happygooner Posted March 16, 2008 Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Fulham 1-0 Everton :wall sums up the weekend...thankfully its over:rollinHeres hoping for next week boys Chin up dusty, take a look at mine and the loons latest collaboration in the gloryhunt section:ok I say collaboration but i'm just the ideas man:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 16, 2008 Author Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Will do Goon, dont lose faith in this yet:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted March 16, 2008 Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Will do Goon' date=' dont lose faith in this yet:unsure[/quote'] Certainly not losing faith in this but if it's a question of potential, the loon will tell you himself that he sees a HUGE amount of potential in the lays. I'm sure this will come good though so not to fret. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 16, 2008 Author Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Looks good m8, what a start:clap Only problem I would have is I only have a bet 365 account and cannot lay:( Who would you recommend an account with if I wanted to lay teams? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 16, 2008 Share Posted March 16, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Certainly not losing faith in this but if it's a question of potential, the loon will tell you himself that he sees a HUGE amount of potential in the lays. I'm sure this will come good though so not to fret. betfair.....this laying thing hasn't just a good start though...it's the best backtested system i've ever come across either :tongue2 ...by an almightly long shot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 17, 2008 Share Posted March 17, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways right...will post the stats tomorrow morning (before 10 i hope) so you will all have something to look over...but as you will guess - won't be too pretty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 17, 2008 Share Posted March 17, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways there is one selection for today, but the odds are too low...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 17, 2008 Author Share Posted March 17, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Not to worry Loon, roll on next week. Swapped my account to betfair so I can lay teams now..watching your glory hunters thread aswell as this. Still hopeful for the aways tho:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted March 17, 2008 Share Posted March 17, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Not to worry Loon' date=' roll on next week. Swapped my account to betfair so I can lay teams now..watching your glory hunters thread aswell as this. Still hopeful for the aways tho:hope[/quote'] If you're on todays lay I hope you got it before the price drifted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 17, 2008 Author Share Posted March 17, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Been away at work mate so missed todays but good luck anyway:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways No selections so far this week, should be some for the weekend:hope get the system back on track:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways LEAGUESELECTIONODDSSTAKEBelgian Jupiler LeagueKVC Westerlo2.652.26 ptsBelgian Jupiler LeagueKFC Germinal Beerschot Antwerp NV2.102.26 ptsEnglish League TwoDarlington FC1.932.26 ptsEnglish League TwoRochdale AFC2.392.26 ptsEnglish National League Conference - SouthEastleigh FC2.672.26 pts let's hope for a good weekend this time round :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 22, 2008 Author Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways :clap Some selections, I was beginning to feel neglected in this thread:lol Lets hope we get back on track loon and get the bank back up:hope. Bad luck in the glory hunters thread yesterday:sad. Ive tried laying before and my bottle went after a few loses which basically undid all my winnings, your right its not for the faint hearted. Lets hope for bananas and cows today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Good luck with today´s selections, Loon and Dusty...... BTW, Loon, where do you get your odds from? Most are even better than Betfair (except Eastleigh, which isn´t covered). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Good luck with today´s selections' date=' Loon and Dusty...... BTW, Loon, where do you get your odds from? Most are even better than Betfair (except Eastleigh, which isn´t covered).[/quote'] well....first off i posted them at 2:30 odd in the morning, so that might mean odds changed a little after i'd posted, but i just got them using oddsoddsodds.com. I really should be posting the bookies too, since it's not just one place whilst dusty usually sticks to bet365 as far as i'm aware. next time i post some i'll make sure the bookies right alongside it too :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Thanks for the clarification, Loon. However, I do think there´s a case for introducing a "rule" on this section of the Forum that everbody quotes odds from the same bookie. I raised this issue in a previous post on my thread: "I had nothing to do on a Thursday evening (very little football - commiserations to Bolton fans).... so, I decided to check the odds quoted on selections from the other threads in this section of the forum... many identify the bookie offering the quoted odds, but some simply quote odds (relatively high) that are apparently taken from the many "odds checker" sites. This, of course, assumes that you have the time (and finances) to maintain 10 to 15 accounts. For us mere mortals, who are less resourceful, we are never going to secure these odds and achieve the system yields quoted." There is another point.... the best odds for a particular match will probably be on one of the exchanges.... however, liquidity may be very low (especially for the lower leagues), so for us big spenders :dude , we are not going to be able to place our huge stakes at the quoted odds. For viewers wanting to compare the relative success of the various systems, it would be fairer to have a "level playingfield" i.e. for all system owners to use one of the "big" bookies. Anyway, this is not a criticism of your system, Loon..... but perhaps food for thought for the Moderators :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Thanks for the clarification, Loon. However, I do think there´s a case for introducing a "rule" on this section of the Forum that everbody quotes odds from the same bookie. I raised this issue in a previous post on my thread: "I had nothing to do on a Thursday evening (very little football - commiserations to Bolton fans).... so, I decided to check the odds quoted on selections from the other threads in this section of the forum... many identify the bookie offering the quoted odds, but some simply quote odds (relatively high) that are apparently taken from the many "odds checker" sites. This, of course, assumes that you have the time (and finances) to maintain 10 to 15 accounts. For us mere mortals, who are less resourceful, we are never going to secure these odds and achieve the system yields quoted." There is another point.... the best odds for a particular match will probably be on one of the exchanges.... however, liquidity may be very low (especially for the lower leagues), so for us big spenders :dude , we are not going to be able to place our huge stakes at the quoted odds. For viewers wanting to compare the relative success of the various systems, it would be fairer to have a "level playingfield" i.e. for all system owners to use one of the "big" bookies. Anyway, this is not a criticism of your system, Loon..... but perhaps food for thought for the Moderators :notworthy i feel you are 100% correct about this, and should they ever put such a rule forward i would fully endorse it - because how else can fair comparisons be drawn. But i guess it won't happen, we have so many bookies out there, and not many do the specialist leagues (as bwin do) so you'd end up not being able to post your selections! but not to worry....i have a plan (which will no doubt get laughed off but i'll say it anyway). we collect all the fixtures and all the odds for all the fixtures over a set period (let's say 2 years or more). Then we create a neutral bookie (let's call it PUNTER) based on the total average odds, by this i mean, for each match they determine the average odds, and then note down the deviation from the average for each bookie. And then make a formula that can convert any odds from any bookie to this neutral one based on the past odds history, meaning that things would then be completely level. So each person who posts a system can post the odds from their bookie, side by sde with the neutral odds. in case you're lost, here's an example: Wolves v Scunthorpe (HW) betfair = 1.80 bet365 = 1.70 bWin = 1.75 canbet = 1.65 from the years of past odds, we determined: betfair are 1.05 above the average bet365 are 1.02 below the average bWin at 1.03 above the average canbet are 1.5 below the average so we'd know that the PUNTER odds for this match would go the following; betfair = 1.71 bet365 = 1.73 bWin = 1.69 canbet = 1.73 obviously it still means people will have different odds for the same game, but as i hope my example illustrated, variation will be much less in most cases, and it would be a much fairer comparison of course, this is just the ramblings of one person - an idea though (crazy enough i bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways My God...... how do you do it, Loon? I think you should be employed by the international community to solve the Middle East Conflict..... I´m sure there´s a statistical solution :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 22, 2008 Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways My God...... how do you do it' date=' Loon? I think you should be employed by the international community to solve the Middle East Conflict..... I´m sure there´s a statistical solution :lol[/quote'] haha, does that mean you consider my idea feasible?!!! :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 22, 2008 Author Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Only 1/3 so far:cry None of the belgian picks winning at the moment,:hope for the second half or its another losing weekend im afraid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 22, 2008 Author Share Posted March 22, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways I,ll leave the bananas up to you m8, 2 good second half performances from the begian picks gives us 3/5:ok should make things a bit healthier looking and get us back on track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways haha, that's your job mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways TOTAL STAKED48.71TOTAL RETURNED44.57P / L-4.14YIELD-8.50%STRIKE RATE40%STARTING BANK100CURRENT BANK95.86NEXT UNIT STAKE2.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways LEAGUESELECTIONODDSSTAKEEnglish National League Conference - NorthKettering Town FC1.922.40 ptsEnglish National League Conference - NorthBarrow FC2.252.40 ptsEnglish National League Conference - NorthBurscough FC1.862.40 ptsEnglish National League Conference - NorthStalybridge Celtic FC2.402.40 ptsEnglish National League Conference - NorthHarrogate Town FC1.862.40 pts although only barrow and stalybridge are highlighted, i think we should take all of them, since their odds are reasonably high. Odds from 10bet, b365, betfair, bwin, betfair (in that order) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 24, 2008 Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Burscough was postponed, so we had 3/4 winners..only one that didn't was Stalybridge who lost 2-0, the others all won 0-1! TOTAL STAKED 58.31 TOTAL RETURNED 59.04 P / L 0.73 YIELD 1.25% STRIKE RATE 46% STARTING BANK 100 CURRENT BANK 100.73 NEXT UNIT STAKE 2.52 so we're "fixed" if you like, finally back above 100.....let's see if we can build from here this time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 24, 2008 Author Share Posted March 24, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Good stuff Loon, back on form lets hope it keeps going:ok Cant believe I missed selections tho being at work all day:( Impressed with your LSS at the moment Good run hope it continues:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways Good stuff Loon' date=' back on form lets hope it keeps going:ok Cant believe I missed selections tho being at work all day:( Impressed with your LSS at the moment Good run hope it continues:clap[/quote'] ye...let's hope these aways can do their job! I almost had forgotten to post them, if i had remembered, they would have been on much earlier...so it's my fault - sorry about that :$ LSS doing ok currently, i can only hope it continues :hope:hope:hope , and also that mine and the Goon's attempt "fix" the away lays comes off ok so we can fix that awful start! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways I am looking at another simple system where I pick the leagues with the highest percentage of home wins' date=' then pick teams above their opponents in the 6 match form league then select the evens or above picks. Really Dustys basic aways in reverse. I am doing a wee paper trial starting this weekend where there are a few picks[/quote'] hi...just got back with some results for you: 80% from 1825 matches. If you fancy that in more detail, just say so. Obviously the thing with the backtesting is that the selections aren't accompanied by odds, so i don't know how many of these were odds on. But looks quite good, even if the strike rate was cut to 65%, at evens profit would still be pretty nice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted March 26, 2008 Author Share Posted March 26, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways cheers loon mate, will keep my wee trial going until the end of the season and see how it goes. For now my cash will stay on the aways and your LSS which is doing great:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted March 26, 2008 Share Posted March 26, 2008 Re: Dusty LoonGoons Aways cheers loon mate' date=' will keep my wee trial going until the end of the season and see how it goes. For now my cash will stay on the aways and your LSS which is doing great:ok[/quote'] if you like, i cant extract a list of all the would-be selections, and you can go through and find the odds. i know, 1825 is a HUGE sample, but that means that this can be pretty successful for you. so just let me know if you want it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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