BTP's Selections - Flat 2008

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Poor few days, I went 8 bets without a winner until Swallow Forest won today. Although it's hard it is so important to handle bad runs correctly. I don't panic, I just continue to plug away and wait for the turn. The key is not to have 'extra' chasing bets. These runs are inevitable, I'll probably have at least two a season. The important thing isn't the bad run, it's how you DEAL WITH IT. That's is what makes the difference come the end of the year. Thankfully stopped the haemoraging today and made a very small profit (level basically). Annoying that I took 4.6 about a 7.6 winner too. I would ignore this thread till I'm properly firing! ;) S/R: 31% (16/52) Collected bets (winners & E/W placed) S/R: 27% (14/52) Winners Staked: 53pts P/L: -19.46pts This is a tricky thread though, I chose to do a thread that included ALL my flat bets at level stakes, not easy with the volume I create. Maybe I should've allowed a slight increase of stakes on races I prefer (as I do with my own betting), or just created a thread on those specialist races. I may've bitten off more than I can chew. I will not alter things however and stick to my plan to get level and show a profit on the year. Ignore this, it's just for my own research: (Substituting all win and e/w bets as place ONLY bets: 65% winning bets S/R (34/52) 3.62pts profit. 71% (23/31) on last 19 selections)

[devil tish]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 interesting thread billy, i enjoy your posts, and i favour the races that you do as well. i have no doubt that this thread will turn a profit by the end of the season. keep it up m8:ok interesting to see things from a pro's point of view, picking up loads of good advice from your staking as well.

[TheRat]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008

interesting thread billy, i enjoy your posts, and i favour the races that you do as well. i have no doubt that this thread will turn a profit by the end of the season. keep it up m8:ok interesting to see things from a pro's point of view, picking up loads of good advice from your staking as well.

I would like to echo these sentiments Very interesting to read your posts, and im sure you will hit a sweet spot soon :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Cheers fellas, and Russ and others for the comments last week. :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 3.40 Merrymadcap is sure to be popular here, he usually runs in a higher grade (last two runs in Class6 were over 2 years ago, he won them both) and is 8lb lower on turf than he is on the A/W. I'm not sure this makes him well treated however as there is a simple reason for the difference in marks. He isn't as good on turf. Simple as. He has a 3% S/R (1/29) on grass but a 19% S/R (4/21) on dirt. It is the same with placed efforts; 21% (6/28) on grass opposed to 41% (7/17) on dirt. More importantly this isn't the first time he has run off a lower turf mark. In 2005 he failed to take advantage of a 4lb lower turf rating after running well on the A/W and in 2006 he failed to take advantage of a 7lb lower turf mark three times and later a 4lb lower mark. It happened again last a May once or twice here and he again failed to make his lenient turf mark pay. I'm not saying he cannot win, I'm saying he isn't as well in as it looks with the lower turf rating concept. That isn't reason enough for him to win. The above proves that. He clearly is inferior on turf, he may not be 8lb inferior but I'm taking him on at the price anyway. I'm not keen on the jockey booking either. Also, although he has run many times on the dirt, connections have never raced him at Southwell and his only flat win was on firm ground. Today's good to soft ground is another negative. Our Kes is another who runs off a lower rating as it's turf, for me it's a similar story. She has been unplaced 10 ten times from 12 turf starts and over 75% of her starts have been on the dirt. Also only 3 of her 49 career runs have been on an easy surface. Far from ideal here. Ryan's Future is sure to be favourite. He was subject of support LTO and only narrowly went down to Street Life. He will be popular again as he runs off just 56 here, was off 85 last October and shaped as if coming back to form LTO, although he may be flattered by that run, the leaders went off far too quick. Conditions ideal. April The Second was due to run in that race but she played up at the start and was withdrawn. He ran well on his handicap debut and could come on for that. Closely weighted with Ryan's Future on that run and could be value, his behaviour at the start will have to be monitored though. Gracechurch is another that has really come down the weights. However he hasn't shown a lot ater a 5 month break last summer. He is well handicapped on past form but I'd like to see him show a little more and imply he still has some ability, before I backed him, even off this low mark. Classic Blue is lightly raced, clearly hard to train, been off for 68 days again. He looks held by Mandalay Prince and is an unknown quantity on turf. 1lb out the handicap and being ridden by Paul Eddery are other concerns. Altos Reales is interesting, but is a bit quirky and probably wants a little further. Mandalay Prince is a horse that I've been waiting for. He is a horse I believe Willie Musson will win a flat handicap or two with this season. He ran a cracker last July to win a competitve Goodwood handicap on GS over this trip. He flopped NTO suffering with the lack of pace but then continued to disappoint on the A/W. He dropped down the weights a little and his form returned. He won well over 1m4f at Wolverhampton, although his head carriage was far from ideal. His run LTO can be totally ignored, he ran off a 8lb higher (same mark today), but there was no pace and he was ridden more prominently than ideal. His inexperinced rider lost her pitch, failed to get a run and got him going far too late - he ran on well beaten less than 3 lengths. Prince Rossie went off a million miles an hour LTO so hopefully pace won't be a problem today. If his attitude is ok (no headgear yet so yard must be happy), then he must surely win a race or two for his shrewd trainer this season. He may be better suited to 1m4f though. Stable trained Ryan Future's victor LTO. Cheomando left his old form behind LTO albeit in an amateur race. He could find a weak race soon. Mandalay Prince 75% of stake 8.2 betfair April The Second 15% of stake 14.5 betfair Ryans Future/Mandalay Prince 5% of stake RFC If April The Second plays up and is withdrawn again I'll have the saver on Ryan's. Will confirm prices when the market is formed, above are current prices but there isn't a lot of money around. Will update. Will probably have some further combos featuring the above, plus maybe Cheomando.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 4.10 Bugsys Boy is finally going the right way after showing some promise last season. He is unbeaten (2/2) in cheekpieces and unbeaten when tried above 2m (3/3). This is a woeful race and although he has gone up 7lb he's been winning with plenty in hand. Versatile with regards to tactics too. Bugsys Boy 100% of stake 2.9 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 7.20 Nice Wee Girl I've backed once or twice, she has some nice consistent form but has never actually looked like winning a race. She has a chance but I'm going to look elswhere to find a winner of this handicap. Lowry's Art deserves to be favourite, she ran a fair race to be 4th in an average nursey back end over C&D. She won a Warwick handicap on her debut this season - again it was only an average race but she runs here off a mark just 1lb higher that that Nusery run. It looks as though she has improved more than a pound over the winter and she has to be thereabouts. O'Neill and Johnson do well here (5/17) and they clicked with one of my favourite horses of last season, Evident Pride. She ran well on her debut (66/1) beaten just 5l behind Requisite, that maiden has worked out fairly well at the same level. She ran over C&D next, beaten 10l 4th of 7 but again the race worked out ok. The 2nd won NTO and the 3rd was norrowly touched off in that trappy Nottingham handicap at the start of the month. She was the subject of a gambe on her third start, she just missed out on the frame but again lost nothing in defeat. The winner came out and won well off 80 at Kempton on Saturday night. She has been given a sporting chance by the handicapper and is one of the few improvers in the field. Surely her time will come VERY soon. My only concern is the 7f, I'm not 100% sure it's her trip. Nothing else looks worthy of mention. Bye Baby Bunting 70% of stake 7 betfair Lowry's Art 30% of stake 7/2 hills Wouldn't even be surprised if they filled the front two places here, with Nice Wee Girl following.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 8.20 Boz was yet another money-spinning horse last season. Thankfully I found him quite early, too eastly actually, I had to put up with four losing bets before he won. He made up for it after however, with a five timer! I've backed him on every handicap run, I've only just realised that. He started off a mark of just 48 which was a mistake obviously, ended the season off 79. Each time it probably looked like his winning streak was at an end because he scraped home at times. That is just his style thought, he only ever does just enough. I have to follow him again this season as I believe there is more improvement in him. It's a match here but I was hoping Kings Ransom was a runner, he would've made it a true test and that would not have suited Sufari Sundowner, I'm not sure he'll stay here unless it's a crawl. Boz 100% of stake 2.76 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 uote:

Originally Posted by billy the punter 3.15 Golden Desert is the paper jolly here and is deservedly fancied as he is fairly well treated. He won his last start off 84 but runs here off his turf rating which is 4lb lower. He has only managed to find the frame in one of his six turf starts however. Of those five unplaced turf runs, two came at odds of 33/1 or bigger and one was a close up 4th. It may be folly to say he is purely an A/W performer at this stage. Paul Cole is in great form, has had five winners from his last eleven runners and all his last six have won or been in the frame. His Andronikos would pick these up and carry them at his best but is winless in three years (24 starts). 10 of those starts however have come on the A/W (9 on the faster tracks) and that wouldn't have suited him, three of his four turf wins have come on soft or very soft. He has a couple of ok performances under his belt lately but on the whole has been disappointing since his last win. He has worn a tounge-tie most of his career and blinkers once recently, but he had no headgear at all for three of his four wins - he has no headgear today for the first time in a long while. He has been tried with it for a reason though, he is clearly quirky these days, but has dropped to a low mark and he will appreciate the give. Good jockey booking too, only De Souza and Quinny have ridden more winners for the stable in the past five seasons. Don Pele and Mujood have always run shockers on their seasonal debuts. Stamford Blue looks a little out of sorts, Hits Only Jude may find life tough off 80, especially on turf and Bonnie Prince Blue is too inconsistent to carry my money. Dickie Le Davoir is well in on past form and he has been running consistently of late, he's in good heart and could make this lowly mark pay, although it's a worry he hasn't picked up more races off this mark in his past few runs. He will like the going but in my opinion he is a better horse over 7f. Nobilissima ran some great races last season, she has ran above form when fresh and if she has improved over the winter she could easily figure here. All her best form is with give and Liam Jones is 1/1 on her. Stable's runners have been running well without winning. I'll be looking towards Andronikos, Nobilissima, and Golden Desert for my selection(s) in this race. I'm certain Andronikos will be a bet, but during writing I became unsure about the 2nd selection. Will post this as it is anyway and comfirm selection tomorrow. Andronikos Nobilissima Golden Desert

Andronikos 60% of stake 4/1 coral Nobilissima 25% of stake 6/1 hills Golden Desert 15% of stake 5.9 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 8.20 Kempton I follwed Expensive Art last season and he is a horse I liked. I thought he was slung in on his handicap debut last year of 57 and despite having a fine season he starts this year only 11lb higher. He definetly imporved at least that much last year and I think he is still well handicapped with further improvement still in him. Give ideal conditions, trip, surface, jockey his figures are; 1st 2nd (caught another well handicapped type at the time) 1st 9th (was 33/1 in a listed race, had as much as 44lb to find with some and over 20lb to find with even the rags. Wasn't disgraced, beaten 4l) I'm certain that there is more to come this season. As always this time of year there is always the worry with fitness but his record when fresh reads 21. Will be equalling my biggest bet so far this year with this one. :hope He is sure to have paid his way with me come November. Expensive Art 100% stake 11/8 hills 8.50 Kempton Royal Dignitary is the pick at the weights and Dandy Nicholls has recently been succesful with similar types, both Fire Up The Band and Lucayan Dancer won claimers after being lowered in grade significantly. If he reproduces his York run on 23rd August he would be unbeatable here. He finished 4th that day in what was a useful Class 2 handicap. He gave the winner, the useful The Illies 9lb that day and the 2nd (Docofthebay) went on to finish 2nd in the Cambridgeshire. Decent yardsticks Fremen and Benandonner were just behind in 5th and 6th. He failed to show a similar level of form on two runs after though. Despite his inconsistency and poor run LTO he has A/W form and hasn't faced opponents this weak for some time. It looks a match with Teasing who is consistent at the level and running well. I'm going the other way to the RP and taking a chance on the class, especially as they have flip-flopped as favs. He should get his own way up front and Adrian should make this a real teast as Teasing has never won over this far. Royal Dignatory 100% of stake 3 betfair 9.20 Kempton W J Knight brought back a similar lay-off horse to success last week and his Power Ballad is sure to be fancied. His maiden form has worked out ok, and he goes well fresh, at the price though I want to take him on off 71. Miss Marauder was awarded a poor maiden but was fancied on her debut, she went off 6/4 from 2/1 so must've been showing something at home. She has been fairly treated by the handicapper (61) and it'll be interesting to see how she looked now upped in class. Montrachet is one I think can progress this year but he seems to want softer going. He is well down in class here though and Spencer is 35% for Bell over the past five seasons on the dirt. Miss Marauder 60% of stake 5.6 betfair Montrachet 40% of stake 5/1 lads/hills

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 It's always easier to do a summary after a winner! ;) 8 bets since the last one. Should've included Ryan's Future in the stake, Bugsys Boy (2nd) was inconvinienced by a jockey change. All those in the 3yo handicap at Kempton yesterday had no chance - we caught a tartar, the imressive winning backed from 8s to 9/2. Boz took it up and was beaten by rags, needing the run it seemed. Nobelissimi ran her race (2nd). Expensive Art was beat in a photo by another rag - compensation awaits. Royal Dignatory beat Teasing, which I thought would easily be enough, but he finished 2nd to Dushstoorm, who I didn't fancy at all. Thankfully had a 1-2 in the last at Kempton, a £30 F/C. Although the winner was knocked out from 5s to 8s in one hit as they were going in. :@ S/R: 28% (17/60) Collected bets (winners & E/W placed) S/R: 25% (15/60) Winners Staked: 61pts P/L: -24.1pts Ignore this, it's just for my own research: (Substituting all win and e/w bets as place ONLY bets: 65% winning bets S/R (39/60) 3.21pts profit.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 2.10 Doncaster I backed Bivouac LTO and I thought he was really unlucky. He didn't get a clear run on the turn after a leader weakened onto him. He acts on turf and despite a harsh 4lb rise (the handicapper obviously thinking the same about his last run) I'm backing him to gain compensation. The extra 1.5f will suit too and it looks as though the yard are coming into form. There is the obvious worry about this being an amateur race but at least we have one of the more experienced riders aboard. Bivouac 100% of stake 2.40 Doncaster A competitive affair with 9 of the 16 runners winning their last start. Suprising they go 2/1 the field here and I'll be looking for some value elsewhere. Clive Brittain's Khazina impressed me with her debut win. She was easy to back and running over an inadepqute trip, despite this see got up to beat a genuine 70 horse. Given the factors just mentioned and the fact that Clive's runners usually come on for the run, I think she can definitely pick a handicap up, her rating of 72 is fair. This is a tough handicap debut however and her future sucess may lie in an easier, her price here however is big enough for me to take a chance. Khazani 60% stake win 23 betfair Khazani 40% of stake place 4.5 betfair These are estimated prices, I'm pretty sure this is what I'll be taking, the win price is the current betfair price but there is little money available. Will amend if need be. 5.00 Doncaster This is a real interesting claimer where most of the field where decent in their day. Boundless Prospect is well in at the weights and although he may be flattered by his current mark he does have a good record at the level. His form in claimers and sellers in the past year reads 3311631. He goes well for kids, 40% of his wins have come when ridden by very inexperienced riders and Nicol Polli has ridden him to vicory twice. Has to be there off 8st6lb. Shot To Fame would canter up on the best of his form but is 9yo now and has proved very hard to win with late in his career. The stable do well when down grading horses to this level and former Group winners have a great record when dropped this low, no matter how long ago it was. He is up against it at the weights however based on his LTO with Boundless Prospect. I thought Alexander Guru was going to go on from his win FTO this season but he has disappointed since. Interesting at the level though and will be a price. Boundless Prospect 65% of stake Shot To Fame 25% of stake Alexander Guru 10% of stake 4.50 Musselburgh Unfortunately three of my 'notebook horses' line up in this race. They are Regal Parade, Cha Cha Cha, and Ansells Pride. This race must come from those, with the possible inclusion of Wovoka. Any heavy showers at Musselburgh could be pivotal and I'll be keeping an eye on the weather throughout the day. Regal Parade was a horse that I thought had more to give this year, so far this year I've said he was well handicapped and after he finished 3rd and the far side in the Spring Mile and was unlucky against Benandonner at Southwell he obviously is well in at present. I think it will suit him here over a mile and he must figure here, unfortunately the value is gone with him, we wanted him last time really. He is due to go up 6lb after today and his form does look a cut above. Cha Cha Cha is 2/2 around here and she ran well under a penalty LTO at Doncaster despite looking uneasy on the soft ground. She has been pretty consistent on turf in her short career and if she stays the mile that should continue here. Ansells Pride ran well on his seasonal debut and is another course winner. I never under estimate the benefit of being a course winner here. My horse suffered an injury here, although it's fairly flat the bend is vicous and doesn't suit all. He is lightly raced for a 5yo and should pick up a race or two this season. Course winner Wovoka is best of the rest, he is coming down to a winable mark. I'll have a four house combo in a hope to boost profits. Regal Parade 60% of stake Cha Cha Cha 20% of stake Ansells Pride 20% of stake 5.25 Musselburgh Alexander Hurricane is unbeaten at Wolverhampton this season, losing twice at Southwell. The key to him maybe ground, he clearly prefers a faster surface, no surprise being out of Danetime. It's been my opinion that he would improve for the transition to turf and I think he can pick up a sprint handicap or two over the season. Wouldn't be surprise if he bagged a decent prize. I'm hoping the rain stays away for him, he has a good draw and looks sure to make his presence felt. He has been backed on all of his starts so I'll be taking the best of the morning prices. Alexander Hurricane 100% of stake

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 8.50 I backed Gold Prospect as a saver in the Rosebery but I think he needed the run. I backed him on his two A/W starts last year and he ran well to finish 2nd (should've won) and 1st. He has disappointed four times on the turf and I think he may prefer the dirt. The race he finished 2nd in above was his handicap debut, he would've won that day with a better ride. He was off 77 that day and being as he was unlucky AND won since, you could say he is pretty well in here off just 79. His drop in the handicap is due to his poor turf runs, if I'm right about him prefering the dirt then he could be a snip. Jamie Spencer has a 35% S/R for the yard on the A/W. Only negative is the trip, he wants further ideally and there is unlikely to be much pace on. I'm hoping he has the class to overcome this. Golden Prospect 100% of stake 3 betfair 9.20 Kicking myself here because when I cast my eye over the card last night, I thought that Walter Swinburn's top weight Charmel's Lad was fairly well handicapped. When I've had my indepth look some time later I've found out that it has been heavily backed all day! :@ Missed the boat with the price but will still back him. He ran in some fair maidens last year and he wasn't beaten far in any of them. He ran ok on his debut and was 8/1 on his 2nd start. He finished 12/13 beaten 9l weakening rapidly over 7f. His next run was in a Leicester maiden and he went off 250/1. 250/1?!?! 8s to 250s in one race? And it was only a Leicester maiden after all. He ran ok, beaten 8l into 6th again weaking quickly over 7f. 250/1 was a ridiculous price, I can only assume the vibes were terrible for him that day, maybe he was out for his handicap mark, or perhaps it was expected he'd find the 7f too far? Sumising I know, but you have look for the clues don't you? Today's trip is 5f, his style and the fact he is out of Compton Place tells me he should prefer the drop. It isn't a great race, the consisten maiden Nice Wee Girl is joint top weight and if this has been plotted up he should have no problem. Nice Wee Girl is solid, she will cope with the trip I think and if the jolly fails then her solid form will come into play. She goes up 2lb after this race. Admirals Way will appreciate the return to a faster surface. He disappointed LTO at Southwell, although he finished 4th and the race has worked out well so far. He ran his best race on the fast dirt and I think he will win a dirt sprint handicap at Kempton/Wolverhampton/Lingfield this year. Will have combos as I have combo units to play with after this afteroon! Charmel's Lad 65% of stake 11/4 coral Nice Wee Girl 20% of stake 7 betfair Admirals Way 15% of stake 10.5 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 The turf season is now three weeks in and hopefully things will start to get a little easier. 10 of my last 11 bets have ran to form, a few actually got their head in front! ;) As for todays, Bivouac ran a cracker, 2nd at 7/1. He caught a live one with the well-in if fit Blue Spinnaker (double figures down to 9/4) but was well clear of the third. If he doesn't get penalised for this he must win soon. Khazani ran poor, I know she was up against but she was tailed, perhaps the race come too soon, perhaps the going was too soft? No idea. The non-runners totally messed up staking for the claimer. In my actual betting I dropped out Shot To Fame and went 90% on Boundless Prospect. He won well, too good for this level. Got the T/C (82/1) up in the good handicap at Musselburgh, would've prefered the 2nd winning, and am still annoyed those three had to meet, they could've all won three different races off the mark they each ran off today. Alexander Hurricane ran a blinder, hated the rain softened ground, hardly picking his feet up in the last - one to follow. Gold Prospect showed his class once again on the dirt and my saver Nice Wee Girl made me a small profit in the last. Wouldn't right off Charmels Lad though, finished well, wins over 6f soon. Four winners and two 2nd's from seven bets. Only a tiny profit on this thread, a good day for me financially, had the T/C up as mentioned, had more on Boundless and less on Alexander. S/R: 31% (21/67) Collected bets (winners & E/W placed) S/R: 28% (19/67) Winners Staked: 68pts P/L: -23.95pts Ignore this, it's just for my own research: (Substituting all win and e/w bets as place ONLY bets: 66% winning bets S/R (44/67) 5.16pts profit.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 3.20 Easter Stakes Although sometimes referred to as a classic trial, it’s an opinion that is very misleading. It has never been any use with regard to clues for Newmarket, many forgotten horses have won this, and only two winners have been placed in the Guineas in twenty years. This has been stressed further still over the past couple of years – since the race has been run on the A/W. I really don’t know what purpose a race on A/W around a bend serves when used as a trial for a straight mile on turf. I’m not saying trials are all important when it comes to the classics but at least some have relevance, Lingfield to Epsom, a prime example. Ok, so we’re not going to see the Guineas winner here but let’s see if we can decipher the winner of this at least.

Richard Hannon has won this six times from the last fifteen in which he has had a runner. 73% of those fifteen Hannon runners have finished 1-2-3 (11/15), and 93% (14/15) of all Hannon runners have taken home prize money – the only one to fail was 14/1.

He clearly likes this race and obviously his runners in this have to be respected. Trend qualifiers: Eastern Gift, Latin Lad

From the last sixteen runnings of this, of all those that ran at two, 93% (14/15) ran at least three times as a 2yo. Over half the winners ran at least five times as a juvenile, quite unusual for a trial winner.

Trend qualifiers: Eastern Gift, Fool’s Wildcat, Gaspar Van Wittel, Geezers Colours, ll Warrd, Last Of The Line, Latin Lad

It’s usually won by those who just get the mile. Hardly any go on to win over much further. Some go back to sprinting. Interestingly only 6% of the last 16 winners had already won over a mile (1/16).

So we’re looking for someone trying the mile for the first time, but perhaps likely that the trip would be its optimum.

Trend Qualifiers: Eastern Gift, Fool’s Wildcat, Gaspar Van Wittel, Geezers Colours, Il Warrd, Latin Lad, Speedy Dollar

Strangely though in the past 12 years no winner has been sprint bred; the lowest breeding index* has been 7.8f and 83% (10/12) have had an B.I. of 8.5f+

Understandably no winner has been middle distance/staying bred; the highest B.I. has been 9.9f and 75% (9/12) have had a B.I. of under 9.6f. Basically you’re looking for bang on miler when it comes down to breeding. All the last twelve winners had a B.I. between 7.8f and 9.9f.

Trend qualifiers: Eastern Gift, Gaspar Van Wittel, Geezers Colours, Last Of The Line

93% (14/15) of those winners that run at 2yo, lost on their final start. The winner is usually a horse dropping down in class, losing in what is seen as a better race on his final 2yo start. 9 of those 14 horses that lost their final 2yo did lose in a race of better class than this.

Trend qualifiers: Fool’s Wildcat, Gaspar Van Wittel, Il Warrd, Latin Lad. Less so – Eastern Gift, Last Of The Line.

The highest rated are Latin Lad and Gaspar Van Wittel and that is fair, they look the form picks. Latin Lad wanted a mile at least at two, and out of Henando will surely improve for further that that trip this term (entered in The Derby). His form is solid but this trip may be a little on the sharp side. He will no doubt be in the money but may be vulnerable to a pacey finisher.

Gaspar Van Wittel impressed on his first two starts, destroying poor fields with a sharp turn of foot. He was upped in grade for his third start but flopped in the July Stakes. He finished a well-beaten 9^th of 13 there, although would’ve probably finished around 6^th with a clear run. That race worked out really well producing three future Group winners and the 200k Doncaster Sales race winner.

He was upped to 7f next time up and he ran a solid race to finish 7l and sh 3^rd to Ravens Pass and City Affair. He was dropped back to 6f for his final start in the valuable Tattersalls race at Newmarket, he gave weight to most and stayed on well to finish 6^th, showing that he now needs further than that 6f. He has the ideal profile, a busy 2yo campaign, has been campaigning in a higher class and trying the mile for the first time – if he gets the trip then he would take all the beating.

Last Of The Line has 25lb to find on official ratings and looks up against it.

Geezers Colours has been running well but he is in the handicapper’s grip now, maybe that is why connections are going down this route. He is having his 4^th start of the season which is far from ideal, and was running in claimers in November. Exposed and out of his depth.

Hannon’s other runner Eastern Gift comes out best with regards to the trends but has been abandoned by Richard Hughes, who won on him at two, in favour of Latin Lad. He looks to have a bit to find on marks and form at first glance but if you put a line through his last two starts, which I am due to going at Ascot and tactics at Lingfield, then he comes into the equation. He is closely weighted with Gaspar Van Wittel on the Tattersall run at Newmarket and shouldn’t be written off as a second string no hoper.

Fool’s Wildcat, a 100k 2yo purchase, left his old form behind when benefiting from a change of tactics and a pair of blinkers on his 4^th start. He won that maiden by 4l and then wasn’t disgraced when upped in class to a Group 3 on his final start, although did look a horse a little out of depth. He finished close to Eastern Gift on his 2^nd start without blinkers so could reverse that form. He is sprint bred though and the chances of staying this mile is taken on trust. He could get his own way in front though. He may just be outside this class though, he is also entered in a Brighton handicap the following day which is worrying.

Il Warrd’s final 2yo run in the Veuve Cliquot can be ignored. He was given no cover and he failed to settle. The jockey had no choice but to give him his head but he paid the price in the final two furlongs finishing 15l behind the winner. He was an impressive winner at Ascot before that but he took advantage of track bias there and that form has be treated with concern. The stable usually starts firing later in the year and although he is apparently their best 2yo, there are too many question marks about him and his form to back him here.

Speedy Dollar’s maiden form is nothing special and he would have had to improve significantly from two to three to figure here. We've no idea about prices yet, so I'm attempting to estimate the tissue, just for fun, will probably get it terribly wrong. Feel free to do the same if you've been working on the race. Latin Lad 9/4 Gaspar Van Wittel 9/4 Il Warrd 4/1 Speed Dollar 8/1 Eastern Gift 8/1 Fool's Wildcat 10/1 Geezers Colours 14/1 Last Of The Line 25/1 Will confirm selection but I'm 99.9% sure my bet will be backing Gaspar Van Wittel and save on Eastern Gift.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Confirmation of selection for the 3.20; Gaspar Van Wittel 70% of stake 5.3 betfair Eastern Gift 20% of stake 13 betfair Fool's Wildcat 10% of stake 13 betfair I may end up kicking myself for leaving Latin Lad out being as he is solid and trained my Hannon, hope I haven't been too clever in my reasoning with him (breeding/trip). Can't back them all though. 2.10 On the book I believe that Heaven Sent, Cosmodrome, and Once Upon A Grace are clear of their rivals. Heaven Sent has run up to her best when fresh so there is no worry with her in that respect, however there is no guarantee with the the other two. Both won early last year on their debut but Boz (Cosodrome's stablemate) needed the run in the week and Diamond Tycoon, who had a similar profile to his stablemate Once Upon A Grace flopped badly for Meehan on his seasonal debut here earlier this season. His runners have been very 'in and out'. Once Up A Grace is the most interesting in the field. She won her maiden when trained in Ireland and then run a cracker on her 2nd start to finish a close up 5th to Arch Swing in a Group 3. That was an above average Group 3 and this run came less than a fortnight after her debut. Not bad a for a 6 grand 2yo purchase. She wasn't seen after though and has changed stables. If she retains any ability she could be interesting this year, but maybe difficult to place. She is out of Spinning World and his progeny have been doing well on the A/W recently. I think there will be more to come from Cosmodrome this term, she won her first two starts before finding the classic fillies too strong in the Ribblesdale. Her listen win 2TO doesn't read that well now and she probably was out of her depth in Group 2 Ribblesdale run - she ran to her form maybe. I think she'll be better this term and it wouldn't surprised if she stepped up to be Group 2/3 class this season. A big worry is the trip, I'm sure she needs 1m2f to be at her best. Obviously it is going to be hard to beat Heaven Sent. She has only had 15 runs despite being a 5yo and although she wouldn't need to improve to take this, she may be your typical older horse improver for Stoute. There has been excuses for her poorer runs and when conditions are favourable (1m on ground better than soft) her figures are consistent (1312323). She looks to be improving with everyone of those runs too. With the question marks around the former two this could be penalty kick for Heaven Sent. I thought about playing F/C's for this race, however I'm going to take a chance with Cosmodrome and OUAG, playing E/W as I believe that even with the negatives they should beat the remainder of the field home. Cosmodrome 25% of stake E/W Once Upon A Grace 25% of stake E/W 8/1 power 2.45 Kay Es Jay beat the 2nd fav Love Of Dubai on their final 2yo start and I see no evidence as to why there should be a reversal in form. Kay Es Jay is clear form pick and would be giving many of these chunks of weight were it a handicap. She was highly tried at two and come up against possibly the best four fillies in training, for her age group. She was 4.75l 5th to Guineas fav Muthabara, well behind Proviso and Listen but then run 3l 5th to Kitty Matcham on her final start, the Rockfel. In between she was beaten under 4l in a Nursery when giving 14lb+ to 17 of her rivals - no easy task for any 2yo filly. This is one of her easiest tasks to date, was campaigned here early last year (1 win) and the stable are flying. Kay Es Jay 100% of stake 4.6 betfair 4.30 Cape Hawk's 2nd to Lucarno and win beating Malt Or Mash read very well now, as does his 1l 4th in the London Mile Final here in September. Hasn't been seen since and lightly raced for his age (especially for a Hannon horse) so he is obviously hard to keep right or had problems. He is 2/4 here, the two defeats were 2nd to Lucarno (an impossible task) and a close up 4th of 15 mentioned above. Obvious claims if all is well. Nice To Know was 7/4 fav to beat Zaahid when trained by Ed Dunlop early last season. She was picked up for just 15k soon after by Gary Moore and won on her first two starts for her new yard. Ran well on her final start off this mark, her only A/W run. She was given a lot to do, running on well to finish 1l behind Bussel. Interesting here with Ryan Moore booked. Pendulum Star is rated 79 and seeing as she finished close to Graduation and Cliche on her first two starts she isn't badly handicapped. Her final two starts were on the dirt and she ran two solid races. Beating a good field in her first handicap then went close on her last run despite pulling early. The stable is flying although she has a tounge-tie here for the fist time which is slightly worrying. Pendulum Star 55% of stake Nice To Know 20% of stake Cape Hawk 25% of stake

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 3.05 Obviously a competitive affair but I Bond City is currently over priced. Winless since 2006 (then with Bryan Smart) but had a string of consistent place efforts to his name last season including a fantastic 3rd in a Group 3. From 14 starts he only had one really bad run, which was over a too far 6f. Despite some sterling efforts last year he starts the season on 94, 9lb lower than this time last year and has only raced off a lower mark once before from 48 career starts. He has never been out of the frame on a seasonal debut (3rd, 2nd (50/1), and 2nd) always running above form. The last two seasonal debuts were very close to his best form of the season. He disappointed slightly with pieces on back end, and they are off here, which is a good sign. He has a plum draw and acts with ease. It may be the right time to catch him. Think Bigalos Bandit will win a race this year but he suffered an injury last year and may need this. Bond City 50% of stake win 9.6 betfair 45 % of stake place 3.05 betfair Bigalos Bandit 5% of stake win 32 betfair 4.10 I think there are a host of horses fairly well handicapped here, Varadouro, Kenmore, Swinbrook, King's Bastion have all run off better marks and the former three all look to me coming back into form. The latter's connections have done well lately. Would have to lay close to odds on if I wanted to cover all four and I'm not prepared to do that, so no bet.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 9.20 Supporting Role looks fairly solid. His run LTO looks good with the winner following up NTO. This is his trip and his rivals would need to improve to beat him. He was fav that day despite having formlines of 087. He must've been showing more at home and connections obviously thought he was fairly treated - he is off the same mark today. Jeremy Noseda had a winner today and has the 2nd fav Art Exhibition. This race is lacking in quality so anything from a powerful stable will be fancied and should be respected. I'm just not convinced this is his trip. He has shown nothing in three maidens so far over 5,6 and 8f and doesn't look as though he will improve for the trip. He is out of a sprinter, as is his dam who only ever raced at 6/7f. I think he'll need to be in a horse box to stay 10f. I've had some negatives about horse on here in the past and thankfully none have gone on to win (I didn't fancy Il Warrd today granted, but that was more a case of not having enough info to back him at t his stage). But I'm willing to lay this at 10/3 and 4/5 out the frame (betfair). It's a big step up in trip for Zaplamation and his 5th LTO isn't working out well. Same can be said about Chanteuse De Rue who has been weakening over a mile and is another who can't be back at the trip on what he has shown. You would need a crystal ball to say with confidence that Art Exhibition, Zaplamation or Chanteuse De Rue will stay. With the negatives I have regarding most of the runners it wouldn't be a surprised if likely improvers Thankuforthemusic and Arniecoco made their presence felt. Both want this trip and there wasn't much between them when they met LTO. Thankuforthemusic's maiden form is the best on offer (no shocker, that is why he is top rated) and his third in the claimer reads ok. The jockey has a 27% S/R on the dirt for the yard (44% with 3yos). Sure to improve for the switch to handicaps and is fair value in a weak race. Will have the usual combos with Supporting Role, Thankuforthemusic, and Arniecoco. Supporting Role 60% of stake 3.2 betfair Thankuforthemusic 40% of stake 10.5 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 usual write-ups. 3.15 Alarazi ran well in the Irish Lincoln, I fancied her without selected in that and she was finishing well. Sure to appreciate trip and going Alarazi 100% of stake 7/2 skybet (just dug out my account number!) 3.45 Lazare - fairly handicapped on pieces of form, won't go into which. Is a joke price. Impossible Dream - looks like he is going the write way. Bravely - coming down the weights after getting harshly treated for running behind US Ranger, not sure about trip though. Lazare - 30% of stake 70 at betfair but will try and get on later Impossible Dream 40% of stake 11/1 hills Bravely - 30% of stake 14/1 power

[stewartd14]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Some cracking write ups there mate, hope the winners start coming for ya :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008

Some cracking write ups there mate, hope the winners start coming for ya :ok

Thank you stewart. Me too! Although I'm happy all the time my selections are running well. With the losers I've been pretty close at times and my race reading usually isn't far away (I hope anyone that reads this thread feels the same;)). Not only does it giving ample opportunities to trade in running, hopefully it means the winners will start appearing more requently too. Five 2nds since yesterday, four traded shorter in running, if it was the pre-exchange days I would be crying into my horlicks now! ;)

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Absolutely fantastic write up mate. :ok A great read, veyr informative and gives great ideas for us novices. Keep up the good work.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 3.30 Trans Siberian’s debut run here worked out well so it was no surprise he was successful on his 2^nd start. He was a bit of a baby last year and with improvement expected he should find a race or two this season. Paul Cole is bang in form, 8 winners and 4 placed in his last 16 runners.

I didn’t think Novikov was particularly well handicapped after his maiden runs last season but he ran two solid races in his two handicap starts. He has been gelded over the winter, which should improve him, and I think he prefers this mile trip. Failed to stay 10f on his final start.

Twilight Star won a small maiden for Godolphin last season before changing hands for just 18,000gns in the winter. That to me was a bit of a negative as he cost 280,000gns at one stage. I know Godolphin don’t persevere with lesser types but his did seem very cheap. With that in mind I decided he was best watched FTO this year but he ran a cracker. He missed the break and didn’t get the best of runs up the inner at Lingfield. He looked like he’d come on for the run and he went in my notebook. Hopefully that run can be trusted and he has retained some ability. If it isn’t the case then he would need an ease in the weights obviously.

I thought Look So was going to go on after her early season form last year but for some reason it didn’t happen. She is really well handicapped on her that early form and if she reproduces that this time round then she’ll go close. That’s a big if though as is the ability to stay this trip. Big price though. Trans Siberian 40% of stake 6/1 SJ/direct Novikov 30% of stake Twilight Star 20% of stake 9/1 lads/fred Look So 10% of stake 16/1 lads/fred

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 2.50 I’ve backed Punching in his last two selling starts and said on more than one occasion that he can win a seller no question. He has run well in both those races and for once he is well in at the weights. This seems to be a weaker seller than those last two and I said in the past that this track will suit his style more than Lingfield would. I would be having a max bet if this was over 6f but I think he has the toe to take this despite the minimum trip. There are some real inexperienced jocks in this race and Jamie Spencer should be able to get things his own way. Punching 100% of stake

3.20 Despite still being a maiden Cap St Jean has been really consistent. He has found the frame 7 times from 10 handicap starts (100% here), although his consistency hasn’t helped matters, he has crept up the handicap steadily. He was dropped to 7f LTO and he ran well in 2^nd, the winner won NTO. He ran well over 6f in his maidens and there is a bit of toe on the dam side. This could be his trip. This isn’t a great race and it may be his day. Cap St Jean 50% of stake E/W

[RussP]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008

3.30 Trans Siberian’s debut run here worked out well so it was no surprise he was successful on his 2^nd start. He was a bit of a baby last year and with improvement expected he should find a race or two this season. Paul Cole is bang in form, 8 winners and 4 placed in his last 16 runners.

I didn’t think Novikov was particularly well handicapped after his maiden runs last season but he ran two solid races in his two handicap starts. He has been gelded over the winter, which should improve him, and I think he prefers this mile trip. Failed to stay 10f on his final start.

Twilight Star won a small maiden for Godolphin last season before changing hands for just 18,000gns in the winter. That to me was a bit of a negative as he cost 280,000gns at one stage. I know Godolphin don’t persevere with lesser types but his did seem very cheap. With that in mind I decided he was best watched FTO this year but he ran a cracker. He missed the break and didn’t get the best of runs up the inner at Lingfield. He looked like he’d come on for the run and he went in my notebook. Hopefully that run can be trusted and he has retained some ability. If it isn’t the case then he would need an ease in the weights obviously.

I thought Look So was going to go on after her early season form last year but for some reason it didn’t happen. She is really well handicapped on her that early form and if she reproduces that this time round then she’ll go close. That’s a big if though as is the ability to stay this trip. Big price though. Trans Siberian 40% of stake 6/1 SJ/direct Novikov 30% of stake Twilight Star 20% of stake 9/1 lads/fred Look So 10% of stake 16/1 lads/fred

Brilliant mate, absolutely fcuking awesome:clap Hope you had the £116 Exacta too;) Great write up as per usual, those winners are starting to come now.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Thanks mate, we were hopeful that the turf would start happening now wasn't we? Lets hope it's all systems go now. Yeah I had a cheeky exacta ;).

[mileni4uk]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Blimey, you can try to do an exacta of a whole race sometimes :loon

[stewartd14]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008

3.30 Trans Siberian’s debut run here worked out well so it was no surprise he was successful on his 2^nd start. He was a bit of a baby last year and with improvement expected he should find a race or two this season. Paul Cole is bang in form, 8 winners and 4 placed in his last 16 runners.

I didn’t think Novikov was particularly well handicapped after his maiden runs last season but he ran two solid races in his two handicap starts. He has been gelded over the winter, which should improve him, and I think he prefers this mile trip. Failed to stay 10f on his final start.

Twilight Star won a small maiden for Godolphin last season before changing hands for just 18,000gns in the winter. That to me was a bit of a negative as he cost 280,000gns at one stage. I know Godolphin don’t persevere with lesser types but his did seem very cheap. With that in mind I decided he was best watched FTO this year but he ran a cracker. He missed the break and didn’t get the best of runs up the inner at Lingfield. He looked like he’d come on for the run and he went in my notebook. Hopefully that run can be trusted and he has retained some ability. If it isn’t the case then he would need an ease in the weights obviously.

I thought Look So was going to go on after her early season form last year but for some reason it didn’t happen. She is really well handicapped on her that early form and if she reproduces that this time round then she’ll go close. That’s a big if though as is the ability to stay this trip. Big price though. Trans Siberian 40% of stake 6/1 SJ/direct Novikov 30% of stake Twilight Star 20% of stake 9/1 lads/fred Look So 10% of stake 16/1 lads/fred

. :clap:clap:clap Absolutely exceptional mate. Quoted your post in the Windsor thread saying unlucky as never realised you had the winner as well. :loon :notworthy:notworthy :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 2.50 Nottingham You make a good case Russ, as ever. And I agree with you, Desert Opal has a real chance and is over priced. David Barker's sprinters have started the season well and his Dorn Dancer looks fairly solid also. She is close to a career low mark, although that has been the case for around a year now. In that time though she has been consistent, her only below par runs coming over a trip too far. Most of her running has been done over 6f and the RP seems to think that is her best trip. I'm not convinced of that however, she won at Chester and Musselburgh over 5f, and you need proper toe to do that. Half her wins have come over 5f in fact. Her life-time form over 5f on easy ground is as follows; 3/13 4/12 4/21 2/18 1/9 4/15 5/16 Not a bad run, and she always finishes up the field. Her win ratio isn't great but she'll run her usual race I would imagine. It's a tentative selection and based on the above I will be having a top heavy place bet on her. Think she is value to get a place, my bet shows evens if the win bet loses, it will be an added bonus if she does win. Dorn Dancer 80% of stake place 2.5 betfair 20% of stake win 7 betfair These are the current prices and I hope to get average out at around thsoe prices once the market gets livelier.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Summary as of 15th April am. 2nd in the Easter Stakes, ran into Il Warrd clearly improving from 2 to 3. Kay Es Jay and Cosmodrome were disappointing. Once Up A Grace refused to enter the stalls. A 1-2 with Cape Hawk and Nice To Know, but the price of the winner was shorter than expected. The main bet of the race Pendulum Star got no run, run ignored. The ground went too soft for Bond City. Two 2nds at the Curragh on Sunday, one very unlucky, was beaten a head at 11/1. Punching and Cap St Jean was poor today but Looks So made a profit, just beating the main bet though Trans Siberian. S/R: 29% (23/78) Collected bets (winners & E/W placed) S/R: 27% (21/78) Winners Staked: 78.5pts P/L: -32.03pts Ignore this, it's just for my own research: (Substituting all win and e/w bets as place ONLY bets: 63% winning bets S/R (49/78) 2.96pts profit.