New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread None today, so its a loss of 11.05 points on the month against 94 points staked for a ROI of -11.76%. Figures for 1st January to 30th April 2010 Points: Staked 350 Returned 436.05 Profit 86.05 ROI 24.59% Bets: Struck 185 Profitable 38 Strike rate 20.54% (Will include points staked on 2000 Guineas in next month's figures)

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:55 Newmarket: Riggins 2pts win 1pt place 16/1 Ladbrokes Riggins could go close if he is back to his best. This son of Cape Cross has very few miles on the clock and was a comfortable winner at Goodwood in May last year after meeting all sorts of trouble in running here at HQ when favourite for a mile handicap on his previous outing. After the win at Goodwood he was ante post favourite for the Royal Hunt Cup. Won't be easy off 96 in this competitive field but has been gelded and switched to Andrew Balding who has his string in fine form. Andrew Balding had a good record at this course last year and Jimmy Fortune is in the plate. He too has a good strike rate over the past couple of weeks and has been profitable to follow at Newmarket.

[fintron]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

Figures for 1st January to 30th April 2010 Points: Staked 350 Returned 436.05 Profit 86.05 ROI 24.59%

Can't argue with a 25 % yield Steve, great going :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheers Fin - hopefully can keep things going :hope 2:50 Goodwood: Piscean 2pts win 7/1 Bet365 Piscean has a three from four record here. He also goes well fresh, wining first time out here last year off 86 in a Class 2 race. Today, after a season that tailed off he lines up on a mark of 84. Hopefully this is the time to catch him. A concern is that all three wins have been on good to firm. Scrolling down his form he also seems to perform best in smaller fields. Most things look in Piscean's favour today apart from a slight worry about the ground, however, hopefully this course specialist can over come that, and although there are other course and distance winners in the field 7/1 looks a fair price about Piscean.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Newmarket: Star Rover 1pt e/w 66/1 William Hill Three year olds have a pretty good record in this race and while Style Rover is a long shot he does not deserve to be the complete outsider. He is a Listed race winner and ran some decent races in defeat in some of the two year old Group races last season. Not surprisingly he did not feature on the soft over six last time out, however should be primed to go well on a good to firm surface over five. Worth a shot....

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

3:05 Newmarket 2000 Guineas: Makfi 1pt e/w 33/1 Stan James Makfi may just spring a surprise at a nice price. He seems to have slipped under the radar as he does not fare well against many of the trends, however this son of Dubawi may have been underestimated. He lines up here unbeaten having won a Group 3 last time out. His sire is Dubawi and he can trace his line back to Dubai Millenium. There is every reason to hope he will stay. Dubawi won the Irish 2000 Guineas and also won on this course. The concern is he has been winning (comfortably) on soft going. However, reading the reports his trainer feels he can improve and with some better ground he just might. Over the past decade a high draw has also been an advantage and Makfi will come out of stall 15. Don't pretend to know much about the trainer - which is probably part of the reason why Makfi is 33/1. If he was still with Marcus Tregoning he would be several points shorter.

:nana:nana:nana:nana

[jtw1]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Bloody great shout Steve :loon

[markmywords]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Get in Steve:nana

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Cheers JTW & Mark 3:20 Newmarket: Blue Maiden 1pt e/w 20/1 Betfred Blue Maiden ran well last time out here at HQ. She did not get a clear passage and was last two furlongs out, before running on well to finish half a length second to Music Show (although she did receive 3lb from the winner). Blue Maiden lines up at four times the price of Music Show. No expert on pedigree but it appears as though Blue Maiden would handle any easing of the going if the rain comes, and also looks as though she wants a step up to a mile. Jamie Spencer is a big name booking and with Blue Maiden coming in the top three or four of both the Racing Post Ratings & Topspeed, every chance she can run a decent race at the odds.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:40 Newmarket: Moonlife 2pts win 6/1 Stan James & Plaisterer 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 Mahmood Al Zarooni has made a decent start to the season and Moonlife could give him a winner at Headquarters. Moonlife looks to be a progressive filly signing off last season with a comfortable success on the all weather at Lingfield. With the rain getting in to the ground she should handle it. Looking through the form another that certainly handles the soft is Plaisterer. She will also stay the trip. The question is, even with those factors in her favour is she good enough? With her trainer having two winners (and several places) from his last ten runners its worth a point to find out.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:50 Beverley: Just Lille 2pts win 6/1 Stan James & Danehillsundance 1pt win 5/1 Ladbrokes Just Lille looks very well handicapped off 84 here. She has won off 90 in the past and after a couple of runs this season the cheek pieces are reapplied. This is probably around her minimum trip these days, however with Barry McHugh taking another three pounds off, she should go close in a trappy race. Danehillsundance is another that has won off a much higher mark and lines up after no luck in running three days ago at Musselburgh. Has won here in the past.

[Gingertipster]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Your outstanding win with Makfi encouraged me to look at your whole thread Steve. Mightily impressed. Of course I particularly like how you look for value, in shorter priced horses as well as outsiders. After a poor start you kept with it, would've been easy to give up or started again. Changed a few things, learnt from mistakes. The staking plan is the best I've seen and makes perfect sense. A good profit this year, and (even with that poor start) now well in profit for the whole thread. Brilliant stuff Steve, well done. :clap:notworthy

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread That's very good of you Ginge...thanks :ok 2:45 Chester: Spring Jim 1pt e/w 33/1 Bet365 Looking at past results it was a little surprising to see that three of the last five winners were drawn high. Maybe there is some value to be had with the higher drawn runners and Spring Jim may be worth chancing. He ran pretty well over hurdles during the winter. May be unwise to read too much in to a respectable sixth behind Menorah at Cheltenham, however that was a solid effort. Although nine he has only run twenty one times on the flat. The form of his second behind Akmal at York was a very decent run as that winner went to follow up of higher company. Interestingly, Spring Jim has won first time out on the flat for the past two seasons. James Fanshawe in pretty good form and Hayley Turner a positive in the saddle.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 Ascot: Splendorinthegrass 1pt e/w 25/1 Stan James (12345) Splendorinthegrass is a lightly raced sort who won well on his first outing for his new trainer David Lanigan at Kempton in April. There is every chance that Spendorinthegrass can improve on that, as he has only faced the starter seven times in his career. His third at Newmarket in August off 94 as a three year old against older horses was a decent effort. David Lanigan is in good form with two winners from his last nine runners. High draw has been a positive in previous runnings.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:50 Ascot: Good Again 2pts win 12/1 William Hill & Alsace Lorraine 1pt win 5/1 Betfred Good Again ran down the field in Meydan in January, however she did win this race last year off 85 and hit the target again off 91 at Pontefract. There may be excuses for her run abroad and with good claimer John Fahy taking a handy five off, she looks capable of a repeat. Alsace Lorraine has also run well here in September last year, just getting touched off after meeting trouble in running. She is three pounds higher today, however another bold bid looks on the cards, with Jamie Spencer again in the plate.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:35 Haydock: William's Wishes 1pt e/w 22/1 & Conquisto 2pts win 10/1 Both Bet365 Williams Wishes has been very consistent making the frame in all eight outings. His last two starts have seen him progress well and there could be more to come. The time before last he beat Mostly Bob fairly comfortably and that rival has gone in twice since. And last time out too when heavily eased he beat solid yard stick Raquel White. Trainer Evan Williams has had six winners from his last thirty six runners with plenty placed as well. Conquisto has a similar profile, with two wide margin wins on his last runs. Keith Mercer has a good record (particularly hurdlers) when riding for the yard. Its hard to assess the form and this step up in grade may catch both of these selections out, however they deserve a chance and could improve again.

[Kithanga]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Hi Steve, Noticed you'd picked the same two at Ascot as my thread and then started reading the whole of yours from last year to present day. I've got to say that you've done really well to stick with it through the bad start and it's really paying dividends with some excellent results this year. :clap Keep up the good work! K

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thank you Kithanga - much appreciated.... 3:05 Newbury: Lord Shanakill 1pt e/w 15/1 William Hill With Henry Cecil red hot at the moment his new charge Lord Shanakill would not need to improve much on his previous form to take a hand here. Lord Shanakill was third at Royal Ascot behind Mastercraftman and Delegator, that pair locked horns with Sea The Stars during the season and were far from discraced, so that one and three quarters length third place in the St James's Palace looks rock solid. Lord Shanakill then won a Group 1 in France next time out. The going, course, and distance should not be a problem. As well as being on an excellent run Henry Cecil also has a profitable record at Newbury. Paco Boy will be hard to beat, however, 15/1 looks a decent each way price about Lord Shanakill.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Newbury: Baby Strange 1pt e/w 12/1 Coral & Striking Spirit 1pt win 5/1 Skybet Baby Strange has never won on the all weather so its not surprising he did not get his head in front during the winter. As a result he has dropped to a handy mark even though he is out of the handicap here. However, two years ago he won off 88 over course and distance and last year picked up a race off 90 again in May. Seems to go well at this time of year, and handles the good to firm going. His trainer Derek Shaw had a winner earlier in the week. Striking Spirit is at the front of the market. He is well handicapped and went close last time out. Stepping up a furlong here should help too.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:50 Thirsk: Arizona John 1pt e/w 12/1 & Bucephalus 1pt e/w 33/1 Both Bet365 Arizona John has a good record over a mile on good to firm ground. He won three times last year around his current mark and with trainer John Mackie in cracking form looks worth an interest here. Bucephalus requires a fair leap of faith, he is lightly raced on the flat and encounters a firmish surface at around his best trip since his days in Ireland. Did not cut any ice over hurdles, however a reproduction of his old form may cause a surprise. Ran ok for new connections first time at Haydock and dropping back to a mile with Chris Catlin taking over today.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 7:30 Leicester: Silent Oasis 1pt e/w 33/1 Skybet & Snowed Under 1pt win 8/1 Stan James Silent Oasis is a maiden in a handicap, however with only a few miles on the clock she may be worth chancing here. She ran three decent races, starting off behind Strawberrydaiquiri at Windsor, before rather disappointing when sent off favourite at Haydock in July. Presumably something went wrong there as she did not reappear until October when she recorded another modest effort. She has since left Brian Meehan and joined Stan Moore. If Silent Oasis is back to last year's early season form 72 may not be too taxing. At the other end of the spectrum Snowed Under is nine. However he has a fine record at the course and goes well for Darryll Holland. Snowed Under won first time out last year. Trainer James Bethell is going well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread The Derby: Jan Vermeer 1pt e/w 20/1 Stan James If Jan Vermeer runs a decent race at The Curragh on Sunday then he will surely shorten up dramatically for the big race at Epsom, possibly in to third favourite. Jan Vermeer has beaten Midas Touch quite comfortably twice and has the third highest Racing Post Rating and the best Topspeed Rating of the 19 left in the race. Jan Vermeer has had some problems however he looks certain to stay the distance at Epsom and go on pretty much any surface. Its too risky to wait until Sunday evening, it looks worth chancing a point each way at 20/1 now.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:45 The Curragh: Keredari 2pts win 8/1 & Xtension 1pt win 13/2 Both Bet365 Keredari is lightly raced and John Oxx has said this is the horse that may give him the best chance of being competetive in the big three year old races this year. A nice winner of a Listed race on heavy in April here, Keredari is likely to improve again, which would put him right in the mix. Its eyecatching that John Oxx has a 42% strike rate over the past two weeks, and if they are not winning they are making the frame. Xtension ran a fine race first time out at Newmarket and may come on again. Xtension's form ties in favourably with Steinbeck (who is half the selection's price) on their running in the Dewhurst at Newmarket. Steinbeck looks very dangerous however he may just benefit for a run. Xtension should be suited by the likely strong pace today.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 York: Indian Trail 1pt e/w 16/1 & Ziggy Lee 1pt win 6/1 Both Stan James Indian Trail is getting a little long in the tooth but his last couple of efforts at Thirsk and Epsom show he has retained his ability. He handles the good to firm and with Billy Cray taking a further five pounds off today he could go close at a decent price. Does need the breaks and the race run to suit. Ziggy Lee is the opposite end of the spectrum. He is lightly raced and although up in weight and class from his last win there could be more improvement to come.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:10 York: Highland Glen 1pt e/w 11/1 Stan James Maybe missing something here but 11/1 about Highland Glen who could improve for this step up in distance looks a big price. Jockey bookings indicate that Age of Reason has the better chance, however there is not much between the pair on official ratings and Highland Glen who has won his last three races also handles the going.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:20 Perth: Flemross 1pt e/w 14/1 Ladbrokes Can't pretend to know too much about the trainer, but looking at his stats, if Mr Wilson brings one over from Ireland he has a very healthy strike rate. Last year he had four winners from eight runners for a level stake profit of £21.75. Given that, his lightly raced Flemross looks worth an interest here. Add in a pipe opener over hurdles on the 3rd May and maybe this decent summer jumping prize has been identified as a target. Sam Twiston-Davies takes off a handy five pounds and if Flemross can improve a touch more, he could be in the shake up.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:20 Newmarket: Take Ten 2pts win 12/1 & Pastoral Player 1pt win 7/1 Both Bet365 A wide open handicap full of potential improvers, however a couple look to have a decent chance. Take Ten has run well here twice in sales races. He was a half length third to Oasis Dancer who won at Newmarket this year before running down the field in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Take Ten was also a head second to Society Rock who won a Listed race this April. Take Ten's form has a solid look and he can step up on his first run at Sandown over five furlongs. Pastoral Player is another with good course form. Last time out here, he was just touched off in second when drawn on the far side when the stands side seemed the place to be. Given the circumstances that was a very creditable effort and he looks sure to go well again. Pastoral Player's sire Pastoral Pursuits won the July Cup on the neighbouring course, hopefully there is something in the genes about Newmarket.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread The Oaks: Akdarena 2pts win 10/1 William Hill & Meeznah 1pt e/w 40/1 Paddy Power Akdarena looks certain to stay the Oaks trip and boasts some strong form to back up her stamina. Last time out she won by seven lengths at Naas in a Group 3. Most of her previous runs look to have been on a softer surface and she appeared to take a big step forward for good ground. There are a couple of concerns, she is more exposed than many of her rivals and the blinkers are a little off putting for a classic contender. However, she pulled away from older fillies and mares well last time out, and if Kevin Manning sends her to the front under a determined drive, Akdarena may take some pulling back. Meeznah has already won over the distance at Newmarket. The question is, whether she is good enough. No stand out has emerged from the principle trials so there is a chance she could run in to a place at a massive price. Reading her pedigree on the Racing Post site she is by Dynaformer whose progeny apparently improve from two to three, and looking at past winners, American bred horses have a fine record in The Oaks. Ted Durcan already booked and she is entered in the Irish version too, so presumably well thought of. May surprise.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:25 Leicester: Beauchamp Xiara 2pts win 11/4 Ladbrokes Beauchamp Xiaria looks to have several things in her favour today. She is lightly raced and perhaps has more scope for improvement than many of her rivals. The drop back in trip after a decent pipe opener at Newbury could help too. And her trainer Henry Candy is in form with three winners from eleven over the past two weeks, with those beaten running up to form.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread For May, 51 points staked with a profit of 27.31 and a ROI of 53.55%. Despite starting well, never really got stuck in due to other pressures and the month has passed me by. Hopefully can devote more time in June, that said, off to Norfolk for a few days now!! Figures for 1st January to 31st May 2010 Points: Staked 401 Returned 514.36 Profit 113.36 ROI 28.27% Bets: Struck 214 Profitable 45 Strike rate 21.03% (Will include points staked on Oaks & Derby in next month's figures.)