Mileni Over The Sticks 2011/2012

[Boulder5111]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 the usual top quality tipping Mileni - well done :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 Cheers, lads :notworthy 4.15 Bangor Mizen Raven 0.5pt EW - 14/1 2nd last year off just few lbs lower. Won't mind any rain. Far from being the most progressive sort in the race, but I think Peter Bowen can improve him. Tom O'Brien takes the ride after winning on him two starts ago. He is very good at settling horses and if Mizen Raven does that in the cheekpieces (pulled too hard lto), he will be staying on strongly in the final furlongs. Usually finds one or two too good, but at 14/1 I think I'm definitely taking a value price.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 4.55 Newton Abbot Starstruck Peter 1pt EW - 12/1 Didn't go very far lto, but apparently something went wrong. Given 2 months to recover. Improved a lot on the flat for a shrewd yard and I won't be surprised if he goes close today. Useful rider claims 5lbs. The only concern would be that he's extremelly easy to back this morning. Not a good sign for a Jim Best runner. Still, it looks a weak race. The fav, who I backed few days ago, is exteremelly quirky and might struggle with the penalty. The selection should have improved changing hands and is a good price in a race, where a potential improver like him is always worth backing.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 4.20 Newton Abbot Bermuda Pointe 0.5pt win & place - 7/1 & 2.44 Took 3 places at Betfair. Might come back to form today. Has won off 106 and runs off 108 today. Has always been competitive off similar marks and ran some decent races last season. Placed off 116 at Ffos Las over 2 miles. Twiston-Davies is in great form and Paddy Brennan takes the ride and after a comeback run for fitness last month, I can definitely see return to form today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 6.50 Market Rasen Nesnaas 0.75pt win - 7/1 Wins off 105 two seasons ago and 104 last summer look good on today's 94. Been a bit out of sorts since, but twice 2nd last couple of months makes me think he is coming to form. With the capable David Bass claiming 5lbs, I think he may run a decent race off feather weight tonight. The 7/1 is worth a small wager I reckon.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 4.30 Newton Abbot Le Forezien 1pt EW - 11/1 3 places here crucial, so either take Betfair or wait closer to the off to see if there are any non runners. Encouraging run lto when beaten 3L by Justabout. The latter ran very well yesterday off 8lbs higher. Le Forezien has been more miss than hit this season, but had 1st and 2nd in pointers early in the year and the last effort was encouraging. Off 10lbs higher he managed to finish 2nd in this race 2 seasons ago. 5lbs out of the handicap offset by Ian Popham's claim and the rain softened ground may be a disadvantage to some of the top weights, who are short enough in the market. At the same time the selection will be staying on off feather weight and will like the conditions. Course record isn't bad either (3,5,2,1,2,B,3).

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 3.30 Newton Abbot Calon Crwbin 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Looks overpriced on Betfair. 25/1 for the win and 4/1 for the place with guaranteed 4 places if there are non runners. Very competitive looking race and I can make a case for half the field, but I really like this Alison Thorpe yardstick, who makes his handicap debut today. Been doing well in novices. Won in April, then got beat by Osric from Henderson's, who might turn out to be a pretty useful horse. 2f further is an unknown, but he absolutely bolted up last time out and I think the 120 set by the handicapper could be a lenient mark. Price is worth an EW try.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 2.45 Sedgefield Courella 1pt win - 3/1 Weakish field here and this fella won nicely few days ago. Might have too much class against some exposed sorts. Surprised at the price really. I make him a genuine 6/4 shot. With this yard it's always a bit of a worry, otherwise would have a bigger bet.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 7.20 Ffos Las Lyes Green 1.25pt EW - 16/1 This price is wrong. 2nd over 4 miles off 120 last year and then won a Newbury handicap off 124. Did pretty well over hurdles lto finishing 4th and probably needed it. 127 is definitely a mark he can win off. Used to be placed in listed handicaps off 130+ over hurdles. Trainer always better with his chasers. Rain won't affect him at all. In fact, he has so much stamina (2nd over 4m proves it) and he acts on the ground well. No way he should be 16/1!!

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 6.00 Bangor Bathwick Man 0.75pt EW - 9/1 Two good runs after a break and should be spot on today. It's a congested handicap with most runners carrying 11st something and top weight shouldn't be a problem. It looks a winnable mark with the expected Pipe improvement once the cobwebs are gone (2 runs already this season). Shade overpriced for me at the 9s available.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 4.50 Ffos Las Knight Legend 0.5pt win - 15/2 Killenaule Boy 0.5pt win - 18/1 I would have been very keen if the rain had come, but it seems unlikely and the jumps track is good g/s in places. Knight Legend has slipped to a winnable mark and ran really well lto when 2nd behind Stagecoach Pearl. Rain would have helped him, because few of the youngsters have the quicker legs, but I still think he can go close. Killenaule Boy has had some wins in Ireland and lto can be forgiven. Change of trip and tongue tie always worth considering when Pipe is involved. Those are the two in the field, who I think will outrun their prices.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010

An antepost bet for next year .. Champion Hurdle 2011 Khyber Kim.. 9pt win @ 22.0 In my four years following the sport I've learned that horses come back in this race and go a place to two better the follwing year. Punjabi 3rd and then 1st. Binocular 3rd and then 1st. Other examples in the past as well. I think 14/1 for Hurricane Fly is huge too, but I just can't back him after he has missed two festivals in his career. He'll probably bolt up at Punchestown and be single figures afterwards, but I won't take that for granted with Punjabi, Solwhit and co. there. Not worth the risk and the Fly is actually not 100% to get there anyway. At this moment in time the only horse I am interest in is Khyber Kim. Especially at this silly price offered to me by the Betfair layers. I think Paddy Brennan rode him knowing he has only one or two rivals to beat, but he didn't know he had back to his best Binocular to beat. We might see a reversed form at Aintree or at least KK to be really really close. People regard him as fragile, but he has only had one injury that kept him out for some time. Twiston-Davies has found the key to him and even managed to get two wins into him in the space of one month, which proves he doesn't really need to be fresh anymore. He is just a transformed horse, who still has improvement in him. Yes, Binocular is 2 years younger, but people forget this is the first year of Khyber Kim in the grade 1 company and 20/1 is well worth a bet and the risk at this stage. No doubt if he stays fit he can win a trial or two and I'll lay at half the price. Might even manage to do it after Aintree who knows.

Imperial Commander's part-owner has said on Betfair forums that KK is going for the Champion Hurdle again this year which is good news. Currently available to back at 17.00 right now, would you say that's value? I would. Take out Binocular who was an intended non-runner anyway and he'd have won the CH by 6 lengths. Travelled really well but couldn't live with that one unreal performance. Question is, can Bino do that again? Value has gone for me and KK at 17 is massive.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 Yes, mate. That would still be value price for me. Will respond properly tomorrow. Just have few things to do this weekend and I'm not much online :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 4.40 Hereford Intac 0.75pt EW - 12/1 Some doubts about the market leaders in this race. The Pipe handicap debutant will have to jump pretty well and is only a 4 yo while the Vaughan horse rarely wins. Intac has some decent form in novices and with yard in good shape, I think he may run a big race here. 12/1 worth a shot.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks ~ 2009/2010 Been a bit busy lately and not much time for racing. Probably gonna do a bit of break before the jumping season starts. August finished on -2pts loss, so after 7 winning months it's maybe for the best I get it off my chest and get ready for another winning run :)

Gold Cup 2011 Neptune Collonges.. 1pt win @ 175.0

Layed this one at 30. There was plenty of 100+ when I tipped him, so I hope some of you managed to match some money. It was an easy trade :ok In the meantime I've increased my staking, so the amount of money equal to 1pt at the time is worth 0.75pt with my current stakes. So the bet stands as: Neptune Collonges.. 0.75pt back & lay @ 175.0 & 30.0 free bet returning 108pts

[mileni4uk]

Imperial Commander's part-owner has said on Betfair forums that KK is going for the Champion Hurdle again this year which is good news. Currently available to back at 17.00 right now' date=' would you say that's value? I would. Take out Binocular who was an intended non-runner anyway and he'd have won the CH by 6 lengths. Travelled really well but couldn't live with that one unreal performance. Question is, can Bino do that again? Value has gone for me and KK at 17 is massive.[/quote'] I've said it all long that KK would stand a chance of winning if he gets some cut. If the ground is good, I don't see him beating the lightning quick Binocular and especially Hurricane Fly. Binocular might again show his attitude next season though and Hurricane Fly has to get there first, while KK since moving to Twiston-Davies has been doing all things right, so at this moment of time the only antepost proposition would be him for me. Not sure about the novices at all. I see Peddlers Cross is short enough in the market, but I thought he was going to go chasing? Nothing from the Supreme worries me. Nothing from Ireland except the Fly either. Only possibly Peddlers Corss could be a surprise. Otherwise it's a 3 horse race with KK, Fly and Bino class above the rest.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 Gold Cup 2011 Don't Push It.. 0.5pt win @ 680.0 After the successful trade on Neptune, I will try another one on this year's National winner. Can't remember any news about him being injured or something. Don't see any articles about him having any setbacks, so will take my chances. I remember last year Mon Mome was trading @ 400-500 on Betfair at a latter stage, so probably the same situation here. During the years there's always been a stayer sneaking into the placings in the Gold Cup. Mon Mome did that last year getting a staying on 3rd. Don't Push It has a lot more class for me and is rated 164 now. Not far off the top staying chasers and would stand a chance in the race. The plan would probably be the GN with him, but I should be able to trade this bet. The layers are matching some silly odds. Silly if he hasn't been injured of course, so fingers crossed :hope

[MalcomWagon]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 I also love this. Thansk

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 Chepstow 5.10 Ballycarney 0.5pt EW - 12/1 Cullahill 0.5pt EW - 14/1 Both relatively unexposed and fit from recent runs. Surprised to see fav 2/1 and Beat The Boys is only 4/1, because he won this last year and trainer is on fire. I think my two represent value and I'm sure both can go close. Ballycarney hopefully jumps like he did at Stratfor lto.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 Bangor 2.55 Rebel Dancer 1pt EW - 5/1 Won at Hundingdon off 9lb lower and follwed up with a 3rd after that. Has McCoy today and money have been coming all morning. Should be fit and ready to run his race and with the relatively uninspiring field (bar one or two dangers), I think he makes a good EW bet to nothing at 5/1.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 Hexham 3.10 Quinder Spring 1pt win - 4/1 After 6 consecutive wins in pointers, started long odds on in a hunters chase, but didn't go very far unseating after several mistakes. Jumping shouldn't be an issue though and it has probably been put right since. Weakish field and I'd be surprised if the selection doesn't go close off his current mark of 97.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 New jumping season and no change in proceedings. The one I put in BBOTD loses :lol

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 + Venture Into Flat 2010 Manged to trade this one too ..

Gold Cup 2011 Don't Push It.. 0.5pt win @ 680.0

Dont Push It.. 0.5pt back & lay @ 680.0 & 290.0 free bet returning 195pts

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Ffos Las 4.30 Rio Gael 0.75pt EW - 7/1 This is a better race than those he's been contesting over the summer, but I like the yard's novices going into handicap company. 117 could be a fair mark. Two starts ago he finished 2nd to a Swinbank horse both finishing miles clear of the rest. Last time out he again finished 2nd to Garry Moore horse, who won since. With Hobbs in such great form we get Exulto underpriced. Points Of View has been in great form, but is now racing in the 130s and I think handicapper finally caught him lto. Gloucester could run a race if he gets good pace, but he just doesn't like to get his head infront and is not one to trust. From the rest I think Enlightment will find this too quick back over hurdles. Bolton Hall and Disdasha are on a career high marks, while Black Jack Blues is top weight and will possibly need the run. Rio Gael should improve for this handicap debut and in 8 runner field, makes a good EW appeal.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Ffos Las 5.05 Treasury Counsel 0.5pt EW - 20/1 I don't like the yard and I'm not sure about the horse either. Not to mention the amateur on board. That 2nd at Southwell in July sticks out though. 3 miles, good ground, flat left handed track. He was well backed and was fav that day. Same conditions today. All runs on soft or shorter can be ignored, because he wasn't suited. He still ran appalingly, but is 25lbs lower than his last winning mark and further 10lb by the claimer. I almost never get the yard right, but when they are on form they are backable. And at the price, I thought I'd have a go.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Huntingdon 2.50 Fidelis 0.5pt EW - 7/1 Would have had bigger bet if I didn't have reservations towards the yard and the 5 month absence. The selection has some very good hurdling form last season behind decent novices. 3rd to Get Me Out Of Here, 4th to Pepe Simo. 2nd in a bumper behind Lush Life. All of these are much much better class now. Finished 2nd last twice in handicaps to Jim Best and Andrew Carroll sorts, who are higher in the ratings too. The key for me is the trip here. Should definitely benefit from 2m4f and jumped ok on chasing debut three starts ago. With Noel Fehily on board, I think a sporting EW bet is worth a try.

[Aykay1]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011 Some nice trading on the Gold Cup already Milen :ok Cant believe someone backed Neptune Collinges at 30.0 :eek

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Some nice trading on the Gold Cup already Milen :ok Cant believe someone backed Neptune Collinges at 30.0 :eek

Can't believe someone layed at 180 :D

[mileni4uk]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Huntingdon 2.50 Fidelis 0.5pt EW - 7/1

Make that 0.75 EW. I tipped him without seeing my notifications. I've added him to my notebook after lto. He could have been a lot closer if he hadn't made a mistake at the last. Also he is dropped 3lbs today. Looks big scopy sort and chasing will be his game. Worth 0.25pt more. If it was another yard I'd tipped 1pt or bigger.

[Aykay1]

Re: Mileni Over The Sticks 2010/2011

Can't believe someone layed at 180 :D

Hehe, true!