Jonesy Knows Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Sorry Guys I haven't been around the ATR thread much lately however I do prefer the NH season and things have been rather busy sorting the move. I thought I'd have a few bets today on the horses and due to there being 7 meetings in the UK and 2 in Ireland there has to be plenty of stats that could help in pointing out value. Here is a for instance there is a trainer with a stat of 8 winners from 11 runners in chase races at a meeting today who only sends the one horse for a chase race!!! That's an amazing 73% strike rate in the last 5 years!:loon Chepstow - Going: good after a dry night- Weather Forecast: some drizzle from 7am until about 10am then a dry day with sunny intervals - Top Temp 21C. Draw: From 2005 to 2008 there have been 60 races between 5 to 7 Furlongs with the draw splits thus: Top "third" of the draw: 21.7% (win), 27.2% (placed) Middle "third" of the draw: 35% (win), 34.4% (placed) Bottom "third" of the draw: 43.3% (win), 38.3% (placed) On the round course there is no draw bias. TOP TRAINER WINS-RIDES P D Evans 10–110 9% -17.39 R Hannon 10–60 17% -17.12 R A Harris 7–106 7% -33.00 B Palling 7–73 10% +47.67 B R Millman 7–60 12% -18.00 A W Carroll 6–76 8% -29.17 J S Moore 6–23 26% +31.00 J M Bradley 4–116 3% -85.50 A B Haynes 4–32 13% +10.50 R M Beckett 4–29 14% +2.83 J L Spearing 4–16 25% +7.75 A King 4–14 29% +2.27 M S Saunders 3–19 16% +34.57 J H M Gosden 3–7 43% -0.59 John Gosden has to be the one trainer you'd want to be on the right side of here with a 43% strike rate - 2 from 5 (40%) 3 yr olds - 1 from 2 (50%) 4 yr olds. Interesting to note that he has never ran a 2 yr old here in the last 5 years and today will be the first time he runs 2 of them with his main jockey Jimmy Fortune who plumps to come here for the 2 rides for Gosden! Jimmy Fortune has only ever ridden here once before in the last 5 years and the horse won!!! 1 from 1 - (100%). 2.05 - Thousandkissesdeep (2 yr old) 2.40 - Comradeship (2 yr old) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Cartmel - Going - The course has passed a 7.30 am inspection with the going officially Heavy, Soft in places. Weather Forecast - Cloudy day - Top Temp 20C. TOP TRAINER WINS-RIDES D McCain Jnr 8–27 30% +9.32 R Ford 8–27 30% +22.25 P Monteith 7–18 39% +51.50 P Bowen 6–18 33% +4.86 M C Chapman 5–47 11% -9.25 Mrs S J Smith 5–29 17% -7.02 G M Moore 3–15 20% +6.23 James Moffatt 2–52 4% -40.00 R C Guest 2–42 5% -18.50 N Wilson 2–21 10% -11.00 A Sadik 2–11 18% +7.50 Peter Bowen again is a trainer to watch out for here, again he has just the one horse here in the handicap chase. He has a 29% strike rate for chasers here 2 from 7: 3.30 - Midnight Gold GM Moore has a 3 from 12 (25%) strike rate here for his hurdlers and sends just the one horse here: 2.20 - Bun Penny Sue Smith has a decent strike rate for hurdlers here 5 from 15 (33%) and has one hurdler here: 5.15 - Imtihan ________________________________________________________ Downpatrick - Going - Good - Weather Forecast - Heavy Showers - Tope Temp 18C. Draw: No bias Flat:TOP TRAINER WINS-RIDES Peter Casey 3–8 38% +23.00 M J Grassick 2–15 13% -8.17 Mervyn Torrens 2–8 25% +14.00 John C McConnell 1–9 11% +4.00 Ms Joanna Morgan 1–9 11% -5.75 D K Weld 1–8 13% -6.60 Gordon Elliott 1–6 17% +7.00 Paul Nolan 1–5 20% +3.50 Peter Casey has to be respected here with his horses 4+ yr olds - 3 from 7 (43%) strike rate - he sends just the one today: 5.15 - Inis Ceithleann Mervynn Torrensalso runs one in the same race and deserves a mention due to 2 from 8 (25%) strike rate for 4+ yr olds at the track: 5.15 - Arondo (Reserve at the moment but may get in if there are more non runners) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Epsom - Going - Good to Firm Weather Forecast - Warm Sunny Day - Top Temp 23C Draw: There have only been 9 handicaps with 10+ runners over 5f in the past four seasons and hence it is difficult to come to any concrete draw conclusions. Traditionally a higher draw has been preferred, but the recent stats indicate there is not much in it. The same limited data sample occurs over 6f, but low draws seem to have an edge here, which again has traditionally been the case. Over 7f low to middle draws hold sway, but there seems to be little in the draw at distances of 1m114yds or more. TOP TRAINER WINS-RIDES R Hannon 4–47 9% -23.00 A M Balding 4–16 25% +15.50 M Johnston 3–37 8% -24.80 M R Channon 3–33 9% -12.50 Saeed Bin Suroor 3–15 20% -3.54 P M Phelan 3–15 20% +0.50 P D Evans 3–8 38% +5.00 S Dow 2–19 11% -7.00 G L Moore 2–15 13% -3.00 H R A Cecil 2–10 20% +8.50 Andrew Balding has a decent strike rate for his older horses here 4+ yr olds 2 from 9 (22%) and runs one that fits the bill: 3.10 - Siren's Gift Saeed Bin Suroor sends just the one horse here and he has a 1 from 2 (50%) strike rate for his 2 yr olds here: 2.00 - Five Cents PM Phelan hasa 3 from 8 (38%) strike rate for his 4+ yr olds and has 2 in the same race: 4.20 - Epsom Salts & Dani's Girl PD Evans has a 2 from 6 (33%) strike rate for his 4+ yr olds and has also in the above race for his only horse at the meeting: 4.20 - Penang Cinta Henry Cecilhas a 2 from 8 (25%)strike rate here for his 3 yr olds and sends just the one today: 3.45 - Tranquil Tiger _________________________________________________________ Galway - Going - Heavy - Weather Forecast - Heavy rain - Top Temp 16C Draw: There are a good number of races over 7f over a season and the draw stats point to a middle to high draw bias. In 10+ runner handicaps the top five stalls have provided 13 wins compared with 5 wins for the bottom five stalls. The last handicap race of 2008 the CCTV Venue Control Handicap saw the top three draws come 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Over 1m, the stats seem to suggest the bias evens out, however the 1m4f trip has seen low draws really struggle in recent years. Whether this is simply an anomaly or not it is difficult to say. There is no draw bias over 1m6f and further. TOP TRAINER WINS-RIDES D K Weld 21–75 28% +23.64 A P O´Brien 10–28 36% +7.12 John M Oxx 7–23 30% +28.50 P A Fahy 5–22 23% +37.25 T J O´Mara 4–36 11% +3.00 H Rogers 3–31 10% +19.00 Kevin Prendergast 3–30 10% -5.50 J S Bolger 3–30 10% -8.50 David Marnane 3–24 13% +9.50 Mrs John Harrington 2–28 7% -5.00 Thomas Cleary 2–12 17% +11.00 Dermot Weld is the top trainer here and has to be respected whatever he runs. He has 6 from 12 (50%) strike rate for his 2 yr olds and runs: 4.55 - Sansibar 5.55 - Simon Bolivar He also has a 10 from 38 (26%) strike rate for 3 yr olds and runs: 6.55 - Ghimaar 7.55 - Commited Spirit John Oxx has a great strike rate for his 3 yr olds here 6 from 16 (38%) and runs just the one horse here: 6.55 - Alyfa PA Fahyhas to be respected here with his older horses 4+ yr olds having a 5 from 18 (28%) strike rateandruns just the one horse here: 6.25 - Hampshire ________________________________________________________________ Huntingdon - Going - Good to Firm, Firm in places Weather Forecast - Very warm sunny day - Top Temp 25C TOP TRAINER WINS-RIDES B G Powell 15–87 17% +2.40 Jonjo O´Neill 14–94 15% -20.83 C J Mann 10–31 32% +11.45 N A Twiston-Davies 9–50 18% +24.29 D E Cantillon 9–33 27% +29.31 C E Longsdon 6–27 22% -1.50 D E Pipe 5–37 14% -14.50 Jim Best 4–35 11% -0.75 Evan Williams 4–31 13% +5.40 P Bowen 4–25 16% -9.92 R Lee 4–23 17% +38.13 DE Cantillon staggering stat here for his chasers in the last 5 years he has 8 from 11 (73%) strike rate :eek and has just the one horse: 2.45 - Joshua CE Longsdon also has a decent strike rate for his chasers here 4 from 12 (33%) and runs one in the same above race: 2.45 - Bisley ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Newcastle - Going & Weather Forecast - The going is good to firm, firm in places in the last 3 furlongs after 2.5mm of rain overnight. The forecast is mild and windy with rain arriving this evening. Top Temp 20C Draw: Over 5f it pays to be drawn either very high or very low. The size of the field can be crucial as in smaller fields they tend not to split into two groups. Over 6f however, you would usually be happier drawn high even in big fields. The one problem with Newcastle is that strong biases do occur, but not all the time. Having said that, it would have paid dividends perming the three highest draws in 5f/6f handicaps of 10 or more runners. From 2005 to 2008 this bet would have yielded a profit of £210.07 (ROI +71.5%) to 6 x £1 perms in each qualifying race. Over 7f there is an advantage to be being drawn very high. Indeed backing the highest drawn horse “blind” in all 10+ runner handicaps from 2005 to 2008 would have yielded a profit of £31.50 (ROI +101.6%). 1m races are round on both the straight and the round course. On the straight course high draws have a slight edge, while there is no bias over the round 1m. There is also now draw bias at longer distances on the round course. TOP TRAINER WINS-RIDES R A Fahey 23–124 19% +6.70 M Dods 16–107 15% +21.10 T D Easterby 13–129 10% -9.67 M Johnston 11–74 15% -43.88 T D Barron 8–81 10% -19.75 K A Ryan 8–65 12% -15.75 M R Channon 8–50 16% +19.65 P T Midgley 8–47 17% +17.38 B Ellison 7–80 9% -40.00 B Smart 6–64 9% -21.65 J S Goldie 5–53 9% -1.50 J J Quinn 5–51 10% +5.00 W J Haggas 4–10 40% +7.74 Mrs L Stubbs 3–17 18% +3.00 C W Fairhurst 2–18 11% -6.00 E J Alston 2–17 12% +0.00 G A Harker 2–15 13% -10.27 Ollie Pears 2–8 25% -2.65 Richard Fahey has a 8 from 25 (32%) strike rate for his 2 yr olds here and runs just the one: 4.00 - Aquarian Spirit Paul Midgely has a 5 from 18 (28%) strike rate for his 4+ yr olds here and runs just the one who fits the category: 5.45 - Nomoreblondes Willie Haggas has a 2 from 2 (100%) :eek strike rate for his 2 yr olds here and runs just the one horse at the meeting fitting the category: 4.00 - Lethal Combination Ollie Pearshas 1 from 2 (50%) :eek strike rate with his older horses here 4+ yr olds and has 2 running fitting that category: 2.50 - Rowan Lodge 5.45 - Joyeaux ________________________________________________________________ Warwick - Going & Weather Forecast - After 0.5mm of rain overnight, the going remains good, good to firm in places. Top Temp 22C Draw: Low draws have the advantage over 5f, 5½f and 6f, with the bias seemingly stronger over 6. Of the fifteen 10+ runner handicaps over 6f since 2005, 11 were won by horses from the bottom third of the draw. Over 7f and 1m low draws continue to hold the advantage, and draw 1 has a particular good record in 10+ runner handicaps (8 wins from 44). Over 1m3f the low draw bias seems very strong and again draw 1 has proved very successful with 7 wins from 27 in 10+ runner handicaps. TOP TRAINER WINS-RIDES R Hannon 8–44 18% +12.95 R Hollinshead 7–48 15% +4.00 B W Hills 6–32 19% -8.50 W J Haggas 6–23 26% -6.04 P D Evans 5–42 12% -6.75 R M Beckett 5–31 16% +2.38 P W Hiatt 5–19 26% +28.50 P W Chapple-Hyam 5–18 28% -2.81 E S McMahon 5–17 29% +11.13 Tom Dascombe 5–13 38% +21.00 W M Brisbourne 4–67 6% -42.77 B J Meehan 4–29 14% -3.40 J R Fanshawe 4–22 18% +20.50 Sir Michael Stoute 4–17 24% +0.70 M A Jarvis 4–10 40% +2.40 J M Bradley 3–38 8% -27.38 Ian Williams 3–26 12% +5.50 Eve Johnson Houghton 3–25 12% -5.50 W S Kittow 3–24 13% -3.25 R J Price 3–23 13% +12.00 S Kirk 3–14 21% +1.50 R Charlton 3–12 25% -2.59 P R Webber 3–10 30% +13.50 Richard Hannon has a 2 from 7 (29%) strike rate here for older horses 4+ yr olds and has one running today fitting the category: 4.15 - Cyflymder Willie Haggas has a 6 from 12 (50%) :eek strike rate for his 3 yr olds here and has one that fits the bill: 5.25 - Alhaque Ralph Becketthas a 2 from 8 (25%) strike rate for his 2 yr olds here and runs just the one horse at the meeting that fits the bill: 3.05 - Themanforacrisis PW Hiatt has a 5 from 18 (28%) strike rate for his older horses here 4 + yr olds and runs just the one horse at the meeting which fits the bill: 5.25 - Fairplaytomyself Peter Chapple Hyam has a 2 from 7 (29%) strike rate for his 2 yr olds here and runs just the one horse at the meeting and it fits the bill: 5.25 - Country Road ES McMahon has a 4 from 8 (50%) :eek strike rate for his 2 yr olds here and runs just the one horse at the meeting and it fits the bill: 2.30 - Look Who's Next Tom Dascombe has a 4 from 8 (50%) :eek strike rate for his 2 yr olds here and runs just the 2 horses both in 2 yr old races: 3.05 - Valkov 3.40 - Sun Dream James Fanshawe has a 3 from 9 (33%) strike rate for his older horses 4+yr olds here and runs just the one horse at the meeting which fits the bill: 4.50 - Alvee Sir Michael Stoute has a 2 from 5 (40%) :eek strike rate with his 2 yr olds here and has one that fits the bill: 3.40 - King's Parade Michael Jarvis has a staggering 3 from 4 (75%) :eek strike rate for his 3 yr olds here and has one that fits the bill: 5.25 - Mathaaq Roger Charlton has a 3 from 11 (27%) strike rate for his 3 yr olds here and runs just the one horse here at this meeting and nowhere else and it fits the bill! and his last 2 horses that have ran have won!!! 5.55 - Souter Point ________________________________________________________________ Ripon - Going & Weather Forecast - With 1.5mm of rain in the last 15 hours, the going has been changed to good (from good to firm in places). Top Temp 20C Draw: Over 5 and 6f in very big fields it normally pays to be drawn close to either rail, although unusually in 2008 middle draws more than held their own. The usual rule of thumb is that on good to firm ground you want to be drawn low, while on good to soft or softer you want to be drawn high. The big sprint at the course is the 6f Great St Wilfrid and twice in the past four years very high draws have totally dominated. In 2007 the first five horses home were drawn 22, 20, 9, 21 and 17; in 2005 the first five home were drawn 23, 20, 22, 17 and 16. In 2008, six of the first seven home raced far side (high) although the very highest draws did not actually dominate on this occasion. Over 1m high draws have a decent advantage especially in big fields. There is no draw bias at longer distances. TOP TRAINER WINS-RIDES K A Ryan 18–89 20% +25.28 R A Fahey 11–116 9% -43.38 T D Easterby 10–166 6% -105.63 D Nicholls 10–85 12% +2.50 M Johnston 9–83 11% -43.32 M R Channon 9–56 16% -15.65 B W Hills 7–21 33% +13.73 M A Jarvis 6–15 40% +3.73 P T Midgley 5–72 7% -3.50 J J Quinn 5–61 8% -31.50 T D Barron 5–41 12% -5.88 M Brittain 4–79 5% -17.50 M W Easterby 4–55 7% +1.25 M Dods 4–36 11% -10.50 P C Haslam 4–24 17% +13.50 D Carroll 4–23 17% -7.02 M L W Bell 4–21 19% -11.42 J D Bethell 3–36 8% -22.50 B Smart 3–33 9% -2.67 H R A Cecil 3–8 38% +3.50 Mick Channon has a 7 from 23 (30%) strike rate for his 2 yr olds here and sends just the one horse who fits the bill: 2.25 - Just The Tonic Michael Jarvis has a 4 from 11 (36%) strike rate here with his 3 yr old runners and has just the one horse at the meeting which fits the bill: 3.00 - My Verse Henry Cecil has a 2 from 6 (33%) strike rate with his 3 yr olds here and has just the one horse at the meeting that fits the bill: 4.45 - Invisible Isle Anyhow there's my contribution for the day and I'm hoping it provides a fair few decent winners :ok :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers thanks for this, excellent stuff. I'm going to Ripon today and have only studied the handicaps. Mowgli has given me a tip in the listed race, and your info will be useful for the other races, cheers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted August 31, 2009 Author Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers No probs Fin :ok Good luck with your picks :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers Nice work Jonesy!!! Good luck ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted August 31, 2009 Author Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers That's 9 from 12 chase winners at Huntingdon now for DE Cantillon!!! Joshua obliges got 6/1 this morning wins at 4/1 :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers Well done Jonesy and thanks, took the 6/1 when it was available. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted August 31, 2009 Author Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers Quick update: My Verse wins at 5/2 could have got 3/1 earlier :clap Siren's Gift win at 9/2 could have got 6/1 earlier :clap and the big fella - Joshua wins at 4/1 could have got 6/1 earlier :ok:clap:cow Bun Penny was around 22/1 was going like a good'un until clouting the 2nd last and lost all momentum! :wall Five Cents finishes 3rd 11/1 Comradeship finishes 2nd at 5/1 Look whos next finishes 2nd 9/2 Valkov finishes 4th just out the places at 20/1 Rowan Lodge 3rd 3/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers Here is a for instance there is a trainer with a stat of 8 winners from 11 runners in chase races at a meeting today who only sends the one horse for a chase race!!! That's an amazing 73% strike rate in the last 5 years!:loon Hey Jonesy, when I started reading your post I read your first stat above and without reading any further, set off to find the trainer in question. I settled on C Mann who has 8 winners / 6 placed from his last twenty runners here and duly placed a bet on Red Admiral (very similar stats and C Mann's only runner today too). I then read through your post proper, only to find you had included the trainer and horse further down, ( Joshua @ 6/1). So thanks again Jonesy. I've had two winners as a result.:nana One through reading the post and the second by mistake.:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seaside Donkey Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers Just joined, and in with a nice winner thanks to you Jonesy... Mathaaq at Warwick. Many thanks for all that research. :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy Knows Posted August 31, 2009 Author Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers Cheers fellas glad I could help :ok Update: 2.40 - Comradeship (2 yr old) - 2nd 5/1 5.15 - Inis Ceithleann - 3rd 15/2 3.10 - Siren's Gift - 1st 9/2 ;) 2.00 - Five Cents - 3rd 11/1 4.20 - Epsom Salts - 3rd 3/1 6.55 - Alyfa - 1st 11/4 ;) 2.45 - Joshua - 1st 4/1 ;) 4.00 - Aquarian Spirit - 3rd 11/4 5.45 - Nomoreblondes - 1st 10/1 ;) 2.50 - Rowan Lodge - 3rd 3/1 2.30 - Look Who's Next - 2nd 9/2 3.40 - King's Parade - 11/8 5.25 - Mathaaq - 1st 11/4 ;) 5.55 - Souter Point - 2nd 11/4 2.25 - Just The Tonic -2nd 5/1 3.00 - My Verse - 1st 5/2 ;) Not a bad day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers Well done Jonesy...........obviously you put a lot of work into that ! Good to see it was rewarded ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers Impressive stuff :clap Your hard work was rewarded Jonesy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers I backed the Jarvis winner at Ripon, got 5/2 after reading this, cheers Jonesy :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers Good day jonesy well done!! I tell ya what watch that Five Cents won, was awful out of the stalls gave the field nearly 12ls at one point but when the penny dropped ran on extremely impressively im not usually a maiden punter but wouldnt mind some on that next time out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteg40 Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers Nice Jonesy:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Great results :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky-15 Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers :clapGreat results jonesy, excellent write ups must av took a while!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Re: Bank Holiday Racing Pointers Brilliant work mate, glad all that time and effort paid off for you with some great priced winners and some nice places as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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