Folkstone 10/04/08

[billy the punter]

3.15 Golden Desert is the paper jolly here and is deservedly fancied as he is fairly well treated. He won his last start off 84 but runs here off his turf rating which is 4lb lower. He has only managed to find the frame in one of his six turf starts however. Of those five unplaced turf runs, two came at odds of 33/1 or bigger and one was a close up 4th. It may be folly to say he is purely an A/W performer at this stage. Paul Cole is in great form, has had five winners from his last eleven runners and all his last six have won or been in the frame. His Andronikos would pick these up and carry them at his best but is winless in three years (24 starts). 10 of those starts however have come on the A/W (9 on the faster tracks) and that wouldn't have suited him, three of his four turf wins have come on soft or very soft. He has a couple of ok performances under his belt lately but on the whole has been disappointing since his last win. He has worn a tounge-tie most of his career and blinkers once recently, but he had no headgear at all for three of his four wins - he has no headgear today for the first time in a long while. He has been tried with it for a reason though, he is clearly quirky these days, but has dropped to a low mark and he will appreciate the give. Good jockey booking too, only De Souza and Quinny have ridden more winners for the stable in the past five seasons. Don Pele and Mujood have always run shockers on their seasonal debuts. Stamford Blue looks a little out of sorts, Hits Only Jude may find life tough off 80, especially on turf and Bonnie Prince Blue is too inconsistent to carry my money. Dickie Le Davoir is well in on past form and he has been running consistently of late, he's in good heart and could make this lowly mark pay, although it's a worry he hasn't picked up more races off this mark in his past few runs. He will like the going but in my opinion he is a better horse over 7f. Nobilissima ran some great races last season, she has ran above form when fresh and if she has improved over the winter she could easily figure here. All her best form is with give and Liam Jones is 1/1 on her. Stable's runners have been running well without winning. I'll be looking towards Andronikos, Nobilissima, and Golden Desert for my selection(s) in this race. I'm certain Andronikos will be a bet, but during writing I became unsure about the 2nd selection. Will post this as it is anyway and comfirm selection tomorrow. Andronikos Nobilissima Golden Desert

[Carl]

Re: Folkstone 10/04/08 great work again billy:ok Party in the Park 2.40 Folkstone According to the stats runners with a weights of 9-2 or less have a good record in 3yo Handicap's here so it could pay to look at the bottom of the card. Party in the Park was in decent form early last year with his best result being in a class 2 2nd behind Achilles of Troy over 5f at HQ. He was 5length's off the winner that day but stayed on well and maybe this 6f will suit him better. He tailed off at the end of last season but should go well today being fresh if he can over come the poor draw. 4/1 I think Whiteoak Lady (8/1) could sneak a place from stall 3.

Six furlongs: 3-5-11 (14 ran-good to firm—5/1*-8/1-7/1) 5-3-1 (14 ran-good to firm—50/1-4/1**-4/1**) 1-14-11 (13 ran-good—7/2-16/1-11/10*) 6-5-7 (10 ran-good—13/2-12/1-33/1) 3-11-1 (12 ran-good to soft—9/2-14/1-11/1) 1-7-3 (10 ran-good to firm—13/8**-13/8**-7/1) 5-7-1 (10 ran-good to firm—7/1-9/1-5/1) 8-7-1 (13 ran-good to soft—6/1-11/4-7/4*) 1-2-4 (12 ran-good to firm—4/1*-9/1-16/1) 14-13-4 (14 ran-good to firm—20/1-20/1-8/1)

[Carl]

Re: Folkstone 10/04/08 3.15 Stamford Blue The rank outsider who's shown nothing since July last year but bare with me. Last years renewel the favourite didnt come anywhere.

Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR 1 Forest Dane 2 Mrs N Smith 7 8-7 James Doyle(3) 11/1 77 75 88+ 2 ¾ Lucayos 6 Mrs H Sweeting 4 8-9 Richard Kingscote(3) 6/1 79 75 87 3 ¾ Mujood 3 Eve Johnson Houghton 4 9-4 b Stephen Carson 10/1 85 79 91

and the year before that:

Draw TRAINER Age Wgt JOCKEY SP OR TS RPR 1 Idle Power (IRE) 5 J R Boyle 8 9-1 Amir Quinn(3) 16/1 85 82 98 2 3 Exmoor 3 R Charlton 4 8-10 Steve Drowne 6/1 77 64 81 3 shd Bird Over (GB) 9 R M Beckett 4 8-12 Nelson De Souza(3) 16/1 82 69 86

as you can see older horses have run well in this race so it could pay to stick with the 'more mature' runners. using the stats from the other post regarding stall positions also give SB another tick in his box for today. LTO I dont think he took to the AW after running well on the turf all this time so Im willing to forgive his last run 8 days ago on his season re-apperance. At the end of last season he ran a fair few races which might have caught up withhim and had little help from the handicapper also. But this time last year he ran consistantly well and Im willing to side with him today at what looks like a decent price of 20/1. Am I mad ? perhaps but I know Stamford Blue is better than the bare form figures.

[fintron]

Re: Folkstone 10/04/08 2.40 - Carl you say it could pay to look at those at the bottom of the card...i like the look of We Have a Dream (7/1 EW) who is suited to the ground, trip, has won at class and runs off a fair mark. Didn't set the world alight on its reappearance at Lingfield, latest, but is entitled to come on for that run. 3.15 - Dickie Le Davoir - I acknowledge the concerns above that this one may prefer an extra furlong, but it looks very well treated as Billy says as it has won off 90 in the past (rated 16 lbs lower for turf now) and does handle the ground. The selection has placed on each of its last seven starts on the AW so at 8/1 I think it could be worth an EW chance. 4.20 - Ruling Reef (5/1) - taken well to hurdles and won off 85 in that sphere LTO at Chepstow. Ground no problem and has won over this sort of trip in the past. The handicapper has given it every chance as it has won off 50 before and is 3 lbs lower today. I'm not a massive fan of Hayley Turner though, so I'm backing Forfeiter (10/1) in this one too. Forfeiter has also run a few good races over hurdles recently and has previous flat form on the going. 5.00 - Icannshift (7/2) - this is my bet of the day as it really loves it here at Folkestone. Its form here over its last six runs reads an impressive 122111, all over this trip. The handicapper has given him every chance as he is back down to a winning mark again today. His run on his seasonal reappearance at Warwick will have blown away a few cobwebs but can be safely ignored anyway given Icannshift's fantastic CD form.

[fintron]

Re: Folkstone 10/04/08 Icannshift has now been pulled out of the 5.00.... :wall

[billy the punter]

Re: Folkstone 10/04/08

3.15 Golden Desert is the paper jolly here and is deservedly fancied as he is fairly well treated. He won his last start off 84 but runs here off his turf rating which is 4lb lower. He has only managed to find the frame in one of his six turf starts however. Of those five unplaced turf runs, two came at odds of 33/1 or bigger and one was a close up 4th. It may be folly to say he is purely an A/W performer at this stage. Paul Cole is in great form, has had five winners from his last eleven runners and all his last six have won or been in the frame. His Andronikos would pick these up and carry them at his best but is winless in three years (24 starts). 10 of those starts however have come on the A/W (9 on the faster tracks) and that wouldn't have suited him, three of his four turf wins have come on soft or very soft. He has a couple of ok performances under his belt lately but on the whole has been disappointing since his last win. He has worn a tounge-tie most of his career and blinkers once recently, but he had no headgear at all for three of his four wins - he has no headgear today for the first time in a long while. He has been tried with it for a reason though, he is clearly quirky these days, but has dropped to a low mark and he will appreciate the give. Good jockey booking too, only De Souza and Quinny have ridden more winners for the stable in the past five seasons. Don Pele and Mujood have always run shockers on their seasonal debuts. Stamford Blue looks a little out of sorts, Hits Only Jude may find life tough off 80, especially on turf and Bonnie Prince Blue is too inconsistent to carry my money. Dickie Le Davoir is well in on past form and he has been running consistently of late, he's in good heart and could make this lowly mark pay, although it's a worry he hasn't picked up more races off this mark in his past few runs. He will like the going but in my opinion he is a better horse over 7f. Nobilissima ran some great races last season, she has ran above form when fresh and if she has improved over the winter she could easily figure here. All her best form is with give and Liam Jones is 1/1 on her. Stable's runners have been running well without winning. I'll be looking towards Andronikos, Nobilissima, and Golden Desert for my selection(s) in this race. I'm certain Andronikos will be a bet, but during writing I became unsure about the 2nd selection. Will post this as it is anyway and comfirm selection tomorrow. Andronikos Nobilissima Golden Desert

Andronikos 60% of stake 4/1 coral Nobilissima 25% of stake 6/1 hills Golden Desert 15% of stake 5.9 betfair

[mileni4uk]

Re: Folkstone 10/04/08 2.10 - Northern Tour Went in my notebook after last run. Nothing in the race has the class of this animal. Poor price, but should take it.

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Folkstone 10/04/08 Won a class 3 handicap on good to soft at Nottingham 11 months ago, off a mark of 90. Tried to scale the class ladder with 5 runs in class 2 handicaps, the last one being last September, trailing in 25th of 26 in the Ayr Silver Cup. Has had 12 or so races since, all on the AW, with 3 wins, 5 seconds and 3 thirds. Now has a mark of 74 on AW as well as droping to the same for Turfl, and that entitles him to run well for an each way bet.

[fintron]

Re: Folkstone 10/04/08

2.40 - Carl you say it could pay to look at those at the bottom of the card...i like the look of We Have a Dream (7/1 EW) who is suited to the ground, trip, has won at class and runs off a fair mark. Didn't set the world alight on its reappearance at Lingfield, latest, but is entitled to come on for that run.

:nana Backed into 9/2. Should have been priced up around 4/1 I thought. Shame Hayley messed up on Ruling Reef otherwise I would have had a nice double..

[billy the punter]

Re: Folkstone 10/04/08 Nice one Fintron. With the 3.40 Nobilissima ran a fine race, although I wasn't happy with the ride Andronikos got, he is a little awkward though and had a poor draw so I'll give Moore the benefit of the doubt - was never put in race however. Not going to write either off. All my negative horses were beaten (only Mujoo a layable price unfortunately) although I did say the winner was 'too inconsistent'. Didn't write him off on ability it's just you never know what you're going to get with him, would never enter my mind to back him, he was the fly in the oinment you could say. Mujood ran a fair race actually, he usually comes on for his debut massively. Dickie fluffed his lines at the start, his chance went then I think.

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: Folkstone 10/04/08

Won a class 3 handicap on good to soft at Nottingham 11 months ago' date=' off a mark of 90. Tried to scale the class ladder with 5 runs in class 2 handicaps, the last one being last September, trailing in 25th of 26 in the Ayr Silver Cup. Has had 12 or so races since, all on the AW, with 3 wins, 5 seconds and 3 thirds. Now has a mark of 74 on AW as well as droping to the same for Turfl, and that entitles him to run well for an each way bet.[/quote'] That was clever :lol :lol :lol I forgot to put the horses name on the post. It was Dickie Le Davoir, who missed the break :@ and never got into the race even though he ran on at the end.