RobH Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Hi guys. I've been paper trialing a few of you for a while :notworthy, and think I've reached the stage where the results are statistically significant. My question is, when can I consider putting real money on? Is there safety in following a number of you, or could most of you start losing next month? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Re: How long to paper trial? its just a risk you have to take rob. I can't speak on behalf of the other posters but I know with my own tips they go through purple patches where I will have a few winners in a row and then I'll go and lose half a dozen on the bounce!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Re: How long to paper trial? Same here..........I've had a golden 3 weeks, but before that I had a so-so 6 months............. I'd never recommend following anybody else's tips or selections.........make your own ! I guess the exception to that would be if you're in for small stakes yankees for a bit of fun and haven't got time to look at the form...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobH Posted October 16, 2008 Author Share Posted October 16, 2008 Re: How long to paper trial? But presumably you guys generally make profit in the long term, regardless of how large or small it is? I really want to get something going while I learn the ropes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Re: How long to paper trial? RobH :welcome to this section of the PL. As the others have said we all hit peaks. If you want to bet every da, you are going to have to follow one of the punters who tips up in the Best bet of the day, the table is in the stickies & you can see who is performing the best. However, in the daily threads, there are a load more selections & that punter may even tip up a few winners in there & not his nap, so you have to be careful when following certain people. The specialisation threads have been a success over the last year, Mowgli, Russ, JTW1, Fintron to name a few have all shown profits long term, however again there will be peaks & lows. I wish you luck whichever way you go, but i will say some of the guys on here are far better than your average newspaper hack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobH Posted October 16, 2008 Author Share Posted October 16, 2008 Re: How long to paper trial? Bowles, Trotter, Fin, thanks for all the help so far. What I'm really asking is if I trial enough people, over a statistically significant number of bets for each person, is there a reasonable chance a larger percentage of them will stay in profit over the long term, and outway those that don't, thereby giving an overall long term profit? I've followed just under 500 bets so far. If you want to bet every da, you are going to have to follow one of the punters who tips up in the Best bet of the day, Will I not be able to see whose/which sort of bets do well from my trial? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 16, 2008 Share Posted October 16, 2008 Re: How long to paper trial? Bowles' date=' Trotter, Fin, thanks for all the help so far. What I'm really asking is if I trial enough people, over a statistically significant number of bets for each person, is there a reasonable chance a larger percentage of them will stay in profit over the [b']long term, and outway those that don't, thereby giving an overall long term profit? I've followed just under 500 bets so far. Will I not be able to see whose/which sort of bets do well from my trial? would be interesting to see a filter of your results then Rob, can they be sorted into race type/distances/courses/price etc etc You may find you do well following say a price bracket eg back everything ew over 10/1, or back everything between 2/1 & 5/1? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobH Posted October 16, 2008 Author Share Posted October 16, 2008 Re: How long to paper trial? I've got course and price, and could obviously look up the other details if it was going to be worthwhile. I did select everything at or below 14/1 and the results seemed quite erratic, but the sample was smaller, of course. Leaving everything in, it seems to have done pretty well over the last 21 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobH Posted October 28, 2008 Author Share Posted October 28, 2008 How long to paper trial ATR selections? would be interesting to see a filter of your results then Rob, can they be sorted into race type/distances/courses/price etc etc You may find you do well following say a price bracket eg back everything ew over 10/1, or back everything between 2/1 & 5/1? Hi again. Selecting everything from 24 Sep to 26 Oct 2008 has produced a nice yield over 534 bets, but the bankroll balance at the end of each day is very erratic. Selecting everything between 2/1 & 5/1 doubled the yield but there are only 141 bets, which is presumably too low to tell? Backing everything e/w over 10/1 virtually breaks even over 169 bets, and the bankroll is again very erratic. Should I look for the most consistent people long term and follow them? Or find posters that excel in certain race types/courses? Or is it simply a case of following whoever is in form at the current time? Are the course threads meant to be followed, or are they more about sharing your views with each other? Should I follow the specialisation threads, system threads and Sports-Punter instead? Please rest assured I've been studying betting day in day out for just over a year. I'm not just looking for a free ride! Thanks again for all your help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Re: How long to paper trial? Individual threads tend to be worth following. :ok Daily meeting threads can be a bit erratic, we had every winner at Aintree on Saturday but how many horses would you have to back to achieve those 6 winners - 20 ish? I cant tell you which ones to follow, i am sure you will find a favourite ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted October 29, 2008 Share Posted October 29, 2008 Re: How long to paper trial? RobH, How long to paper trial? I'd say 2 or 3 years. Any shorter and it could be coincidence. May be you should look at how you want to bet. Some of the "who we are" posts in the stickies might show you more of how each person bets. Which might help. If you are not interested in value betting and backing 2, 3 or more in the same race then you might want to stay clear of my threads.:lol Ginge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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