit on outlay

:welcome Greenhill I tend to agree with the figure, Ive read most Pro's are happy with 5% and I know anyone who back tests systems etc..usuallly look for a ROI of 5% to get them interested in develpoing them further. Obviously this figure would only become realistic on many, many bets not just a handful over a short period.

thank you bh my reason for asking is that my selections do considerably better and i was looking for a reliable bench mark against which to judge my self

[fintron]

Re: profit on outlay Welcome Greenhill. I remember there was bit of a debate on here several months ago regarding ROI's. Without wanting to drag that thread up again, as things started to get personal, it was said in there by a couple of people that 10 % is the target they are aiming for. I think you can find examples on PL on punters hitting more than 8 % but I suppose, in order for the figures to have some credence you need to see that they have been acheived over a long period, with a good number of bets struck, otherwise results can be skewed by good fortune and like any stats, you draw stronger conclusions the larger the sample size.

[greenhill]

Re: profit on outlay

Welcome Greenhill. I remember there was bit of a debate on here several months ago regarding ROI's. Without wanting to drag that thread up again, as things started to get personal, it was said in there by a couple of people that 10 % is the target they are aiming for. I think you can find examples on PL on punters hitting more than 8 % but I suppose, in order for the figures to have some credence you need to see that they have been acheived over a long period, with a good number of bets struck, otherwise results can be skewed by good fortune and like any stats, you draw stronger conclusions the larger the sample size.

fintron thanks for your replie why did things get personal ?

[robert99]

Re: profit on outlay How would HF know what everyone else's business is? He does not know. If you bet odds on and always at the short end then 8% max is possible/ probable. Once tax came in it finished the old timers who did this to scrape a living. If you only bet value bets then less bets, probably lower strike rate made but better ROI. ROI very much depends on how selective you are, your money management and if you use selection methodology rather than systems. I make 5-10 method and value betting selections per week, with an average seasonal win strike rate of 55% and average ROI of 160% and have done so for 20+ years. To get those bets I might have to discard 20-30 races. If you did not discard those races then you would likely head for a loss. In short, it is the whole betting/selection/value works.

[greenhill]

Re: profit on outlay robert99 be interested in your views on money management

[bowles10]

Re: profit on outlay no one can guarantee what they will make unless they have a reliable system which proven back testing to show a profit a forecast is just what it is, i forecast i want to make 10% profit this year on the flat, will i? i dont know, i am trying but i cant guarantee it greenhill, yo may be showing better than 10%, some of us have done this season but there are highs & lows in everyones betting strategy GL with your quest

[robert99]

Re: profit on outlay

robert99 be interested in your views on money management

In brief: It is essential to have a money management process. It should suit your betting temperament. It should suit your selection method and bet frequency. It should not determine bets based on previous bet results. It should take into account value. Every bet should maximise edge. You have to allow some flexibility to adjust to what bets are available - not work on theoretical bets which cannot be matched in full or at all.

[billy the punter]

Re: profit on outlay I'd say a massive majority of pros make less than 8%, however it's ridiculous to say that no one can hit higher.

[Kithanga]

Re: profit on outlay

I'd say a massive majority of pros make less than 8%' date=' however it's ridiculous to say that no one can hit higher.[/quote'] Did you really mean to say less than 8%? Not being funny but that sounds really small and like it could easily be wiped out with a little bad luck. You'd need a very large sample to even out the bad runs. I'm only asking because it's something I struggle with from time to time. The question I always face is...Do I go only for the ones I know are outstanding value and suffer long gaps and few bets in a season. Or do I take more risks and go far a small % but (in theory) higher cash amount. It seems if I focus on the smaller number of bets (as this year - only 94 so far) I feel I have much more control and am more confident of a successful season and it seems to work. When I try to branch out and have more bets it feels very much more risky as the value is less obvious and I don't feel in control any more. It feels like I'm just playing a pure maths game in that instance not really caring whether any individual animal wins or not just hoping that I've been correct with the value and it turns out ok at season end. For the record I think 20% is achievable especially on a small sample and tight control. Fintron's doing exceptionally well with his thread hitting about this % but with many more bets; a real class performance in my book. K

[billy the punter]

Re: profit on outlay

Did you really mean to say less than 8%? Not being funny but that sounds really small and like it could easily be wiped out with a little bad luck. You'd need a very large sample to even out the bad runs. I'm only asking because it's something I struggle with from time to time. The question I always face is...Do I go only for the ones I know are outstanding value and suffer long gaps and few bets in a season. Or do I take more risks and go far a small % but (in theory) higher cash amount. It seems if I focus on the smaller number of bets (as this year - only 94 so far) I feel I have much more control and am more confident of a successful season and it seems to work. When I try to branch out and have more bets it feels very much more risky as the value is less obvious and I don't feel in control any more. It feels like I'm just playing a pure maths game in that instance not really caring whether any individual animal wins or not just hoping that I've been correct with the value and it turns out ok at season end. For the record I think 20% is achievable especially on a small sample and tight control. Fintron's doing exceptionally well with his thread hitting about this % but with many more bets; a real class performance in my book. K

Yep I meant to say less than 8%. The majority of pro gamblers have a year ROI of less than 8%. 8% of turnover can be a huge amount. I don't wanna talk money but even a small pro gambler can turn over £1,000,000 a year. My turnover is huge for example, I have many bets. My ROI this month is massive, but that is just this month, a yield plummets very quickly which is why 10% is a massive achievement for example. For the record I think high yields are possible.

[Kithanga]

Re: profit on outlay

Yep I meant to say less than 8%. The majority of pro gamblers have a year ROI of less than 8%. 8% of turnover can be a huge amount. I don't wanna talk money but even a small pro gambler can turn over £1,000,000 a year. My turnover is huge for example, I have many bets. My ROI this month is massive, but that is just this month, a yield plummets very quickly which is why 10% is a massive achievement for example. For the record I think high yields are possible.

Thanks, that's really interesting for me. I agree with the high yields being possible as I get them myself. If I play tight, like now, I can get 30%+ (over 80% this year which is amazing but is down to a few more big priced animals than normal coming in). If I play loose it drops to around 5-10%. It's when it drops to around 5% or less over a sustained period that it gets scary for me and I tend to reign back. I actually think it's a bit of a blocker for me at the moment (a bit of a brick wall) but probably an understandable one and maybe all part of development as a punter. I've gone from losing for a few years to level for a few years, a bit up for a few and more recently since about 2000 comfortably winning. It's almost as if I don't want to take a risk of a stepping backwards and losing again. I probably need to just bite the bullet and go for a more open approach and maintain it and not be so scared of losing that I end up not winning as much as I could. I've been thinking about it for a while and discussing it with a mate. I probably need to broaden my bets and turnover. It is scary though as I'm betting fairly hefty amounts (in comparison to what I earn) and will probably need to reduce the stakes and build things back up. It's a question of whether I take the gamble and give up a guaranteed good win (and percentage) over a year for a lower percentage but (hopefully) higher cash amount. Did you go through anything similar (if you don't mind me asking)? Or where you straight into a large number of bets from the off. K

[Kithanga]

Re: profit on outlay The Racing Post are carrying an advert today for their Pricewise Extra service that's returned a 45% profit on outlay from 18th Feb to the end of August. It's quoted as 180.5 points profit against 402 points outlay. Given that they've also had quite a few good winners in September that looks to be continuing as well. That would appear to suggest that the best approach is to have less bets (they tend to have only 1 or two a day) and to always go for the ones that offer the greatest value on the day. Interesting......... thoughts?

[fintron]

Re: profit on outlay 45 % is a great figure, although is there any reason why the results start in February? Seems a wierd point to start from considering the turf season started in March. Did they have a bumper month in Feb or something?

[billy the punter]

Re: profit on outlay 45%? There is also an advert in there for a tipster quoting 64% profit. Good looking fella he is too. (sorry)

[Kithanga]

Re: profit on outlay No Fin, it's just that they only started the service in Feb, so that's all their bets included. Lol Billy. Assume you mean the Prophet add. It's good, but only over 10 days so don't really know what the figures would be over the same timeframe as the pricewise ones. Reminds me of the adds I used to have in the 'Life' and the Post when I was running my tipping line in the 90's! Oh, those were the days.......

[chris34]

Re: profit on outlay Sorry havnt replied to this thread before but is something that is very new to me and some interesting points being made, since I have started keeping better records just recently when my betting has stepped up a gear for one reason or another, I am extremely happy with my % profit which currently stands at about 18.5% now I know this is no true reflection as I have had a brilliant month this month but yet an awful one last month and like many on here my aim would be to hit 10% continuesly and maybe set the bar higher to keep myself sharp as and when I feel right. As far as amount of bets I just feel it depends on your strategy and way you bet for me personally recently I have plenty of small bets and do well out of this services like pricewise do well on a few big prices and good for them it all depends on what your happy with.

[Sgt.Sunshine]

Re: profit on outlay It is a fascinating topic - the idea that a pro would get less than 10% ROI seems a bit crazy to me. I've been full time for over 3 years now and my ROI on the horses started off at around 30% and since March this year has been over 40% (is that long term enogh though??). It's always hard to interpret claims - are the ROIs to SP or to advised OPs? It's all very well Hugh Taylor or Pricewise claiming certain yields, but you can only get a few quid on at bookies at the advised prices if you are a follower. My feeling is that a pro punter's quoted long term ROI is very much related to stake size - higher ROIs are possible with juicy OPs, but you cannot get a large stake; low ROIs are a result of having to stake large near the off when the market has matured and there is naturally less value. Because I bet on 20+ horses a day I can still get early prices at bookies at a large enough stake to generate required profit.

[billy the punter]

Re: profit on outlay

No Fin, it's just that they only started the service in Feb, so that's all their bets included. Lol Billy. Assume you mean the Prophet add. It's good, but only over 10 days so don't really know what the figures would be over the same timeframe as the pricewise ones. Reminds me of the adds I used to have in the 'Life' and the Post when I was running my tipping line in the 90's! Oh, those were the days.......

A tipster talks about recent results because they are relevant. Simple as. It does not necessarily mean he/she was useless up to that point. I would be more suspicious if the figures were from a exact date in the past ie July figures, September 2008 figures etc Cherry picking previous times usually means poor form before or since. If a tipster is constantly talking recent results, he is constantly in-form, of close to it. :ok

[Kithanga]

Re: profit on outlay Yes, agreed Billy. I also found that advertising short term success upped the calls. The biggest effect was from the 'Maximum bet today' advert. Big call volumes. Strangly though, the call volumes dropped the next day after some pretty big winning days. Mad really, never could get my head around what it was the callers were after. Just seemed so random.

[robert99]

Re: profit on outlay It is sometimes hard to fathom the point of posting on these type of forums ... Is it becoming a pointless dialogue of the deaf? Greenhill started the thread, also expresses an interest in money management, I reply, then greenhill disappears... I post: "ROI very much depends on how selective you are, your money management and if you use selection methodology rather than systems. I make 5-10 method and value betting selections per week, with an average seasonal win strike rate of 55% and average ROI of 160% and have done so for 20+ years. To get those bets I might have to discard 20-30 races. If you did not discard those races then you would likely head for a loss. In short, it is the whole betting/selection/value works. " kithanga later posts a very relevant question but as if I had not posted on that very same topic earlier: "I'm only asking because it's something I struggle with from time to time. The question I always face is...Do I go only for the ones I know are outstanding value and suffer long gaps and few bets in a season. Or do I take more risks and go far a small % but (in theory) higher cash amount. It seems if I focus on the smaller number of bets (as this year - only 94 so far) I feel I have much more control and am more confident of a successful season and it seems to work."

[fintron]

Re: profit on outlay I don't think any harm was done in repeating the question to be honest, it is something of a dilemma to many of us, whether to be tight with the purse and stick solely to strong/high value fancies, or to play more regularly. As has already been said in the thread, it is all down to the individual. Robert, if you are hitting 160 % ROI constantly for over 20 years, playing 5-10 races a week then that clearly suits you so there is no reason for you to change if you are happy with that. If it ain't broke as they say.... But for others, like me, who are just starting out, we don't know what our optimum strategy is and for us it may well be a case of more bets = more profit even if that isn't the case for others. Although yield is important it is not the be all and end all and profit is just as important. At the end of the day, it is profit off which a professional is able to live isn't it, not yield.... Compare two punters: Prudent punter a) 'Action junkie' punter b) Punter a) only bets when his strong fancies run. He has 50 bets over the course of the season and turns over £25,000 over the course of the season with a yield of 20 % - which most would regard as a good yield. His profit for the season is £5k. Punter b) bets more regularly, on bets other than his main fancies. He turns over £500,000 over the course of the season with a yield of 5 %. His profit is £25k. I have perhaps gone to the extremes there comparing two punters who have 50 vs 1000 bets each a season (averaging £500 each) but I think you get the general picture, that a lower yield isn't a disaster, and the profit is influenced by total money outlaid too.

[robert99]

Re: profit on outlay As I said the question was "very relevant" but that was not what I was getting at, at all. To rephrase: if the point of a forum is to take an issue and each post /poster contributes to that issue so that some helpful conclusion is reached then that seems what people might actually want. Please do not misunderstand that I am not getting at anyone here as it seems to happen most everywhere these days but there are some forums where people do not disappear halfway and do read / acknowledge /disagree /comprehend the earlier posts before replying. If posts get ignored then people who can and are willing to help soon stop posting completely. Hopefully, this is understood as a constructive suggestion.

[BillyHills]

Re: profit on outlay Robert, Greenhills stay at the PL wasnt very long, in fact extremely short, hence the reason he hasnt replied, i know what you mean though, does my head in when people ask for help and never return to the thread. Such is forums these days. Your input is appreciated mate beleive me.

[chris34]

Re: profit on outlay Yeah defenetily this thread has been a brilliant discussion even if the original poster is no longer with us!

[Kithanga]

Re: profit on outlay

Did you really mean to say less than 8%? Not being funny but that sounds really small and like it could easily be wiped out with a little bad luck. You'd need a very large sample to even out the bad runs. I'm only asking because it's something I struggle with from time to time. The question I always face is...Do I go only for the ones I know are outstanding value and suffer long gaps and few bets in a season. Or do I take more risks and go far a small % but (in theory) higher cash amount. It seems if I focus on the smaller number of bets (as this year - only 94 so far) I feel I have much more control and am more confident of a successful season and it seems to work. When I try to branch out and have more bets it feels very much more risky as the value is less obvious and I don't feel in control any more. It feels like I'm just playing a pure maths game in that instance not really caring whether any individual animal wins or not just hoping that I've been correct with the value and it turns out ok at season end. For the record I think 20% is achievable especially on a small sample and tight control. Fintron's doing exceptionally well with his thread hitting about this % but with many more bets; a real class performance in my book. K

Robert, You've taken my 'question' out of context. I've repeated the whole of my post above and you'll see that my question was to Billy The Punter about whether he'd mistyped when quoting less than 8% as I was surprised given my current profit level and the one the you quoted earlier in the thread which I had read and taken in. The paragraph you quoted was me supporting the original poster by agreeing that it's a question I often ask myself followed by my view of what I think is achievable; not a direct question to you or anyone else. Basically, you misunderstood the intention of my post. And, whilst I welcome constructive feedback and suggestions too, I must say that I didn't like the tone of those first couple of sentences. Hope that's cleared it up and no hard feelings. K

[robert99]

Re: profit on outlay

Robert, You've taken my 'question' out of context. I've repeated the whole of my post above and you'll see that my question was to Billy The Punter about whether he'd mistyped when quoting less than 8% as I was surprised given my current profit level and the one the you quoted earlier in the thread which I had read and taken in. The paragraph you quoted was me supporting the original poster by agreeing that it's a question I often ask myself followed by my view of what I think is achievable; not a direct question to you or anyone else. Basically, you misunderstood the intention of my post. And, whilst I welcome constructive feedback and suggestions too, I must say that I didn't like the tone of those first couple of sentences. Hope that's cleared it up and no hard feelings. K

K - Absolutely no hard feelings either felt or intended on this. You have responded to the point and that is absolutely right. My post was intended as an absolutely general point , not a personal comment, about improving forum discussion. I used this thread only as an example - always a tricky move. If we want PL to continue to be the "World's Best Betting Forum" then IMHO we may all need to raise our game a bit. If things were wholly bad, then we would not be reading this. :ok