BTP's Selections - Flat 2008

[billy the punter]

I know I've only been here a shit and a shave, but if no one objects to me clogging up the board then I'm going to start my own thread for the 2008 Flat Season. Obviously I keep quite detailed records of all my bets (results/profits/race types etc) but it would be nice to keep a record of reasonings too as I'm always looking to eradicate errors. As with a lot of my punting, all selections will be based on level stakes. However for years my speciality has been A/W claimers/sellers and the big valuable turf handicaps - The Lincoln, Royal Hunt Cup, Cambridgeshire etc. So personally I usually up stakes for those races. ALL flat selections will be posted on this thread and will be for a 1pt stake. The one point will sometimes be proportioned to more than one selection in a race. Since the flat began everything I've backed myself has been posted on PL, and that will continue to be the case where possible. Although it's irrelevent for this thread I do actually save in running a hell of a lot. I'll always save my stake and lay off in running, usually settling for 80/90% of my projected profit. I've done my figures and this works for me. In fact trading and in-running betting, sometimes without prior opinion, makes up a big slice of my yearly winnings.

[RussP]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Good luck with this BTP. I'm really looking forward to reading your opinions and see this thread in profit, you certainly have made a cracking start in ATR (especially the 1-2-3-4 in the Spring Mile). I'll be watching with great interest.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Cheers Russ. And likewise with your own thread (and others ). I always want to read different opinions and theories. You snooze you lose at this game.

[doodlebug]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 I look forward to the thread too. I've been lurking about on this site for some time and it's about time I announced my presence. So, good luck to you. I didn't see your predictions for the spring mile but if you got the 1-2-3-4 that's some picking first up at the end of March. I watch with some interest.

[bowles10]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Billy, Good luck with this how about posting in the the sticky "who are we" thread at some point also as it would be good to know your background etc:ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008

Billy, Good luck with this how about posting in the the sticky "who are we" thread at some point also as it would be good to know your background etc:ok

Blimey, you're good bowlesy! I've just done it this minute - spooky :eek Thanks all.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Just a quick re-cap on what I've done so far 22nd March Doncaster 2.50 For once the Spring Mile looks more interesting than the Lincoln itself, obviously due to the fancied Lincoln runners missing the cut and having to 'make do' with the consolation race. It looks like it's going to my first bet in the race since 2000. Let's hope it'll go to form for the first time since then too (well go to form as I see it anyway!).

We're going to have to guess a little with regards to the draw, I know the Brocklesby is run prior but 2-y-o races can be misleading in such matters.

As stated by bowles the last eight running here have seen winners drawn 1,19,10,1,3,4,19,8.

Going further, if I assign a third of each field to either 'low', 'middle' or 'high' drawn over those eight runnings, 83% of horse finishing in the first five were drawn 'low' or 'high'. The percentage call is obviously to go with those drawn high or low.

On that basis out go Minority Report, Samarinda, Capable Guest, Dream Lodge, Pelican Waters, Heywood, Lap Of Honour taking their middle draws with them.

Trip, track, going, field size, age, basic form put pay to all bar

Zaahid(21), Don't Panic(17), Plum Pudding(18), Benandonner(1), Trafalgar Square(2) in my opinion and that is my initial short list of five.

Plum Pudding who last won for today's jockey has some cracking form over straight miles and ran a blinder in the Lincoln dirt trial. However, has run some shockers on easy ground and with more rain forecast he is the first off my short list.

Connections seemed to get to the bottom of Don't Panic by the end of the season after disappointing after his maiden win. He is two from two when held up over a mile and will act if it gets softer. It's just a worry that I'm basing his chances on just one run really, his last - just don't know how flattered he was that day.

Benandonner is a horse I like, very genuine, has found the frame in 11 of his 17 handicap runs so far in his career. Ran a blinder first time up last season and does act on softer ground. He isn’t particularly well handicapped and a straight mile probably wouldn’t suit his style but is huge price.

Trafalgar Square was set to run in this last year but he injured himself at home, he did win on his belated appearance beating Fajr, a result that looked very good come the end of the season. Not totally disgraced in the Hunt Cup after moving centre from his high draw and acts with give. Could also be overpriced.

Zaahid is a shocking price but I just can't rule him out - despite trying. I just keep coming back to him. He hasn't been harshly treated on what his done (perhaps unlike Don't Panic). Should get a nice lead on the stands side and I have to have in on my side. I think I can get away with backing four if I stake correctly, I'm happy with the projected profit. Zaahid 4 - 60% of stake Don't Panic 9.4 -25% of stake Benandonner 23 -5% of stake Trafalgar Square 21 -10% of stake Actually given the fact that nearly ALL placed horses are usually drawn well I may mess about with a few combos from my original shortlist. It is the first day of the flat after all, got to have some fun! 4.00 Can't help thinking that the shine has been taken off the Lincoln this year and I don't recall a time I've had this small an opinion. It's the first time I'm not clutching an ante-post voucher anyway. Reckon I may've dug up some value though.

Like bowles has said above and like I have done with the Spring Mile I'm discounting middle drawn horses. 7/8 were drawn high or low, the only exception being Stream Of Gold - and let's be honest, he don't count. The biggest certainty in Lincoln history would've won with a pair of wellingtons on, let alone a middle draw.

I'm having three on my side at level stakes.

Rio Riva, boring I know, but it's so solid. Draw, race-type form and going. I reckon it could be close to favourite come the off.

Annemasse is just a horse I think can do well this year and is over priced. Run ok in the Britannia and Cambridgeshire last year and really well weighted with the shorter priced Vitznau.

Raptor is my pick from the other side of the course. Ran a blinder to finish

4th last year and ran better than the form line suggests in the Cambridgeshire - third of those who kept stands side. Those were his only two runs over straight miles in this country and he clearly like this sort of race. Loves cut too. Although I'm not Fergus Sweeny's greatest fan, prove me wrong son.

Rio Riva 11.5

Annesmasse 28

Raptor 24

5.10 I’ve watched with interest every one of Intersky Charm’s race this year and I’m certain there is more to come from him. Slaughtered the field on his seasonal debut over a mile at Southwell, a race that has worked out fairly well. The 2^nd won twice after, the 3^rd hasn’t been seen, the 4^th (btn 17l) has won, and even the 6^th (btn 26l) was only just touched off this week at Southwell. 7f was too short on his next start but ran well over a mile again on his last outing despite a shocking ride from Dean McKeown. I know what you’re thinking, Dean McKeown? Bad ride? Surely some mistake, but I promise you old Dean had a ‘mare. (yes I AM being sarcastic!) He lost his posi early and got his mount outpaced, he ran on well making up a lot of lengths to finish 2^nd. I think it’s time he was tried again at 1m2f (ran twice over in maidens) and I’m taking a chance here despite it being a competitive affair as he is a massive price. I’m certain he will pay his way this season.

Intersky Charm win market 44 place market 8 Wolverhampton

8.50 Underworld

A lot of forum members were in agreement after seeing Underworld win on his debut, he got a few mentions in the A/W horses to follow thread.

He bolted up first time out, not only was there two 70 rated horses well beaten, the 3^rd Baunagain come out and won his maiden 6l, him too beating a 70 horse by some way. The 2^nd Brave Hawk was mugged the other day off 69 (tenderly ridden infront) and is a cert off his current mark. With all this taken into account Mark Johnston must be over the moon with Underworld allotted mark of 77, he MUST figure off this lenient mark. This could be a 90 horse before very long.

Results 2.50 winner +1.35pts 4.00 loser -1pt 5.10 loser -1pt 8.50 winner +0.57pts S/R: 50% (2/4) Staked: 4pts P/L: -0.08pts

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 23rd March 4.50 Musselburgh Gold Cup

Good prize money for this event so nice to see a good turn out. The start of the turf can be a little tricky with regards to selection's fitness, as we all know. You're usually ok with the bigger handicaps, the Lincoln and the like, as most are laid out and trained with that race in mind, most will 100% fit or close to. Obviously you have to a little wary when looking at your 'average race'. However, this race has great prize money for a 0-85 event and horses may've been laid out or at least trained recently with this in mind. Also, as this is a 2m event there are some of the field that are fit from hurdling, and of course there are a few A/W horses too. With all this taken into account fitness may not be as big a worry as it might be for this event and it could be a race worth looking into. I am anyway!

Souffleur is going to be favourite. This is based on his hurdle form this season, although he was no slouch when last seen on the flat in 2006 for Michael Bell, where he was 211 on his favoured easy ground, his only other too flat runs were poor ones on fast ground. He starts this flat season 4lb higher than was when last seen in 2006, however according to the handicapper he improved 42lb over hurdles this winter. His hurdle form this season was impressive, he won twice at Aintree after winning his novice hurdle and then finished a close third to Cheltenham winner Nenuphar Collonges, giving the winner 7lb - this was despite faster than ideal ground and only an average ride. Won a poor Grade 1 next but then ran poorly on his last two starts, showing a level of form a mile away from his previous starts.

This must be due to the stable form at the time. His Grade 1 win was the stables only success in December (1-35). They were 0-22 in Jan and 2-28 in Feb (the period of Souffleur's two bad runs). They are currently 3-36 in March. Their last winner was a fortnight ago and that was in a race where 6 of the 8 runners failed to finish. Since then they are 0-20 (16 unplaced). A big worry for supporters.

On the contrary the trainer of Los Nadis, Peter Monteith, is in great form this month, 4 winners from 14 runners. This is an interesting runner, I’m putting a line through his first three runs in this country where he was a long way behind Sadler’s Kingdom and Smugglers Bay (hurdles debut) as his form took a drastic turn for the better after those runs. The turning point came after his hurdles debut on the flat here, kicking a long way clear only to get collared late on. After that his form-line over hurdles reads 1122 including a victory over First Buddy despite giving the runner-up 7lb. First Buddy is fair on the flat, he finished 2^nd at Donny yesterday off 79. Los Nadis is still rated 73 on the flat, the mark he ran off on his last run (the 3^rd when kicking clear). It’s unwise to use hurdle form literally, after all Souffleur would be giving Los Nadis over 20lb over hurdles, BUT it can be a great insight to gauge a horse’s well being and/or improvement. He is 21931122 when racing prominently (the 9 was on his UK debut at 100/1). He is 7867 when being held up. He is also 3112 here. There are no other real front runners in the race and I’m hoping he bowls along up front today. I may re-asses during the race, if he is held up. (i.e. lay off half the stake in running maybe).

Clear Reef is a horse I’ve backed on every occasion this season. He has been solid on the A/W although has gone up 13lb since his last week. I do think there is improvement in him though and I actually think he’ll be as good if not better on turf. He is a worryingly big price though; he has been double figures on >betfair since the market opened last night, which I find strange.

Sadler’s Kingdom did me a few favours last year and he is a horse that I will be following to some extent this year also. I’m ignoring his last run when he was 10^th of 21 in the Irish Ces, as if it’s anything like our version its extremely hard for a 3-y-o to figure. He only other bad runs were on fast ground. Fitness is a worry obviously, we have no clue here – you can’t judge him on his debut last year, as he is mot the sort to figure in maidens anyway.

Cybersnow is an interesting runner, could be interesting in handicaps this season.

Nothing else looks particularly well handicapped to me and there would have to be excuses from those above in order to figure, I would presume.

Los Nadis 50% of stake 15/2 corals

Clear Reef 25% of stake 11 beffair

Sadler’s Kingdom 25% of stake 12/1 lads/hills

I’m leaving Souffleur out reluctantly due to the stable form worry, he obviously was affected by whatever the problem was and we have no idea how he is. If he wins today he can still be followed, as he will still be well in on the flat. As I’m well in front with them after yesterday I may again mess around with a few cast combos with the shortlist above. Although this is a different kettle of fish, there was more logic with it yesterday due to the high percentage of well drawn past placed horse.

Result

loser -1pt

S/R: 40% (2/5) Staked: 5pts P/L: -1.08pts

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 25th March 2.10 Pentathlon e/w I backed him on his last start over a mile at Southwell, and I pretty much gave up at the halfway mark, only to see him stay on really well to finish 2nd. He would've won had he not challenged down the inside, something you just can't do at any of our left-handed A/W tracks. I backed him on the back of his debut run late last year where he finished 7th at Lingfield. The 2nd, 3rd, and 5th all won next time out (1st and 4th haven't run). Should appreciate the 1m2f here based on his running last time out and the fact that he is out of 'Derby horse' Storming Home. Hoping it will act of the easy ground as he acted on fibresand. His sire won on soft but was always more at home on quicker ground. According to the handicapper he has a bit to find with the jolly Bouguereau who somehow has a rating of 104! :eek I think he is overrated (literaly) and under priced at around 10/11 (current betfair), and I think I have pretty much an each-way bet to nothing at around 4/1 (5/1 RPF). It's currently 5.3 on betfair but I'll be backing it elsewhere as it's E/W. An interesting runner in the race is the Fanshawe newcomer Sphere. I really nicely bred filly. I'll be keeping an eye on her today and I wouldn't be suprised if she turned out to be a typical Fanshawe older horse improver over further later in the season. 4.20 Eradicate I've been toying with this since yesterday. I followed this horse for a bit early last year and he impressed me, he lost his way quite a bit though before coming back to form in his last two races. His early season form last year was pretty useful after winning his maiden he tried to give Smokey Oakey 9lb and was beaten a short head. His next formline reads even better when he won by 2l despite giving weight to Philatelish, Dansant and Sanbuch. He went off favourite after that despite carrying top weight in the King George V at Royal Ascot. He ran a cracker to finish 4th. He went off as short as 8/1 next in a Group 2! He ran poorly though as he did on his next two starts. He come back to form a little like I say on his last two starts and has been gelded since. He is well in if he shows anywhere near his early form, perhaps the gelding will help? If it does have the desired effect then surely there are races to be won this season. If he is right then there isn't a great deal between him and the jolly, so at 4/1 ish I'll take a small chance. Results 2.10 loser -1pt 4.20 loser -1pt S/R: 29% (2/7) Staked: 7pts P/L: -3.08pts

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 26th March Southwell 2.50 Fire Up The Band We can all see that this claimer is a match. Fire Up The Band is the clear form pick, lowered in grade but first time up on a uncertain surface, while Savile's Delight is the in form C&Der. So, quality or fitness? Fire Up The Band's rating is dropping like a stone while Savile's Delight's is raising close to near his career best - commendable at the age of 9. Despite this there is still 13lb between them on official figures, that shows how far apart ability wise they were not so long ago. I know it's theortical/impossible but if they lined up against each other on each of their 6th last run Fire Up The Band would be giving away 45lb if it were a handicap. That is huge, and they face today only 8lb apart - has he really regressed that much, that quickly? Well, no not really, his last 5f run in August was a cracking run. Fitness may not be as big a worry as first throught as his first time out form reads 137151, the furthest he was beat was 3.5l and with the 3rd he won the race on his side. That's quite an impressive first time up record and in the past two seasons his first run was his best. It may be that these days, FTO is the best time to catch him. He only wins when making all though, so I'm hoping he'll have the speed to lead Guto, who also likes to lead. Savile's takes a while to get going and I'm not sure he can give away a lead to such a quality horse. I thought the yard was a little slow this year but they have had a winner and a few nice places. It's going to be around evens I know, but that is value on all known facts. Wolverhampton 6.50 Now You See Me ran above her rating in a few claimers and sellers this year so it was no surprise to see her pick up a small handicap when given a chance at the weights. She has gone up 5lb but has some improvement in here as she is fairly lightly raced. And like I say she ran above her 47 rating in races this year. I have negatives against much of the field and I would think the race will go to either Now You See Me or Blackheath, who has been running out of his skin despite his age, especially here were he is 2111 recently. He lost nothing in the defeat either when narrowly going down to the well handicapped Alexander Hurricane. Now You See Me 60% of stake - 8 >betfair Blackheath 40% of stake - 9/4 lads/hills 7.50 Yes One I backed him a few times last season and to be honest he was disappointing when trained by John Hills. He changed hands in the winter and is now trained by Kevin Ryan. It was no suprise to see him improve for the change of scenery and I was kicking myself for not backing him for more than a saver (backed Garden Party) on his seasonal debut. He beat Safari Sundowner that day, and is the only horse to do do this season. He finished 3rd next time up at the trip shorter than ideal and on a surface that didn't suit. Back at Wolverhampton tonight and back over the slightly longer trip he should return to winning ways. Russ made a good case for High n' Dry last time up at Lingfield and he won well. As Russ told us he was so well handicapped that day and I opposed him with a horse I also thoguht was well handicapped (Waqaarr). He carries a penalty here and obviously I'm a little worried about opposing him again, although I think the race is a little different to the one at Lingfield. I will still come back with a SFC in order to save stakes however - he looks the only danger to Yes One. Yes One 3.2 >betfair Results 2.50 winner +1.75pts 6.50 loser -1pt 7.50 loser -1pt S/R: 30% (3/10) Staked: 10pts P/L: -3.33pts A small loss so far, but thanks to my tricast in the Spring Mile, financially I'm well in front over the first few days of the season.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 27th March Lingfield 3.00 I've had Best One on my mind as a future winner for some time. I backed him on his 2nd start this season where he was very unlucky. Hayley had a bit of a mare, having to switch left and right after failing to get a run, a result of deciding to go the rails route. He came with a wet sail to finish 4th beaten a length. He disappointed next time over the same C&D, running flat after being up with the pace. He was stepped up to a mile on his last start and tried to make all under Debra England. I thought he had the race won until very late on and he faded under a weak ride to finish 3rd. It's very hard to lead all the way around Lingfield, especially under a weak ride - also I don't think he stayed the mile as I remember having a chunk e/w on him last season at Ponty, the last time he was tried over the distance. He looked all over the winner 2 out that day, but just as I started working out my winnings he stopped dead - he finished 4th and I couldn't believe it. I'm convinced he wants shorter. I've been on the look out for him ever since as I think he is well handicapped so you can imagine my surprise when I saw him declared for a seller when I looked yesterday. He is the clear pick at the weights. He is dropped back two furlongs as this is over 6, but I don't think that will be a problem, his two best runs (3rd twice off 74 and 75 in two turf h'caps) were over this shorter trip. Obviously I agree with bowles above although I'm not sure he will lead. His best two runs, the ones mentioned above, come when he was held up over 6f - also in the run mentioned above where he was unlucky, he come from last. This may be hope more than anything as I'm not a fan of front runners around here. Punching goes off quite fast and that may lead for us. Talking of Punching, I thought he was a horse that would be dangerous when dropped to this level this season. However he hasn't really been given a chance with the weights and is winless from his first two selling attempts. That is also the case here (15lb wrong with Best One), but with the blinkers off, I'm having a small saver as I believe it is a matter of time before he does win a seller. Although it's more like to be at a track that will suit him better. A final note, Best One's trainer Clive Brittain has had 4 winners from his last 5 runners. Best One 90% of stake Punching 10% of stake 4.05 Although not totally straight forward Music Box Express has ran some fair races this season since his maiden win and could figure in a race where I have negatives for most of the runners. Dodaa has been running well in average races but he may be hindered here has he comes up against another trailblazer Triskaidekaphobia (42 runs, 7 win but winless here) - they could cut eachother's throats. Billy Red and Rocker don't look good enough at the moment and Kempsey wins every pancake day. Azygous is fancied but was last of 10 on his seasonal debut last year and 10th of 12 the year before. George The Second and Stoneacre Boy could be coming into form and I will risk a few combos with those and my selection Music Box Express. Music Box Express has been heavily backed on every one of his 5 starts this season; 11/4 to 9/4, 8/1 to 11/4, 4/1 to 7/4, and 2/1 to 13/8. So I'll be taking the morning price on betfair or the best price from the big three. He is currently 5.5 on betfair but the market hasn't really formed yet. Music Box Express 45% of stake E/W (hoping for around 5/1) Stoneacre Boy 10% of stake win (hoping for around 20/1) 5.10 I thought Dream Of Fortune was interesting at Doncaster, although I quickly decided against it as I thought the longer trip and ground would be against him. He ran a lot better than his 8th position suggests too, he travelled well, got tapped for a toe a bit and kept on again. Straight away I thought he'd be interesing when back over 10 furlongs. I didn't have to wait long. His first run last year was in probably the strongest dirt maiden of last season, he was 5th to Lucarno, multiple winners Boz and Look So well down the field. He wasn't disgraced in an ok Newmarket maiden next time up and as a result went off fav next time for a Lingfield maiden over a mile. He was given no chance at all that day by Daryll Holland although he did run on from a mile back to finish an 11l 4th. Myself and many obviously made him a good thing on his handicap debut off and attractive 65 last October over 10f here. He went off quite short and looked as if he was going to cruise home, however he had to be driven out to win by under a length. He is only off 70 today and although he has changed hands from Noseda to Quinlan I see no evidence of him losing any ability. The run Saturday should put him spot on, he is back to his winning C&D, and the first time blinkers may be what he wants. I'll have a saver on the only other improver in the race Compton Falcon, Gerard Butler last two runners here have ran well and it should be a price. Dream Of Fortune 90% of stake win Compton Falcom 10% of stake win I'll be staking an extra point with a multiple; 12.5% of stake E/W trixie Best One, Music Box Express, Dream Of Fortune This isn't a usual tactic for me, but I've put a line through a lot of their opponents and just think they all have to be in the frame at least.

[BillyHills]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Good luck Billy, impressive write ups mate so far and i dont know many that would back date their banks to show a minus, fair play and a lesson to all. This forum is not all about who can tip the most winners or have the best yield, its a place for us all to have opinions and gain knowledge from each other. If we win on the way then its a bonus. I sometimes think 'newbies' are afraid to join in incase they look silly if they tip some losers, you dont need a thousand posts to start your own thread, we dont bite, all we ask is for some decent reasoning and we dont ridicule anyone.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 I must say I've been impressed by you Billy. Cracking write-ups and some good winners :notworthy The 1-2-3-4 in one race was also something I've never seen before. Keep up all the good stuff you do. You're a breath of fresh air here on the forum :ok

[stewartd14]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008

27th March Lingfield 3.00 I've had Best One on my mind as a future winner for some time. I backed him on his 2nd start this season where he was very unlucky. Hayley had a bit of a mare, having to switch left and right after failing to get a run, a result of deciding to go the rails route. He came with a wet sail to finish 4th beaten a length. He disappointed next time over the same C&D, running flat after being up with the pace. He was stepped up to a mile on his last start and tried to make all under Debra England. I thought he had the race won until very late on and he faded under a weak ride to finish 3rd. It's very hard to lead all the way around Lingfield, especially under a weak ride - also I don't think he stayed the mile as I remember having a chunk e/w on him last season at Ponty, the last time he was tried over the distance. He looked all over the winner 2 out that day, but just as I started working out my winnings he stopped dead - he finished 4th and I couldn't believe it. I'm convinced he wants shorter. I've been on the look out for him ever since as I think he is well handicapped so you can imagine my surprise when I saw him declared for a seller when I looked yesterday. He is the clear pick at the weights. He is dropped back two furlongs as this is over 6, but I don't think that will be a problem, his two best runs (3rd twice off 74 and 75 in two turf h'caps) were over this shorter trip. Obviously I agree with bowles above although I'm not sure he will lead. His best two runs, the ones mentioned above, come when he was held up over 6f - also in the run mentioned above where he was unlucky, he come from last. This may be hope more than anything as I'm not a fan of front runners around here. Punching goes off quite fast and that may lead for us. Talking of Punching, I thought he was a horse that would be dangerous when dropped to this level this season. However he hasn't really been given a chance with the weights and is winless from his first two selling attempts. That is also the case here (15lb wrong with Best One), but with the blinkers off, I'm having a small saver as I believe it is a matter of time before he does win a seller. Although it's more like to be at a track that will suit him better. A final note, Best One's trainer Clive Brittain has had 4 winners from his last 5 runners. Best One 90% of stake Punching 10% of stake

As with everyone else, delighted to see you start your own thread mate. And what better way to start it off with another 1-2. :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap

[RussP]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008

Good luck Billy, impressive write ups mate so far and i dont know many that would back date their banks to show a minus, fair play and a lesson to all. This forum is not all about who can tip the most winners or have the best yield, its a place for us all to have opinions and gain knowledge from each other. If we win on the way then its a bonus. I sometimes think 'newbies' are afraid to join in incase they look silly if they tip some losers, you dont need a thousand posts to start your own thread, we dont bite, all we ask is for some decent reasoning and we dont ridicule anyone.

Great post and completely agree. BTW, nice 1-2 for you in the first race this afternoon.

[mowgli77]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Nice to see someone who likes to pick winners in the lower class races, I believe Stewartd14 also has some success at this level. I am not too good at sprints or class 6 sellers and although I prefer listed and above it's not through racing snobbery. Good luck with this thread, sure to be a success, glad you stayed around after Cheltenham. :ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 7.20 Thank God for A/W claimers and sellers! Not fashionable, or that exciting I know, but for me over the years they have always proved fruitfull and lets be fair, regardless of what we sometimes think and say, it is all about the money. The one tonight at Wolverhampton however is a little trickier than usual. Blue Sky Thinking has been pretty prolific in claimers since last season with formlines of 2111161. He has always been slung in at the weights in those and his price has reflected that, he has gone off at an average price of 13/8 in the above races. He won well last time but was given a real chance at the weights that day and maybe more importantly he really had the run of the race - all of his rivals were given shocking rides. He does have a chance here, being a 74 horse, but I'm not sure how true to that rating he actually is, like I say he was flattered by the run last time and it has been a long time since he ran in a handicap. With the uncertainty regarding how good he is these days I'm opposing himat the short price. I think Princess Cocoa is far more a solid choice. She has been running very consistantly in better races off mid 70 marks since last Summer. In fact she has been ultra-consistent her whole career, if we discount her maidens she has found the first three 14 times from 19 runs. She has won twice from five starts here, never beaten more than 1.5l. She has only ever won at this trip and Fahey has really come into form over the past few days too. Will be having small savers on Lucayan Dancer who may strip fitter after Saturday's run. The stable had a winner in the grade yesterday and in the past would've taken this with ease. Princess Cocoa 90% of stake 9/4 hills/lads/coral Lucayan Dancer 10% of stake 12 betfair

[alexmac]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Good luck with the thread, looking forward to following it mate. All the best, Alex.

[stewartd14]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008

7.20 Thank God for A/W claimers and sellers! Not fashionable, or that exciting I know, but for me over the years they have always proved fruitfull and lets be fair, regardless of what we sometimes think and say, it is all about the money. The one tonight at Wolverhampton however is a little trickier than usual. Blue Sky Thinking has been pretty prolific in claimers since last season with formlines of 2111161. He has always been slung in at the weights in those and his price has reflected that, he has gone off at an average price of 13/8 in the above races. He won well last time but was given a real chance at the weights that day and maybe more importantly he really had the run of the race - all of his rivals were given shocking rides. He does have a chance here, being a 74 horse, but I'm not sure how true to that rating he actually is, like I say he was flattered by the run last time and it has been a long time since he ran in a handicap. With the uncertainty regarding how good he is these days I'm opposing himat the short price. I think Princess Cocoa is far more a solid choice. She has been running very consistantly in better races off mid 70 marks since last Summer. In fact she has been ultra-consistent her whole career, if we discount her maidens she has found the first three 14 times from 19 runs. She has won twice from five starts here, never beaten more than 1.5l. She has only ever won at this trip and Fahey has really come into form over the past few days too. Will be having small savers on Lucayan Dancer who may strip fitter after Saturday's run. The stable had a winner in the grade yesterday and in the past would've taken this with ease. Princess Cocoa 90% of stake 9/4 hills/lads/coral Lucayan Dancer 10% of stake 12 betfair

:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap 1st and 2nd again mate - you are on fire. :notworthy:notworthy

[RussP]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Well done BTP. Get those forecasts going mate:ok

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 I'll do a summary thread everyday if possible. First of all thanks to everyone for all the comments. It's a really welcoming forum where everyone knows their stuff. Results 3.00 winner + 0.89pts 4.05 loser -1pt 5.10 loser -1pt multiple -1pt 7.20 winner + 0.2pts S/R: 36% (5/14) Staked: 15pts P/L: -5.24pts Disappointed with the price of Best One, although nice to get the 1-2 with Punching running well. Music Box Expressed was well backed again (4/1 to 11/4) but ran poorly. I said he wasn't straight forward but that comment looks kind now! Little unlucky in the 5.10 with Compton Falcon coming 2nd at 12/1. Dream Of Fortune travelled well but put the breaks on when given the office. He either backed away from the blinds or is just ungenuine. I did touch on this in my post and I have big question marks over him now. Little gutted again regarding the too small a stake (should've been 80/20) on Lucayan Dancer but at least it was another 1-2 in this grade for me. Not really clicked so far this season, not how I'd like anyway, but have had four 2nd's in the past three days. Financially it's going well though, like I said in my original post I personaly up-stakes for my speciality races (valuable handicaps and a/w claimers/sellers) where I am 4/5. As I'm doing purely level stakes on this thread for ALL flat bets by target was to be level for the start of May. Knowing that I'd be financially infront having staked accordingly on certain races.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 3.40 When I first glanced at this race last night (48hr decs are the best thing to happen to punters since betfair) I really like the look of Canary Islands. I thought he had been given an ok chance by the handicapper and with the yard in flying form I thought he would be the value in the race, I thought General Blucher would be favourite. Obviously I was surprised when I say him chalked up at 11/8 in the RPF tonight. I really thought they would be something like 9/4 joints. I think the forcast is a little stingy and I wouldn't be surprised if he was a little bigger come the race, he is already 13/8 on betfair. But despite that I think he must go close, he has been in my notebook since his 2nd run where he ran an encouraging race despite not being knocked about. His next run was even more encouraging finishing a fast finishing third to good thing Sundowner. Ideally I'd like to see him over further, his future clearly lies over 1m2f and more. However despite the negatives (trip/price) I don't want to let him go and will back him knowing that if he fails today, he'll repay me next time up. The yard have been in great form since his last run, two winners and a 2nd from three runners. Canary Islands 100% of stake 4.50 3-y-o maidens aren't really my thing but I believe this looks a solid two horse race. They have been made backable as Allied Powers is likely to be 2nd fav, making my selections a little more attractively priced. I'm not a fan of the maiden Allied Powers finished third in last time up. The form got let down badly this week (much to my disappointment as I backed one of the runners) and I much prefer the form of Vice Consul and Maadraa. Vice Consul ran a cracker on his debut to finish a length behind Summer Wind (Saturday's Donny maiden winner down the field). He dwelt from his wide draw but still managed to take up the running three, that was probably a little to early but despite that he still only got beaten a length, battling on. It's a extra 2f today but being out of In The Wings and a Rainbow Quest mare he will more than appreciate it. I make Maadraa the danger who I think will be over priced. His debut form reads well where he finished 2nd at Kempton, the first and third won since. He was turned over at odds on next time out but perhaps lost nothing in defeat finishing 2nd to tonight's winner Dream Desert. He ran another solid race on his last start when he finished 3rd to Al Samha, the 4th won since and the 6th was Canary Islands. Interesting that connections have sticked with the maiden route now he has a handicap mark. Ability to stay this much longer trip is taken on trust though. Vice Consul 60% of stake 3.5 betfair Maadraa 40% of stake 5.5 befair

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 4.00 This really is a shocking race but Bivouac caught my eye. I backed him on his last two runs of last season - finishing a good 2nd to John Dillon at Hamilton but then disappointing at short odds next time up. That's pretty much sums up his career so far - very inconsistent. However I believe there is a race in him off his lowly mark. Perhaps I'm not the only one, as on his handicap debut last season (off 1lb lower) he was backed 11/1 into 4/1, finishing third. He ran ok on his reappearance over C&D and could beat this lot - take a look at the trainers in this race, hardly inspiring. The jockey booking of Robert Winston is encouraging as apart from stable jockey Dean McKeown he has ridden twice as many winners for the yard than any other jockey (28% S/R). Will be taking the best of the morning prices as he has been backed a few times. Bivouac 100% of stake

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 7.20 Kempton Another A/W claimer here. The pick of the weights and the most interesting runner here is Apache Dawn. I remember this sluicing up by 11l in the mud last year on his handicap debut. He was clobbered by the handicapper after that and failed miserably to build on it in three final runs for Kevin Ryan before changing hands for just 10 grand in October. Even if the impressive win wasn't a fluke, then he clearly lost a far bit of ability. He was still badly handicapped off 80 when he made his debut for Gary Moore in December but ran a stormer to finish 2nd at Kempton beaten a neck by Atlantic Story, a race that has worked out really well. He again failed to build on a good run however, finishing down the field in his three runs this term. However if anyone is going to get a race out of him it will be Gary Moore and he is massively down in grade here. He must enter calculations. A horse going the other way, improving, is Jamie Osbourne's Not Now Lewis. The penny finally dropped with this horse in late January and he has won twice and been placed in three small handicaps. He has a bit to find at the weights with one or two (although as mentioned Apache Dawn's mark is misleading) but is running too well not to figure against so many out of sort typs. The stable is in fine form too with three winners from their last six runners. I'll have a F/C combo the above two and Dushstorm, who just misses out of the calculations here as I believe he may need further to win in this grade. Not Now Lewis 60% of stake Apache Dawn 40% of stake

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 3.25 Wolverhampton Rockfield Lodge has been given a real chance in this claimer. He has been holding his own in handicaps so far this season and looked very unlucky at Kempton last time up failing to get a run. That shouldn't be a problem today. He has been a little keen in the past and the only worry would be this small field suiting him. Stable are in form 3 from last 6 and the jockey is 1 from 1 for the yard this season. I'm spinning up between the fav and Little Knickers for my savers. The latter is inconsistent, running off 84 one minute then getting tailed off in a claimer at 16/1 the next. Hard to work out but has ran some cracking races and a reproduction of them would she her figure. The price compared to the jolly's has swayed me, hope I don't rue that. Rockfield Lodge 75% of stake 4 betfair Little Knickers 25% of stake 8.6 befair

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 3.25 loser -1pt 3.40 winner +1.5pts 4.00 loser -1pt 4.50 winner +1.2pts 7.20 loser -1pt S/R: 37% (7/19) Staked: 20pts P/L: -5.54pts Two more 2nd's (Rockfield Lodge/Apache Dawn) today, making it 6 in four days, although no excuses with them, although we could've done with some pace in the 7.20. Bivouac (4.00) however was really unlucky, beaten a length into third. Was going well when he was short of a run on the turn when Circus Polka weakened in front on him. Circus Polka, always seems to lead and weaken badly on the home turn, last time out he was almost moonwalking two out, so why, if your a tuck in horse, would you position your horse directly behind Circus Polka like Winston did with Bivouac. This was a clear case of trouble in running being preventable, all that was need was for trainer or jockey to stick his head in the form book. I actually saw it coming half a mile from home. I've always said a good punter puts in more work than connections sometimes! Thes best bet of the day Canary Island ran as if he was a handicap mistake, he should follow up no trouble.

[billy the punter]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 1.40 Nad Al Sheba One of my favourite horses in training is the ex-Gerard Butler colt Blackat Blackitten, I've backed him on his past seven starts, collecting four times. He is a credit to his former and present connections. He is classy, with a turn of foot and really genuine. 260,000gns well spent as a yearling. I've no idea what Godophin paid for him last winter. He was beaten last time by stablemate Elusive Warning but he didn't have a mile of room on the rails and galloped all the way to the line. That said I think Elusive Warning may confirm places again tomorrow. He travels so well and looks sure to improve again. Also Elusive Warning is better drawn that his stablemate. This is one of the weaker races on the card and I'm taking odds on with a basically a coupling bet. Godophin have won this six times in recent years and I'll be amazed if they don't take this. Perhaps they will fill the 1-2 positions again. Elusive Warning 60% of stake 3.55 betfair Blackat Blackitten 40% of stake 3.85 betfair 3.10 Kempton I'm all for the increasing of A/W tracks/meetings, it makes my life a lot easier, however I don't like to see the transfer of historic turf handicaps from grass to A/W. That's what's happened with the Rosebery, and for me the past two years haven't been the same. It certainly has made it more difficult to find the winner. It's my opinion that higher class A/W races (Class 2 and above) are much trickier than their turf equivalents. This was proved with the farce of a Winter Derby this month, I didn't play so I'm not talking through my pocket, but if you ran the Winter Derby five times you would've seen five different results. There was hardly no pace and the form should be taken lightly (don't worry I AM getting to the point). That's why I'm prepared to give Philatelist another chance. He finished 10th of 14 in the Winter Derby but I'm putting a line straight through that run. He lost his place on the inner at half way and was niggled along sooner than expected. He did get into top gear about one out and starting to make a challenging run. His jockey chose to stick to the inner, not only is that a difficult place to win from, his path was blocked, he was eased when his chance went. I think he would've finished top four or five at least. He won well on his seasonal debut but hasn't been harshly treated, given a 5lb hike and is off 94 now. He ran a cracker at Royal Ascot off 92 on only his 5th start, over a trip which does strech his stamina. I believe he is a much stronger horse now. He won his maiden at 1m4f but since then looked not to stay that trip in handicaps, perhaps this trip of 1m3f is perfect. His trainer entered him over it for his racecourse debut after all. (Has the Rosebery always been 1m3f?) I will be having some savers as usual. Heron Bay got clobbered by the handicapper after his Royal Ascot win (Philatelish 7th), but probably ran upto that sort of mark in the messy Gordon Stakes, his next race. His early season form last year was useful and I really think there is another big race in him. Poor draw, but price big enough to carry a small stake. Players Please ran some solid races in big handicaps last season. He clearly likes the hussle and bussle of the big fields. His day surely has to come in a race like this. He is 2/3 on the dirt (as is Philatelist), has won when fresh and is one of only 4 distance winners in the field. I backed Gold Prospect on both his A/W runs last year and they turned out to be his best two runs of the season. His maiden form reads well now and he runs here off 80 with the claim. Is well drawn too. I've had a couple of 1-2s this week but didn't play the casts, when I have on 2/3 occasions this week it's proved fruitless, but as I'm well in front in the dept after last weekend so I'll do the combos here I suppose - rude not to. Philatelist 50% of stake 6.0 betfair Players Please 30% of stake 8.6 betfair Heron Bay 10% of stake Gold Prospect 10% of stake Think the last two will be around 20 come the morning. 3.45 Kempton Diamond Tycoon was an interesting horse last season despite only having two runs. I laid him E/W in the 2000 Guineas, not because I don't like him, I just don't think you can win your maiden in late April and then with the Guineas. The race came too soon, maybe that is why he came back wrong and wasn't seen again in 2007. He was far from disgraced on the big day, beaten less than 6l and finishing 6th of his group. The reason he went off as short as 15/2 that day was due to his maiden win just before. He bolted up by 6l despite looking in need of the run and clocked an impressive time (4l faster the Spring Cup that day). What was even more amazing was the horses he beat that day; the 2nd was a classic(!), the 3rd won three times, the 4th and 5th won NTO, the 6th won four times inc the Cambridgeshire, the 7th won NTO and was placed at Royal Ascot, the 8th won NTO, the 10th, 12th, 13th, 14th, and 16th all won. Sorry to go on, but I've never seen a maiden like this. Apparently the trip is a slight worry but he ran on over 1m on his sole two year old start and I think he'll get this trip today. He finished 2nd that day - (Jalil was 6th! The horses this horse has beaten is unreal). I hope he has retained his ability as he could be useful, he is a shoe-in here IF he has. Spice Route wasn't disgraced when upped to Group company last season and is a big price against some horses that are not Group class. Diamond Tycoon 80% of stake 9/4 paddy power Spice Route 20% of stake 10.5 betfair

[gord]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 good luck btp am enjoying your thread!

[Gingertipster]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008 Nice to see a fellow value backer Billy (table of odds and chances and all that). Will follow your thread with interest.

[RussP]

Re: BTP's Selections - Flat 2008

3.10 Kempton I'm all for the increasing of A/W tracks/meetings, it makes my life a lot easier, however I don't like to see the transfer of historic turf handicaps from grass to A/W. That's what's happened with the Rosebery, and for me the past two years haven't been the same. It certainly has made it more difficult to find the winner. It's my opinion that higher class A/W races (Class 2 and above) are much trickier than their turf equivalents. This was proved with the farce of a Winter Derby this month, I didn't play so I'm not talking through my pocket, but if you ran the Winter Derby five times you would've seen five different results. There was hardly no pace and the form should be taken lightly (don't worry I AM getting to the point). That's why I'm prepared to give Philatelist another chance. He finished 10th of 14 in the Winter Derby but I'm putting a line straight through that run. He lost his place on the inner at half way and was niggled along sooner than expected. He did get into top gear about one out and starting to make a challenging run. His jockey chose to stick to the inner, not only is that a difficult place to win from, his path was blocked, he was eased when his chance went. I think he would've finished top four or five at least. He won well on his seasonal debut but hasn't been harshly treated, given a 5lb hike and is off 94 now. He ran a cracker at Royal Ascot off 92 on only his 5th start, over a trip which does strech his stamina. I believe he is a much stronger horse now. He won his maiden at 1m4f but since then looked not to stay that trip in handicaps, perhaps this trip of 1m3f is perfect. His trainer entered him over it for his racecourse debut after all. (Has the Rosebery always been 1m3f?) I will be having some savers as usual. Heron Bay got clobbered by the handicapper after his Royal Ascot win (Philatelish 7th), but probably ran upto that sort of mark in the messy Gordon Stakes, his next race. His early season form last year was useful and I really think there is another big race in him. Poor draw, but price big enough to carry a small stake. Players Please ran some solid races in big handicaps last season. He clearly likes the hussle and bussle of the big fields. His day surely has to come in a race like this. He is 2/3 on the dirt (as is Philatelist), has won when fresh and is one of only 4 distance winners in the field. I backed Gold Prospect on both his A/W runs last year and they turned out to be his best two runs of the season. His maiden form reads well now and he runs here off 80 with the claim. Is well drawn too. I've had a couple of 1-2s this week but didn't play the casts, when I have on 2/3 occasions this week it's proved fruitless, but as I'm well in front in the dept after last weekend so I'll do the combos here I suppose - rude not to. Philatelist 50% of stake 6.0 betfair Players Please 30% of stake 8.6 betfair Heron Bay 10% of stake Gold Prospect 10% of stake

Well done Billy, the main bet won and what a cracking price:clap:clap The horse seemed a little ungenuine to me and I have to praise Neil Callan for giving it a super ride. Was certainly the best animal on show but it did seem to idle in front. Great winner.