Norfolk Enchance Posted December 21, 2003 Share Posted December 21, 2003 Re: Saturday 20th (not 19th!) Nice winner Pomp, unlucky with the second Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted December 21, 2003 Author Share Posted December 21, 2003 Re: Saturday 20th (not 19th!) KALCA MOME 1.30 Hereford WON @2/1 GREAT AS GOLD 2.10 Newcastle 2nd :( Cheers Norfolk, was more confident with Great as Gold to be honest, but a nice little profit for today anyhow. Updated Bank: 16.48pts (Still at a point where i have made a profit from early prices) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted December 22, 2003 Author Share Posted December 22, 2003 Monday DON FERNANDO 2.00 Fontwell f/c at evens, looks good does that price to be honest, hugely top rated horse in this field, if past experience of Massey's numbers, this horse is going to be very difficult to beat in this one :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted December 23, 2003 Author Share Posted December 23, 2003 Re: Monday Fontwell Abandoned. Bank remains the same. No more racing until Boxing Day, but lots of meets planned, so i'm sure this system will be into overdrive. Anyway, until then, Merry Christmas to everyone :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted December 24, 2003 Author Share Posted December 24, 2003 BOXING DAY! Well here they are, the boxing day picks, and my god if a few winners arn't found, i'll be in trouble! 7 picks in all. JOLIKA 1.00 Ayr FLINDERS CHASE 2.00 Huntington EDREDON BLEU 2.20 Kempton MICHAELS DREAM 12.30 Market Rasen COUNTESS CAMILLA 1.10 Towcester AR MUIN NA MUICE 1.55 Uttoxeter JAKE BLACK 3.30 Wheterby. Lets hope for the best in a couple of days :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted December 27, 2003 Author Share Posted December 27, 2003 Re: BOXING DAY! JOLIKA 1.00 Ayr 4th :( FLINDERS CHASE 2.00 Huntington 2nd :( EDREDON BLEU 2.20 Kempton WON 25/1 :hat :hat MICHAELS DREAM 12.30 Market Rasen 2nd :( COUNTESS CAMILLA 1.10 Towcester 2nd :( AR MUIN NA MUICE 1.55 Uttoxeter 2nd :( JAKE BLACK 3.30 Wheterby. 4th :( Well, those seconds could of been better, but can't really argue when you have a 25/1 winner though i suppose;) Updated Bank 35.48 pts Profit = +15.48:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted December 27, 2003 Author Share Posted December 27, 2003 Re: BOXING DAY! There are a few selections today, but none forecast above evens, so as was said before, no odds on horses will be included, so therefore, no selections. Also means that nice tidy profit can stay safe for another day at least :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted December 27, 2003 Share Posted December 27, 2003 Re: BOXING DAY! 25/1 holy shhhhhhhh :smokin Hope you backed it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted December 27, 2003 Author Share Posted December 27, 2003 Re: BOXING DAY! Yep, I back all these selections on Betfair Norfolk, you can sometimes get absolutely massive prices there. I won't tell you what i got for Eredon Bleu as there is no point boasting about it, but nearly every horse i've backed so far on betfair, is above the SP. It's certainly proving a very profitbable system, and even just going on SP's the bank has nearly doubled after that nice winner. I'm glad i was right and that long shot winners would finally boost the profit up, just a shame so many seconds yeasterday to :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted December 29, 2003 Author Share Posted December 29, 2003 Monday There are no selections above evens for monday either :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted December 30, 2003 Author Share Posted December 30, 2003 Tuesday No selections again :eek :eek :eek :eek :eek :eek :eek Poor meetings though, there were potentially a few picks, but past figures make them not be included :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest paspuggie Posted January 1, 2004 Share Posted January 1, 2004 Re: Tuesday Hi Pompey, I think it's great you have a system using AM's ratings. I for one have followed him for many, many years (probably 5 now) and admire his programming accolades and the ability for the program to send out, to us mere punters, a free service. I just have a question for you though.... Your system is probably based on past results, absorbed from his past results tables, yes? (If "no" then please forgive me and ignore the rest of the letter)...why I ask is... I have managed to use a few programs of myself to import the information for all the 5 star bets since Jan 1999 into my database. Just based on level stakes the 5 star bets alone produced some hefty, impressive results, culminating (if I was to start then) in producing a very very sizeable profit. BUT, I have also had the fortune to follow and import his daily selections, as they HAPPEN, on the day, since August 2003. Now, the weird thing is, they don't match up to his previous claims of returns, year in year out. I just scoured this year Aug-Dec....ok, only 5 months worth of information (but a good indication), and the wrong time of year for both disciplines of flat and jumps. But over that period, the 5 star bets for the Flat, returned a sorrowful -49pts, the Jumps, did much better and returned +36pts. Now, having spoken to AM too, he freely admits that his selections are created the night before. This then means if the going changes then the Top Rated horse, may, just not be so. Or if it changes for the better a horse may become a 5 star bet whereas before it wasn't. All confusing if you ask me and moreso when I find out the past & actual selections can actually alter the profit margins. So I was wondering if you had on paper a system that worked but find out in reality it doesn't? Is this the case? Rgds Paul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted January 2, 2004 Author Share Posted January 2, 2004 Re: Tuesday Hi paspuggie, yes the system is based on past results, but i have been altering it as i go along, as i can see where mistakes have been made. I fully accept what your saying about the subject, but the fact is i deliberately tried to develop something that matches up with past numbers, for the simple reason, i have absolutely no knowledge of horse racing whatsoever. You seem like you have reasonable knowledge of the subject, to if you have any ideas or pointers, then i would be glad to hear them :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest paspuggie Posted January 2, 2004 Share Posted January 2, 2004 Re: Tuesday Sure Pompey, if you would like to know anything just ask. So if your system is based on previous results, can you say how much you made? AND can you say how much you have made over a "real-time" scenario? i.e. on the day, use a selction, bet on it, make money and continue to do so? I just concentrate on the 5 star bets only. And that consists of some 7.500 selections so far, better than the 25-30k+ races AM has at his disposal, for every eventuality...the complete data would take me a year to import and decipher...any more and it becomes too mind boggling . It took me months to gather the 5star selections and import into my database as it was, and it is getting easier, but now I have imported what I wanted, but if you have a system that works and is not reliant on past results, then brilliant, let me know. Basically, Handicaps are a yes, 600+ rating are a yes, less than 200 days is a yes, maybe even less, down to say maybe 100...there is so much to check out...check out all horses (5 star) above 20-1...it would surprise you to see, that you would make a considerable profit backing them all, moreso if you back on the exchanges...but because it is all circumstantial and the past doesn't represent the future or present, then it is becoming quite difficult....right now. I will get there and I will find a medium to show profit. rgds Paul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted January 2, 2004 Author Share Posted January 2, 2004 Re: Tuesday Well if you look at this thread ,you can see in terms of real time, since i started, how many points profit has been made, although alot of that is due to Eredeon Bleu, but is that not the point of Massey's ratings? you find the value in the 20/1 + shot. I certainly agree with what you say about the exchanges, they are absolutely fantastic for backing some horses, as you find value that is just not possible anywhere else. If you look back at this thread, i think there is about 15pts profit so far, since the time i started, but i my terms, you have to add some onto that, as they are just SP. and i take prices as soon as they are put up on betfair, which usually end up above the Starting Price. I think the finally thing to remember on Massey, is the fact the numbers are there, and do work, if you put the time and effort in, i think you can end up coming out with a profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest paspuggie Posted January 2, 2004 Share Posted January 2, 2004 Re: Tuesday I agree Pompey, there is finding value in the 20/1 shot. In the last 4 years he has had 240 bets all above 20/1. With only 15 winners...doesn't sound much but the profits would have been 110pts. If you had obtained the "actual" odds, (this is in the section of what Massey says is the true reflection of a 20/25-1 horse) then that figure jumps up to 280pts profit. NOT BAD, eh ! lol I don't have any system as such right now. I'm just getting my head around the vast amounts of data I have installed first...all I can say is right now, for some reason, anything less than 2/1 on Massey's 5star selections and you are either just breaking even over a long period or losing money. Personally it looks like from the SP's I have studied, above 4/1 and you are making some good profit and moreso if you can get higher exchange prices. Happy New Year...I'm feeling the remnants from this afternoons beer :( PAS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest paspuggie Posted January 2, 2004 Share Posted January 2, 2004 Re: Tuesday P.S. just to note, "laying" the bottom rated horse of a 5 star rated race, loses over 90% of the time...I do have a full list of the past year's results, staking to a £10 lay. Returns were over £6,000 profit. A lot of bets, and a big bank would be needed, plus most horses are rank outsiders, prices from 12/1 to 100/1..all kind of tiresome but again quite a good profit over the year, just to £10 stakes. If you would like the list of stats, then let me know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted January 3, 2004 Author Share Posted January 3, 2004 Re: Tuesday Yes mate, a list of stats would be fantastic. I've mentioned in another thread of the prospect in laying using his selections, as you can easily tell just by looking at the basic numbers which horses are just complete no hopers. btw, just to let people know, there would have been finally a selection for today, but Ayr was posponed :( Should be plenty to put up tommorow though, weather has played havoc in the last few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted January 3, 2004 Author Share Posted January 3, 2004 Update Regarding selection Criteria A number of people have e-mailed me regarding the selection criteria of this system. Well it's been slightly updated again as i now have alot of information stored in my own database. Horse must be Top clear Rated by 40 points. No Longer any runs on a Sunday. No National Hunt Flat Races. Still No 'Going' Hard Races. No Carlisle or Doncaster. No Horses Below EVENS. At least run twice in last 12 months. Rating at least 650+. Stats and Numbers wise, this is given the system the best possible chance of performing based on previous analysis of results. I'm off to see what selections are for today, and thanks to guys who have e-mailed me, and posted on here in interest to this experiment of mine to :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted January 3, 2004 Author Share Posted January 3, 2004 Saturday Well let's have a go for today shall we, BALLYLUSKY 3.20 Sandown Just the one, as Newcastle is abandoned :( f/c at around 5/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted January 4, 2004 Author Share Posted January 4, 2004 Re: Tuesday Only a 4th today which i'm quite suprised at. Started at 7/4, could of got 3.3 on betfair, and although it lost, just shows what good value on the horses you can pick up :) Updated Bank 34.48 pts Profit 14.48pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted January 5, 2004 Author Share Posted January 5, 2004 Monday No selections tommorow :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest paspuggie Posted January 5, 2004 Share Posted January 5, 2004 Laying As I mentioned before Pompey about laying. Well, I'm back at work and can access my data...here is all the 5* rated races, laying the bottom horse to lose, based on past performances in the past year, up to Nov-03. All figures are based on Flat as well as Jumps I tried to import the table but it was all iggledypiggledy...back to typing out by hand...this will take some time adn may look out of place still (apologies0. Based on £10 lay. The format will show for Flat; month, amount of bets, losers, outlay ; losses, profit : Then repeated for jumps : Then a Total profit and Accumulative Profit (I've rounded the figures off as best I can) Jan-03 8, 80, 0, 80; 71, 710, 200, 510; 590, 590 Feb-03 18, 180, 0, 180; 90, 900, 902, -2 ; 177, 767 Mar-03 23, 230, 395, -165 ; 172, 1720, 303, 1416 ; 1251, 2019 Apr-03 26, 260, 0, 260; 143, 1430, 573, 856 ; 1116, 3135 May-03 63, 630, 270, 360; 65, 650, 291, 359 ; 719, 3854.37 Jun-03 111, 1110, 370, 740 ; 30, 300, 75, 225; 965, 4819.37 Jul-03 132, 1320, 800, 520 ; 40, 400, 505, -105 ; 415, 5234.37 Aug-03 137, 1370, 1205, 165 ; 39, 390, 213, 177 ; 341, 5575 Sep-03 123, 1230, 970, 260 ; 35, 350, 805, -455 ; -195, 5380 Oct-03 104, 1040, 330, 710 ; 58, 580, 397, 183 ; 892, 6273 Nov-03 66, 660, 0, 660 ; 43, 430, 412, 18 ; 677, 6950 Now, as we know and have discussed, these are based on ratings that can change. But having seen most of AM's ratings at the rear end of the tables they don't change that much, if at all. I had also included those ratings with a "0", which I really shouldn't have but did. They can be omitted (not many) as you may get quite a few horses with no rating. If you check AM's guestbook, you can see that Tony has had AM explain why ratings change and why some races that were nos tars become stars or vice versa. The above table is interesting but there are a lot of bets and in one day there was two losers at 33/1 and 16/1..so a big bank would be of use. Most horses range around 10/1 - 100/1 SP. I'm not a Betfair laying type knowledgeable person, so don't know if that is good or bad. I still find it interesting though. Rgds Paul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted January 6, 2004 Author Share Posted January 6, 2004 Re: Laying Thanks for that mate, makes interesting reading, i'm not sure i have the nuts to lay some of those though, 33/1 would give me heart attack ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted January 6, 2004 Author Share Posted January 6, 2004 Tuesday MANAWANUI 1.15 Wetherby f/c 5/4 Actually avalible at 2.3 on betfair. Will start around evens i would of thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted January 6, 2004 Share Posted January 6, 2004 Re: Laying Paspuggie, I guess all your calculations of profit are based on SP's and this just isn't realistic for laying odds on Betfair (unfortunately). This is where your profit calculations are going to fall down badly. Take for example the 2 33/1 shots you mention - you will be *extremely* lucky to be able to lay these at odds of better than 50/1. Indeed for almost all poor horses in such a 5* race I reckon you'll need to add at least 50% on to the SP to get a realistic lay price. For the 100/1 shots you mentioned you'll be doing well to get prices of 500 to 600/1 for a lay especially if you want to win £10. Not sure I would risk losing £1200 on one horse race just to get a tenner ! EEK ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted January 6, 2004 Share Posted January 6, 2004 Re: Laying PompeyPunt - how does Manawanui qualify as a selection when it is only top rated by 36 points and not the 40 you specify in your criteria ? Or is it just an "approximately 40" criteria ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest paspuggie Posted January 6, 2004 Share Posted January 6, 2004 re:laying Thanks for your advice DBDF. I don't know much about Betfair so wasn't sure how the system would work or how BF would work with laying long odds selections. I totally agree, 500/1 to win £10..and it may come in..ewww no...that is scary !!! Rgds PAS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Lardonio Posted January 6, 2004 Share Posted January 6, 2004 Re: re:laying Just out of interest - are there horses who are so bad that they don't deserve a bet at 500/1 ?? That means a chance of winning at 0,2 % to break even, surely any donkey could defend that? Is so high odds often available at Betfair? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted January 6, 2004 Share Posted January 6, 2004 Re: re:laying So based on their *past* form there do often appear to be horses that are so bad that they do deserve a price of 500/1. Trouble is though that may not be a true reflection of their price in the race that's about to be run. I've been looking at the prices of horses in the Betfair markets for a while now and it's surprising how often one of these so called donkey's wins. Always makes me fell sorry for any poor bugger that layed one - they must almost be wiped out unless they've been trading and covered the lay in some way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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