Carlisle 19th August

[ken678]

Carlisle: 3:15 Ducal Regancy Duke 100/1 5f ploughing up the hill at Carlisle will take some getting today and I would NOT be backing ANY 5f specilaists in any races there today. The fav here has an obvious chance but I am attracted to the fact that this (pretty poor it must be said) horse has been running over much further. By no means a confident pick but in all the circs 100/1 in a claimer in the mud at Carlise looks over generous to me

[RussP]

Re: Carlisle 19th August 3.50 Carlisle Currently just the 1 NR, so we have 16 left for this 5f, Class 4 handicap on good/soft. This looks open and it's dangerous to discount many of these. But, I'll favour the high weighted runners and go with the chances of: Legal Eagle (12/1 >Bet365 BOG) - A really consistent horse with a very good shout here. Stable has done well this term and I rate this 5lb claimer very highly so that allowance could make a difference. Has had a good season with some very decent runs, however does struggle to get his head in front so hopefully it's his turn today. Equally effective at 5f or 6f so this trip on a stiffish track on easy ground is ideal. Record over 5f this term read 2-3-3-2-17, with the disappointment in a Class 2 at Ascot off 83. Races off just 78 today with another 5lb to be claimed. This is the first time ever that the horse has raced off less than 80 in handicap company so things look good to record his first win in handicaps. Form on easy ground also read ok, 1-5-10-2, with the last run being over this trip. Entered up at Chester on Fri & Sat this week too, so looks like the stable believe he is in tip top shape. I like its EW chances & am hopeful this will stop the rot.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Carlisle 19th August 2.05 - Nimmy's Special E/W Gambling on one of the outsiders of the large field who takes a drastic drop down in trip to where she showed some promise early on in her career. Best performances in her short career have came at 6f/7f late last year, with finishes of 443, the third coming on the softer ground. After that, was stepped up to 1m/1m1f and never showed anything but is back down to a sharper trip today which could change this horses fortunes. Has a RP top speed of 76, the highest in this field which suggests a short trip like this could suit. Also in this field, Neo's Mate who has won twice this year at close to this trip, one of them on the 'soft' going. Is only 3lb higher than her last win but is back down to the ideal trip today after being tried at longer distances. Can also see Madame Jourdain as value if she can improve on her 2 starts this year. Has shown nothing this year but is down a further 7lb from lto. Last year was a useful horse, winning a claimer and coming 2nd consecutively in a seller and handicap. The handicap race was a 6f class 4 where the winner, Rosabee, went on to win twice after and placing in a class 1. That was off a mark of 64, is now at 50 but obviously has the ability to run off far higher.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Carlisle 19th August 16.25 Carlisle - Rothesay Dancer E/W Was only 6 runs ago when this horse came 3rd in a Class 1 listed race at Ayr back in June this year. Technically runs off the samr today since she ran off 77 that day with a 3lb claimer on board and today she runs off 79 with a 5lb claimer on board. Went on to win her next race after that in a Class 4 handicap off the same mark and same claimer on board. Today she runs in a class 4 Handicap again so she is well overpriced in my opinion. Has won on Soft and Good to soft before so the going should not be a prolem for her. 0.50pts each way @ 11/1 @ Willhill (BOG)

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Carlisle 19th August 5.00 Tricky race here and i only give the first 4 in the market a real chance. Will probably side against Soto who normally finds one to good, but is down an extra pound from recent place finishes so has definitely got a chance. Botham escapes a penalty and should be there abouts due to two wins at this trip and grade in his last 3 starts. Titus Gent may be two high up in the handicap to win this so i'll give Redwater River the best chance. Is up a further 4lb from lto where he won a far tougher race than today, but has won off 8lb higher than todays mark. Doesnt mind the softer going so should be there or there abouts. May also look at a reverse forecast of Redwater River, Botham and Titus Gent. Interested to see how Punta Galera gets on who is tried at this trip for the first time in his career. Normally runs at over the mile on the flat or as a jumps horse. Could be worth having a small e/w on him due to the interesting entry in ths race.