snyena Posted October 5, 2004 Share Posted October 5, 2004 I have decided to post my virtual bets here. I lack the discipline to do this with real money (I end up placing non-value bets and/or I just bet for the sake of betting). I have been following various sports (especially football) since my childhood and I believe I have enough expertise to spot a value bet when I see one. The reason why I am going to use such a "play it by ear" system is that I am not aware of a method that considers all the important, outcome-relevant variables. I will post 100 bets to begin with. Let's wait and see what comes out of this. I am hoping to increase my bank by 5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted October 5, 2004 Share Posted October 5, 2004 Re: The "snyena" system Good luck :clap And a nice attitude to see from a newbie :ok Welcome to PL :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 6, 2004 Author Share Posted October 6, 2004 Bet #1 Thank you Mr Intensity. -------- Starting bank: 100 Stake: always 1 unit My first bet is: 10/9/04 SLOVAKIA v Latvia @ 2.02 Betfair If my bet wins, I will deduct the 5% Betfair fee from the profit. I was going to wait with this bet but I noticed the odds dropped from 2.07 (today morning) to 2.02 and I don't want them to drop even further. They might or might not do that, but 2.02 is still good enough for reasons I am going to explain below. I have little experience with how odds fluctuate in time (I tried to test this on Premier League games but I didn't notice any special pattern that applies to all games). Recent games (WC qualifiers): Slovakia 7 Liechtenstein 0 Russia 1 Slovakia 1 Luxembourg 3 Latvia 4 Latvia 0 Portugal 2 Key players: Slovakia: Nemeth (FC Middlesbrough), Vittek, Mintal (both 1.FC Nurnberg), Varga (Celtic), Karhan (Wolfsburg) Latvia: Verpakovskis (Dynamo Kyiv), Prohorenkovs (Dinamo Moscow), Pahars (injured, out until October 16) I watched the Slovakia v Russia game, Slovakia could and should have won with Nemeth and Mintal missing one sitter each. Slovakia dominated the whole second half in a fashion that is not usual for an away team. While Latvia are certainly not a team to write off, I can see Slovakia scoring at least one more goal in this game even if Latvia pack their midfield. The in-form Nemeth is having a good season for Middlesbrough and his goal/minute ratio is very good, Mintal has already scored 4 goals in the German Bundesliga (which is a very good record for a midfielder in a newly promoted side), and Mintal's teammate Vittek has been scoring for fun as well (1 goal against Dortmund last weekend, a hattrick against Liechtenstein and an equalizer against Russia). If these three fail, there's always Varga who could head one in from a set piece. Other factors I considered: There isn't a single player from the Slovak league in the Slovak team and only 1 such player in the squad. Latvian players play mostly in Russian and Ukrainian clubs and Skonto Riga so the international experience should be on Slovakia's side. That and Slovakia's home advantage could be the decisive factors in this fixture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 7, 2004 Author Share Posted October 7, 2004 team news The odds have dropped further on Betfair, 1.96. I am almost tempted to bet with real money because the Latvian team is falling apart. Here is the team that has been starting lately (European Championship and the 2 qualifiers). It seems that at least 4 players are certain to be out for the Slovakia game: Kolinko (injured but should be back) -------- Isakovs Zemlinskis (banned - 2 yellow cards) Stepanovs (very unlikely) Blagonadeždins (injured - will not play) -------- Bleidelis Lobanovs Astafjevs (injured but should be back) Rubins (eye problems after a ball hit him in the face, claims he cannot play in the coming games) -------- Verpakovskis Prochorenkovs (banned - 2 yellow cards) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 7, 2004 Share Posted October 7, 2004 The "snyena" system Some fantastic onformation there. I usually avoid the "minor" nations as I not too sure how bad some of them are but miht well have an interest in this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 9, 2004 Author Share Posted October 9, 2004 the drop Less than 100 minutes to kick-off now and it is possible to lay Slovakia on Betfair at 1.83. It seems I did spot a value bet last Monday after all. I could lay off my bet and go for a small profit with no risk, but I feel rather confident and I am leaving things as they are. Nemeth to score a brace! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 10, 2004 Author Share Posted October 10, 2004 Re: the drop Slovakia 4 Latvia 1 :) Goals by Nemeth, Reiter, Karhan (2) and Verpakovskis for Latvia. Will update the bank when I post my next pick, I want to be careful and post good recommendations only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 10, 2004 Share Posted October 10, 2004 The "snyena" system Great bet. Well researched. Keep them coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DannyCash Posted October 12, 2004 Share Posted October 12, 2004 Re: The "snyena" system :clap Nice start mate! (good old Nemeth!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 12, 2004 Author Share Posted October 12, 2004 Bet #2 Bet #2: 10/12/04 Inter Bratislava v ARTMEDIA @ 1.65 (Gamebookers) Starting bank: 100.00 Current bank: 99.96 Total staked 2.00 Settled bets: 1 Bets pending: 1 Winning bets 1 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 100.00% Yield: 99.96% Profit/Loss: +0.96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 12, 2004 Author Share Posted October 12, 2004 ... Bet #2: 10/12/04 Inter Bratislava v ARTMEDIA @ 1.65 1:3 :) Starting bank: 100.00 Current bank: 101.61 Total staked 2.00 Settled bets: 2 Winning bets 2 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 100.00% Yield: 80.00% Profit/Loss: +1.61 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 13, 2004 Author Share Posted October 13, 2004 Bet #3 Bet #2: 10/13/04 Chile v ARGENTINA @ 1.6 (Gamebookers) Too bad I didn't have time to place this bet earlier in the week when it was possible to get better odds. The question I ask myself now is: Would Argentina win 2 out of 3 games like this? I think they would, hence this bet. They seem to be in an excellent shape whereas the Chile national team is disrupted and their coach is on the verge of getting a sack. Let's hope this game will not save his ass! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 13, 2004 Author Share Posted October 13, 2004 mistake My previous bet should have been #3. Sorry for the mistake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 14, 2004 Author Share Posted October 14, 2004 ... Bet #2: 10/13/04 Chile v ARGENTINA @ 1.6 LOST Starting bank: 100.00 Current bank: 100.61 Total staked 3.00 Settled bets: 3 Winning bets 2 Losing bets: 1 Strike rate: 66.66% Yield: 20.00% Profit/Loss: +0.61 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 14, 2004 Author Share Posted October 14, 2004 Bet #4 Bet #4: 10/15/04 NURNBERG ICE TIGERS v Iserlohn @ 1.4 (Gamebookers) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 16, 2004 Author Share Posted October 16, 2004 Bet #4 Bet #4: 10/15/04 NURNBERG ICE TIGERS 9 Iserlohn 2 WON Starting bank: 100.00 Current bank: 101.01 Total staked 4.00 Settled bets: 4 Winning bets: 3 Losing bets: 1 Strike rate: 75.00% Yield: 25.00% Profit/Loss: +1.01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 16, 2004 Author Share Posted October 16, 2004 Bets #5 - #8 Bet #5: 10/16/04 BOLTON v Crystal Palace @ 1.63 (Gamebookers) Bet #6: 10/16/04 EVERTON v Southampton @ 1.79 (Betfair) Bet #7: 10/16/04 Plymouth v WIGAN @ 2.5 (Bet365) Bet #8: 10/16/04 NURNBERG v Freiburg @ 1.95 (Gamebookers) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 17, 2004 Author Share Posted October 17, 2004 Bets #5-8 Bet #5: 10/16/04 BOLTON 1 Crystal Palace 0 WON Bet #6: 10/16/04 EVERTON 1 Southampton 0 WON Bet #7: 10/16/04 Plymouth 1 WIGAN 2 WON Bet #8: 10/16/04 NURNBERG 3 Freiburg 0 WON Starting bank: 100.00 Current bank: 104.39 Total staked 8.00 Settled bets: 8 Winning bets: 7 Losing bets: 1 Strike rate: 87.50% Yield: 54.85% Profit/Loss: +4.39 Edit: Messed up formatting, hopefully fixed now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 17, 2004 Share Posted October 17, 2004 The "snyena" system Nice work so far. Let's hope it keeps up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 23, 2004 Author Share Posted October 23, 2004 Bet #9 Bet #9: 10/23/04 WIGAN v Coventry @ 1.55 (Gamebookers) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 24, 2004 Author Share Posted October 24, 2004 Re: Bet #9 Bet #9: 10/23/04 WIGAN 4 Coventry 1 WON Starting bank: 100.00 Current bank: 104.94 Strike rate: 8/9 (88.88%) Yield: 54.88% Profit/Loss: +4.94 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 26, 2004 Author Share Posted October 26, 2004 Bets 10-12 My latest 3 picks disappeared during the website transition, so here goes again: Bet #10: 10/26/04 PORTSMOUTH v Leeds @ 1.57 (Bet365) Bet #11: 10/27/04 SOUTHAMPTON v Colchester @ 1.4 (Bet365) Bet #12: 10/27/04 MIDDLESBROUGH v Coventry @ 1.48 (Betfair) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 26, 2004 Author Share Posted October 26, 2004 Re: The "snyena" system Bet #10: 10/26/04 PORTSMOUTH 2 Leeds 1 WON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 27, 2004 Author Share Posted October 27, 2004 Re: The "snyena" system Bet #11: 10/27/04 SOUTHAMPTON 3 Colchester 2 WON Bet #12: 10/27/04 MIDDLESBROUGH 3 Coventry 0 WON Am I good or what? :-) I made a table in Excel that calculates what my bank would be with various percentage stakes of the bank: 1% stakes: 107.03 2% stakes: 114.44 5% stakes: 139.33 10% stakes: 190.71 20% stakes: 339.92 Anyways, I won't get too excited before I can pull this off with 100 bets, but I realize that would be sick and it is hardly posible. I am not going to post picks too often because I like my winning streak and I want my picks to be very safe (very high hitrate) and good value. Starting bank: 100.00 Current bank: 106.82 Strike rate: 11/12 (91.67%) Yield: 56.83% Profit/Loss: +6.82 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 29, 2004 Author Share Posted October 29, 2004 Bet #13 Bet #13: 10/30/04 DERBY v Rotherdam @ 1.6 (Gamebookers) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted October 30, 2004 Author Share Posted October 30, 2004 Bet #13 Bet #13: 10/30/04 DERBY 3 Rotherdam 2 WON Starting bank: 100.00 Current bank: 107.42 Strike rate: 12/13 (92.31%) Yield: 57.08% Profit: +7.42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted November 1, 2004 Author Share Posted November 1, 2004 Bet #14 Bet #14: 11/01/04 SUNDERLAND v Wolverhampton @ 1.85 (Gamebookers) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 Re: Bet #14 Bet #14: 11/01/04 SUNDERLAND v Wolverhampton @ 1.85 (Gamebookers) I think you got the date wrong. Should be 11/02/04, today! Im gonna lump on at your advice!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snyena Posted November 2, 2004 Author Share Posted November 2, 2004 Re: The "snyena" system True, I messed up the date. I know I have been successful so far and I have a streak of 10 wins, but the Sod's law says my pick will lose just when you bet a lot of money on it. I do think the odds are too generous and a home win is the most likely result, so it is ok to bet. But no crazy stakes please, this system is still very young. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted November 2, 2004 Share Posted November 2, 2004 Re: The "snyena" system When i said lump on i meant €5!!!! :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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