Mr Intensity Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 Right, one bad week and one good on clay, hopefully keep moving in the right direction this week. A lot of quality in Barcelona, not so much in Munich and the WTA tournaments look awful so don't think I'll be playing much there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May I think Stan Wawrinka has a decent outside shot of being runner up to Nadal in Barca. Stan James has him at 150/1 but no each way option. He's 80/1 1/3 odds at bet365 which I suppose is a better bet unless Nadal pulls out injured early? I'm too hungover for maths right now He'll probably play a qualifier in the 1st 2 rounds and followed by Nalbandian who he has a very good record against in the 3rd. QF would be against an opponent from a very weak section (Karlovic and Nieminen being the seeds) Wawrinka 80/1 bet365 e/w 2/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May 150/1 is obviously a better bet here - you just have to lay back a part of it on BF should he make the final;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 27, 2008 Author Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Good luck with that mate, Stan is quality and anything can happen in ATP tournaments this year:ok LAPENTTI @ 3.5 Bet365. Lapentti looks a little big here, as he is playing pretty well lately. Verdasco beat him 5-7 6-3 6-4 a couple of weeks ago in a match which could have gone either way and this looks a decent chance for revenge. I watched quite a bit of Lapentii in Monte Carlo and he was playing pretty well. He came through qualifying and got a tough win over Starace before losing to Tipsarevic in a match where he had chances and was a set up. Verdasco is effective on clay but isn’t very trustworthy, especially at a short price like this. Expect another close match between these 2 and I don’t think Lapentti should be over 3.00 to get his first win over the Spaniard. ROCHUS @ 1.72 Bet365. Rochus looks to be a solid fav here. He’s playing really well the last few weeks, definitely over the slump he had last year and the start of this year. Past couple of weeks he’s performed well against Federer and an inspired Nalbandian and could have a decent run here. He has an excellent 8-3 record here including reaching the semis in 2004 and winning in 2006. Cilic showed a lot of promise at the start of the year but since the Aussie Open he’s been awful, going 3-7 including blowing a set and a break lead over Kiefer last week who isn’t very good on clay. I don’t rate Cilic on clay much, he’s got a good record and has won some challengers, but still I think he’ll struggle at ATP level. Especially against a grinder like Rochus, Cilic’s movement should be exposed and expect Rochus to come out the victor. BOLELLI @ 1.83 Ladbrokes. I’ve said it a few times Bolelli is a player I like, and I’m willing to take him here. He has potential on clay and was pretty good last week taking care of Chela before putting up a decent fight against Davydenko. Gicquel pushed Davydenko really hard in Estoril, but that was a strange match with rain delays and Davy really seemed to lose focus. Last week Gicquel lost to Nieminen where he had a back problem and was really struggling, not sure what type of shape he’ll be in here. Even without that problem, I’d take Bolelli as the superior clay court player and this price is reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted April 27, 2008 Share Posted April 27, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May 150/1 is obviously a better bet here - you just have to lay back a part of it on BF should he make the final;) problem is he'll likely be 10/1 in the final. I've had a small dabble on that as well anyway. Nadal is going to have to play 4 consecutive weeks to defend his clay points so if he's feeling any sort of niggle then this'll be the event he retires in I reckon. The placement of the qualifiers in the draw has been kind to him as well. He's not the most reliable guy around but it's as near to a 3rd round bye as possible. Bolelli looks a decent price there. I was quite impressed by Gicquel by Davydenko but apart from that I've always considered him a bit of a mug on clay. Main worry would be how Bolleli handles Gicquel's big serve. Bolelli must be the worst returner in the top 50 based on the few matches I've seen him play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinningTipster Posted April 28, 2008 Share Posted April 28, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Hi guys, 4 bets for tomorrow: ATP TOUR, MUNICH SAFIN TO D BERLOCQ @ 1.45 at betfair Safin is back on form with 3 OK tournaments. Berlocq just back to Europe from Bermuda where he reach a semifinal of Challenger playing several long matches (last one on Saturday). ATP TOUR, BARCELONA STARACE TO D LUCZAK @ 1.3 at betfair Similar reasoning to Safin's pick: Luczak is just back from Bermuda while Starace is just the most typical clay court player who loves slow clay courts in Barcelona. WTA TOUR, FES REZAI TO D KING @ 1.5 LOIT TO D O'BRIEN @ 1.5 Two good clay court players against players who's worst surface is clay. No exact odds for both of these matches but it looks like the odds will be around 1.5 from preliminary Betfair prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 28, 2008 Author Share Posted April 28, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May 2-1 today with big price Lapentti winning and Bolelli very easy. How come I feel disappointed?:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 28, 2008 Author Share Posted April 28, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May BERRER @ 2.84 Betfair. Got to have a go against Haas here. He’s had one good tournament this year when he pulled out with a sinus problem. Last week he retired against Rochus with a shoulder problem and I’m not convinced about his fitness this week at all. He has family in Munich which is the reason he is playing here. He has a decent record in this event, however, he has lost 1st round in the past two years so maybe he’s not totally focussed on the tournament. Anyway, even if he comes in with decent fitness Berrer has the ability to cause him problems. Berrer is a player I like, and despite not being at his best he does play a lot on it in German tournaments and it would be big for him to get a win over Haas. His form this year isn’t great, but it looks to be largely because he’s playing more ATP tournaments rather than challengers. This bet is mostly against Haas’ fitness. MONFILS @ 2.62 Paddy. Last week Andreev got on a roll but I’m certain it doesn’t make him this much of a favourite for this match. He beat Tursunov who is a clay court mug, Youzhny who retired then Almagro who played an appalling match. He then lost to Davydenko in a very poor quality match. His form has been extremely up and down this year – to emphasise that, he hasn’t won matches in consecutive weeks so far this year! I was impressed with Monfils last week until he met Federer, as I said then he’s found his form again and I think he’ll have a very strong clay season. H2H is 2-1 to Andreev but they’ve never met on clay. For me, this is a 50/50 match and this is a really big price. CUEVAS @ 1.71 Pinnacle. I've said a few times this year I like Cuevas and this seems to be a decent chance to back him. He took a bad loss to wonderkid Harrison a few weeks ago but I think he'll get over that. He beat Ginepri last week and had a tough loss to Young, concern he pulled out of the doubles but that was after the long match against Young so maybe he was just tired (cited a knee injury). Anyway, he's the far superior player here and I expect him to win. Brzezicki is on a very poor run, 2-8 in his last 10 matches including the fixed match against Hernandez. I think this should be comfortable for Cuevas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KurtFurtmustahl Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May nice call as usual Mr I with cuevas... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bossie13 Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May 2-1 today with big price Lapentti winning and Bolelli very easy. How come I feel disappointed?:sad I followed you on all 3 Mr.I and I wasn't disappointed at all ;). And today we started again with winning some cash with Cuevas Thx again.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 29, 2008 Author Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May nice call as usual Mr I with cuevas... I followed you on all 3 Mr.I and I wasn't disappointed at all ;). And today we started again with winning some cash with Cuevas Thx again.:ok Cheers guys it's a good start to the week:ok. Would love to hit at least 1 of the dogs this afternoon:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KurtFurtmustahl Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Mr I i hope you´ll hit both of them... btw guys! does anybody know what´s goin on in munich? none of the matches started yet according to all livescore sites i know... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 29, 2008 Author Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Mr I i hope you´ll hit both of them... btw guys! does anybody know what´s goin on in munich? none of the matches started yet according to all livescore sites i know... Raining all day so far:sad Forecast is for it to be better this afternoon:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Bets Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Although the Ancic and Murray match today looks quite even going on past records, I think Murray will be far too strong in this match on Clay. He moves better, is a more consistent hitter of the ball and is playing in decent form at present. Murray at $1.72 with Lasseters for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 29, 2008 Author Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Raining all day so far:sad Forecast is for it to be better this afternoon:ok Looks like play about to start:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj_fish Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May ancic grew up on clay, he must be fav on this surface. hope for easy win:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twinky99 Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Mr I, im thinking on betting on Gonzalez, Azarenka and Darcis for today. what are you opinions on these? thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 29, 2008 Author Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Mr I, im thinking on betting on Gonzalez, Azarenka and Darcis for today. what are you opinions on these? thanks! I'm probably too late as Gonzo has started. He's 5-2 up so not much point in me saying he should win;) Becker is awful on clay, and it should be easy for Darcis. Slight injury concern over Darcis and he is very inconsistant, but still be should be fine. I don't know much about the girl Azarenka is playing - I remember seeing her name a few times last year but I've never seen her play. Kvitova is playing at home and won an ITF tournament at the start of the month so could be dangerous. Azarenka in pretty average form so might be one to leave alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Kvitova also won in Fed Cup in Israel at the weekend - beating Peer;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBAShrewdie Posted April 29, 2008 Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Haas has pulled out with shoulder problems. Why couldn't he have played one point and then retired lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 29, 2008 Author Share Posted April 29, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Oh well, 1-1 today after Haas withdraws:(. I like a lot here..... DANIEL @ 1.83 Will Hill. Typical claycourter vs hard court player here and I have to go against Tursunov. He’s capable on clay, but very impatient and this will be a bad match up for him. Tursunov beat Kevin Anderson in the first round but that will have been a much better match up and I don’t see it having much bearing. Daniel has been in very good form the last couple of months, he’s 15-4 since the start of March including a win and a final at challenger level. He beat Navarro Pastor in the first round comfortable and is a clear favourite here. HAASE @ 3.7 Pinnacle. I’m really tempted by this price. Haase is not someone I like on clay that much, but he is definitely a big match player. This could be a good opportunity for him to get a big win. Robredo has been awful this year, but he has been improved and getting more wins the past few weeks. However, he was humiliated by Nalbandian last week and it will be interesting to see how he reacts. Robredo has a very good record here, but this year he looks to be lacking confidence and he is opposable here. MONTANES @ 2.00 Boylesports. Montanes has struggled this year, having a few back problems, but got a good win over Granollers-Pujol in the first round. He’s a good clay courter and could be due a run. He’s reached the semis here before and would probably have a better record if it weren’t for some very tough draws (first round losses to Gaudio, Davydenko, Ferrero and Berdych). Karlovic definitely looks opposable. He’s been pretty poor this year and was very poor last week only getting a win over Grosjean via retirement then losing to Monfils. He had a very good run to the quarters here 2 years ago, however, at odds against I have to go for the clay courter. VOLANDRI @ 3.25 Ladbrokes. This looks a reasonable price for Volandri. Almagro has been getting wins recently, but I don’t think he’s playing as well as he was in South America earlier in the year. He blew up against Ferrer and was dreadful against Andreev last week. Volandri has been struggling a bit recently, but this is his time of the year to start performing and I’m willing to back him here. H2H is 4-3 to Almagro with a couple of wins this year, but Volandri did beat Almagro in this tournament last year, and anything at 3.00 or above looks a nice price. GULBIS @ 3.02 Pinnacle. Oh my, another big dog that I like. Now, Moya used to be the big dog on clay but his day is certainly past and he seems to be struggling this year. He had two good tournaments, in Chennai losing an epic to Nadal in the semis and in Brasil reaching the final losing an epic to Almagro. Apart from that he’s done pretty much nothing and had a shocker last week against Querrey. Gulbis hasn’t done too much this year and has put in some pretty awful performances, but he’s also had some pretty tough draws (Ljubicic at home, Ginepri in form, final set breakers against Nalbandian and Davydenko). He beat Tipsarevic who retired in the first round but still Gulbis seemed to be playing well. He has massive potential and his ball bashing style can really hurt Moya, pinning him back in his backhand corner. These two met in the US Open last 16 last year when Moya came through in a tight match, that should pump Gulbis up for this and I fancy him to take revenge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanke Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May GULBIS @ 3.02 Pinnacle. Oh my, another big dog that I like. Now, Moya used to be the big dog on clay but his day is certainly past and he seems to be struggling this year. He had two good tournaments, in Chennai losing an epic to Nadal in the semis and in Brasil reaching the final losing an epic to Almagro. Apart from that he’s done pretty much nothing and had a shocker last week against Querrey. Gulbis hasn’t done too much this year and has put in some pretty awful performances, but he’s also had some pretty tough draws (Ljubicic at home, Ginepri in form, final set breakers against Nalbandian and Davydenko). He beat Tipsarevic who retired in the first round but still Gulbis seemed to be playing well. He has massive potential and his ball bashing style can really hurt Moya, pinning him back in his backhand corner. These two met in the US Open last 16 last year when Moya came through in a tight match, that should pump Gulbis up for this and I fancy him to take revenge. Hi mate, first all great work with your analysis and previews, good luck Well, about Gulbis vs Moya, dunno if you watched match in US Open, i watched in TV (I am from Spain), I remember that i was on Gulbis this match, he came from play really well and Moya bad, but this match wasnt closed, simply Moya was very clever playing against him, playing soft balls, not attacking and Gulbis made around 70 unforcer errors, even i remember that Moya was a bit injured and he won more or less easy Sure that Gulbis at high odds is worth to take, and Moya not in good form, but probably experiencie plus play at home can be important... anyway good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanke Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May I have in mind one bet in Barcelona Gremelmayr against Blake, i dunno about motivation of Blake in Barcelona tournament, never he plays small tournaments in clay in Europe, he was invited 2-3 days before start tournament, because some playres withdraw (Davydenko and other that not remember)... Gremelmayr making decent clayseason, i see good shoot take german player at odds 3 Opinions are welcome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinningTipster Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Hi guys, Just 1 bet for today: ATP TOUR, BARCELONA ROBREDO TO D HAASE @ 1.43 at pinnacle Robredo loves slow Barcelona clay and he had an OK Monte-Carlo tournament. Haase will have to attack against him and probably will make too many unforced errors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 30, 2008 Author Share Posted April 30, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Hi mate, first all great work with your analysis and previews, good luck Well, about Gulbis vs Moya, dunno if you watched match in US Open, i watched in TV (I am from Spain), I remember that i was on Gulbis this match, he came from play really well and Moya bad, but this match wasnt closed, simply Moya was very clever playing against him, playing soft balls, not attacking and Gulbis made around 70 unforcer errors, even i remember that Moya was a bit injured and he won more or less easy Sure that Gulbis at high odds is worth to take, and Moya not in good form, but probably experiencie plus play at home can be important... anyway good luck :welcometo PL shanke! Yeah I saw that match and I thought Moya really struggled with Gulbis' style. Yeah Moya played a clever match but was in much better form then and I think Gulbis' lack of experience showed on the bg stage. Very different match today, but I just mentioned it because it was the biggest match of Gulbis' career, and I'm sure he'll remember it today;). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 30, 2008 Author Share Posted April 30, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May I have in mind one bet in Barcelona Gremelmayr against Blake, i dunno about motivation of Blake in Barcelona tournament, never he plays small tournaments in clay in Europe, he was invited 2-3 days before start tournament, because some playres withdraw (Davydenko and other that not remember)... Gremelmayr making decent clayseason, i see good shoot take german player at odds 3 Opinions are welcome Agree with what you say. But the thing is, why is Blake playing here? It's like Querrey playing last week when all the other Americans didn't bother coming over. It would be very easy for Blake to just turn up for Rome/Hamburg and the French then the grass season. But he's playing here, so maybe he's motivated to do some damage on the clay this year? Grem still has a good shot and has been playing well lately, good luck with it:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twinky99 Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May thanks MR. I, easy win on Darcis today :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanke Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Agree with what you say. But the thing is, why is Blake playing here? It's like Querrey playing last week when all the other Americans didn't bother coming over. It would be very easy for Blake to just turn up for Rome/Hamburg and the French then the grass season. But he's playing here, so maybe he's motivated to do some damage on the clay this year? Grem still has a good shot and has been playing well lately, good luck with it:hope Querrey likes play on clay, too last year he played in Barcelona, i was in tournament watching in live, and he has good tennis for play in clay About Blake, dunno i think that he is here because he was invited... and why not some days in Barcelona? nice city haha Normally Blake never plays small European tournaments on clay, only play AMS with not good results... anwyay is sure that Blake class is 2-3 better than Grem, so if he is motivated is enough for win... but dunno, for me sound temptings odds... we will see P.S: Sorry for my bad english Regards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twinky99 Posted April 30, 2008 Share Posted April 30, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Mr I, im trying to go for Blake, Cristea and Sretbonik today, what do you think? thanks for input! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted April 30, 2008 Author Share Posted April 30, 2008 Re: ATP Barcelona/Munich & WTA Fes/Prague 28th Apr - 4th May Mr I, im trying to go for Blake, Cristea and Sretbonik today, what do you think? thanks for input! Thoughts on the Blake match are above. I've never seen Pavlyuchenkova but she has a very big junior reputation and has won a couple of ITF tournaments indoors in the past month. She came through qualifying here and won her first round very easily. Looks like a match to leave alone because Pavlyuchenkova is an unknown. Srebotnik should win easily. Very slight concern that Czink came through qualifying but that's less of a factor in the second round, and Srebotniks game is far too big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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