happygooner Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. Sorry to see this has gone so badly wrong but with high odds and a low s/r you're always going to get big losing runs. Would it not be better to only increase staking after achieving a set goal? Also perhaps lay down some criteria as everything is just seemingly random at the moment isn't it?! There's definitely mileage in your idea but it could do with tweaking imo. Sorry to come across like a know it all as believe me....I don't know much of anything. Just the way it appears. Gl with whatever you decide:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 10, 2009 Author Share Posted June 10, 2009 Day 19 Back from me holidays, anyway going to continue with bank 1, at its last level. LeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceInt5.91AustraliaBahrain 12.0Int5.91South KoreaSaudi Arabia 9.2Int5.91EcuadorArgentina 10.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 10, 2009 Author Share Posted June 10, 2009 Day 20 These matches are on early morning so posting them now: LeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceInt5.91ColombiaPeru 14.0Int5.91BrazilParaguay 16.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 11, 2009 Author Share Posted June 11, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 12, 2009 Author Share Posted June 12, 2009 Day 21 bets LeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceU204.98Argentina U20Netherlands U20 10.5U204.98France U20Chile U20 10.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 13, 2009 Author Share Posted June 13, 2009 DateLeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceReturnComm(4.9%)Net ReturnBalance12-JunU204.98Argentina U20Netherlands U20 1 - 011.0-4.980.00-4.98161.0612-JunU204.98France U20Chile U20 0 - 110.5-4.980.00-4.98156.08 Total Bets: 55 Bets won: 5 Bets Lost: 50 P+L: +56.08 Balance: 156.08 Next Daily stake: 4.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discodave Posted June 13, 2009 Share Posted June 13, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. good luck with this wiw but ive just had a thought you are trying to back a 0-0 result in a live football game, now surely the reason that these games are live is because the tv company thinks that these are going to be entertaining games they are not going to want 0-0s because the viewing figures will go down surely you should be betting on non live games not saying that the tv companies are fixing im just saying they must have some kind of expert who picks the games for them if anything your backing on the worst possible games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 13, 2009 Author Share Posted June 13, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. you are trying to back a 0-0 result in a live football game, now surely the reason that these games are live is because the tv company thinks that these are going to be entertaining games they are not going to want 0-0s because the viewing figures will go down surely you should be betting on non live games not saying that the tv companies are fixing im just saying they must have some kind of expert who picks the games for them Thats a fair point, but i'd be of the opinion they put on matches which would be the get the biggest audience, goals dont automatically = people watching; i.e. Middleboro and Burnley might score 10 goals each in 3 games, and they play each other the next week and clash with Liverpool or Man Utd, who do you think SKy will have on? if anything your backing on the worst possible games I would disagree with this, on the basis of your first point above; as some people are of the same opinion and thus the price gets inflated. The overlay isnt as big on the live matches; i'll give you that, but the difference (in my experience) is only 1 BF point, on average the BF price is 4 points bigger (than SP) for non-live and 3 points for the live ones. The other reason i do the live ones, is that I get to see them; most of the time. After all it is still +21.00 to level stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 13, 2009 Author Share Posted June 13, 2009 3 Week Stats Starting Balance: 100.00 - Current Balance: 156.08* (Balance to Industry SP: 83.74) Bets: 55 Winning Bets: 5 Losing bets: 50 Avg Price(BF): 14.15 Avg Price(Industry): 10.97 Bank 1 SR: 9% Level Stake Profit BF price: +21.70 To Ind Best Price: +0.50 * Balance includes commission (currently around 4.9%). Balance to SP includes comission at 5%. ** SP calculated to Betfair Prices (e.g. 2/1 = 3.0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 13, 2009 Author Share Posted June 13, 2009 Day 22 Bets LeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceConfed4.98South AfricaIraq 12.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 14, 2009 Author Share Posted June 14, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. DateLeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceReturnComm(4.9%)Net ReturnBalance14-JunConfed4.98South AfricaIraq0 - 012.054.782.7452.04208.12 Total Bets: 56 Bets won: 6 Bets Lost: 50 P+L: +108.12 Balance: 208.12 Next Daily stake: 6.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 14, 2009 Author Share Posted June 14, 2009 Day 23 LeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceConfed6.15BrazilEgypt 19.5U216.15England U21Finland U21 15.0Confed6.15ItalyUSA 11.5U216.15Spain U21Germany U21 10.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discodave Posted June 15, 2009 Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. Thats a fair point, but i'd be of the opinion they put on matches which would be the get the biggest audience, goals dont automatically = people watching; i.e. Middleboro and Burnley might score 10 goals each in 3 games, and they play each other the next week and clash with Liverpool or Man Utd, who do you think SKy will have on? I would disagree with this, on the basis of your first point above; as some people are of the same opinion and thus the price gets inflated. The overlay isnt as big on the live matches; i'll give you that, but the difference (in my experience) is only 1 BF point, on average the BF price is 4 points bigger (than SP) for non-live and 3 points for the live ones. The other reason i do the live ones, is that I get to see them; most of the time. After all it is still +21.00 to level stakes. fair points gl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 15, 2009 Author Share Posted June 15, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 15, 2009 Author Share Posted June 15, 2009 Day 24 Bets LeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceU217.26Sweden U21Belarus U21 11.0U217.26Italy U21Serbia U21 10.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newestpunter Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. couple of interesting games tonight - i think one will certainly go 0-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 16, 2009 Author Share Posted June 16, 2009 Day 24 Results DateLeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceReturnComm(4.9%)Net ReturnBalance16-JunU217.26Sweden U21Belarus U215 - 111.0-7.260.00-7.26237.9216-JunU217.26Italy U21Serbia U210 - 010.065.343.2762.07299.99 Total Bets: 62 Bets won: 8 Bets Lost: 54 P+L: +199.99 Balance: 299.99 Next Daily stake: 7.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 16, 2009 Author Share Posted June 16, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. couple of interesting games tonight - i think one will certainly go 0-0 Good call!! Hope you were on one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discodave Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Re: Day 24 Results DateLeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceReturnComm(4.9%)Net ReturnBalance16-JunU217.26Sweden U21Belarus U215 - 111.0-7.260.00-7.26234.8116-JunU217.26Italy U21Serbia U210 - 010.065.343.2762.07296.88 Total Bets: 62 Bets won: 8 Bets Lost: 54 P+L: +196.88 Balance: 296.88 Next Daily stake: 7.26 :clap that one was nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. going well in here - interesting to see early profits so encouraging given the number of us who have looked at laying 0-0's :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newestpunter Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. told ya i threw a tenner on each game being 0-0 after the goal glut in the first game i was a bit wary because the italians and serbs scored a lot of goals in qualifying - and when the serbs had that little spell when they forced a great save out of the italian keeper and then the overhead kick hit the post i knew it was gonna end 0-0 good to get a winner for a change keep it up mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 16, 2009 Author Share Posted June 16, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. told ya i threw a tenner on each game being 0-0 after the goal glut in the first game i was a bit wary because the italians and serbs scored a lot of goals in qualifying - and when the serbs had that little spell when they forced a great save out of the italian keeper and then the overhead kick hit the post i knew it was gonna end 0-0 good to get a winner for a change keep it up mate I know exactly what your talking about, i have watched all but 4 of the matches, and in the 0-0's you just get that moment where something happens and you get the aura that the 0-0 is inevitable; its a great feeling! Trying not to get too excited though, as the losing runs can be huge, and for that reason i am not going to up the stake after this win, going to keep it at the same level from the last win (7.26). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Day 25 bets LeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceReturn17-JunInt7.26South KoreaIran 9.417-JunConfed7.26South AfricaNew Zealand 15.517-JunLiber7.26NacionalPalmeiras 11.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newestpunter Posted June 17, 2009 Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. well iran have scored i'm thinking the 3rd one looks the most likely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 17, 2009 Author Share Posted June 17, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. Didnt put spain in cause of the price 55.0, now its 0-0 HT and the price is 7.2 :wall:wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 18, 2009 Author Share Posted June 18, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 18, 2009 Author Share Posted June 18, 2009 Day 26 Bets LeagueStakeHomeAwayResultPriceConfed8.95USABrazil 20.0U218.95Germany U21Finland U21 17.5Confed8.95EgyptItaly 14.0U218.95Spain U21England U21 9.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 18, 2009 Author Share Posted June 18, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newestpunter Posted June 18, 2009 Share Posted June 18, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. well iran have scored i'm thinking the 3rd one looks the most likely lol - i seem to be having a good time picking the 0-0s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiw4 Posted June 19, 2009 Author Share Posted June 19, 2009 Re: No Goals Please. lol - i seem to be having a good time picking the 0-0s ha ha, i needed you to pick a match yesterday!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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