Kim Hyde Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) Corinthians pull one back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted May 31, 2009 Author Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) the point is that i tend to believe that the prices you're betting with are set with the idea that inter plays with first team. even if inter wins, which i believe is what's about to happen, you're going to be paid by something that is under it's fair price! whislt avai in the other hand no matter how weak, are overrated. i definitely agree with you but I just can´t skip this bet tonight with these odds, and yes Avai is overrated in this match.......:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milos NS Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) i definitely agree with you but I just can´t skip this bet tonight with these odds' date=' and yes Avai is overrated in this match.......:ok[/quote'] GL Bagzi, agree with u, but after 2-0 tonight, I will call it for the this week :) Money is in the bank thanx to Mengao and Santos :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucasmondelo Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) this sunday was very sunny infact! Flu didn't way, at least, my dnb was saved thou' i didn't depend on it to profit today. santos was my golden opportunity and i bit the meat when the opportunity came! anwyay, even for those that bet TODAY it was a meaty price! and to complete an already great evening, i could succeed in another meaty odd: Gremio away against vitoria, with one gremio's player sent off, missing 15 minutes to the end of the match, i could bet on a gremio -0,5 gol in the match @1,15! since i was watching the match which ended vitoria 1-0 gremio, i profited even more than i had planed for the evening. So the day finished to me with a yield of 32,29% I'm keeping a 30% avarage yield A DAY, so, i hope you friends are profiting as much as i am :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucasmondelo Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) inter scores the first one at 18'. i'm done for today already but good for the mates that punted inter's reserve squad underrated! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) Thanks for info about the SANTOS game guys :clap , had them in a nice wee double with FLAMENCO [ decent h2h and again the +ve write-ups here helped make my mind up ] Keep the info coming fellas , much appreciated :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PortsDave Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) Thanks for the info on the Santos game guys :clap Its always nice to get one over the bookies, it was a bit of a sweat last 10 minutes until the third goal went in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucasmondelo Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) Thanks for the info on the Santos game guys :clap Its always nice to get one over the bookies' date=' it was a bit of a sweat last 10 minutes until the third goal went in.[/quote'] My golden bet of the weekend was santos dude, anyway, despite the much trustable santos was, i believe DNB is always a wise choice. experience says the biggest threat that a trustable side undergoes is a late tie. trustable home sides losing games mean the trustable home side in fact wasn't trustable. whenever i bet on DNB on a trustable side, DNB has ALWAYS covered unexpected late ties, so dnb 'til now, has a 100% efficiency rate with me, with an avarage 30% yield/day. I worship DNB :ok :notworthyDNB N btw, whenever i bet in brazil i'll share with you guys, unless if it's like a live thing missing minutes which is quite difficult to aware ppl in time, unless if it's a msn mate or something. anyway, BOTTOMS UP FELLOWS, IT'S BEEN A PROFITABLE WEEKEND! AND TOWARDS BIG MONEY WE RIDE :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) I worship DNB :ok That's interesting. I view DNB's slightly different. The only reason I would place a DNB is if I weren't 100% confident in the selection....and if I wasn't 100% confident in it coming off, what is the point in backing a selection? It would be more profitable to back the draw, or just to steer clear of such bets. Just my opinion of course.... I've been reading the Brazilian threads with great interest over the last few weeks. You guys seem be doing a fantastic job! Long may it continue! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucasmondelo Posted June 1, 2009 Share Posted June 1, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) That's interesting. I view DNB's slightly different. The only reason I would place a DNB is if I weren't 100% confident in the selection....and if I wasn't 100% confident in it coming off, what is the point in backing a selection? It would be more profitable to back the draw, or just to steer clear of such bets. Just my opinion of course.... I've been reading the Brazilian threads with great interest over the last few weeks. You guys seem be doing a fantastic job! Long may it continue! I'm new in betting, it's like not more than 21 days i've studied and bet. I'm clearly not experienced if the thing is "time" on it but i've been overcoming all of my personal expectations. My personal experience tells me that DNB is my choice for the following reasons: 1-no matter how much i believe in a home side victory, for example, with matchprices i start the game losing my money. that simple. with dnb, i start with my money back in my wallet. 2-from what i could gather, the biggest threat that a winning side undergoes is the late tie. I mean, if a squad scores in a difficult game, the tendency is to protect themselves, so, a tie might happen. the underdog win isn't the biggest threat, but the tie, at least it seems to me. honestly, if i believed that the difference between the odds of the DNB and the matchprices would pay off the possible ties, i would bet always in the matchprices. i mean, analysing through a general statistical view there are three possibilities in a match, home, tie or away by betting DNB you cover 2/3 of the general possibilites, and only 1/3 with MP. since i'm beggining "the works" i've been using DNB, but i would like to stick at MP. 'til know, all the victories i punted at, those that didn't happen were due to a tie. so since i've been using DNB it covered all of my games. i sincerelly didn't calculate if i had bet MP if that would have paid off. it makes sense when you say that "what's the point to bet on something if you ain't 100% sure of the selection" well if i were 100% sure always i'd be already rich :cow to resume: the biggest threat against my selections were the ties, and by eliminating the tie possibility i can play in more games. i learned a lot in the last days and maybe if my selections start to get more precise i might abbandon DNB in those where i'm more confident. thanks for the constructive critics anyway :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto_Mike Posted June 1, 2009 Share Posted June 1, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) I'm new in betting, it's like not more than 21 days i've studied and bet. I'm clearly not experienced if the thing is "time" on it but i've been overcoming all of my personal expectations. My personal experience tells me that DNB is my choice for the following reasons: 1-no matter how much i believe in a home side victory, for example, with matchprices i start the game losing my money. that simple. with dnb, i start with my money back in my wallet. 2-from what i could gather, the biggest threat that a winning side undergoes is the late tie. I mean, if a squad scores in a difficult game, the tendency is to protect themselves, so, a tie might happen. the underdog win isn't the biggest threat, but the tie, at least it seems to me. honestly, if i believed that the difference between the odds of the DNB and the matchprices would pay off the possible ties, i would bet always in the matchprices. i mean, analysing through a general statistical view there are three possibilities in a match, home, tie or away by betting DNB you cover 2/3 of the general possibilites, and only 1/3 with MP. since i'm beggining "the works" i've been using DNB, but i would like to stick at MP. 'til know, all the victories i punted at, those that didn't happen were due to a tie. so since i've been using DNB it covered all of my games. i sincerelly didn't calculate if i had bet MP if that would have paid off. it makes sense when you say that "what's the point to bet on something if you ain't 100% sure of the selection" well if i were 100% sure always i'd be already rich :cow to resume: the biggest threat against my selections were the ties, and by eliminating the tie possibility i can play in more games. i learned a lot in the last days and maybe if my selections start to get more precise i might abbandon DNB in those where i'm more confident. thanks for the constructive critics anyway :ok So you are telling me you are satisfied for wagering a DNB @ 1.50 for $100 to win $50 then perhaps a ML that is 2.20 $100 to win $120? That is if you flat bet of course. If you wanted to win $100 you are looking at $200 to win $100 whereas with the ML 2.20 you're looking at $45 to win $100 so if you lose on either bets you are left trembling down -$200 as oppose to $45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucasmondelo Posted June 1, 2009 Share Posted June 1, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) So you are telling me you are satisfied for wagering a DNB @ 1.50 for $100 to win $50 then perhaps a ML that is 2.20 $100 to win $120? That is if you flat bet of course. If you wanted to win $100 you are looking at $200 to win $100 whereas with the ML 2.20 you're looking at $45 to win $100 so if you lose on either bets you are left trembling down -$200 as oppose to $45 No, i'm not saying i'm satisfied in winning 1,5 when i could have won 2,2. Your example proves the obvious: the bigger the odd the bigger the profit. My point is: the ML pays the tie risk? for example: you bet today on the santos ML, i bet on the DNB. by the end of the match corinthians was attacking, and the score was 2-1. if corinthians had scored, and the match ended 2-2, my $200 would have come back to me, and you would have lost your $45. our predictions were good, as we tought, and santos scored again, setting a 3-1. I won @1,5 and you won @2,2. I tend to believe that football isn't made of pure math like some punters do, in the sense of makin 10 year H2H statistics, to preview and stuff (i'm not saying you do that) i'm just saying that i have one doubt: does the ML pays off the tie risk? i think that football gives us unique events. maths can't do it as the sport observation does, which means just cause I could have won more by playing ML, that i'll do it from now. each game has an odd, on which maybe the bookie didn't see something we do, so i can't tell if potential ties could eat my profit in the long run, a risk that is fully covered by the DNB. ANYWAY, believe me, when i'm TOTALLY SURE of a win, i bet on ML, but that's quite rare. a lot of factors can screw the goals of a home side, as in the other hand, much can happen in a counter attack assuring a late tie. More specifically about Santos, i have seen santos manager coaching the squad i support in brazil. he leads attacking sides, i could assure that santos would score, but organizing the defence isn't his best quality, which led me to think that a late tie could happen. in the end i think you have more confidence to stick ML than i have. honestly, i'm always willing to learn since i find here much experienced ppl like you. please, tell me one thing: you suffer much with late ties? or your punting in favor of winning sides pays off the losses with ties and the ML profits more than the DNB to you? to me, betting Ml would have meant today a profit of 0.05 unit. the dnb gave me 0.5 unit of profit. (analysing natico/flu [home/dnb] and santos @dnb) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bagzi Posted June 1, 2009 Author Share Posted June 1, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) Fluminense FC +0.5AH @1.72 (stanjames) - 5/10:ok over 2.5 goals @1.93 (betfair) - 4/10:\ SC Internacional (-1)AH @2.04 (bet1128) - 2/10 (money back):ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discodave Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: Brazil » Série A ( 30/31 May ) please, tell me one thing: you suffer much with late ties? or your punting in favor of winning sides pays off the losses with ties and the ML profits more than the DNB to you? to me, betting Ml would have meant today a profit of 0.05 unit. the dnb gave me 0.5 unit of profit. (analysing natico/flu [home/dnb] and santos @dnb) lucas, makes no difference what someone else does if your backing this dnb on home sides your going to win 80% of the time basically if youve been gambling for a short period and your way is working stay with it! only 3% of all gamblers win probably cos they are not as sensible as you most people are greedy they have a decent win and they think their invincible their way of thinking changes and they normally up their bets, which is why the bookies make so much money imo stay the way you are i personally smashed the ht ft result becos of the different circumstances but as you bet more you will realise when certain scenarios occur and you will then be a very good gambler but discipline is the key Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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