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New Approach set to run in Derby!

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WoodyTHFC

WoodyTHFC

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Re: New Approach set to run in Derby! Pleased to hear that the horse might be running, mind you the way this story has evolved, I will wait until I actually see it. I am pleased because I think this horse will be suited by the increased trip and whilst it was shown to be a good miler (2 seconds in the Guineas') I think it could potentially be an exceptional middle distance horse. However the way this whole thing has been handled has left a sour taste in the mouth. Indeed to call it a public relations disaster from Bolger would be a fair statement imo.

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stewartd14

stewartd14

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Re: New Approach set to run in Derby! Had to have a wee bet when there were 1st doubts. I always thought he was a Derby horse and the price was just too big. Small stakes but great odds. Just praying for a good run now:

spacer.gif O GB / Epsm 7th Jun / The Derby TBP New Approach Back 15-May-08 17:14 15 4.39 15.23 15-May-08 17:14 spacer.gif
spacer.gif O GB / Epsm 7th Jun / The Derby New Approach Back 15-May-08 17:13 42 2.00 42 15-May-08 17:13 spacer.gif
spacer.gif O GB / Epsm 7th Jun / The Derby New Approach Back 15-May-08 17:13 44 3.00 44 15-May-08 17:13
:nana:hope:hope
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billy the punter

billy the punter

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Re: New Approach set to run in Derby! Good luck to all that are on, this isn't a crab to you, but, how many of those that run well in the Guineas despite being middle distance bred, ACTUALLY go on to progress in the Derby? 1994 Mister Baileys (Robellino) 1st - 4th in the Derby. 1995 Pennekamp (Bering) 1st - tailed in the Derby (another coincidental lame beaten favourite ;)) 1996 Alhaarth (Unfuwain) 4th - 5th in the Derby. 1997 Entrepeneur (Sadler's) 1st - 4th in the Derby. 1998 King Of Kings (Sadler's) 1st - tailed in Derby (reported to finish lame - what else could they say?) 1998 Haami (Nashwan) 5th - tailed in the Derby, back to 8/9f after. 2001 Golan (Spectrum) 1st - 2nd in Derby. 2003 Refuse To Bend (Sadler's) 1st - tailed in Derby, back to 8/10f after. Colonel Collins (1994) and Even Top (1996) were both placed in the 2000 but expected to improve for the longer trip. CC was 3rd in the Derby, Even Top was tailed. Grey area is Hawk Wing being out of Woodman, he did finish 2nd (same position) in the Derby but revereted back to shorter trips thereafter. It's quite rare for a genuine middle distance bred horse to figure in the 2000 and I always worry that those with enough toe to race prominently in the 2000 do not fully stay the 1m4f - despite breeding. It isn't cut and dry but I do think they don't improve as much as you would think for the step up to their apparent needed distance.

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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: New Approach set to run in Derby! Billy, I am sure you know, the sire is only half of the picture, many of those you quote were unlikely to stay due to a precocious female line. I backed just two Guineas winners at Epsom Nashwan and Golan. I do share your doubts about New Approach though. My bet on NA is only a vey small one, nowhere near what I have on Tajaaweed. New Approach is bred to get the Derby trip but that does not mean he will get it. So far I believe he has front run on all but one start. He does have quirks and it may be front running is important to him, possibly does not like being in behind horses. Those horses who are too enthusiastic often fail to stay as far as their pedigrees suggest. I'd say it is no more than 60 / 40 to stay 1m4f, thats apart from the probability of temperament problems. Thanks for reminding me about Pennekamp. I had ante-post bets on Celtic Swing for the 2000 Guineas, and Pennekamp for the Derby (16/1). Pennekamp beat Celtic Swing in the 2000 before being injured in the Derby. Ginge

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billy the punter

billy the punter

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Re: New Approach set to run in Derby!

Billy, I am sure you know, the sire is only half of the picture, many of those you quote were unlikely to stay due to a precocious female line. I backed just two Guineas winners at Epsom Nashwan and Golan. I do share your doubts about New Approach though. My bet on NA is only a vey small one, nowhere near what I have on Tajaaweed. New Approach is bred to get the Derby trip but that does not mean he will get it. So far I believe he has front run on all but one start. He does have quirks and it may be front running is important to him, possibly does not like being in behind horses. Those horses who are too enthusiastic often fail to stay as far as their pedigrees suggest. I'd say it is no more than 60 / 40 to stay 1m4f, thats apart from the probability of temperament problems. Thanks for reminding me about Pennekamp. I had ante-post bets on Celtic Swing for the 2000 Guineas, and Pennekamp for the Derby (16/1). Pennekamp beat Celtic Swing in the 2000 before being injured in the Derby. Ginge
Exactly, that's my point. Breeding is never the full picture, actual form and running style are maybe more important. That's what I'm saying, those that have the toe to figure in a mile classic are surely going to struggle to stay. Which is obviously why so few have failed to do the 2000/Derby double. Not impossible, it just takes a special horse to do so. Nashwan was before my time, Golan was the only one I backed out the list also. He faired best of those mentioned and is only one that ended up a genuine 12f horse. Worth noting that Golan had no other top mile form - went straight from a soft ground maiden to the 2000. Nashwan didn't go down the top-class 2yo race route either and had a fairly quiet 2yo season. Wonder if this coincidence, is it possible a horse to have a heavy 2yo season, go for 3/4 Group 1s, run in the 2000 and then go for the Derby? Is it asking too much? Can you keep a horse 100% this long?
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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: New Approach set to run in Derby!

Do you mean it'll be against him due to stamina limitations?
Well, that as well. But last season in the Dewhurst Rio was below form on good-soft. He also improved greatly on his second start, after a good-soft debut. Has a fluent, flowing action unlikely to be seen to best advantage. Sire Rahy's progeny are usually best on a sound surface. Ginge
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billy the punter

billy the punter

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Re: New Approach set to run in Derby! I thought the under-par run in the Dewhurst was due to it coming a little too quick personaly. I agree that it wouldn't be ideal and connections voiced similar concerns last season, BUT given he won a Group 1 on G/S you'd have to think they'd take a chance now we're this close? Any predictions re the ground? I'm hoping it'll dry out considerably as I have runner on both days and fancy a few over the meeting that won't like it too soft.

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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: New Approach set to run in Derby!

I thought the under-par run in the Dewhurst was due to it coming a little too quick personaly. I agree that it wouldn't be ideal and connections voiced similar concerns last season, BUT given he won a Group 1 on G/S you'd have to think they'd take a chance now we're this close? Any predictions re the ground? I'm hoping it'll dry out considerably as I have runner on both days and fancy a few over the meeting that won't like it too soft.
Was the official going good-soft for Rio's Grand Criterium win? Thought it was good. Anyway, times and results that weekend suggest it was good. Dylan Thomas, Benbaun and Rio De La Plata are all thought best on a sound surface. Think the clerk believes the going will either be good-soft good in places or the other way around. There is apparently another newly forecast band of rain that might hit friday. Ginge
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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: New Approach set to run in Derby! After going back to read exactly what Jim Bolger said and when he said it, I now consider what happened as this.... At the start of the season Jim Bolger was worried about how New Approach would cope with the preliminaries at Epsom. Whether his temperament will stand it. However, if Bolger came out and said this outright he would risk damaging the horses stud career. With breeders unwilling to use a horse with temperament problems. Remember how Aiden said George Washington had a big ego, well horses don't have egos they have temperament. I think most connections do not tell the whole truth when it comes to their horse's temperament, especially stallion prospects. The decision was made not to go to Epsom with Bolger making all sorts of excuses why he would not run. As a two year old New Approach ran well on good-firm, before improving in the Dewhurst on a soft surface (never ran on firm). So Bolger believed the horse acted on any going. But in the Irish Guineas NA ran with his head to one side and below form, obviously hating the firm going. So it was now evident New Approach would not run on firm again, and Bolger said if it came up firm in the Irish Derby he would miss the race. The English Derby is usually run on a firm surface too, so he reiterated comments that he will not go to Epsom. However, when it was clear Epsom would be good or softer, it became a safe alternative. Why wait for the Irish version if that could be firm? When Epsom will have perfect ground. New Approach has not shown the same quirks in either race this term that he showed as a two year old. It seems his temperament has improved. So there is now no real reason to avoid Epsom. With Bolger having a more attacking policy with his best horses than most other trainers, (racing them more often) it is not unusual for him to run in two races close together. Bolger is never afraid to change plans. Finscael Beo surprised people when turning up at Longchamp for the French Guineas before going for the Irish version. Lush Lashes ran in the Musidora, not long after the Guineas. In making those excuses why New Approach would not run, Bolger did mislead the betting public. But only by (probably) changing the reason for New Approach not running. At the time he had no intention running the horse. However circumstances change. I am fairly sure it was not an error keeping the horse in the race. Whether it was on Sheikh Mohammed's insistence, keeping all options open, just in case a minor injury ruled him out of the Irish Guineas, whatever. Even at that point I still do not believe Bolger had any intention running. With Bolger's record and changing circumstances, I do not believe it that surprising New Approach runs in the Derby, even allowing for what he said. Ginge

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