koi_saisei Posted February 17, 2008 Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Wow... it is happening all over again- Carlton fans thinking they'll make finals after that performance. They need to take a long hard look at what they were playing against, they should have been looking at a massacre, but just scraped through. Don't get me started on the commentating by Walls. He is in love with his precious Carlton team, barely even acknowledged the other team. Also, according to him, every player is a STAR or will be a STAR. Sheesh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 17, 2008 Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Still over 4 hours 'til KO... ...I'm just scouting around for some team news now, but Freo have beaten WC in Rd. 1 last 2 seasons by 37 and 62. Sydney +32.5 (2.00) has sparked my interest, simply because of the amount of points. As un-seriously as Roos has taken this comp, Swans have bowed out in first round in last 5 years!...but only one loss by more than 32... ...and Hawks only 2-2 last 4 years (first round) with wins of just 10 and 24 over poor Richmond and Melbourne... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 17, 2008 Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Also' date=' according to him, every player is a STAR or will be a STAR. Sheesh.[/quote'] Brett Thornton... ...may well have been their "best defender" for a couple of years... ...but good lord he's terrible!!! Wouldn't get a game in 10 of the 16 teams! :lol Wallsy loves him tho! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 17, 2008 Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup B: Peter Faulks, LRT, Keiren Jack HB: Paul Bevan, Nick Malceski, Ben Matthews C: Martin Mattner, Jude Bolton, Kristin Thornton HF: Ryan O'Keefe, Ed Barlow, Jarrad McViegh F: Nick Davis, Heath Grundy, Daniel O'Keefe R: Jesse White, Amon Buchanan, Jared Moore INT: Craig Bird, Ryan Brabazon, Brett Merideth, Nick Smith, Matthew O'Dywer, Matthew Beckmans, Aaron Bruce, Dean Terlich Obvously very thin on the bench, but the starting 18 looks solid enough... ...Dunno. Not entirely convinced... ...but as I type, tey've drifted out to +33.5 (2.00)...looks a lot of points... Freo will belt WC. 1.25 for the win is a gift ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 17, 2008 Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Wow... it is happening all over again- Carlton fans thinking they'll make finals after that performance. They need to take a long hard look at what they were playing against, they should have been looking at a massacre, but just scraped through. Don't get me started on the commentating by Walls. He is in love with his precious Carlton team, barely even acknowledged the other team. Also, according to him, every player is a STAR or will be a STAR. Sheesh.Oh yes, nearly forgot! Big prediction that he thinks Waite can be a STAR at CHB - well blow me away, Robert! As people, umpires are apparently laughable trash, while players are god's gift ... . The blokes a tool (now I'm stating the obvious)! :puke Just about to start looking at today's games. Been a bit behind - spending half a day contemplating Essendon - glad there's a cheque though. Cats made the 1.42 look big in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BURNTUA CRISP Posted February 17, 2008 Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup NAB Cup - Sunday In Launceston. Hawthorn (475) $1.11 Fav. - 9 of their best 26 missing, with their defence hard hit and with Lewis expected to be a late withdrawl. - Williams replaces Roughead in the forward line and instantly gives it an added dimension. - Midfield is strong, but will use plenty of youngsters through the middle during the match. - Lost their last 2 games in Launceston in the NAB Cup. Have a poor recent record against the Swans. - Should beat the Swans, but you rarely see a blowout in Launceston. Sydney (635) $6.25 - 14 of their best 26 missing, including 12 of their best 14. - No pre-season win in the NAB Cup since 2002, with an average losing margin of 42 points. - Obviously assessing their youth and shielding their stars. Some of their youngsters must start showing something and today is the perfect stage. At Subiaco Oval. Fremantle (434) $1.23 Fav. - 6 of their best 26 missing with Bell and Black the big names missing. - A much stronger line-up than they played in Round 22. Obviously don't want to play in Albany next week. - Full strength defence and attack. Hard to see them being stretched by the Eagles. West Coast (546) $4.05 - 9 of their best 26 missing, including 6 of their best 10. - Team looks very similar to the one that got smashed by Port in the middle of last season. - Forward line looks strong, but missing to many midfielders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 17, 2008 Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup I see the cap at about 35. Looking at last two years there's similar diff in team strength. Syd played both in Canberra and their opp both lost the next week. Tassie has got to be huge advantage for Hawks. Obviously which two will Haw cut plus any compacency factors makes me keep this not more than 35, IMO. I will probably take the 1.15 SU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 17, 2008 Share Posted February 17, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup I've had a small(ish) dabble on +38.5 (1.93) Just think it's too many points. Ended up getting 1.32 for Freo @ BetFair as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup OK..week 2. No bet for me Friday night...Griffen out for Dogs, Ess get a whole host of players back...just about full strength besides Lloyd... ...but big deal! :D Dogs have won 3 previous real games...neither team (historically) cares much for pre-season...although Knights clearly differs from Sheedy. Bombers probably deserve to be slight favs...but, well, big deal! lol. Interested in Carlton @ 2.10ish early... Despite all the hype, Hawthorn have been rubbish in pre-season! 3 wins since 2003...v. St. Kilda who would have run out with water boys...and v. Richmond and Melbourne...who have no choice but to run out with glorified water boys!! :D Haven't ever made it passed the QF in this format...scraped a win last week (heart rate back to normal yet Ash?!) against a very weak Swans team...really only due to two early 50m/super goals... Swans had plenty of the ball but no scoring options. Blues have won it 2 of last 3 years...clearly they try!...beat Hawthorn in this round @ Tassie last year @ 2.35. Will be very interested @ 2.20 or so...still, looks a very even affair... Some big outs, but also big in's for Geelong...backline could be a little thin, although few to no changes @ Saints means no Riewoldt. Both teams with pretty good pre-season records tbh...We all know the Saints suck outdoors...but again, Geelong don't really interest me @ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Jr Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Nice write-up Taza I would't touch the Cats Saints game with so many star missing on both sides unless you like the flip of a coin. I reckon the Hawks might be worth a shot but will wait to see the line. Last time they played the Blues, they pumped em by 100pts and that was without Buddy Boy! No Fisher and no Judd for the Blues in this game. Hawks will play much better under the roof of the Dome compared to the windy surrounds of Tassie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup You leave my windy surrounds out of this!! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Fortunately my staking plan is to back 1.15 shots with same stake as any other bet. Gotta be an easier way to make me 15 cents though. Oh yes, well done on that one Taza. Come on boys! Don't be sucked in by the Essendon hype. Dons with still a few missing and way in grade while Dogs come well back in grade; Event W Bulldogs v Essendon Selection W Bulldogs Strength 10/10 Date 22/02/2008 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.18 (Back) Reasoning Plenty of journo hype over Essendon through the week seems to have fashioned a false favourite. Some big names in but still some big names missing and must consider the ins are at a disadvantage not having played last week. They were gifted a down strength docile opponent last week and to be honest looked very cumbersome trying to come to terms with a new playing style. Bulldogs may not have appeared impressive, which was only due to the conditions. Based on team strength, that match was also the highest standard for the round and even though Bulldogs are a little weaker this time, they will still be the far stronger (even if they do cut two good players). Biggest danger I can think of is how they will back up off Darwin but with the full seven day rest I feel the very fit Bulldogs will more likely thrive on being back at home. My price; WBD 4/7. Increased stake. Also like Saints tomorrow despite the big ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Got a feeling Hird won't play, either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BURNTUA CRISP Posted February 22, 2008 Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Ratings for NAB Quarter Finals. Western Bulldogs (463) 2.10 - Lost a few players from last week, but still fielding a decent side. Return trip from Darwin may be a factor. Essendon (473) 1.72 Fav. - Fletcher and Stanton unlikely to play and will be backing their leg speed to beat the Dogs. St.Kilda (532) 2.05 - Team not significantly improved since last week. Have a game style that might upset the Cats midfield. Geelong (561) 1.75 Fav. - Resting their stars with the midfield weakened. Will welcome back Corey and Enright. Tend to struggle in Canberra. Carlton (461) 2.05 - Fisher a big loss in attack. Waite will stay in a defence which already looks frail. Same rating as last week. Hawthorn (460) 1.75 Fav. - Slightly improved team with Brown back. Have a significant midfield advantage, but need to put the score on the board. Adelaide (405) - Had the best win of week 1 and fielding a powerful line up again. Have the midfield superiority, but their forward line looks the weak link. Fremantle (448) - Midfield weakened with Hasleby gone, but play well at AAMI Stadium. I expect a low scoring game with defences on top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Return trip from Darwin may be a factor. . I sure hope so...but with 2 extra players on the bench, and 10 minutes less playing time (last week) I'm not all that convinced! :\ Dogs looked SLOW...skill was way down...and although Welsh didn't play much, that long kick to Hahn, Johnson looks very much like it's here to stay. Still, McDougall stayed on Lucas all night, with Lake (why does that sound so stupid?!) staying on the resting ruckman, so I'm not sure Doggies took it 100% seriously. Have to say umpiring was go-awful!!...Got the feeling 5 minutes in we were in for some stick...after Essendon got 3 points for rushing a point of their own!!!...Dogs got just 1 for Peverill rolling it through and that, er, interesting deliberate OOB of Lake's... Anyway...today, Carlton @ 2.30...2.80 under 39.5 even, looks pretty juicy. Got a feeling we could be going against this over-blown Hawthorn team more often than not this season ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Nothing looked serious at all about them last night, Taza. Maybe even the long kick business is just some B-plan experiment :unsure. Don's are looking like last years Carlton. I still think bottom four might be more their place come the regular season. Been out all day - what's with Saints drifting from 2.19 to 2.42? Good players out?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Jr Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Hey Ash, On what I saw last night, what odds do you think we get for the Doggies for the spoon? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Last I looked, they were 7.5 which still doesn't appeal. I rated them about a 16.00 shot and think they'll have a fairly good season and last night doesn't change my thinking much. Eade has the brain power to think of things to counteract opposition game styles but I don't think he even bothered showing any sort of hand last night. Can't see M. Gardiner and Steven Jack from their original 22 but both sides still displaying 28 each at present. Realy feel Cat's are the more likely to have a slack one today, so Saints should be tried at this price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Saints have cut X.Clarke, M Gardiner, Miles, Mcqualter. Geelong; Laidler, Simpson. Which leaves Geelong the bit stronger sqaud. As shown last night, team strength is not always the key thing in these. Saints definately a bet IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kewell Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Got a feeling Hird won't play' date=' either.[/quote'] Look don't get me wrong, love you work on this forum, but for f*ck's sake, that better be one hell of a strong feeling you had. Hird retired last year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kewell Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Hawthorn should shit it in tonight. Last week they played in extremely windy conditions and held on for a gritty two point win over Sydney. Now they face Carlton indoors. Last time these two met here... Hawks won by 100 points. And no Buddy Franklin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Hey Ash, On what I saw last night, what odds do you think we get for the Doggies for the spoon? ;) Melbourne got beat by Richmond yesterday, Henry. There's your answer right there. :spank Got a feeling Ashtee was being sarcastic, Kewell... ...Gotta be an easier way to make me 15 cents though. :rollin I can also assure you conditions were FAR from windy last week. Seriously. Don't really remember it looking all that bad on tv, but living within 5 k's of the ground I had no trouble with keeping my boxers on the clothes line ;) I'm on the Blues @ 2.30. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Jr Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Might have another contender for the Spoon after tonights effort :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kewell Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup I'm on the Blues @ 2.30. :hope That first quarter should sort out all the dillusional carlton supporters.... any word on freo v adelaide??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BURNTUA CRISP Posted February 26, 2008 Share Posted February 26, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Interesting weekend just passed, and some interesting odds on offer to win the NAB Cup. Adelaide $3.25 (Centrebet, IASBET) St.Kilda $3.40 (Betfair) Hawthorn $4.50 (Betfair) Essendon $4.60 (SportingBet) Hawthorn's awful record at AAMI leads me to thinking the Crows should qualify for the Grand Final. The Crows have a 6 goal advantage up their sleeve over Essendon and St.Kilda, to get the home advantage in the Grand Final. The Semi Final at Telstra Dome revolves around the fitness of Nick Riewoldt. With Koschitzke, Hudghton and Gehrig missing, the Bombers wont have a better opportunity to beat the Saints. My ratings seem to be holding up pretty well getting 9 winners for 12 games. I've been betting the best rated teams at level stakes, and even if I don't get another winner, I've locked in a nice profit already. I'm wondering whether to use to the proceeds to back Adelaide and Essendon to win the NAB Cup in the day or so before the teams are announced. Some input from my learned friends would be appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 26, 2008 Share Posted February 26, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Interesting to see how Hawthorn go if they don't butcher the match like Fremantle did. I feel they've got their scratchy one (v Syd) out of the way, so although I'm another a little skeptical that they will take the next step this season, I feel Crows won't have things handed to them like the first two weeks. Also, Freo midfield (without Hasleby) seemed fully extended by Adelaide's wheras Hawks have plenty to throw at them. I'm thinking this looms as about evens. The other game looms at about evens to me or maybe Essendon slight favourite. Want to see those squads though. Haven't got around to framing market myself yet, sorry BC, but if Hawks are evens chance this week they'd have to be considered no longer than evens for projected GF, then anything above 4.00 is overs IMO. Just hope they don't spoil the GF by taking it to those windy surrounds of Tassie, though. Ash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BURNTUA CRISP Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Ratings for NAB Cup Semi Finals. Telstra Dome on Friday night. St.Kilda (458) $1.70 Fav. Inclusions - Riewoldt, Hayes, Harvey, Ball, King, Schneider. Sidelined - Koschitzke, Goddard, Maguire, Hudghton, Gehrig, R.Clarke, Dempster. Essendon (475) $2.15 Inclusions - Dempsey, Johns. Sidelined - Lloyd, Fletcher, McPhee, Lovett, Lovett-Murray, Winderlich, Welsh, Dyson, Gumbleton. There is no logical match up for Riewoldt who should have a big night if he is fully fit. Sam Fisher should take Lucas, but both defences look light on. The Bombers leg speed will worry the Saints, but St.Kilda's midfield looks way too classy. It should be a good game, but the Saints should advance. AAMI Stadium on Saturday night. Adelaide (407) $1.63 Fav. Inclusions - Burton, Shirley. Sidelined - Bassett, Hentschel, Biglands, Gill, Jericho. Hawthorn (498) $2.20 Inclusions - Roughead, Ladson, Guerra, Croad, Dew. Sidelined - Crawford, Brown, Sewell, Bateman, McGlynn. I'm expecting Hawthorn to rest one of their KPP for this game, whether it be Roughead, Franklin or Gilham. The Hawks midfield lacks the depth to compete with Adelaide's rotations. Adelaide will rely on their gun midfielders to fill the void up forward to kick a winning score, but Hawthorn's defence has been miserly so far in the NAB Cup. I expect the Crows to win by 4 or 5 goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Thought Bassett was an in (unlesss news thru he's out?)? I see the markets on these two matches as about right, although if Hawks got out to over 2.60 I'd be interested (currently 2.45). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Got on at 2.79 just before game. Feel this even money at HT (Haw 2.35 Global). Crows look like starting to doubt themselves a touch off an easy time of it so far in cup. "as they say, never fight naked unless your in prison" - Cometti :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Not related to the NAB but I was just wondering if you had framed the Coleman market Ash, specifically Mark Williams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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