muppet77 Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 (edited) FAQs what's going on here? i intend to proof my new rating system for 'total corners' in a match. i will be using live tv games, as covered by Sporting Index or spreadex. I will cover the EPL, SPL, Champ, L1, L2, BSq, Spain, Italy and Germany. League games only! All bets will be paper tested before unleashing real money. i hope to get a decent yield after 100 or so bets. i will measure % yield by : profit / (money won + abs(money lost)) eg if i have two bets, and win 3 quid on one, but lose 2 quid on the other, this gives me a yield of 20%. 1 / (2 + 3) where do you get your data from? www.football-data.co.uk how much do you stake? i will measure the difference between my estimate and the midpoint of the bookies spread to work out my stake: eg the spread is 11.25-11.75 gives a midpoint of 11.50 i estimate 10.00 which gives a difference of 1.5 corners or a SELL of 7 units difference stake 0-0.74: no bet 0.75-0.99: 3 units 1-1.24: 4 units 1.25-1.49: 5 units 1.5-1.74: 7 units 1.75-1.99: 8 units 2-2.24: 9 units 2.25-2.49: 11 units 2.5-2.74: 12 units 2.75-2.99: 14 units 3-3.24: 15 units what is spread betting? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spread_betting http://images.sportingindex.com/globalimages/trainingacademy/trainingacademy.html who are the spread companies that you use? http://www.sportingindex.com/ http://www.extrabet.com/dealing/sport/home.htm http://www.sportsspread.com/ http://www.spreadex.com/Sports/ https://www.sportsalive.com/betshop/index.php?cPath=2052#top generally i will only use Sporting and Extra. If you have to pick one of the two, Sporting covers around 75% of my bets, Extra the others. is there a place to compare spread corners? no! let me know if you hear of one! how do you work out the estimates? i use simple stats to rate the two teams involved. league only. that's all i am saying! (unless i get a financial offer from a spead firm or individual!) do you plan in advance? yes i use http://www.livesportontv.com/football/ to anticipate which games will be priced up. the weekend's games are usually published on a thursday by Sporting Index (SPIN) and friday by extrabet. i rarely use the other companies listed as the best price usually comes from one of these two. (70% from SPIN and 30% extrabet). these are the only two accounts you need for most of the bets. how much can i lose? i have a stop loss feature of 10 corners, so i can lose 10 x the stake per corner. eg if i stake 4 units per corner, at £1 per corner, i can lose at most 4 units x 10 corners x £1 = £40 but a bigger stake of 7 units at £10 a corner could be 7 units x 10 corners x £10 = £700 it is up to you to sensibly work out your stake - don't blame me! do you bet on multiples or singles for o/u a particular corner count? no, i stick to spread bets as it suits my estimating method more as it doesn't need another approximation method to work out the % chance of o/u. where do you get historic spread odds from? as far as i know there is no site with historic SPREAD prices for corners. I collected some and paper trialled until i was confident to go live on here. The price has changed. What's going on? It is likely that after a large weight of money (or a 'reliable' punter) has gone on a match, the companies will trim a quarter of a corner or so off the price. See the Racing Post newspaper for proof of prices before they get cut. Edited November 4, 2017 by muppet77 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted February 23, 2009 Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: corner spreads I'll be looking forward to this.... as i like a spread bet...BOL mate... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 23, 2009 Author Share Posted February 23, 2009 Re: corner spreads Cheers bud. All bets will be a buy or sell (over or under the quote) and always at one unit per corner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 27, 2009 Author Share Posted February 27, 2009 Re: corner spreads ok bets to follow. i have used the best spread price from Sporting Index and also Spreadex. for the bet, "o" = "over" or BUY - i think the corner count will be higher "u" = "under" or SELL - i thnk it will be lower. stake is how confident i am - an how many unit per corner. start bank = 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 27, 2009 Author Share Posted February 27, 2009 Re: corner spreads spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 27/2/09 FC Koln Bielefeld 11 o 1 28/2/09 Ath Bilbao Sevilla 10 u 2 28/2/09 Espanol Real Madrid 10 u 1 28/2/09 Auxerre Toulouse 9.5 o 1 28/2/09 Hamilton Rangers 10.25 o 2 28/2/09 Everton West Brom 11.75 u 1 28/2/09 Middlesbrough Liverpool 10.25 u 1 28/2/09 Arsenal Fulham 11 u 1 28/2/09 Chelsea Wigan 11 u 3 28/2/09 Oxford Torquay 11.2 o 1 1/3/09 Ath Madrid Barcelona 10.75 u 4 1/3/09 Betis Villarreal 10.75 u 2 1/3/09 Lyon Rennes 10 u 2 1/3/09 Werder Bremen Bayern Munich 11 u 1 1/3/09 Bolton Newcastle 11 o 1 1/3/09 Aston Villa Stoke 11.75 u 2 1/3/09 Sheffield United Birmingham 10.8 u 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: corner spreads whoops - got the stakes wrong. only the german game played so far - and i will count it. the table below replaces the original one. the stake reflects my confidence. spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 28/2/09 Ath Bilbao Sevilla 10 u 1 28/2/09 Hamilton Rangers 10.25 o 1 28/2/09 Chelsea Wigan 11 u 2 1/3/09 Betis Villarreal 10.75 u 1 1/3/09 Lyon Rennes 10 u 1 1/3/09 Aston Villa Stoke 11.75 u 1 1/3/09 Ath Madrid Barcelona 10.75 u 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: corner spreads GL with this mate, i'll be watching with intrest....your paper trailing at the mo or going banging in with real money ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: corner spreads just paper trailing at the mo although backtesting looks promising (doesn't it always?!) i have decided to trial it for 50 games or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted February 28, 2009 Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: corner spreads Nice one, what was the critera from the first table in whittling down the teams to what was left in the second ......or is that secret ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted February 28, 2009 Author Share Posted February 28, 2009 Re: corner spreads basically i have produced a prediction of the corner count (that part is top secret). i found by backtesting that the greater the difference betweeen my rating and the spread prediction, the greater the yield i had. diff bets bet% strike profit prof / bet yield spread AE me AE diff AE spr AAE me AAE diff AAE 0.00 289 100% 44% -64.50 -0.22 -7.5% 0.01 -0.02 -0.03 2.99 2.95 -0.03 0.05 260 90% 45% -45.50 -0.18 -6.0% 0.22 0.19 -0.03 2.90 2.86 -0.03 0.10 236 82% 47% -28.75 -0.12 -4.2% 0.16 0.13 -0.03 2.90 2.86 -0.04 0.15 206 71% 48% -13.75 -0.07 -2.4% 0.30 0.26 -0.04 2.84 2.79 -0.05 0.20 180 62% 48% 5.75 0.03 1.1% 0.35 0.30 -0.04 2.96 2.90 -0.06 0.25 170 59% 49% 18.00 0.11 3.6% 0.29 0.24 -0.05 2.94 2.87 -0.07 0.30 152 53% 51% 39.25 0.26 9.0% 0.20 0.14 -0.06 2.88 2.80 -0.08 0.35 134 46% 53% 41.75 0.31 10.9% 0.29 0.22 -0.08 2.90 2.80 -0.10 0.40 119 41% 55% 36.75 0.31 11.0% 0.25 0.16 -0.08 2.85 2.73 -0.12 0.45 99 34% 55% 19.75 0.20 7.2% 0.16 0.08 -0.08 2.79 2.66 -0.13 0.50 85 29% 60% 35.50 0.42 15.1% 0.14 0.03 -0.12 2.81 2.63 -0.19 0.55 72 25% 61% 40.00 0.56 19.6% 0.09 -0.07 -0.16 2.90 2.68 -0.22 0.60 55 19% 65% 35.00 0.64 22.5% 0.20 -0.04 -0.24 2.91 2.62 -0.29 0.65 49 17% 67% 32.25 0.66 21.8% 0.31 0.01 -0.30 3.11 2.79 -0.32 0.70 38 13% 74% 39.50 1.04 33.3% 0.80 0.47 -0.33 3.24 2.80 -0.44 0.75 32 11% 75% 39.00 1.22 39.0% 1.03 0.72 -0.31 3.25 2.78 -0.47 0.80 28 10% 75% 36.00 1.29 40.0% 1.32 0.86 -0.46 3.34 2.86 -0.48 0.85 22 8% 82% 33.75 1.53 45.5% 1.06 0.54 -0.51 3.53 2.92 -0.62 0.90 19 7% 79% 27.00 1.42 40.0% 0.99 0.44 -0.55 3.70 3.11 -0.59 0.95 16 6% 75% 18.00 1.13 30.8% 1.09 0.39 -0.71 3.78 3.25 -0.53 1.00 14 5% 86% 31.00 2.21 68.1% 2.14 1.47 -0.67 3.43 2.69 -0.74 1.05 11 4% 82% 26.50 2.41 64.6% 2.75 1.99 -0.76 3.89 3.13 -0.76 1.10 8 3% 88% 18.25 2.28 69.5% 1.91 0.99 -0.91 3.47 2.56 -0.91 1.15 6 2% 83% 12.75 2.13 61.4% 1.54 0.70 -0.84 3.63 2.79 -0.84 1.20 3 1% 67% 6.50 2.17 44.8% 2.42 1.13 -1.28 4.92 4.44 -0.48 1.25 1 0% 100% 9.00 9.00 100.0% 9.25 7.82 -1.43 9.25 7.82 -1.43 AE = average error AAE = average absolute error Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Posted March 1, 2009 Share Posted March 1, 2009 Re: corner spreads Small profit despite the disaster at the Chelsea match. Good luck with this. F. P.S.: Please email me, I might be able to help you registering corner spreads. You already got my address. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 2, 2009 Author Share Posted March 2, 2009 Re: corner spreads spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 27/2/09 FC Koln Bielefeld 11.00 o 1 7 -4.00 28/2/09 Ath Bilbao Sevilla 10 u 1 7 3.00 28/2/09 Hamilton Rangers 10.25 o 1 17 6.75 28/2/09 Chelsea Wigan 11 u 2 20 -18.00 1/3/09 Betis Villarreal 10.75 u 1 10 0.75 1/3/09 Lyon Rennes 10 u 1 9 1.00 1/3/09 Aston Villa Stoke 11.75 u 1 12 -0.25 1/3/09 Ath Madrid Barcelona 10.75 u 3 9 5.25 -14% yield -5.50 profit i am well pleased with this profit after the chelsea game lost me 18 points!! i really believe in this and will judge it in th elong term. one game tonight is flagged up: spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 2/3/09 Histon Cambridge 11.00 o 1 F, i have emailed you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted March 2, 2009 Share Posted March 2, 2009 Re: corner spreads Nice start Muppet, i'll keep an eye on tonights game as Histon like to bang the ball forward as quickly as they can!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 3, 2009 Author Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: corner spreads Histon Camb was spot on! ALL TIME 9 bets these bets 1 bets 56% wins 0% wins 11% level 100% level 33% losses 0% losses 39.00 staked 0.00 staked -14% yield 0% yield -5.50 profit 0.00 profit spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 2/3/09 Histon Cambridge 11.00 o 1 11 0.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 3, 2009 Author Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: corner spreads ALL TIME 9 bets these bets 0 bets 56% wins 0% wins 11% level 0% level 33% losses 0% losses 39.00 staked 0.00 staked -14% yield 0% yield -5.50 profit 0.00 profit spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 3/3/09 Liverpool Sunderland 11.80 u 2 3/3/09 West Brom Arsenal 11 u 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 4, 2009 Author Share Posted March 4, 2009 Re: corner spreads ALL TIME 11 bets these bets 2 bets 64% wins 100% wins 9% level 0% level 27% losses 0% losses 50.60 staked 11.60 staked 12% yield 100% yield 6.10 profit 11.60 profit spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 3/3/09 Liverpool Sunderland 11.80 u 2 8 7.60 3/3/09 West Brom Arsenal 11 u 1 7 4.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 11 bets, +12% yield Good going fella, keep it up.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 4, 2009 Author Share Posted March 4, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 11 bets, +12% yield spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 4/3/09 Kilmarnock Celtic 10.50 o 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 5, 2009 Author Share Posted March 5, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 11 bets, +12% yield ALL TIME 12 bets these bets 1 bets 67% wins 100% wins 8% level 0% level 25% losses 0% losses 54.10 staked 3.50 staked 18% yield 100% yield 9.60 profit 3.50 profit spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 4/3/09 Kilmarnock Celtic 10.50 o 1 14 3.50 :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 7, 2009 Author Share Posted March 7, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 12 bets, +18% yield spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 7/3/09 Lille Lyon 9.75 u 2 8/3/09 St Etienne Nantes 9.75 u 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted March 7, 2009 Share Posted March 7, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 12 bets, +18% yield Nice winner tonight M, well done :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 8, 2009 Author Share Posted March 8, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 12 bets, +18% yield Take me home mama! cheers clarky! :clap ALL TIME 13 bets these bets 1 bets 69% wins 100% wins 8% level 0% level 23% losses 0% losses 65.60 staked 11.50 staked 32% yield 100% yield 21.10 profit 11.50 profit spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 7/3/09 Lille Lyon 9.75 u 2 4 11.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 9, 2009 Author Share Posted March 9, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 13 bets, +32% yield ALL TIME 14 bets these bets 1 bets 71% wins 100% wins 7% level 0% level 21% losses 0% losses 67.10 staked 1.50 staked 34% yield 100% yield 22.60 profit 1.50 profit spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 8/3/09 St Etienne Nantes 9.75 u 2 9 1.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 10, 2009 Author Share Posted March 10, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield just as a point of interest i am going to see how the ratings model copes with the Champions' League. I do not expect it to do as well as the domestic model, but would like to test it. i will keep separate stats. Games involving Greek, Dutch and Portuguese teams are not included due to lack of data. spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 10/3/09 Liverpool Real Madrid 10.25 o 3 10/3/09 Juventus Chelsea 10.5 o 1 11/3/09 Barcelona Lyon 10.25 u 3 :hope we shall see - crash and burn or a success story? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted March 10, 2009 Share Posted March 10, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield Muppet, it will be interesting to see how the Champions League goes for you, but I don't think that I would like to use ratings generated in domestic leagues for predictions in the Champions League. The CL tends to see a totally different brand of football (IMO). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted March 10, 2009 Share Posted March 10, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield Good Shout on the Scousers M, second time Chelsea have let us down...well done & keep up the good work.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 11, 2009 Author Share Posted March 11, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield EURO 2 bets these bets 2 bets 50% wins 50% wins 0% level 0% level 50% losses 50% losses 15.75 staked 15.75 staked 43% yield 43% yield 6.75 profit 6.75 profit spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 10/3/09 Liverpool Real Madrid 10.25 o 3 14 11.25 10/3/09 Juventus Chelsea 10.5 o 1 6 -4.50 Barce Lyon tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 12, 2009 Author Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield BOOM! EURO 3 bets these bets 1 bets 67% wins 100% wins 0% level 0% level 33% losses 0% losses 22.50 staked 6.75 staked 60% yield 100% yield 13.50 profit 6.75 profit spread stake per date home away corners bet corner corners profit 11/3/09 Barcelona Lyon 10.25 u 3 8 6.75 :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 12, 2009 Author Share Posted March 12, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield another indicator of success so far - average absolute error (AAE) AAE = the absolute error between the prediction and the result. so if the midpoint of the spread is 10.25 my rating predicts 10.45 and there are 11 corners my AAE is 0.55 the bookies' AAE is 0.75 in this example, so i am slightly more accurate. i have also recorded the predictions of matches that have not be bet on and have generated the following summary: No. my AAE spread AAE diff AAE yield all matches 54 3.25 3.35 -0.10 NA all bets 20 2.90 3.18 -0.28 18% non bets 34 3.46 3.46 0.00 NA 1 units staked 11 2.23 2.50 -0.27 43% 2 units staked 7 4.34 4.68 -0.34 9% 3 units staked 2 1.57 1.63 -0.06 8% on ALL 54 live TV games, my AAE is 0.10 corners better than the bookies, and 0.28 better on my bets. admittedly there is still a very low number of bets and matches, but it is a pleasing start. onwards and upwards. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted March 13, 2009 Author Share Posted March 13, 2009 Re: corner spreads: 14 bets, +34% yield spread stake per date home away corners bet corner 14/3/09 Ath Bilbao Real Madrid 10.00 u 1 15/3/09 Aston Villa Tottenham 12.00 u 2 15/3/09 Bristol City Cardiff 11.00 u 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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