PompeyPunt Posted November 10, 2003 Share Posted November 10, 2003 Apologies to bcrazy first of all, incase I am stepping on his toes, but i did notice he was only concerned with Flat racing. Well i was looking at Massey's National Hunt data, and thought there was potential these for a profit as well, provided the selections can be narrowed down. So i did abit of back testing, and looked at where his selections had gone wrong, and came up with a list of criteria for selection, so thought i would narrow it down. The criteria for National Hunt selection is: Updated No longer must be 5***** rating Must be rated 540 or above on the Massey system and clearly top rated No Bet if going is Hard No bet if more than 4 runs in last 30 days Possible no bet if has no run at least twice in last 12 months Possible no Bet a Carlisle, Chepstow, Doncaster,Haydock, Kempton, Lingfield, Market Rasen, Sedgefield, Wolverhampton (this is now done to my judgement really, basically these tracks peform poorely, but if there is a clear top horse, risk might be taken) No bet if it is coming into the race off a hurdle, amateur hurdle, claiming chase, or a selling chase These are factors that have all helped to contribute to a negative yeild, so hopefully with taking these out, i can try and improve on massey's national hunt yeild even more. I could of got this completely wrong though, as long as nobody minds i think i will give this ago. I will post up criteria that has an even more postive affect later on if i have time. This is also the same criteria now for all weather races, and any NH flat, if i've still got it going (as its going ok at the moment) into normal flat season, i think i'll keep the same criteria Update, 23/01/04 Selection criteria finalised This will from now on, be National Hunt & Flat racing, I will post up the criteria for all to see, as there is no real secret about what i am doing, i know absolutely nothing about racing, just using numbers that Adrian Massey kindly provides for all to see. National Hunt Selection Horse must be Top clear Rated by 40 points. No Longer any runs on a Sunday. No National Hunt Flat Races. Still No 'Going' Hard Races, or going 'Firm' No Carlisle or Doncaster. No Horses Below EVENS. At least run twice in last 12 months. Rating at least 650+. No bet if Horse fell in last race No bet in August, September or October At least 1 star rating. No Novice Handicap Chase Races Flat Racing Criteria No Amateur Races No races of 2miles + No races in November or Decmember At least 2 runs in last 12 months At least evens or above No bet if race is 4 Furlongs + Shorter than last race At least 1 star rating Rated at least 560+ 20 + Top Rated. I would doubt if this criteria will change much again, as i've spent quite alot of time getting things now as good as possible. I hope this will benefit me, and anyone else who is interested in what i am doing here, and maybe to make a few quid along the way. I've also decided, that 5% of any profit made (if there is any) i will donate to Adiran Massey's charities listed on his site, as a small token of thanks to him for providing such an excellent service. PompeyPunt. This info is just pasted from page 8, in which it's listed to, note that this has not been the complete selection criteria throughout, it has been added to whilst testing over the last few months, but this should now be basically it, for all to see. I won't delete anything that has been posted before, just so anyone if interested can see how this has progressed into what it is now. Yet another update (nothing IMO can now be improved, if it dont work, it don't work) 3rd FEB 2004 National Hunt Racing No Races In August, September, October No Races on a Sunday No Novice Handicap Chase, NH Flat, Amateur, Selling Chase Races No Going Hard or Firm Races No Races at Carlisle and Doncaster 70% or Runners ran in last 90 days Starting Price of EVENS or ABOVE No bet if Fell in last race At least 2 Runs in the last 12 Months At least a One(*) Star Rating By Massey At least Rated 650+ by Massey Rated 40+ Clear of second rated Horse. Flat Selection Criteria No races in November or December No Races on a Sunday No Races of 2 miles + Must be at least EVENS or ABOVE No Bet if 4 Furlongs + Shorter than last outing 70% of runners ran in last 90 days Selection must also have at least 1 run in last 90 days At least One(*) Star Rating by Massey At least Rating of 560 + At least 20 + Rated clear of second top rated horse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 10, 2003 Author Share Posted November 10, 2003 Re: National Hunt selections, loosely based on Massey Ok, two bets today meet the criteria, both at Fontwell: Governor Daniel @4/7 1.05 Radcliffe@13/8 2.15 Start Bank 20units Current Bank 18 units All 1 point stakes for now by the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 10, 2003 Author Share Posted November 10, 2003 Re: National Hunt selections, loosely based on Massey Governor Daniel WON :D Radcliffe LOST:rolleyes Not sure this thread is gonna last to long :lol Start Bank 20pts Current Bank 19.57pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 11, 2003 Author Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: National Hunt selections, loosely based on Massey I got that price of 4/7 when i went out this morning Norfolk, is there usually much difference in the starting price to a forcast price? I don't have much time during the day, and alot of races arn't priced up in the morning, so will i lose out much taking SP's? I will include SP's from now on anyway. bcrazy, if you go to massey's homepage, and look at the ratings for every horse for each day, its in the top left i think, for each race it lists what it is, and i think unless it says 'flat' its a national hunt race, someone please correct me if i am wrong :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted November 11, 2003 Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: National Hunt selections, loosely based on Massey No worries Pompey- seeing as you seem to be able to figure out which are NH races can you point me in the right direction as to which are flat please as Im still not sure :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 11, 2003 Author Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: National Hunt selections, loosely based on Massey Ok Sp's from now on, i'll just post up the selections from now, and the sp's after. I dunno if the bcrazy found this in his version and his back testing, but this is definately a profitbable system, but it does have its ups and downs, and relies on huge winners to save it from time to time from going under. I don't really know what i'm doing with horse racing so its basically blind betting, but i will stick with it, and see how it goes. Bcrazy, would love to hear any little things you found out back testing for the flat data, we can bring our inept knowledge together, and create the perfect system :hat :lol note for bcrazy, Just found out, most Flat races are between May and October, and there are few Flat races at the moment as it is national hunt season.(i think thats wot norfolk said to:\ ) There are still a few about though, so still some to bet on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted November 11, 2003 Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: National Hunt selections, loosely based on Massey Hope its successful pompeypunt :) Just one observation - you seem to have recorded Governor daniel as a winner @ 4/7. Is that the price you got or a forecast price? The starting price was 2/5 and I think settling at SP would give a more accurate reflection of the system Don't mean to confuse you any further Bcrazy, but I thought the flat season had ended now and all weather season started today? Now get yourself over to Britain and take the Captain's job ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted November 11, 2003 Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: National Hunt selections, loosely based on Massey Hi Pompey, well done on getting the 4/7 its hard to tell - sometimes the price will come in in the build up to the race, sometimes it will drift. All depends on where the money is going, there was obviously a lot of money going on Governor Daniel today. Usually the price drifts when I back at the early price and comes in when I back at SP :lol Seriously though for proofing I think SP should be used as that price is available to everybody. If it proves profitable at SP and you manage to get some better prices for yourself then you are laughing :smokin Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted November 11, 2003 Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: National Hunt selections, loosely based on Massey Thanks, I think I should be alright just including the races labelled flat then but what I cant figure out what NH flat races are classed as on there so I might still be doing it wrong. What classifies a race as a National Hunt race? P.S. You have a PM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 11, 2003 Author Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: National Hunt selections, loosely based on Massey Forgot to include this in the PM bcrazy, i think anything with Hurdle or Chase in it is National Hunt. You want any type of flat race, although there are different catergories of that, except in Massey's anyalysis, they are always described as just Flat (i think):lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted November 11, 2003 Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: National Hunt selections, loosely based on Massey Thanks, will get a thread up and running and do it all properly this time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Oddsfellow Posted November 11, 2003 Share Posted November 11, 2003 Masseys Ratings Bcrazy will be delighted to hear that the flat season finished on Saturday!!! Any flat races you see now are on all weather surfaces which are a law to themselves. AW surfaces are at Southwell, Lingfield, and Wolverhampton. Pompeypunt, be careful not to just backfit a system. Personally i would not exclude certain courses just because in previous years they have not shown a profit.I wouldn't imagine Masseys ratings pay to much notice to track and as such the fact these courses are in the negative is i believe a statistical coincidence. There are certain courses you could exclude say Cheltenham for its uniqueness, or Folkestone its a sheithole!! Anyway best of luck to you both in your ventures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 11, 2003 Author Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: Masseys Ratings Hey oddsfellow, any comments and suggestions are welcome. I have taken into account your points, and set up a spreadsheet for keeping records of these poor result courses, although some of them are truely shocking (two of the all weather tracks you have mentioned have poor yeilds). Anyway, if they show signs of improving, i will take them of my 'blacklist' Although you mention Cheletenham is unique(Does that mean its unpredictable? excuse my racing ignorance!), it actually has probably one of the highest yeilds for both National Hunt and Flat racing, which would go along with your theory of statistical coincidence. Any other racing experts out there who wish to add their 2 pennies worth, or have any suggestions of how i could narrow down my criteria, i would be glad to hear it :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 11, 2003 Author Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: Masseys Ratings Ok, here we go, Tuesday's selections, hope i do abit better than yesterday though: Always gonna be 1pts. Start Bank 20pts Current Bank 19.57pts Pharbeitfrome 1.50 @ Sedgefield (Sedgefield is excluded, but i have taken oddsfellows views into account, as yield is only just negatvie here, so can be included, as horse also has very high rating) Mighty Montefalco 2.40 @ Huntington Roppongi Dancer(Each way, forecast 20-1:eek ) 3.40 Huntington Updated Bank 16.57pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Oddsfellow Posted November 11, 2003 Share Posted November 11, 2003 Masseys Ratings Pompeypunt, Cheltenham is the home of national hunt racing, and is a very unique course. Stiff fences, undulating track and a very tough uphill run-in. Therefore you will often find that horses which do well at Cheltenham have at least had a run round it before if not won. Generally speaking i would never back anything that has a woman jockey, a 7lb apprentice (indicated by a 7 in brackets on card) jockey, selling hurdles, NH flat races or apprentice races. Your rules cover most of them anyway. Also the general consensus of opinion is that if a horse has run recently then it can be deemed to be fit and ready. Anything with a lengthy layoff is dubious. I see your rules also account for this which is good, but you will also find that Masseys ratings incorporate it too. Therefore any horse that has had a lengthy layoff and is still top rated by Massey must be pretty good. Finally the bad news. Massey in the summer was getting ticked off with everybody using his ratings. The icing on the cake was the 5/4 system (see horse racing section) which depends greatly on them was being sold on and he was seeing none of it. So he started not posting ratings up for certain meetings. He has stopped doing this but i would imagine he will do so again or start charging for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted November 11, 2003 Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: Masseys Ratings Thanks for the good news Oddsfellow :lol Ill try November from previous years and see how I get on then before starting it on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted November 11, 2003 Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: Masseys Ratings Just as I get it sorted Adrian replies to my email to explain it to me :D Andy Basically, National Hunt racing involves horses jumping over things and takes place mainly in the winter months, while flat racing has no obstacles and takes place mainly in the summer months. National Hunt races will have the words 'hurdle', 'chase' of 'national hunt' in the race title. All the best Adrian Seems like a nice guy- Id been doubting whether he would reply as it seems to be a very popular website but he has confirmed what I had finally been thinking thanks to a lot of help off you guys :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bcrazy Posted November 11, 2003 Share Posted November 11, 2003 Re: Masseys Ratings My system performed poorly during Nov 2002 so Ill be staying away for now but will do a bit more back testing some other time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 12, 2003 Author Share Posted November 12, 2003 Re: Masseys Ratings All todays selections lost, which is an awful start to say the least. I will soilder on though until bankruptcy :b I am still modifying the criteria to get good performence, so it won't always match what i have set out at the top exactly. Banks not looking good :\ Start Bank 20pts Current Bank 16.57pts Proft: -3.43 :lol going well Still think there is something to this, back testing has all gone well, but this is my first crack at some sort of system, so i may as well give it a go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 12, 2003 Author Share Posted November 12, 2003 Re: Masseys Ratings Ok, Onto Wednesday's selections, hope they are abit better, or i will be bankrupt very soon:lol Positive Profile, Kelso, 1.00 Florries Son, Kelso, 1.30 The Lyme Volunteer, Newbury, 2.25 Sea Plume, Lingfield, 12.05 Classic Millenium, Lingfield, 3.50 More 1pts stakes. Updated bank 11.57 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 13, 2003 Author Share Posted November 13, 2003 Re: Masseys Ratings Another quite appallin day, the system seems to be getting worse and worse results, and back testing for last November went so well :\ Never mind, at least one winner today, even if i was only a 5/6 favourite :b So the winner today, Positive profile @5/6 And here is the sorry looking bank: 13.40pts Thats -6.6 profit :eek Tommorows picks coming in abit hopefully Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 13, 2003 Author Share Posted November 13, 2003 Re: Masseys Ratings More picks for tommorow, bankruptcy isn't to far away thought;) 12.40 Farkenham - Phar from frosty 3.40 Farkenham - On the verge 1.00 Ludlow - Forzacurity 1.30 Ludlow - See more snow 2.00 Ludlow - She's out native 3.00 Ludlow - Sunny Native All 1pt stakes, so the bank at this moment in time looks like this Bank 7.40 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 13, 2003 Author Share Posted November 13, 2003 Re: Masseys Ratings 12.40 Farkenham, Phar from frosty was a non runner Bank 8.40pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 14, 2003 Author Share Posted November 14, 2003 Todays results Well today in terms of profit went very bad again, and there was one non runner. Of the five that ran ALL came in the first 2, but the only winners were the two odds on horses >: , Sunny Native @10/11 and on the verge @1/3. Although the fact that there was 5 top two horses does give a tiny bit of optimism. Soilder on i will though tommorow :) After today, updated bank 11.64pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 14, 2003 Author Share Posted November 14, 2003 Re: Todays results Fridays selections Wherecanyounow 3.30, Cheltenham Dark Shadows, 1.20 Newcastle Patriarch Express, 2.30 Newcastle Water Sports, 3.05 Newcastle Armentieres, 1.00 W'hampton (i dont think this should be included though, as i think its flat:\ to late now though, placed it!) All 1pt stakes Updated Bank 6.64 pts (Bankruptcy must be close:eek ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 15, 2003 Author Share Posted November 15, 2003 Re: Todays results Well today went ok i suppose, first day so far that hasn't been a loss:D Wherareyounow won @10/11 Patriarch Express won @ Evens Water Sports won @8/13 Dark Shadows came second, and armetires came third So updated Bank 12.17pts Profit -7.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 15, 2003 Author Share Posted November 15, 2003 Re: Todays results Well onto Saturday's picks, although the last 2 days haven't proved that fruitful, i have been left with a little encouragment that all horses have finished in the top 3 over the last two days(although quite a few were favourites, so could be expected i suppose) Anyway, here are the picks (have included forecast prices mainly so i can compare with SP's) Shannans Pride, 3.25, Ayr f/c 13/8 Brother Joe, 1.00, Cheltenham f/c 10/11 Web Perceptions, Cheltenham f/c 5/4 Grand Finale 12.20, Utoxter f/c 4/9 Bee an Bee, 2.35, Utoxter, f/c 4/5 Merdiff, 9.00, W'hampton, f/c 4/1 So bank in running very low. Bank 6.17pts 6pts in unsettled bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 16, 2003 Author Share Posted November 16, 2003 Saturday results Didn't do to bad yesterday, one non runner though, that was Shannons Pride. All top 3 finishes again of the others, Winners were: Grand Finale @8/13 Won Bee and Bee @4/6 Won Merdiff @15/8 Won Updated Bank, 13.33pts Profit -6.67pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 16, 2003 Author Share Posted November 16, 2003 Sunday picks There is three picks for today: Brooklyn Breeze, 12.45, Ayr f/c 11/8 Log on Intersky, 1.55, Ayr f/c 13/8 This that and other 2.05, Cheltenham f/c 10/11 Updated bank 10.33pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyPunt Posted November 16, 2003 Author Share Posted November 16, 2003 Re: Sunday picks Brooklyn Breeze a non-runner?:rolleyes Bank 11.33pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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