New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:30 York: Ingleby Lady 1pt win 25/1 Stan James David O'Meara has been going great guns and was amongst the winners yesterday at Ascot and Thirsk. He takes over Ingleby Lady from David Barron and it will be no easy task to find improvement after leaving that excellent handler. However, Ingleby Lady has only thirteen starts to her name so there could be some scope and interestingly she does go well fresh, winning on both her two previous seasonal openers. Worth a shot in a wide open race, with course and going to suit.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Saturday 2:35 Doncaster: Secret Asset 1pt win 16/1 Bajan Tryst 1pt win 20/1 & Joe Packet 1pt win 16/1 all Paddy Power Secret Asset tuned up for this by winning the Symphony Group Handicap at York on the 17th August over this specialist distance. That should stand the grey gelding in good stead for this. He also won at Goodwood in July and is now rated 100. Its not easy to win off such a mark, however he is in fine form. Bajan Trust was second in this race last year and it looks as though this race has been the plan all year. It the 2010 renewal Bajan Tryst had Deacon Blues behind and only just failed to hang on from Poets Place the favourite who was on a roll at the time. While he is three pounds higher this time round, his trainer Kevin Ryan knows what it takes to win this race having trained Halmahera to win it three times. Joe Packet has had a light campaign for a sprinter, but has run in to form in his last two outings, winning at Windsor and going down by a length to Desert Law at Bath in a conditions race. That was pretty good form and interestingly was over five and a half furlongs, as if his in form trainer Johnny Portman was having a dry run for this race. He should also give a good account in a typically competitive renewal.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:00 Doncaster: Lyric of Light 1pt e/w 8/1 Bet365 (1/4 123) Lyric of Light has only won a maiden compared with some of the Group form on offer, however as that was her first outing there could be more to come. Reading the Godolphin website, when Mickael Barzalona got off Lyric of Light he is reported as saying, there was plenty in the tank and she ran very green. Last season White Moonstone won this for Godolphin, sadly she has not seen the track this year, but she was highly thought of by the Maktoum stable and it's interesting that they give Lyric of Light the go ahead here.

[cpo]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

3:00 Doncaster: Lyric of Light 1pt e/w 8/1 Bet365 (1/4 123) Lyric of Light has only won a maiden compared with some of the Group form on offer, however as that was her first outing there could be more to come. Reading the Godolphin website, when Mickael Barzalona got off Lyric of Light he is reported as saying, there was plenty in the tank and she ran very green. Last season White Moonstone won this for Godolphin, sadly she has not seen the track this year, but she was highly thought of by the Maktoum stable and it's interesting that they give Lyric of Light the go ahead here.

I knew I had seen that someone tipped this up. Won well... looks pretty smart along with the Gosden horse :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Good stuff mate, as always. :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Gents, 3:10 Doncaster: Man of Action 1pt win 8/1 Bet365 Man of Action's recent form figures are none too inspiring and he has been deserted by Frankie Dettori, however he could still go well here. His last run at Goodwood was pretty good despite his poor draw and not getting a clear passage. Looking at those who finished in front of Man of Action at Goodwood, Pintura the third finished second in a York handicap and the fifth Dance and Dance was a neck second in a Group 3 at Salisbury. So the form has a solid feel. Often when Godolphin run two in a race there is not much between them and Saeed Bin Suroor has been going pretty well of late.

[mowgli77]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

3:00 Doncaster: Lyric of Light 1pt e/w 8/1 Bet365 (1/4 123) Lyric of Light has only won a maiden compared with some of the Group form on offer, however as that was her first outing there could be more to come. Reading the Godolphin website, when Mickael Barzalona got off Lyric of Light he is reported as saying, there was plenty in the tank and she ran very green. Last season White Moonstone won this for Godolphin, sadly she has not seen the track this year, but she was highly thought of by the Maktoum stable and it's interesting that they give Lyric of Light the go ahead here.

Well done Steve, great priced winner there. :ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheers Phil :ok, 2:50 Goodwood: Blanche Dubawi 1pt win 7/1 Bet365 Blanche Dubawi needs to step up to win this, however there is a good chance she might. She has picked up a couple of decent handicaps, and in between had little luck in running at Newmarket. The last win at Goodwood could be significant as so often the ability to act on this track makes the difference. Blanche Dubawi also acts on this good to soft surface, so could be worth a go.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 The Curragh: Bible Belt 1pt win 9/4 Paddy Power Bible Belt lines up here unbeaten as a three year old, and while Banimpire will be a tough nut to crack, Mrs Harrington's progressive filly has a good chance of keeping her unblemished record. Bible Belt seems to get better the further she goes and her latest win over nine furlongs here was a good effort given she met trouble in running. Jessica Harrington is in decent form and Bible Belt looks to be a filly on the up.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:10 Listowel: Blazing Tempo 1pt win 7/1 Ladbrokes Blazing Tempo looks to have a fair bit on here with 12 lbs more than when winning the Galway Plate, however she represents the powerful combination of Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh who have a fine record in the race. And there is the feeling that this lightly raced seven year old could still be improving. She has a fifty percent strike rate over the larger obstacles and will handle this soft going, it could just be that Blazing Tempo has enough class to see her home here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Saturday 3:20 Ayr: Our Jonathan 1pt win 22/1 Coral, Kaldoun Kindgom 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 & Croisultan 1pt win 16/1 Betfred Our Jonathan may still have all on to turn the tables with Pepper Lane, however he ran very well behind that rival at Ripon and the likely strong pace should suit again here. The ability to handle seven furlongs could also be a factor for encouagement as in recent renewals horses with form over the extra distance have performed well. Kevin Ryan knows what it takes to win and this race and has gone close too, so Our Jonathan looks to have a fair bit going for him. A four year old he could still be improving. Kaldoun Kingdom ran in this race last year when he was beaten four and a half lengths by Redford. That day Kaldoun Kingdom was on the wrong side (he may be again) however he is seven pounds lower in the handicap and although he has not run since June he can go well fresh. Last time out in June he looked to retain all his ability when running on over five furlongs when meeting some trouble in running. Off the same mark of 98 here, a decent run looks on the cards. The best prices about Croisultan have gone, however this horse proven on a softer surface still looks worth a small interest. He has been mainly running in pattern company of late which can often be hard to assess back in handicap company. Looking through his form, his last win was in a Listed race at Fairyhouse where Portland winner Santo Padre was behind, hard to know quite what to make of that, but a positive rather than a negative. Fit and in form he is another that could go close.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:55 Ayr: Layla's Hero 1pt win 10/1 Bet365 When something looks too good to be true it usually is, however at 10/1 it could be worth siding with Layla's Hero. He races off 85 here after picking up a penalty for his win at Newcastle. That win was on soft ground too and his first run back at six furlongs for a while. All his previous wins with David Nicholls had been over six furlongs and this was Layla's Hero's first try at it for John Quinn and he won nicely after giving ground away at the start. He moved through the race well although he appeared to be tiring in the last half furlong. In the past Layla's Hero won two Listed races when he was rated 96 & 103. There is just a doubt looking at that final half furlong that Layla's Hero is not quite back to his old level of 103, even so, he may still have just enough in hand.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:30 Newmarket: Big Occasion 1pt win 14/1 & Palazzo Bianco 1pt win 9/2 both William Hill In the past if a horse joined Martin Pipe, he was often able to improve it, and while it won't be easy to improve a former Aiden O'Brien inmate, David Pipe has inherited his father's touch and Big Occasion looks likely to go well. He is five pounds higher here than his last win, howver he is lightly raced and has plenty of scope. He has been gelded too which should help him settle. Palazzo Bianco is very lightly raced and as the only three year old in the field gets a handy 13lbs from his elders. With plenty of scope he looks likely to relish this longer trip. He is up six pounds since his last win and the form was not enhanced by the second Huff And Puff, however with John Gosden in fine form he is worth an interest in the race too.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Newbury: Redact 1pt win 9/1 Betfred If you put a line through Redact's last run then he possess a profile that was very much on the up. He got off the mark at the first time of asking at Lingfield and then landed a Novice event at Salisbury only having to be pushed out to win by five lengths. Redact then finished well at Newbury in the Super Sprint, and based on that, his run behind Gerfalcon at Ripon in the Two year Old Trophy was a disappointment. Presumably, Richard Hannon must feel that running was all wrong, as Redact now steps up to a Group 2. Redact is reunited with Richard Hughes here and with Richard Hannon having a really impressive strike rate of 23% and a huge level stakes profit over last two weeks, there is good reason to hope that Redact will bounce back here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Newbury: Astrophysical Jet 1pt win 20/1 Boylesports It may be worth taking a chance with Astrophysical Jet with her trainer in good form. She will need to leave this season's running well behind. That is a big ask, however, her two Group 3 wins last year marked her down as a sprinter going places. She is a five furlong specialist and although she has not run on this surface, she is by Dubawi, so she should go on this softer surface. Graham Gibbons is in the saddle again and although off seventy seven days, maybe Astrophysical Jet has been aimed at the chance to repeat last years win.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Newmarket: Tenth Star 1pt win 5/1 Coral Tenth Star was a smooth winner of a Listed race at Leopardstown in June only having to be pushed out to score comfortably. Next time out he was well behind Remember Alexander (when 1/2 favourite) again at Leopardstown. If that was Tenth Star's true running then he is up against it here, however, chances are he is capable of much better and this firmer surface and extra furlong could see him in a better light. Often there is very little to choose between the Aidan O'Brien runners, and this well bred colt could leave his last run well behind.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:20 Haydock: Cheveton 1pt win 6/1 Ladbrokes Cheveton is going for a double here, after winning at Ayr last year he followed up at Haydock the following week. He is looking to follow a similar path today. Last Saturday he won the ultra competitive Ayr Silver Cup and with the softish ground in his favour again he could come good off 93, which is just a pound higher than last year. Looking at last year's race he beat Hoof It, its maybe wise not to read that too literally as Hoof It has improved a lot this year, however Cheveton did not get a clear run so it was nevertheless solid form. Dale Swift is again in the plate and Richard Price's horses are in form too.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:50 Newmarket: Questioning 1pt win 11/1 William Hill Questioning ran well with cheekpieces last time when he was a staying on second in a Listed race over a mile at Haydock. Today he has the visor on and steps up a furlong. It could be that this Cambridgeshire distance is ideal for this colt, the good to firm going should be just about right too. Looking through Questioning's form he only has a maiden win to his name, yet he has been highly tried contesting Listed and Group races all summer. Earlier in the season Questioning was just over five lengths behind Pour Moi at Saint-cloud. That sort of entry indicates that Questioning is well thought of and John Gosden has a fine record in this race winning two of the last four. Questioning has already run at Newmarket three times (twice on this course) and he seemed to handle the dip and rising ground fine. Dangers all over the place and while the longer prices have gone, 11/1 seems worth a go, for a horse well in at the weights.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:10 Chester: Spanish Plume 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 Course form usually counts for a lot at Chester and Spanish Plume just got up here last time after having to come wide. The bare form. a head win in a blanket finish in a class 5 race, is nothing special. However, he did come with a powerful late run, coming round several rivals and at the line was still gathering momentum. Presumably his connections think there is more to come too, as they are running from out of the handicap and sharply up in class. This gelding could have more improvement in him, as he has only four turf starts to his name.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:50 Ascot: The Cheka 1pt e/w 25/1 Victor Chandler Its a touch unusual that as a five year old The Cheka has not run in a handicap before. Having spent all his recent runs in Group company this represents a drop in class. And while to run well off 108 will be a fine effort, there was more than a hint from his last run at Doncaster that he is coming to hand. The Cheka seems to go on almost any surface, however he has won on a firmish surface and opened his account at the first time of asking, by ten lengths, over course and distance. May be drawn on the wrong side but worth a shot at the odds.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:25 Newmarket: Buzkashi 2pts e/w 20/1 Bet365 (1/4 odds 123) Buzkashi appears to have a pretty decent each way chance after following through the form lines of her debut. First time out, Buzkashi was third behind Fallen For You in a Newmarket maiden. Although Fallen For You was a fairly comfortable winner, Buzkashi stayed nicely from off the pace. Fallen For You next time out went down by a length to Lyric of Light with today's even money favourite Samitar three lengths back in third. Its dangerous to read too much in to collateral form, however, on that its not beyond hope that Buzkashi can get close to Samitar. Next time out Buzkashi had no sort of run and almost fell over at Leicester. Neil Callan has gone to Ascot, which with such a big prize up for grabs here, in an open race apart from one, is a little concern, however Steve Drowne takes over in the plate and is a top notcher. Roger Varian continues in fine form and has been doing well with his two year olds all season.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Figures for the 1st January to 30th September 2011 Points: Staked 270 Returned 422.79 Profit 152.79 ROI 56.59% Bets: Struck 220 Profitable 37 Strike rate 16.82% Our Jonathan was the highlight for September winning the Ayr Gold, and later in the month there were mixed feelings when Deacon Blues won so well after being a non running ante post bet at Haydock - that's racing !!

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:50 Fontwell: Mr Valentino 1pt win 7/1 Blue Square David Bass will probably earn his riding fee here whatever happens. Last time out Mr Valentino got almost tailed off, then came with a late potentially winning run only to hand the race to Monty's Revenge by veering across the track. Monty's Revenge has won again since, albeit in a chase. If this quirky figure of eight track keeps Mr Valentino interested he should go close.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:15 Longchamp: Treasure Beach 1pt e/w 28/1 Totesport (1/4 odds 1234) & Nakayama Festa 1pt win 33/1 Boylesports Both of these look to be overpriced, particularly as there are a few question marks over some of the market leaders with the firmer going than usually expected at this time of year. Treasure Beach looks a bit of an after thought for the powerful Aidan O'Brien stable, however he has only raced five times this year, which includes winning the Irish Derby and being pipped at the post by Pour Moi at Epsom. And as a season opener Treasure Beach went down by a head to Nathaniel. Last time out Treasure Beach won over ten furlongs at Arlington in a Grade One,and that was in the middle of August so he should be recovered from that. A wide draw is not ideal, however, he could be taken to the front and make a run for home as they swing in to the straight proper. Usually hold up horses do well, but they may have all on to catch Treasure Beach. Nakayama Festa, ran really well in last year's race and then suffered an injury in the Japan Cup. If he has recovered, and the jury is out after an inconclusive run in the Prix Foy, then 33/1 would be very big. The form of last year's Arc looks good, Workforce was a fine winner and Sarafina had no luck in running back in third, however Nakayama Festa showed there he is capable of giving weight to the younger generation and if he can get in to the race from his nightmare draw he could surprise. Both selections go well on a good surface.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 Ludlow: Baily Storm 1pt win 6/1 Bet365 Lawney Hill is very good at improving horses when they are transferred to her. Hugh Taylor highlighted this is the past and it has proved a profitable way to pick winners in the long term. Baily Storm has more letters than numbers after his name of late, and it will need some magic to turn him around in the short time Baily Storm has been with his new yard. However, off just 107 here and with some money around for him, there is hope.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:10 Ludlow: Jolly Roger 1pt win 100/30 Stan James Bit surprising to see Jolly Roger third in the betting. He has not jumped a fence in public - however Paul Maloney puts his faith in him and that hint looks worth following, with Definite All Star already having had plenty of chances and Wester Ross falling last time.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Worcester: Borough Academy 1pt win 4/1 Boylesports Sticking with the first run for Lawney Hill theme, although not sucessful yesterday, it could pay dividends today with Borough Academy. Bumper form is hard to weigh up and and often dosen't translate to hurdles. However, Borough Academy has shaped well on all three appearences and although he has only been with Mrs Hill a short while she may not need to bring about too much improvement in her new charge for him to get involved here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Saturday 3:50 Newmarket: Bernie The Bolt 1pt e/w 25/1 Bet365 (1/4 12345) Last year Bernie The Bolt was the ante post favourite for this race before injury put paid to his chances. It will be a fine training performance if Andrew Balding can get him to win this after a 416 day layoff, however, these days those sort of comebacks do happen. And its reasonable to assume he is pretty straight to be entered. If you put aside the time off for injury Bernie The Bolt has some excellent credentials. He won over course and distance in September 2009 and then won very well at Ascot in the stayers handicap at the Shergar Cup meeting. Those wins came off 87 and 92 and Bernie The Bolt, who acts on the likely good to firm going is off 95 here. All things considered its worth chancing that Bernie The Bolt is over his injury at 25/1.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Saturday 2:35 Newmarket: Tough As Nails 1pt e/w 22/1 Stan James (1/5 123) Tough As Nails has produced some very good form when encountering a sound surface and this drop back to six furlongs could be in his favour too. In May he was only beaten a short head by Power at The Curragh and the second to Lilbourne Lad at the same course in June reads well too. There is a concern that his form may be tailing off, however he was running over seven and on yielding to soft the last twice. With the underfoot conditions at Newmarket much more to his liking he could go close at a decent price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:20 York: Rasaman 1pt e/w 25/1 Coral (1/4 1234) Rasaman has only had four outings this season so far which is a light campaign for a sprinter. He drops back to the minimum trip here and he is three pounds lower than his last winning mark. Rasaman has run some of his best races at Musselburgh yet there is no reason to believe he is a one course specialist as he has notched up victories at a variety of tracks. In this wide open handicap, Rasaman should get a good tow in to the race from his draw and then with a clear run through he might go close.