New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Newbury: Astrophysical Jet 3pts win 9/2 Bet365 Astrophysical Jet looks to have a lot going for her in this Group 3. She is a sprinter on the up, a filly in form and handled by a trainer whose horses are running well. Astrophysical Jet may just have benefited from the run of the race and the best ground on the stands side at the Curragh last time, however there is no doubt she took full advantage and was an impressive winner. Her previous run behind Borderlescott at Goodwood looks solid too, and a reproduction of those efforts will make her hard to beat.

[RussP]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Absolutely fantastic today, Steve. Didn't Redford travel well? As soon as Frankie got a run, it kicked clear and won going away. Excellent winner. Nice one too with AJ at Newbury:notworthy

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Russ, yes you are spot on, once Frankie got out - he shot away. Funny olde game no winners for ages then one after another.... Cheers, Steve

[StuSimmy]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Well done today mate, two cracking winners :ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Stu :ok 4:15 Ascot Saturday 25th September: Hearts of Fire 2pts win 1pt place 33/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds) Hearts Of Fire on the face of it has a difficult task taking on Canford Cliffs, Makfi, and Rip Van Winkle, however if he can reproduce his running at Ascot in the St James's Palace Stakes he might cause a surprise. Hearts Of Fire was travelling really well up the straight and was then hampered twice before only going down by a length and a quarter. It could be a case of horses for courses as his form has not really been at that level elsewhere. If he could reproduce that Royal meeting run, his price of 33/1 will look very big. Recent winners have been at the front of the market but there have been a couple of shocks in the past ten years.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Ascot: Mia's Boy 2pts win 1pt place 40/1 William Hill Mia's Boy looks interesting in this big field handicap. He had a good 'back end' last season, finishing up with a sequence of runs that read 2 1 2. Mia's Boy has form on the prevailing going is effective at this specialist distance and is drawn low. Its usually best to be drawn near to one of the rails. Adam Beschizza adds futher hope, he is four from ten for the stable, with a healthy level stakes profit. Mia's Boy goes well fresh so the layoff of 101 days should not be a problem. Jockey and trainer combined for a winner earlier this week.

[Ka4by]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread HI guys i know this has nothing to do with this thread but a bit of help, any1 know of any sites where i can get american horse racing form or any useful forums? thanks wud be much appreciated lads

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread I'd suggest the DRF - Daily Racing form as a starting place, thats the American equivalent of the Racing Post. As to forums, I've no idea, I suspect that's a job for google and then checking a few out....sorry its not that helpful !! 3:10 Haydock: Ginger Ted 2pts win 25/1 Stan James & Summerinthecity 1pt win 20/1 Betfred If you take out Ginger Ted's last run at Ayr then he would almost be at the head of the market. His penultimate run looks very good in light of the placed horse's next outings. Mango Music and Revue Princess both won next time and the fourth Avontuur was second, so that form looks rock solid and was on good to soft. Prior to that Ginger Ted had been second to Colonel Mak and that form was enhanced last weekend too. Ginger Ted needs to bounce back here on softer going he could go close. Summerinthecity has underaceived so far, but there is a feeling there is a handicap in him somewhere, and his best run so far was on a softer surface.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:00 Ascot: Prompter 2pts win 18/1 Coral Prompter looks interesting on his handicap debut here for several reasons. Michael Bell's horses are running to form and he links up with Jamie Spencer here; and the two have an excellent record when they combine. Michael Bell also has a profitable record with his handicap debutants. Prompter steps up to a mile and a half for the first time today and by Motivator out of Montjeu that should not be a problem and given that pedigree, every reason to think he will enjoy the underfoot conditions. Prompter has also run well here on two previous visits.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread A light betting month, however managed to turn the tide, with a profit of 32.55 points and a ROI of 56.03% Figures for 1st January to 30th September 2010 Points: Staked 751.00 Returned 892.49 Profit 141.49 ROI 18.84% Bets: Struck 391 Profitable 74 Strike rate 18.93%

[Boulder5111]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Well done Steve, that's a great ROI and a really well put together thread. Good luck for the final third of the year. :ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Boulder :ok Cambrigeshire Saturday: Elliptical 2pts win 1pt place 16/1 Totesport (12345) Elliptical lines up here after running second to Forte dei Marmi at Newbury two weeks ago. That form looks solid and while Kieren Fallon rightly got all the attention that day on the winner, Elliptical was comfortably clear of the third Tempokea. That race at Newbury has been a stepping stone to several Cambridgeshire winners in the past and although this is a step back in distance, several previous winners have also won over a mile and a quarter, Elliptical has done that, albeit in a maiden. Elliptical has the profile of an improving horse and with a decent high draw, and proven course form he looks capable of going well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Sunday Longchamp Arc De Triomphe: Cape Blanco 2pts win 12/1 William Hill & Sarafina 1pt win 10/1 Stan James Cape Blanco put up an impressive performance to win the Irish Champion Stakes a month ago. Because he slipped the field his effort may have been underestimated and he is overlooked by Johnny Murtagh again. Looking at Cape Blanco's pedigree he has Urban Sea (heavy ground Arc winner) in his pedigree and has won on soft going in Ireland, which is usually pretty bottomless, so he should stay and he should handle the underfoot conditions. Sarafina is very lightly raced. Only four runs and three of those have been in Group Ones. In the Prix Vermille she ran on late to only go down by just over a length. Sarafina handles the going and with plenty of improvement possible, she could well be in the shake up.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 12:35 Longchamp: Planet Five 2pts win 16/1 Betfred French trained runners don't have a great record in this race, however Planet Five handles the soft going and his win at Chantilly in a Group 2 in June indicates that this lightly raced four year old could improve enough to take this. The seven furlongs at Deauville last time out was probably too far and with his trainer Pascal Bary in good form a big run looks on the cards.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Ascot: Icon Dream 2pts win 22/1 Victor Chandler & Hunterview 1pt win 12/1 Paddy Power Icon Dream may be worth chancing in this open handicap. He has some respectable form in Group races yet is lining up here off 101 with nine stone. With Sadlers Wells and Northern Dancer in his pedigree he will handle both the going and the trip. Icon Dream has shown a questionable attitude, however with all the equipment on today and Jimmy Fortune to make his mind up he could improve. And can't help but think that David Watchman would not travel over unless he thought Icon Dream could run a decent race. Hunterview represents David Pipe and like his father before him, anything he runs on the flat has to be respected. The stable has not been really firing so far, but Hunterview is sure to be ready and his last run on the flat looks solid when beating Hillview Boy on an easy surface at Doncaster. That runner up went on to run second in the November handicap.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:55 Ascot: Tazahum 2pts win 3/1 Stan James Big Issue looks as though he will be hard to beat, however looking back through his form his last run away win was in a match, so it may be worth siding with Tazahum. He was not fancied in an all weather maiden at Kempton, where he wore the second colours. On that basis, he may not have been showing much on the gallops. With that run under his belt, he could step up massively here (need to). Looking at Tazahum's pedigree the Racing Post describes Redoute's Choice as 'the runaway leading sire in Australia' which gives further encouragement. Sir Michael Stoute is 5/25 in last fourteen days and does well with his two year olds here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:15 York: Pallantes Cross 1pt win 40/1 William Hill Pallantes Cross would need to come back to form to take this, however with a drop back to mile and an easier surface he just might. Often Mark Johnston's horses can put in a couple of modest efforts and then find their form again. Pallantes Cross's run at Ffos Las behind King of Reason was decent.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:45 York: Nemo Spirit 2pts win 14/1 Bet365 Nemo Spirit has been lightly raced this year. He ran in May, then twice in September, and his latest outing was his best so far. Stepping up in distance and on the softer surface he appreciates could see the best run this season. Looking at Nemo Spirits' record, he has won on soft and at York, from a higher mark and in better class. The form is in the book, however the big question is can he reproduce that for his new(ish) stable now? At 14/1 worth chancing he can.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Dewhurst Saturday 2:25 Newmarket: Roderic O'Connor 1pt win 74/1 & Seville 1pt win 59/1 Betfair With Frankel and Dream Ahead bringing huge reputations in to the race (with Saamidd not too far behind) a couple of the others seem well overpriced. It would be a massive step up for either Roderic O'Connor or Seville to win. However they are very well bred, their maiden form is promising, and how often are horses trained by Aiden O'Brien available at these sort of odds?

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Newmarket: Sentry Duty 2pts win 10/1 & Dayia 1pt e/w 20/1 (12345) Both Bet365 With Nicky Henderson and hurdlers having a good record in the race, Sentry Duty looks to have a strong chance. He has won over the course and as he goes well fresh too. A high draw has also been key in this race and Sentry Duty will come out of stall 26. With Olivier Peslier taking the ride, all looks in place for a big run. Dayia ran well when fourth in this race last year and horses often come back the following year and put up another good performance. Dayia was outclassed in the Group 2 Doncaster Cup last time out, however her previous run at York looks solid and Dayia has been pretty lightly raced this year, which indicates this may be her season long target.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:00 Newmarket: Debussy 1pt e/w 16/1 Bet365 (1/3 odds) Debussy won the Arlington Million coming with a fine late run. Back from America and rested he could pull off a mini surprise here. Debussey has something to find on earlier running with some of these, yet he might just be on the up. And with John Gosden in good form and having a fine course record, Debussy's chances may be underestimated a touch today by the odds compliers.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:25 Doncaster: Seville 2pts win 7/1 Ladbrokes Before the jockey bookings were announced Seville was shorter than Master of the Hounds on the exchanges, and last week Seville was trading shorter than Roderic O'Connor before missing Newmarket for this race. That would seem to imply that Seville is no 'second string'. His form looks pretty solid and with only two runs to his name he could step up again here, especially if there is more rain and for the extra furlong.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:55 Doncaster: Harry Patch 2pts win 5/1 Bet365 Harry Patch looks just about backable at 5/1 in this huge field. The form of his last two races have worked out well. On Friday Mac's Power, the horse Harry's Patch beat at Yarmouth, ran out a comfortable winner at Doncaster after previously going in at Kempton. And Harry Patch's second to Poet's Place with Damika in third, looks good too with that winner following up off a ten pound higher mark next time. Harry's Patch had a set back so missed the Portland and he is dropping back to five furlongs here, but can't help but think there could be plenty more to come, whereas quite a few of his rivals are well exposed.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:10 Aintree: Cheshire Prince 1pt win 18/1 & Drumshambo 1pt win 20/1 Both Stan James Cheshire Prince won first time out last season and lines up here after a 162 day break, and with Neil King in reasonable form he could pop up at a decent price. Cheshire Prince is lightly raced over hurdles and handles the softer surface. Drumshambo represents Venetia Williams and is another lightly raced sort who handles the soft. He started late last season, yet made a winning start. Drumshambo has plenty of scope for improvement.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:20 Southwell: Rascal In the Mix 1pt win 16/1 Victor Chandler & Royal Holiday 1pt win 7/1 Boylesports Southwell with its unique surface can sometimes produce some strange results and horses either act very well on it or not at all. Rascal In the Mix has only run once at Southwell but stayed on quite pleasingly on debut over shorter than today. Has an American pedigree and reunited with Amy Ryan could pop up at a decent price. Royal Holiday has rock solid Southwell form and while higher in the handicap, could well improve again for the surface and go close here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:50 Southwell: Best Known Secret 2pts win 13/2 Bet365 Seem to remember Hugh Taylor saying that horses by Captain Rio have a good record at Southwell. (No time to check that - so this could be 100% wrong - and prove why bets should be fully researched!!) Few miles on the clock and looks as though needs 6F.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 8:40 Kempton: Bushy Dell 1pt win 28/1 Betfair & 1pt e/w 22/1 Sportingbet Bushy Dell ran really well last time out at Wolverhampton after being off the track since March. That run where she appeared to run out of puff should bring her on and off a mark of 58 is capable of going very close.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Ascot: Exmoor Ranger 2pts win 20/1 Stan James & Dovers Hill 1pt win 8/1 Bet365 Exmoor Ranger lines up here for Victor Dartnell whose horses are running to form. Exmoor Ranger goes well right handed having won at Exeter and Sandown which can be quite testing tracks, so he should cope with Ascot. the ground and trip should be no problem and he could go well at a decent price. Dover's Hill is lightly raced and while his inexperience may count against him, there is plenty of scope for improvement and is another that has run well going right handed.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:15 Ascot: Levera 1pt win 28/1, Alsadaa 1pt win 25/1 & Hibiki 1pt win 20/1 all Victor Chandler Get Me Out of Here looks a solid favourite and Tocca Ferro looks unexposed, however an outsider could pop up here. Levera has had a couple of runs on the flat and if he retains his ability over hurdles then he could go close. Presumably must have been showing something to be kept in training. Alsadaa goes well here and also at Sandown. If he has forgotten about his fall last time out, he may take some pegging back. And Hibiki, only won a seller last time out, this is a lot tougher, however if this signals a return to form could be well handicapped. Philip Hobbs in fine form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:00 Wetherby: Luso's Lad 1pt e/w 33/1 Sportingbet Karasenir has a lot going for him, however he has not been foot perfect and could be found out with his penalty. At 33/1 Luso's Lad looks worth a small each way interest. He ran pretty well over hurdles and from a powerful stable and ridden with a little more restraint he could pull off a surprise.