Trotter Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 The 2009 season steps up a gear today with the first of the group one races. 2.50 Longchamp - Prix Ganay - 10.5 furlongs for 4 year olds and over. Here's some trends from the last 10 runnings........... 9/10 - 4 or 5 year olds 7/10 - 4 year olds 9/10 - colts 9/10 - 12 career runs or fewer 9/10 - group race winners (the one that wasn't was Duke Of Marmalade !) So far, not too good as nearly all today's runners fit those trends. 5/10 - finished 1st or 2nd in the main trial, the D'Harcourt. 5/10 - Previously won Group One race 8/10 - had won over further than todays trip 9/10 - career best racing post rating of 117 plus The D'Harcourt winner, Trincot, misses the race so the form is represented by the 2nd, 3rd and 4th - The Bogberry, Vision D'Etat and Loup Breton. With a slightly longer trip and the change around in weights Vision D'etat should come out on top from those 3. Group One winners in todays field - Vision D'Etat, Alderfluger, Cima de Triomphe and The wayyouare. Alderfluger and 'Cima' have won their Group Ones in Germany and Italy. 'Cima' has his first run since moving to Cumani from italy. Vision D'Etat won the French Derby and finished 5th in the Arc. Thewayyouare won the Gran Crterium as a two year old but only had two runs last year and disappointed. This is his first run for the O'Brien yard and they've sent over their number one pacemaker, Red Rock Canyon, to give him a hand. Vision D'Etat ticks all the boxes Thewayyouare - best watched till he shows signs of getting back to his form from 2 years ago. Some of O'Briens seem to need the run Alderfluger looks like a plodder, 12 furlongs, heavy ground type, might be a bit sharp for him today, but he could be a force when conditions are right Cime de triomphe - I like this horse, if Cumani can imrove him a bit, he'll be competitive at top level. Tajaweed - promising, but has only won at group 3 level Selections....... 1 Vision D'Etat 2 Cima de Triomphe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Group One Races 2009 Good start Trotter, nice winner, paid 13/8. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted April 26, 2009 Author Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Group One Races 2009 Thanks bowles !........ Always a bit of a worry with the French races because you're never sure in advance what the likely odds are or what the going is........ If I decide to carry on with this I'll stick up a P/L column after a few races......... On to Newmarket for the Guineas ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 1, 2009 Author Share Posted May 1, 2009 Re: Group One Races 2009 2000 Guineas......... These are the trends that I've picked out to form my shortlist..... 10/10 - losing run of 2 or less 10/10 - 7 career runs or less 10/10 - not won over further than 7F at 2 9/10 - 5 career runs or less 9/10 - won half or more of their races 9/10 - RPR of 107+ at 2 3/3- RPR of 111+ at 3 (those that had run at 3 obviously !) 7/10 - won a group or listed race at 2 7/10 - Seasonal debut 3/3 - not on seasonal debut were 1st or 2nd their prep race I've also cobbled up a basic 'stamina breeding number' - sire plus damsire divide by 2 - which isn't entirely satisfactory but 8/10 winners falls within number 8-10. I've used this only to discount runners that are borderline on the other trends. So...........the short list......... Delegator Mastercraftsman Rip Van Winkle Ashram I've a query against Ashram on the stamina number because I can't find a 'number' for his sire Delegator is fit, in form, handles the going, CD winner, visually impressive in the Craven Slightly worried about the 2 O'Brien horses - the stable isn't really firing yet and both rounded off last year with fairly poor runs abroad. Do they travel well ? Have they been over-rated because of the stable reputation ? RPW won a maiden, won a four runner group 3 beating a filly carrying a penalty, so effectively at level weights. He then ran 7th in what looks a below par Dewhurst. The winner of that race, Inrtense Focus, had been beaten half a dozen times and they finished in a heap. Mastercraftsman won his first 4 races, but what did he beat ? He beat Duc De Savoie by half a length, he beat Alhaban by a short head and he beat Shaweel by a short head. His reputation really rests on a 5L slamming of Art Connoisseur, but that horse was never the same after the Coventry. As one of only 4 horses who fit my trends I reckon Ashram at around 20/1 is a cracking EW - he was impressive when winning the Somerville Tattersalls last year, acts on the going, acts on the track. So for the selections I'm going to swerve the O'Brien horses..... 1 Delegator (win only) 2 Ashram (EW) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 3, 2009 Author Share Posted May 3, 2009 Re: Group One Races 2009 2000 gns - post match analysis Well, Brian...........:lol Not too disappointed with my trends research.........my main 3 picks finished 2nd, 4th and 5th. Ashram was a disappointment, but as I said, I had a query over it anyway and probably should have left it off the shortlist because of that. I wanted to get it in because I wanted a big price one for an EW selection. Must try and avoid doing that in future. The winner, Sea The Stars, was 'next best' in my list because he only fell down on one trend - he had won over 8F at 2 With the 3rd horse home also having won over 8F at 2 my thought is that there isn't an outstanding 3YO Miler around and the middle distance horses have dominated the Guineas because of that. But plenty of time for something to emerge in time for the St James at Royal Ascot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 3, 2009 Author Share Posted May 3, 2009 Re: Group One Races 2009 On to the 1000 guineas.......... Trends....... 10/10 - 8 career runs or less 10/10 - losing run of 2 or less 10/10 - ran in a group race at 2 10/10 - not won over further than 8F at 2 9/10 - RPR of 101+ at 2 8/10 - not won over further than 7F at 2 4/5 - that ran at 3 won their prep race 4/5 - RPR of 105+ at 3 7/10 - 5 career runs or less 7/10 - won last race 7/10 - Won a group race at 2 6/10 - won more than half their races 5/10 - Seasonal debut 9/10 - Stamina figure of 8 to 10 That lot gives me a short list of 4....... Cuis Ghaire Rainbow View Serious Attitude Shimah Serious Attitude and Shimah look like sprinters to me and there has to be doubts over the trip for them both, although in previous years 3/10 of the last 1000 winners hadn't won over further than 6F at 2. A slow pace race would probably suit them both, but then it would also suit Rainbow View who has a terrific turn of foot. so by elimination I've gotta go for 1 Rainbow View (win only) 2 Cuis Ghaire (EW) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 3, 2009 Author Share Posted May 3, 2009 Re: Group One Races 2009 Oh dear.........Ghanaati was a bit of a trend buster....... I'd marked her down for 2 things.........she hadn't run in a group race at 2 and her RPR at 2 was a good 20-30lbs below the rating of previous winners As for my 4 trends horses - the 2 sprinter types didn't stay as expected and the 2 selections finished 2nd and 5th. Cuis Ghaire was decent odds at 12/1 but Rainbow View at odds-on was plain disappointing and perhaps those wise folks who said 'she's just a two year old' last year might be right. Off to France now for the Poulains and Pouliches........:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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