Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player

[billy the punter]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player As with most great poker discussions, it should be less about this hand and more about how you will play a similar hand in future. Even if he has AA this time, the next time this happens the player may not - he may be a top cooler player and applying pressure (as I mentioned before). Which is why massive overbets should be a part of every cooler players game.

[Tweetypie05]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player

If we agree that he's a decent player who know's how to play Cooler's then you can put him on a much wider range of starting hands than the one's you suggest. Why? Firstly he will have seen raises from the BB against a limper enough to know that the BB could raise with a wide range of hands - therefore his middle pp (for example) could be well ahead. Secondly he know's that you're calling for your tournament life which you can only do in this situation with a premium pp. In terms of his cards the only hand I'm worried about is AA, anything else I'm beating when the chips go in, so the question is can I put him on AA? Based on one hand earlier the answer is maybe, but that was QQ and I can see many arguements for limping with QQ to at least see a flop. Would a decent player limp with AA in early position, 8 handed in a cooler? Let's consider the views of the many decent players here on PL. A number of them have said in this very thread that Damo should have shoved his KK and be happy to pick up the blinds. I don't believe any of us Cooler players would slow play AA in his position. Has he slow played his AA? If he has then IMHO he's not a decent player and he's got very lucky that he's ended up against only one player. If we credit him as being a decent player then I don't believe he's slow played his AA and I'm happy to take a risk with KK against any other starting hand. If you really want a hand range I could see someone make the same play with these types of hands 66+, A9+, KQ, KJs, QJs. I accept that the maths says it's a fold but poker is not an exact science and it's not simply a game of cards.:D

Very succintly put and what I wanted to say but didn't know how. :ok As GaF said, the point of the discussion is to improve our game by post-game analysis, which is something I never do! Even with all this analysis though I would still say that in 95% of times the above incident occurred I still think I would call. The really difficult part of the game for me is putting the other player on a hand or range of hands and then working out the likelihood of winning the pot... which is why I would most likely make the call. Any advice on how to calculate the odds against a range without a poker calculator? How would I do this in real time on-line or is there now way to do this?

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player

However from what has been said I think we can probably agree that he is a decent player. If we agree that he's a decent player who know's how to play Cooler's then you can put him on a much wider range of starting hands than the one's you suggest. Why? Firstly he will have seen raises from the BB against a limper enough to know that the BB could raise with a wide range of hands - therefore his middle pp (for example) could be well ahead. Secondly he know's that you're calling for your tournament life which you can only do in this situation with a premium pp.

Thinking about it - in coolers you probably never want action with the blinds at this level - a check raise (as opposed to an open shove) is a move designed to get some action - so he's trying to get action in a situation where he shouldnt (with anything). SO that makes me question his ability - the good player would, IMO, be less tricky here and more ABC.... Just checked him on sharkscope..... he is definitely not a good player :loon Damo's read on him is incorrect.

In terms of his cards the only hand I'm worried about is AA' date=' anything else I'm beating when the chips go in, so the question is can I put him on AA? Based on one hand earlier the answer is maybe, but that was QQ and I can see many arguements for limping with QQ to at least see a flop.[/quote'] I believe that's an error in your thinking - a big error in thinking for coolers. It's certainly not enough in coolers to get the money in when your ahead and fold when you're behind - in that case why would you ever fold AA pre flop? You need to call to increase your equity (which may be when you're behind in the hand) or fold to increase your equity (which may be when you're ahead in the hand) - coolers are so much more situational than standard STTs and your cards are far less significant than usual..... Actually, you're wrong ;) That range gives you more tournament equity if you call than if you fold, and so a call would be the correct option based on your feel for his range. If he were a good enough player to consider the responses of his opponents, then there is no way I could see him shoving that wide as he would know that players at this level call when they should fold and he would take that into account. As he's clearly a bad player though, I can see him shoving (check raising) with that wide a range.

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player

Even with all this analysis though I would still say that in 95% of times the above incident occurred I still think I would call.

You havent been persuaded at all that there are merits to just shoving in this situation rather than mini raising, thus avoiding the difficult question at all?

Any advice on how to calculate the odds against a range without a poker calculator? How would I do this in real time on-line or is there now way to do this?

Just keep looking at hands in Pokerstove after the event - then you'll get more and more of a feel for what odds are (roughly) without needing to look them up....

[daftpegasus]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player

Just checked him on sharkscope..... he is definitely not a good player :loon Damo's read on him is incorrect.

Thus it's all Damo's fault for getting a poor read on the player:lol I can't wait to find out what cards he actually had - I bet we're miles away, it will be 86o

[daftpegasus]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player If we agree he's a poor player then the check raise is a sign of recklessness, you've got the hand, it's an easy call - dunno what all the fuss was about:rollin

[robilaruk]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player

Thus it's all Damo's fault for getting a poor read on the player:lol I can't wait to find out what cards he actually had - I bet we're miles away, it will be 86o

I stick to my read, based on what I saw at the table :lol:lol:lol Anyhoo, you all know what happened next :puke Damo

[Tweetypie05]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player

You havent been persuaded at all that there are merits to just shoving in this situation rather than mini raising, thus avoiding the difficult question at all? Just keep looking at hands in Pokerstove after the event - then you'll get more and more of a feel for what odds are (roughly) without needing to look them up....

Totally agree with the the preflop shove... but if I had min raised I woulda called the allin... just a gambler I suppose? :lol

[pokerlife]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player I think the fact that he open limped in such a late position is indicative of weakness.Unless he has a good reason to suspect a raise. In cash games when against short opponents who employ this maneuver it generally means a middle or low pair, the thought process for them is something like "he probably raised with 2 high cards so i can get it all in in front", which is clearly flawed but common nonetheless. A player with aces wouldnt expect a raise unless there was a perenial raiser behind him because he limits the number of raising hands available by holding 2 aces. Gotafancy" if his range is 88-QQ AQ-AK, is it equitable to call? and more importantly what formula are you using to ascertain your equity in a tournament? clearly the result describes your chance of finishing inside the bubble based on the ratios between your stack, opp stacks and the blinds and the pot odds of a decision will play a roll but i was wondering what other variables there may be and how you do the calculation?

[robilaruk]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player

and more importantly what formula are you using to ascertain your equity in a tournament? clearly the result describes your chance of finishing inside the bubble based on the ratios between your stack, opp stacks and the blinds and the pot odds of a decision will play a roll but i was wondering what other variables there may be and how you do the calculation?

How to do ICM Calculations Damo

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player

Gotafancy" if his range is 88-QQ AQ-AK, is it equitable to call?

I've shown some workings here :ok The odds have come from Pokerstove. The equities have come from my previous calculations (ultimately http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx)

Odds	Result	Equity	EV
76.11%	Win	96.38%	73.35%
23.41%	Lose	0%	0.00%
0.48%	Split	78.80%	0.38%
100.00%	Total		73.73%

Against the range you suggest, it's a call. You can fold for 68% equity. If you call your ev is 73.73%.

[ELCAKER]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player great thread and excellent discussion. GAF I understand your sentiments and reasonings but I dont agree with your decision to fold. If you imagine that individual poker games are just that in our poker playing careers then you cant fold KK here. Bad beats are part of the game, walking into AA is part of the game, getting outdrawn is part of the game. But if you want to be a winning player then all you have to do is get your money in good most of the time. The odds will then determine over a long period of time that you are returning a profit. I would argue that KK is likely to be good most of the time! Obviously the game isn't just about pushing with monsters and hoping that our luck holds and there are undoubtedly times that one has to be able to fold big hands. But I cant agree that KK pre-flop here is one of them. Certainly not at this stage of the game, it isn't even the bubble. In this individual scenario the only hand you are behind to is AA and i'm not sure he'd play AA like this pre flop anyway. Much more likely that he has a mid range pair and is just a bad player.....

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player Sorry Elcaker - I cannot agree. Bad beats dont bother me at all, neither does walking into AA - they really dont - because I look at the macro picture and not the micro picture - what happens in one hand is of zero consequence in your poker career (assuming you are playing within your bankroll and will play long enough at that level for the "law of large numbers" to come into effect). I disagree that your goal is to get it in with the best hand (though it will often be the case that that marries up with your real goal) - your real goal is to get it in with positive ev - positive ev is the holy grail of poker! If your goal is simply to get the money in with the best hand, then it can never be right to fold AA pre flop, and we know that isn't true (especially in this format). With regards to this specific hand, what is apparent is that opponents range is everything. When we thought he was a good player, with a probable tight range (but one we were ahead of most of), it was negative ev to call. I'm pretty certain it would be a significant error (and cost you money over the long run) if you call. When we realised he was a fish, and probably had a wider range than we were suggesting, then it becomes positive ev to call. In this case it would be an error to fold. Our "feel" for his range is critical, but once we've made our judgement on that, then the decision is almost solely a mathematical one - in this case - if he has a tight range, the profitable decision is to fold. If he has a looser range, then the profitable decision is to call. So my fear isn't of getting outdrawn, or walking into AA - I'm simply making a choice based on ev - do I want a seat that is worth on average $7 or do I want a seat that is worth on average $6? Sometimes my $7 seat will be worth $0, and sometimes my $6 will be worth $9 - but a seat with an average value of $7 is better than a seat with an average value of $6 and that holds true whether I have to fold KK here, or call with 32o here and the result of this one individual hand doesn't impact what the right decision was....

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player

Certainly not at this stage of the game' date=' it isn't even the bubble.[/quote'] In tournaments, 100 chips does not equal 100 chips :tongue2 100 chips added to your stack are worth less than 100 chips taken off of your stack. Therefore, in general, an even money bet, to double your stack would be a negative tournament ev proposition (even though it's a neutral proposition in tournament chips) In coolers, the impact that one chip won is worth less than one chip lost is far far far greater than in normal STTs - because there is no value to chip accumulation once the bubble has burst (the game is over - but in normal STTs you carry on playing for bigger prizes) - therefore, in a cooler, if you have 2000 chips and the chance to double to 4000 chips (or crash to 0 chips) then you would need very very good odds - whether it's the bubble or not in order to make a call - "the gap" (it takes a bigger hand to call with than to shove with) because of this is also far wider than usual - it's because of the effect of this that seemingly strange decisions (such as folding KK pre flop) can be a right decision, when intuitively it just cannot be right (as I've said - at the time, in my 15 seconds, I would certainly have called)

[ELCAKER]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player ok, that makes total sense and you are certainly getting me to look at the strategy involved with playing coolers. But surely one double up is typically enough to achieve success, ie finish in the top half, and with KK you are in a superb position to achieve this.

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player If you double up once, at any stage in a cooler, then you are in great shape to win (and should do so 90% of the time!!) - if you start with 1500 chips - at the end, the average stack is 3000 chips - so a double up puts you in great shape - all you need to do is tread water ..... however...... a double up isnt the way to go - it's not necessary most of the time - if you finish with 1500 chips, your starting stack, you also win!! It's generally better to take pots down uncontested than go to showdown to double up (unless you have the nuts at showdown!!) - I've won coolers without playing a hand! If you can do that - why risk a showdown for your tournament life? Glad I'm making some degree of sense - ty :) (doesnt mean I dont want people to question what I'm saying and make me think about it more!) In this case, you have 2619 chips at the start of the hand - you've already all but doubled up - a double up from there puts you on over 5k!!! (remember an average stack at the end is 3k) - most risk involved in going from 2.5k to 5k will be too much, because you dont need 5k chips!!

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player Ok - with a bad opponent, with a seemingly loose range, I dont think anyone is arguing for a fold. However with a tighter opponent it's a pretty interesting situation that's still intruiging me a bit ..... SO I think I'm going to post the hand on 2plus2 and see what they come back with - I'll anonymise the hand and I'll change the details on the big stack - putting him down as a regular whose game I know pretty well and who I can put on a pretty tight range and see what they come back with :)

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player Posted here $10 DoN - Big Stack Limp reraises me all in - What do I do with KK? :ok Best if none of us post in the thread for the moment - see what angle they take without any further guidance from us :ok

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player First reply, and I think it's a pretty good one, even though he doesn't answer the question about what to do next :lol :lol :lol

Wow, that's one huge rake. Anyways, your raise is there to induce action - and KK isn't strong enough for that to be the best option here. Particularly if the player is a (winning?) regular. Shove this every time, unless you have a read that says villain only limps aces here. But that'd be a bit ridic. Either way, I can't imagine limping any part of your range is good in villain's spot, so we can assume he's no Einstein. Still, ****...I never put myself in this mess to begin with. The raise was so bad.

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player Couple more replies - not so insightful (IMO) - 2nd one I think is wrong when he says to call....

my trademark move is the all in preflop

when you raised, wtf did you want him to do? Call this easy imo.

They've obviously gone straight to the point that it was wrong to raise like that pre flop - should have been all in (which I think everyone here would agree with?)

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player A few more posts - second and fourth from the guy who made the first post.....At last we have someone say fold :nana :cow :nana :cow :tongue2

Shove. His range has to be wider than AK+. It's a shame you didn't shove earlier, but that's spilled milk. You're ahead and if you win this you can sit the rest of it out. If you lose, there's another DoN opening in about 20 seconds.

Btw our equity is .6854 for folding and .9638 for doubling up. This means we need 71.11% equity to call his shove. That means he's got to be shoving ridiculously wide for this to be a call.

I call here. If you had about 4k chips to start the hand then I'd fold it, otherwise just get it in.

I'm pretty sure my latest post stands, so you can kindly stop suggesting he calls.

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player Some more replies:

if limper is decent, he "knows" you should be folding everything but AA here. So i'd put him on a usual ep limp range, and that he is now turning his hand into a bluff with enormous fold equity (a good play indeed since you're folding KK here lol). So, if this were my read on villain i would call, knowing he has a wider range here (10%, maybe more) and that i'm a 75% fav against said range. However, without this read, you've got to fold since limp/rr here without reads is AA, KK, AK. oh, and btw, what you do is shove, not raise to a ghey-ass 688.

honestly you are going to win this DON (i'm guesstimating no actual math going into this) 90% of the time, KK will win against any pair (his most likely range imo) 80% of the time and obv beat AA 20% of the time so i fold pretty easily

You should just shove preflop probably in a DoN

I don't think you win this DoN 90% of the time. We are about 78% to cash according to ICM. There's a lot that can happen between now and then. I say shove over this limp.

This is also the reason why I think that ICM shouldn't be relied on too heavily here. There are 8 players left and you are not 90% secure to cash at the start of the hand. You are much less than that. The problem is that folding puts you 4/8. I really dont see why villain is flatting pf if he is a reg, even with AA. Good regs dont get tricky like that 8 handed and in mp. This makes me want to think he limped some kind of mid pp or suited connector. OP put him on a range of JJ+ and AK, but I doubt he is limping any of those hands here. Your read on him could be off, if he is a bad reg and you are giving him too much credit. SoManyAdsInIE, I'm assuming you used SNGWiz to find those equities. The reason why I think you shouldn't rely too heavily on ICM here compared to a regular sng is because the dynamics of the game are different. DoN's arent top heavy and it's not the bubble here yet. It's also not 4 handed where you are forced to push/call every few hands. Folding here gives the 7 remaining players a lot of time to change the table dynamics, and a 2k stack doesnt leave you in great shape. KK here might be the best chance you get to secure a cash. All I'm saying is that relying so much on a number in this situation isn't optimal. If villain is a bad reg, he could be limping 88 and shoving. If he is a good reg, hes likely not limping.

I used an online ICM calculator. Your reasons for not trusting ICM are not factual. You will have to try a bit harder if you are going to accomplish the impossible, ie come up with significative counter arguments to trusting ICM here. That DoNs aren't top heavy isn't in the least relevant here. That it's not the bubble is not relevant at all. Clearly, one could identify a number of factors that could sway ICM's valueing of our stack either way - but I highly doubt that such a sway would be significant. These factors are most likely ones related to relative position, that is, the pecking order. I think it's very hard to guess what sort of hand this retarded villain has got, but I also think that saying he shoved 88 here is ludicrous.

[GaF]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player Some more replies - think I'm going to "come clean" on there now.....

There are enough players out there that think they are being awful clever limping AA/KK that this move means you have to give this real consideration. If he's doing it with 44 98s, then he's just tilted by your raise and the AA trap is more common than this type of tilt. I'd call just cuz, but this situation is pretty dangerous. Prob a slight fold. Anyway, regards to ICM being wrong, I think the stack most likely to blind off first has a disadvantage compared to ICM and this becomes much more pronounced once he is too short to have fold equity. The player who benefits the most from this would be the 2nd smallest stack. Of course he has the same disadvantage compared to the chip leader. I don't know the breakeven point, but you should probably value your stack a little less than ICM any time you aren't in the top 5 spots (as in 5 least likely to blind off, not 5 largest stacks).

Hurts to read about those stupid DoNs tbh. Its not even a bubble, why would someone consider folding KK here. Did he just have Aces and you create this thread because of that?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Q.. Hurts to read about those stupid DoNs tbh. Its not even a bubble, why would someone consider folding KK here. Did he just have Aces and you create this thread because of that?

Because if you knew he had exactly A2o, you should probably fold. Also there are players who always have AA. DONs aren't like normal poker. A 3k stack needs to avoid being all in vs another 3k stack at all costs. Why? Because he's nearly guaranteed a seat and being 70% favourite means 30% chance of busting right now on this hand let alone the future.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoManyAdsInIE Btw our equity is .6854 for folding and .9638 for doubling up. This means we need 71.11% equity to call his shove.

What are you talking about? Our equity is less then 0.2 in DoN always unless its 5 handed already then it equals 0.2. Its -ev to call even if he has exactly 20% so whats the point of the thread anyway? Why cant someone just ICM this properly. Fold and dont play DoNs , they are stupid.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Q.. Hurts to read about those stupid DoNs tbh. Its not even a bubble, why would someone consider folding KK here. Did he just have Aces and you create this thread because of that?

You might want to stop posting really stupid advice. Quote:

Originally Posted by Q.. What are you talking about? Our equity is less then 0.2 in DoN always unless its 5 handed already then it equals 0.2. Its -ev to call even if he has exactly 20% so whats the point of the thread anyway? Why cant someone just ICM this properly. Fold and dont play DoNs , they are stupid.

My notation is clearly that our equity is a percentage of a cash's worth, not of the entire prize pool. I always found that more intuitive, but if everyone else goes by fraction of total money, I can obviously change. But I just don't see how you can't understand what I meant. I ICM'd it properly already, God! Surely some good posters remain here?

Snap fold. Shove over limp instead. Folding pre is probably okay as well. Forget that it's KK- we play situations, not cards, and this is a bad situation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoManyAdsInIE You might want to stop posting really stupid advice. My notation is clearly that our equity is a percentage of a cash's worth, not of the entire prize pool. I always found that more intuitive, but if everyone else goes by fraction of total money, I can obviously change. But I just don't see how you can't understand what I meant. I ICM'd it properly already, God! Surely some good posters remain here?

How did you come up with 30% to be breakeven when its still -ev at 20% and huge -ev at 30%? And wtf are you talking about equity not being ICM equity but some "percentage of a cash's worth"??

I don't understand what you're saying. I ICMed it (nb: there's always a possibility of an error with me and calculations/thinking/etc, but the results did look reasonable) and given our equity when folding and our equity when calling and winning, it looks like we need around 71% pot equity to make the call.

Im saying that my results say that we need 81%+ for this to be a +EV call. Share your numbers we could compare and see whos wrong. I could easily be but i really dont think so ..

Quote:

And wtf are you talking about equity not being ICM equity but some "percentage of a cash's worth"??

He means he's describing equity as percentage of a win as in 0.7=70% of a win=1.4buyins. If you type 1 in as prize amount in an ICM, you get 0.7 for this amount of equity. It's just the easier way to think of the maths if you play a lot of DONs. As in if I call I bust 30%, but I have 80% equity if I fold, so I fold KK, etc.

Thank you random hater. Q, I have already given you my numbers. I don't know how to express myself clearer. Our ICM equity for folding here is 68.54% of a cash (or roughly 13.7% of the prize pool) and 96.38% (or something like 19.3% of the prize pool) for doubling up, hence we need around 71% pot equity to make the call when the action gets back to us. What isn't clear? And what are these "results" you say you use?

My mistake, ive missed 8th stack so it was giving 78% instead of 71% as if it were 7 handed.

[pokerlife]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player committed GAF. good job, seems to be just an interesting scenario to throw up. ill pose the question to some of my mates who are reg "cooler" and SNG players and see how they apply logic.:clap

[robilaruk]

Re: Cooler KK in the BB - re-shove from a tight player Thanks GaF some interesting comments there :ok Damo