Samba_SamPa Posted May 22, 2009 Author Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Cheers guys :ok After yesterday's bumper package of picks :$ I am happy to report that my fancies today totalled only 5, 1 is now a non runner, 1 I've went off after a closer look and 2 I've discarded on price, so that leaves just ONE for today ;) ---------------- Bet 0009 2.45 Newcastle - FINAL VICTORY - £5.00 win @ 1.88 Really keen on this one's chance this afternoon. Debuted at Newbury last October in what looks a decent maiden in retrospect, over a trip that was always going to be too short. Final Victory finished about 5L behind the winner, Skanky Biscuit, who went on to finish 3rd in the Racing Post Trophy on his next start and has been given a mark of 110. Even allowing for that being an unreliable guide to the ability of Final Victory, the form of others in the race, like Bothy, Tactic, Decorum, Brunston, lead me to to think Final Victory is well worthy of a mark in the low 80s. That view is reinforced by his reappearance run over 12f behind King Of Wands and Wild Rhubarb. Wild Rhubarb took a handicap very cosily nto and has been bumped up to 83, whilst King of Wands ran well yesterday off 80. Orthology is the biggest danger, on form, but looked to find the 12f trip too far lto at Newmarket and the soft ground up here today will do him no favours in that respect. Bagber I'd have as about 6 or 7lbs inferior to the selection, whilst Kaloni's only turf run, albeit her debut, was inferior to her all weather runs. -------------- Bank £235.20 Bet 0009 Stake £5.00 New Bank £230.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 22, 2009 Author Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Have just had a few more shekels on this one as it was 2.60 - which is way too big for me :unsure Bank £230.20 Bet 0009 Stake(2) £2.40 New Bank £227.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 22, 2009 Author Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0009 2.45 Newcastle - FINAL VICTORY - £5.00 win @ 1.88 Plus £2.40 win @ 2.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuleBritannia Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH Nice One Mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Well done fella, I was with you on this one: SelectionSelection DetailsResult1Horse RacingWinNEWCASTLE2:45 MAIDEN AUCTION 1m 4f22nd of May 2009 2:45 pmWin or each way Final Victory @ 6/4 (GP) Stake and Return DetailsBet placed at22nd of May 2009 2:44 pmTotal Stake£7.61Bet TypeSingle (To Win)Tax@Tax Free0Number of Lines1Total Stake Due£7.61Stake per Line£7.61Freebets Redeemed£0.00ChannelInternetTotal Amount Paid£7.61Number of win lines1Number of Void Lines0RETURNS£19.03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Cheers guys :ok After yesterday's bumper package of picks :$ I am happy to report that my fancies today totalled only 5, 1 is now a non runner, 1 I've went off after a closer look and 2 I've discarded on price, so that leaves just ONE for today ;) ---------------- Bet 0009 2.45 Newcastle - FINAL VICTORY - £5.00 win @ 1.88 Really keen on this one's chance this afternoon. Debuted at Newbury last October in what looks a decent maiden in retrospect, over a trip that was always going to be too short. Final Victory finished about 5L behind the winner, Skanky Biscuit, who went on to finish 3rd in the Racing Post Trophy on his next start and has been given a mark of 110. Even allowing for that being an unreliable guide to the ability of Final Victory, the form of others in the race, like Bothy, Tactic, Decorum, Brunston, lead me to to think Final Victory is well worthy of a mark in the low 80s. That view is reinforced by his reappearance run over 12f behind King Of Wands and Wild Rhubarb. Wild Rhubarb took a handicap very cosily nto and has been bumped up to 83, whilst King of Wands ran well yesterday off 80. Orthology is the biggest danger, on form, but looked to find the 12f trip too far lto at Newmarket and the soft ground up here today will do him no favours in that respect. Bagber I'd have as about 6 or 7lbs inferior to the selection, whilst Kaloni's only turf run, albeit her debut, was inferior to her all weather runs. -------------- Bank £235.20 Bet 0009 Stake £5.00 New Bank £230.20 Going well Samba :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 22, 2009 Author Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Enjoyed that one :D cheers guys Bank £227.80 Bet 0009 Returns £15.23 New Bank £243.03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 22, 2009 Author Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline The withdrawal of one later has generated a further bet for the day, providing I get matched for the prices I want. Bet 0010 6.50 Haydock - REFUSE TO WAIT - 86p Win @ 6.20 and £3.46 Place @ 2.26 (prices not matched yet, will update nearer the off) The best of those remaining to have had a previous run, which is a positive in the majority of cases for me. She missed the break - should know more this time around - and was outpaced in rear before running on into 5th over 5f, and whilst that looks far from strong form, that experience and this extra furlong means she has a good chance of place money at least. Bank £243.03 Bet 0010 Stake £4.32 New Bank £238.71 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 22, 2009 Author Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline A further non runner in the 6.50 means I have adjusted the prices I want, and the stakes: Waiting to be matched for £4.44 Place @ 1.81 and £1.11 Win @ 3.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 22, 2009 Author Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Got my £1.11 on at 3/1 with Bet365 - 5/2 on Betfair. Betfred were 7/2 but by the time I remembered my password and got deposited it had fell to 5/2 :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 22, 2009 Author Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0010 6.50 Haydock - REFUSE TO WAIT - £1.11 Win @ 4.00 and £4.44 Place @ 1.56 Updated to show the odds I have taken, need to get tea on so can't wait around :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 22, 2009 Author Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bank £243.03 Bet 0010 Stake £5.55 Bet 0010 Return £6.80 New Bank £244.28 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 23, 2009 Author Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0011 2.15 Beverley - MESBAAH - 69p @ 9/1bog (WH) and £2.75 Place @ 2.88 Course record reads 122 - running to the same mark (91) on all 3 occasions, and races of 73 today. Looks to have a nice draw in 8 (of 11) and should get a good pace to chase with Fitzwarren and Ubenkor drawn on his inside. Recent form can be ignored over trips too short and too far, and, providing the jock doesn't waste his energy early doors like last time he rode him, looks to have a solid chance of at least a place. Bet 0012 2.35 Haydock - AINE - £1.02 win @ 4/1bog (WH) and £4.07 Place @ 2.12 Finished 2nd in this race last year when getting going all too late. Suited by the going, which is an unknown for a few in the race, and made a decent reappearance running on over a furlong shorter on softening ground. Good prospects of going close here today. Bet 0013 3.40 Haydock - FOUNDATION ROOM - 83p Win @ 9.4 and £3.31 Place @ 2.2 Won on debut last year beating a previous winner, April Pride, into a 2 1/4L 2nd place. Although April Pride hasn't won again, she has some very smart placed form behind the likes of Cuis Ghaire and Fantasia. She then followed that with a Listed 3rd behind 105-rated Icesolator. The 116-rated Finjaan was just 3/4L in front of her that day. The form of those 2 runs suggest she should be well capable of defying a mark of 88. She ran below par 3rd time up when needing the run, before showing the benefit of that run with a 6th in a valuable Sales race 2 weeks later. By Saffron Walden out of a daughter of Kris, she should be best at today's 8f trip, and did nothing to dispel those thoughts on her reappearance, when an unlucky 3rd on ground faster than ideal behind the reopposing Fareer. With the likelihood that she will improve for that reappearance, a 4lb pull with the winner, and an appreciation of the ground conditions, she can run into at least a place. Bet 0014 8.50 Stratford - ALL THREE FABLES - 79p Win @ 9/1 (Betfred) and £3.18 Place @ 2.52 Had decent hurdler Minella Boys 14L away when winning her Bumper at Uttoxeter last July on Good-Firm ground. Had her three runs to qualify for a mark over the winter months when the ground was probably softer than ideal, and can exploit this mark of 95 tonight back on better ground. Bank £244.28 Bet 0011 Stake £3.44 Bet 0012 Stake £5.09 Bet 0013 Stake £4.14 Bet 0014 Stake £3.97 New Bank £227.64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 23, 2009 Author Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline WIN BETS Bets 10 Winners 4 Strikerate 40% Staked £20.08 Returns £36.09 P/L +£16.01 ROI +79.73% PLACE BETS Bets 8 Winners 5 Strikerate 62.5% Staked £32.28 Returns £36.55 P/L +£4.27 ROI +13.23% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 23, 2009 Author Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0012 2.35 Haydock - AINE - £1.02 win @ 4/1bog (WH) and £4.07 Place @ 2.12 I had backed Adorn by mistake, so just layed it off (at 2.08 :lol), and my bet is £4.07 Place at 2.00 on AINE :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 23, 2009 Author Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bank £227.64 Bet 0014 Return £15.67 New Bank £243.31 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 25, 2009 Author Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0015 1.30 Goodwood - SUPER DUPLEX - 53p Win @ 12.5 and £2.10 Place @ 3.7 Form of debut 4th working out nicely, with the three ahead of him all performing with credit since. The winner, Soccer, got closest to the the best 2yo seen out so far - Monsieur Chevalier - nto, the second Shark Man won nto whilst the third Desert Auction won his next 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 25, 2009 Author Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0016 4.35 Chepstow - BOLD ROSE - 66p Win @ 12.5 and £2.65 Place @ 2.94 Won over C&D 2 runs back having made all and dominated from the same draw as today. Inconsistency is a problem, but this price, with the recent CD form, is well worth a small bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 25, 2009 Author Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bank £243.31 Bet 0015 Stake £2.63 Bet 0016 Stake £3.31 Bet 0015 Return £7.49 New Bank £244.86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 26, 2009 Author Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0017 2.20 Chepstow - AVONVALLEY - £5.13 win @ 1.97 Bet 0018 3.00 Leicester - CLERK'S CHOICE - 81p Win @ 6.5 (WH) and £3.24 Place @ 2.42 Rounded off 2008 with 2 defeats as favourite though steadily progressive, but stepped up on his 2yo form with a good 50/1 3rd at Doncaster earlier in the month over 7f. Staying on after a poor start that day, this step up in trip will suit and, although having been bumped up 2lb for that effort, the smart apprentice Beuzelin takes off 5 this afternoon, and the selection can go close again. Bet 0019 3.30 Leicester - LOCATION - 98p Win @ 5.5bog(Bet365) & £3.92 Place [waiting for better place odds, will update] The step up to this trip suited last time with the selection running a good 2nd behind Umverti at Pontefract 4 days ago, and can build on that in this contest today off bottom weight, and off the same mark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 26, 2009 Author Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline oops, just nipping out, will do write up for first when back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 26, 2009 Author Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0017 2.20 Chepstow - AVONVALLEY - £5.13 win @ 1.97 Easily the form pick of those with experience, the only worry being the 322 figures, however there's no reason to attribute those to her being ungenuine. She has progressed with each start and can do so again here, at the main expense of Safari Special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 26, 2009 Author Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bank £244.86 Bet 0017 Stake £5.13 Bet 0018 Stake £4.05 Bet 0019 Stake £4.90 New Bank £230.78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 26, 2009 Author Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0019 3.30 Leicester - LOCATION - 98p Win @ 5.5bog(Bet365) & £3.92 Place [waiting for better place odds, will update]. Taken 1.80 for the place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 26, 2009 Author Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bank £230.78 Bet 0017 Return £9.86 Bet 0018 Return £7.61 New Bank £248.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 27, 2009 Author Share Posted May 27, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0020 2.10 Brighton - KALAM DALEEL - £6.62 Win @ 1.5bog (PP) Bet 0021 2.40 Brighton - FANTASTIC DUBAI - £1.34 Win @ 2.72 and £5.37 Place @ 1.48 Bet 0022 4.10 Lingfield - STRIKE THE DEAL - £1.54 Win @ 2.75bog (WH) and £6.16 Place @ 1.29 Just busy with the kids for a little while, will post reasoning up soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 27, 2009 Author Share Posted May 27, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bank £248.25 Bet 0020 Stake £6.62 Bet 0021 Stake £6.71 Bet 0022 Stake £7.70 New Bank £227.22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 27, 2009 Author Share Posted May 27, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0020 2.10 Brighton - KALAM DALEEL - £6.62 Win @ 1.5bog (PP) Encouraging debut 3rd over the minimum distance, beaten just 1/2L having been outpaced when the race began in earnest. Both those ahead had previous experience, and the selection can put his experience to use in this race over 1f further, which will suit on breeding. Clearly a leading chance, and I think it will go off even shorter than the 1/2 taken. Bet 0021 2.40 Brighton - FANTASTIC DUBAI - £1.34 Win @ 2.72 and £5.37 Place @ 1.48 Interesting stepped back in trip having just clung on over 7f then just run out of it over 7f, this well bred colt appears as if he'll better for the sprint trip. Still on a very exploitable mark, and disappointing if he can't take advantage of that. Bet 0022 4.10 Lingfield - STRIKE THE DEAL - £1.54 Win @ 2.75bog (WH) and £6.16 Place @ 1.29 Some class form in the book, beyond that of any of his rivals here today. Has contested the Palace House and the Duke Of York so far in 2009, 4th on both occasions, it will be hugely disappointing if he can't pick up this Class 3 Stakes race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted May 27, 2009 Share Posted May 27, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Bet 0020 2.10 Brighton - KALAM DALEEL - £6.62 Win @ 1.5bog (PP) Encouraging debut 3rd over the minimum distance, beaten just 1/2L having been outpaced when the race began in earnest. Both those ahead had previous experience, and the selection can put his experience to use in this race over 1f further, which will suit on breeding. Clearly a leading chance, and I think it will go off even shorter than the 1/2 taken. Bet 0021 Have then announced the winner of the photo yet? :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted May 27, 2009 Author Share Posted May 27, 2009 Re: Samba's Quest For Discipline Have then announced the winner of the photo yet? :lol Fresh air was a close second :ok :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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