FleetFanatic Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Weekend 13/14 September Ratings: Premiership 390 Portsmouth 2.00 104 Wigan 2.10 10 Fulham 2.25 Championship 690 QPR 1.72 568 Plymouth 2.25 415 Crystal Palace 2.10 257 Birmingham 1.53 139 Nott'm F 1.90 49 Ipswich 2.50 League 1 918 Oldham 1.90 611 Southend 1.80 433 Leicester 1.57 393 Hartlepool (fri) 1.72 357 Northampton 2.50 142 Leyton Orient 1.90 25 Huddersfield 1.90 League 2 1017 Wycombe 1.80 805 Bury 1.80 749 Bradford 1.57 652 Darlington 1.80 352 Accrington 2.10 344 Grimsby 1.90 307 Bournemouth 1.80 Conference 1181 Stevenage 1.53 1162 Burton Albion 1.66 932 Cambridge 1.83 302 Salisbury 1.90 278 Kettering 2.25 Updated with odds from bet365: correct at 14.45 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 9, 2008 Author Share Posted September 9, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Weekend 13/14 September Bets: Treble: 3 teams top-rated in their division & odds >1.50 1.50 Stevenage 1.53 Burton Albion 1.66 Wycombe 1.80 Cambridge 1.83 Oldham 1.90 Bury 1.80 Bradford 1.57 £10 staked in an attempt to return £449.21 :hope "A la evilchris HT/FT" 1 x 5p lucky 63: HT (home) FT (draw) 1 x 5p lucky 63 HT(away) FT (draw) I've decided that I will use the closest match from each division (taken from my current ratings). The 6th match will be whatever is the closest unincluded match after that. Matches to be used: Fulham vs Bolton Newcastle vs Hull Ipswich vs Reading Huddersfield vs Tranmere Rotherham vs Rochdale Lewes vs Rushden *THURSDAY NIGHT* For the purpose of this thread, odds presumed to be 15, although they might vary slightly in reality. No bonuses will be accredited in the event of 1 winner. My advice is to use betfred though (as also mentioned by kevsul), for the bonuses & the fact they take stake units from 1p upwards. I will be. Any single returns 75p Any double returns £11.25 Any treble returns £168.75 Any 4-fold returns £2531.25 Any 5-fold returns £37968.75 A Magnificent 6-fold returns £569531.25 (Maximum payouts may lower this return). £6.30 staked. :hope Bank brought forward: £1071.21 Stakes in play: £73.83 New Bank: £997.38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hambo81 Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 The problem is, I really don't want to reveal anything. That's why I relocated to the Glory Hunter's forum. Besides..... call me suspicious, but some might think it strange that somebody's one & only post is requesting my secrets? 1 and only post because i only just signed up to this website. If you dont want to reveal anything why do you post all your bets? anyway reason i was asking is because i am a risk assessor for a major bookmaker. my job is mainly to figure out how much will my employer likely have to pay out on an event outcome compared to how much money we will likely bring in on said event. odds are geared to either attract income (good odds), or restrict payouts (bad odds) - either way its win win for a bookmaker. i assume your ratings are based solely on results for a team and their opponent and that risk plays no part in your theory. the last 5, 10, 15 results mean nothing to a bookmaker. its solely down to how much money we expect to take on a given event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jk Posted September 10, 2008 Share Posted September 10, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Thats great.... Keep up the good work Fleet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 10, 2008 Author Share Posted September 10, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 1 and only post because i only just signed up to this website. If you dont want to reveal anything why do you post all your bets? anyway reason i was asking is because i am a risk assessor for a major bookmaker. my job is mainly to figure out how much will my employer likely have to pay out on an event outcome compared to how much money we will likely bring in on said event. odds are geared to either attract income (good odds), or restrict payouts (bad odds) - either way its win win for a bookmaker. i assume your ratings are based solely on results for a team and their opponent and that risk plays no part in your theory. the last 5, 10, 15 results mean nothing to a bookmaker. its solely down to how much money we expect to take on a given event.Posting my bets doesn't reveal the methods of my ratings. Funny thing is that of your two posts, 1 post is spent praising me, the next is making condescending assumptions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hambo81 Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Posting my bets doesn't reveal the methods of my ratings. Funny thing is that of your two posts, 1 post is spent praising me, the next is making condescending assumptions! there is absolutely nothing condescending about my comments, i simply stated risk will likely play no part as it hasnt featured anywhere in over 2 years worth of threads. an observation mate. why so paranoid at every comment? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 11, 2008 Author Share Posted September 11, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 why so paranoid at every comment?Why the demand for me to reveal my methods? When I clearly stated that I wasn't going to do so? From my very first post in this thread; Now I will answer any questions where possible' date=' but I will not discuss my ratings method[/quote'] Now that's my final say in this conversation. Let my results do the talking. (And no, I don't expect to win every week!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 I think youve got Betfred worried, last week they cut the odds and this week i couldnt place the lucky 63 with them. Risk assessed perhaps. Great thread :hope for this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Why the demand for me to reveal my methods? When I clearly stated that I wasn't going to do so? From my very first post in this thread; Now that's my final say in this conversation. Let my results do the talking. (And no, I don't expect to win every week!) But we hope you do :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 I think youve got Betfred worried' date=' last week they cut the odds and this week i couldnt place the lucky 63 with them. Risk assessed perhaps. Great thread :hope for this week.[/quote'] Skybet accept this but I have not checked yet as regards any bonus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 12, 2008 Author Share Posted September 12, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Weekend 13/14 September Bets: Treble: 3 teams top-rated in their division & odds >1.50 1.50 Stevenage 1.53 Burton Albion 1.66 Wycombe 1.80 Cambridge 1.83 Oldham 1.90 Bury 1.80 Bradford 1.57 £10 staked in an attempt to return £449.21 :hope "A la evilchris HT/FT" 1 x 5p lucky 63: HT (home) FT (draw) 1 x 5p lucky 63 HT(away) FT (draw) I've decided that I will use the closest match from each division (taken from my current ratings). The 6th match will be whatever is the closest unincluded match after that. Matches to be used: Fulham vs Bolton Newcastle vs Hull Ipswich vs Reading Huddersfield vs Tranmere Rotherham vs Rochdale Lewes vs Rushden *THURSDAY NIGHT* For the purpose of this thread, odds presumed to be 15, although they might vary slightly in reality. No bonuses will be accredited in the event of 1 winner. My advice is to use betfred though (as also mentioned by kevsul), for the bonuses & the fact they take stake units from 1p upwards. I will be. Any single returns 75p Any double returns £11.25 Any treble returns £168.75 Any 4-fold returns £2531.25 Any 5-fold returns £37968.75 A Magnificent 6-fold returns £569531.25 (Maximum payouts may lower this return). £6.30 staked. :hope Bank brought forward: £1071.21 Stakes in play: £73.83 New Bank: £997.38 Odds seem to have changed a fair bit since I posted. In theory Wycombe would no longer qualify at odds of 2.00 & would have been replaced by Stevenage. Stevenage 1.53 now 1.53 Burton Albion 1.66 now 1.72 Wycombe 1.80 now 2.00 Cambridge 1.83 now 2.00 Oldham 1.90 now 1.90 Bury 1.80 now 1.90 Bradford 1.57 now 1.72 £10 at these odds would return £653.61 (over £200 more!) :wall Bets already placed here, so not a lot I can do about it now, but I must learn when in the week to place my bets. :spank Edit: I think in future, I will take Thursday as the day to post. This allows any midweek games to pass & will mean some consistency in posting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 13, 2008 Author Share Posted September 13, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 10 minutes for Wycombe to get their arses into gear..... .....those words about Wycombe / Stevenage are coming back to haunt me I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 13, 2008 Author Share Posted September 13, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Weekend 13/14 September Bets: Treble: 3 teams top-rated in their division & odds >1.50 1.50 Stevenage 1.53 3-0 :clap Burton Albion 1.66 1-1 :wall Wycombe 1.80 0-0 :wall Cambridge 1.83 0-1 :@ Oldham 1.90 2-0 :clap Bury 1.80 3-1 :clap Bradford 1.57 4-1 :clap £10 staked in an attempt to return £449.21 :sad "A la evilchris HT/FT" Matches to be used: Fulham vs Bolton 2-1 :$ Newcastle vs Hull 1-2 :$ Ipswich vs Reading 2-0 :$ Huddersfield vs Tranmere 1-2 :$ Rotherham vs Rochdale (0-2) 2-2 :clap Lewes vs Rushden 0-4 :$ *THURSDAY NIGHT* £6.30 staked. 75p returned:sad Bank brought forward: £1071.21 Stakes in play: £73.83 New Bank: £997.38Pretty fair to say I f***ed up by betting too early then. :spank I sensed that having highlighted the change of odds for Wycombe, that Stevenage would win & Wycombe wouldn't. :$ Let's hope QPR lose tomorrow then it wouldn't have mattered. :lol From now on, I'll be waiting until Thursday to post, whether there are midweek matches or not. New Bank: £998.13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dasherdude Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 hey fleet unlucky with your treble. i would just like to say thanks for the tips. I was going to back wycombe but i decided to back stevenage instead so i just need QPR to win tomorrow for me to win :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 14, 2008 Author Share Posted September 14, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 hey fleet unlucky with your treble. i would just like to say thanks for the tips. I was going to back wycombe but i decided to back stevenage instead so i just need QPR to win tomorrow for me to win :hopeQPR win 4-1 & I'm kicking myself. Well done though for taking note of my comments. :ok What with the European ratings not working out yet, it's been a naff weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 16, 2008 Author Share Posted September 16, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 You know I've never really monitored just the trebles when I've posted over the last few seasons..... ..... having checked, the trebles, having only won 2 weeks out of 4, are £59.38 in profit. Splitting the original bank into £500 for trebles, £500 for other bets: Staked £10 lost £10 Bank £490 Staked £10 returned £45.72 Bank £525.72 Staked £22.86 returned £113.05* Bank £615.91 Staked £56.53* lost £56.53 Bank £559.38 *Typed as £115.05 & 57.53 in posts above - this is an error. Not bad, so we're already almost covered for the next 6 weeks. There will be a slight revamp when I post later in the week, as I will show the trebles performance on their own. I will no longer monitor the performance of the other bets, as we all know we only need them once a season to profit. I am also ditching the european threads, although early in the season, it's simply more work than I imagined. To offset this slightly, I am bringing back the non-league sections from a couple of seasons ago. These will be rated using the same methods as in this thread, so nothing will be changing in regards to my rating methods. All bets will be posted in this thread, trebles will be the only ones monitored for performance. As I used to say in the past, these are the bread and butter of the system! New Bank Pro Treble Bets Only: £559.38 (+59.38) New Bank Amateur Treble Bets Only: £500 (+00.00) Back later in the week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 17, 2008 Author Share Posted September 17, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Right, bet365's usual odds adjustments appear to have taken place, so it's time for 3 posts. 1st = ratings 2nd = treble bets 3rd = lucky 7's / ht-ft bets Weekend 20/21 September Ratings: Premiership 1202 Liverpool 1.20 660 Blackburn 2.00 400 West Ham 2.10 314 Chelsea 2.25 58 Tottenham 1.72 Championship 1113 Birmingham 1.40 1091 Bristol City 1.90 348 Watford 2.75 295 Crystal Palace 1.72 20 Swansea 2.10 League 1 533 Millwall 1.61 466 Brighton 2.00 152 Carlisle 2.75 89 Stockport 2.10 League 2 1466 Wycombe 2.00 1097 Bradford 1.57 960 Darlington 1.66 555 Rotherham 2.25 528 Morecambe 2.00 522 Brentford 1.83 521 Exeter 2.10 250 Port Vale 1.80 147 Rochdale 2.20 69 Aldershot 2.20 BS Prem 1436 Histon 1.61 1003 Ebbsfleet 1.61 482 Torquay 1.61 BS North 781 Harrogate 1.72 405 Hyde 1.90 309 Droylsden 1.90 BS South 672 Newport 1.90 277 Thurrock 2.10 67 Welling 2.10 Ryman Prem 980 Ashford Town 1.57 796 Tonbridge Angels 1.61 516 AFC Hornchurch 1.80 404 Tooting & Mitcham 2.25 172 Hendon 2.30 Southern Prem 1292 Gloucester 1.72 437 Hemel Hempstead 1.80 157 Merthyr Tydfil 2.25 Unibond Prem 604 Kendal Town 1.72 336 Leigh 1.57 131 Witton Albion 2.10 92 Bradford PA 1.90 84 Guiseley 2.10 Trebles bets to be posted next..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 17, 2008 Author Share Posted September 17, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Weekend 20/21 September Bets: Pro Treble: 3 teams top-rated in their division & odds >1.50 1.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 17, 2008 Author Share Posted September 17, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Weekend 20/21 September Longshots: As stated previously, I no longer intend to keep a bank on these. Lucky 7's Pro 1466 Wycombe 2.00 1436 Histon 1.61 1097 Bradford 1.57 1091 Bristol City 1.90 1003 Ebbsfleet 1.61 960 Darlington 1.66 660 Blackburn 2.00 Amateur 1292 Gloucester 1.72 980 Ashford Town 1.57 796 Tonbridge Angels 1.61 781 Harrogate 1.72 672 Newport 1.90 604 Kendal Town 1.72 516 AFC Hornchurch 1.80 I think I'll do these as 2 x £5 7-folds and also perm the whole lot in 10p 13-folds & a 10p 14-fold. "A la evilchris HT/FT" I've altered these to 1 from each division, making them lucky 31's. 1 x 10p lucky 31: HT (home) FT (draw) 1 x 10p lucky 31 HT(away) FT (draw) Pro Tottenham vs Wigan Swansea vs Burnley Yeovil vs Bristol Rovers Aldershot vs Gillingham Forest Green vs Stevenage Amateur Solihull vs Farsley Celtic Maidenhead vs Bishops Stortford Sutton Utd vs Canvey Island Mangotsfield vs Corby Guiseley vs Eastwood That will do I think..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted September 18, 2008 Share Posted September 18, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Hi Fleet can you confirm where your placing the 5p lucky 31 on the Amateur. Thanks and good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 19, 2008 Author Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 I'll admit since posting I've struggled to find anywhere online. To be honest, I presumed it would be as much available as the bigger clubs. I plan to check out the various shops locally to see if this bet can be placed. If not then it's scrapped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted September 19, 2008 Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 365 will accept it but as im sure your aware its a 10p min Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 19, 2008 Author Share Posted September 19, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Well for ease of placing bet, I will do them as 10p lucky 31's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted September 20, 2008 Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Likewise. Good Luck as always :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted September 20, 2008 Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Good Luck as usual Fleet, New Ideas, with some nice results will go well today :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 20, 2008 Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 BOOM! the treble come in, well done mate. :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted September 20, 2008 Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Weekend 20/21 September Bets: Pro Treble: 3 teams top-rated in their division & odds >1.50 1.50 Nice going again Fleet, and only 1 team lets you down for the 7 fold again:@:@:@:@ Covered them again in 5 folds and upwards at decent prices. Not checked your others yet But well done again mate :clap:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 20, 2008 Author Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Weekend 20/21 September Bets: Pro Treble: 3 teams top-rated in their division & odds >1.50 1.50 Quite gutted that if I hadn't f**ked up the weekend before then today would have been a record 4th treble on the trot. :spank Still we have enough profit now to cover the next 8 bets. :ok Going very well. :clap:clap:clap Pro Treble Bank: £598.63 (+98.63) Next weekend's stake will be £24.63 Amatuer Treble Bank: £490 (-10.00) Quite disappointed that 2 lost on this treble! But we'll continue knowing 1 win in 4 would keep us level. Roll on next weekend..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 20, 2008 Author Share Posted September 20, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Nice going again Fleet, and only 1 team lets you down for the 7 fold again:@:@:@:@ Covered them again in 5 folds and upwards at decent prices. Not checked your others yet But well done again mate :clap:clap:clap:clapThank you.:ok Bloody Bradford this time. Last time Brighton.... something about the letter B. :lol I think it's fair to say that (at the moment), my revised ratings method is superior to my previous efforts. :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlyNF Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: Fleet's UK Footy 2008-09 Fantastic results Fleet, I've been a long term follower of your threads and was on your treble at the weekend, top work mate, keep it up!!! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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