madnesstiger Posted February 5, 2008 Author Share Posted February 5, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Hi Tommy, Thanks for your question also. If I were to lose my next 6 selections for example, I would be back to where I started from, with my £100 starting bank, as I am ready to start my 2 attempts at level 2. If i lost more attempts in a row, I would just keep going back a level until I won again. (see previous posts) If I were to lose 4 or 5 attempts in a row from the starting bank, I would carry on as normal even though my bank would be down to £50/60. From there, my staking may alter slightly in as much as I would try to ensure I at least got my bank back upto £100 before progressingthrough the levels as normal. However.. I will tackle that problem should I come to it! :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy_de1st Posted February 5, 2008 Share Posted February 5, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Hopefully it`s not gonna happen wish you not to lose more than 1 Thanks for response Good luck with your system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 5, 2008 Author Share Posted February 5, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Cheers Tommy.. I'll let luck lead the way - and see what it brings! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 7, 2008 Author Share Posted February 7, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Weekend: Friday 8th - Monday 11th February 2008 Here's the shortlist of matches for this weekends fixture list (ratings / odds): EPL: Everton vs Reading (21 / 1.53) EL1: Tranmere vs Leyton Orient (22 / 1.80) EL2: Bradford vs Bury (21 / 1.80) EL2: Darlington vs Barnet (22 / 1.61) EL2: Peterborough vs Wrexham (22 / 1.57) SPL: Rangers vs Falkirk (26 / 1.20 - too low!) SD2: Ayr vs Peterhead (21 / 2.15) SD3: Montrose vs Dumbarton (20 / 1.50) SD3: East Fife vs Stenhousmuir (20 / 1.40) TUR: Galatasaray vs Manispor (30 / 1.25 - too low!) TUR: Ankaraspor vs Kasimpasa (25 / 1.45) Will wait until I have read some previews tomorrow before making my final selection of 3, but looking good so far are Everton, Tranmere, Bradford, Peterborough, Montrose and Ankaraspor. Any thoughts or inside info?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted February 7, 2008 Share Posted February 7, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Again another nice write up. Have a look in Uk & Irish football section for any info about your teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 7, 2008 Author Share Posted February 7, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Cheers for that Kev, haven't noticed that section before - been too busy geeking around with the spreadsheets and fixture lists! Still... if it's all in the quest to make money, then why not :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josha007 Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Definately include Everton and Peterborough in the treble Madness.I would back Peterborough against anyone at home in the division at the moment,they score for fun and 1.57 looks a great price.I would say that Darlington should be your third pick.They have only lost once at home all season, conceding 8 in 14 games.I'll be picking those 3 this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 8, 2008 Author Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles The three matches chosen for this weekends treble are as follows: Saturday 9th February 2008 EPL: EVERTON vs Reading [15:00] Match Rating: 21 Home Odds: 1.53 (Bet365) Everton one of the in-form teams in the Premiership, whilst Reading have lost all 6 of their last 6 top-flight matches. Reading looking relegation places in the face. Whilst Everton have a few players missing, so too have Reading. ENG LGE 1: TRANMERE ROVERS vs Leyton Orient [15:00] Match Rating: 22 Home Odds: 1.80 (Bet365) Tranmere have good recent record with a noteable away victory over Leeds United. They have plenty of good attacking players available for this match and hopefully this point will help Tranmere simply score more goals than The O's. ENG LGE 2: BRADFORD vs Bury [15:00] Match Rating: 21 Home Odds: 1.80 (Bet365) Bury in awful form of late, whilst Bradford are enjoying a great run of results. Not much in terms of players available, although Bradford do have their Jamaican international winger, Omar Daley back from suspension. Staking Level: Attempt 1 @ Level 2 Current Bankroll: £139.97 Stake: £19.97 Combined Odds: 4.96 New Bankroll: £120.00 Potential Returns: £99.24 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 8, 2008 Author Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Josha, Forgot to mention, thanks for the reply. Would have backed Peterborough, but the price was just that little bit too low. Good luck with your treble mate. got a sneaky suspision that Everton will spoil it for us, now that everyone seems to be backing them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josha007 Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Dont worry Madness,you;ll be fine.Reading are playing attrocious at the moment and they just cant score.That will make it even more difficult against an already tight defence such as Evertons.Reading dont have Ingamarsson playing either which is an additional bonus.I never back Bradford anymore,they are one of my bogey teams,them and Wolves.They always seem to lose whenever i back them.But as you suggest Bury are rubbish of late.I hope they win for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluemoon Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles The odds for Tranmere(-0.50) AH are 1.875 and for Bradford(-0.50) AH are 1.825.So the combined odds for the treble are 5.24. These odds for AH are also from Bet365. Cheers!:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles The three matches chosen for this weekends treble are as follows: Saturday 9th February 2008 EPL: EVERTON vs Reading [15:00] Match Rating: 21 Home Odds: 1.53 (Bet365) Everton one of the in-form teams in the Premiership, whilst Reading have lost all 6 of their last 6 top-flight matches. Reading looking relegation places in the face. Whilst Everton have a few players missing, so too have Reading. ENG LGE 1: TRANMERE ROVERS vs Leyton Orient [15:00] Match Rating: 22 Home Odds: 1.80 (Bet365) Tranmere have good recent record with a noteable away victory over Leeds United. They have plenty of good attacking players available for this match and hopefully this point will help Tranmere simply score more goals than The O's. ENG LGE 2: BRADFORD vs Bury [15:00] Match Rating: 21 Home Odds: 1.80 (Bet365) Bury in awful form of late, whilst Bradford are enjoying a great run of results. Not much in terms of players available, although Bradford do have their Jamaican international winger, Omar Daley back from suspension. Staking Level: Attempt 1 @ Level 2 Current Bankroll: £139.97 Stake: £19.97 Combined Odds: 4.96 New Bankroll: £120.00 Potential Returns: £99.24 :hope:hope:hope Good Luck for the weekend Mate :ok:hope I guess plenty of followers now 900+ views Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 8, 2008 Author Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles BlueMoon, Already placed bet at 4.96 with Bet365, never thought of checking the AH prices for -0.5.. excellent that you mentioned it though, definately worth checking before future selections. Thanks! Kev, Over 900 views.. in a week.. all you're going to do at this rate is make me feel guilty if they lose! :rollin Good luck anyone who's followed my selections.. or any treble form the list. Thanks. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace123 Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles hey madness, got another question about ur model. you've mentioned in an earlier post that the number of matches with a 70% or more strike rate has gone up from 304 to 463 matches. i'm assuming you mean that the 70% strike rate is for home wins only?? the 463 matches that you've quoted, is that 463 matches from one season? ok another way to put my question above - for the season 2006/2007, how matches are there with a 70% or more strike rate? i just want to compare your total no. of matches with a strike rate of above 70% with what my model is spitting out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 8, 2008 Author Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Hi Ace, Good question, here's your answer (i hope!)...I have a spreadsheet dedicated to each division. Each spreadsheet contains a different 'tab' for each season since 01/02. The final tab of each spreadsheet is the 'results' page, which contains all the graphs and tallys of the ratings from ALL rated matches in that division since 01/02. Since the ratings work on the form of the past 4-7 home or away matches, the ratings don't really start until around November time, so therefore, in the EPL, around 120 games per season are not rated. I have a tally chart which splits the match ratings into groups (down the left-hand column) (e.g. 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36+). The chart then tells me how many games were rated between 21-25 for example, how many of these were home wins, draws, away wins, and then the same data, but as a percentage (which is the column which creates the graph). An example row might read:Rating 21-25 ¦ Games 34 ¦ Home Wins 26 ¦ Draws 6 ¦ Away Wiins 2 ¦ % home wins 76.5% ¦ draws 17.6% ¦ away wins 5.9%From this, I am only really interested (for now!) about the % home wins for each ratings group. As I said, these create the graph for each division. Say the % home wins for one particular division (over the past 6 seasons) reads:Rating 36+ ¦ games 13 ¦ h.wins 11 ¦ draws 2 ¦ a.wins 0 ¦ home% 84.6% Rating 31-35 ¦ games 33 ¦ h.wins 29 ¦ draws 3 ¦ a.wins 1 ¦ home% 87.9% Rating 26-30 ¦ games 73 ¦ h.wins 51 ¦ draws 14¦ a.wins 8 ¦ home% 69.9% My 70%+ strike rate for this particular division is a total of 46 games, as I do not include the 73 games rated 26-30, as this has only a strike-rate of 69.9% (very close though!). I have identicle tables for each division, and to acheive the 463 matches with a strike rate of 70%+, I carry out the same calculation as just described for each division, and add up all the games whose ratings have a home win % of 70% or more. When I first made the spreadsheets I only managed 304 games, but after tweaking the formulas, reached 463 from the same results data. Therefore I have more possible selections every week which have home win strike rates of more than 70%. Obviously, the more league covered, the more matches you are going to find with ratings over 20 for example. At the minute, my data covers 9 divisions. So therefore:463 / 6.4 (rough estimate of seasons covered) = 72.3 matches per season. This works out at approx 3 matches per week. Remember though, alot of these highly rated matches have extremely low bookies odds!I hope this answers your question - would be a whole lot easier to explain if you could see the screen in front of me! Would be interested to hear what results you are acheiving. I have tried a few similar, simpler ratings systems before, but I find this one is more configurable for each division. One more point, before I bore you too much.. To help pick some games (which helps answer why I didn't pick Peterborough in this weekends selections) I check a different rating as well as the match ratings as described throughout this thread. The spreadsheet gives a 'Form Points Difference' rating, which works as follows:The home team is given points based on their past 6 home games in the same way as in the league: 3 pts for win, 1 pt for draw, 0 pts for loss. The away team is given points based on their past 6 away games as follows: 5 pts for win, 2 pts for draw, 0 pts for loss. The rating is: (Home Team Form Points) - (Away Team Form Points) Theoretically, the higher the better to help pick home winners!That's All Folks, Thanks for listening! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace123 Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles hello mate, im actually building a logistic model and then decided to try out a ratings model and do something similar to what you've done. my ratings models is still under construction. however, my logistic model has produced some interesting results. for the season 2006/2007, i have selected 6 divisions and home wins with a probability of 66% and above produces a home strike rate of 71% over 144 matches. ie. it accurately predicts 102 home wins out of 144. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 8, 2008 Author Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Sounds impressive mate. Would be good to see the finished product, maybe compare ideas here and there for improvements. I am always tinkering with my spreadsheets here and there when I get the time and will, hopefully, be able to produce some more accurate results from my data as time goes by. But, as long as my trebles come in, I'll be happy enough with what I've got! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 9, 2008 Author Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Well.. it just wasn't to be today :eyes Todays results: Level 2 Treble: Everton 1:0 Reading :D Tranmere 1:1 Leyton Orient :sad Bradford 1:2 Bury :sad Current Financial Situation: Initial Bankroll: £100.00 Stake This Bet: £19.97 Returns This Bet: £0.00 New Bankroll: £120.00 Overall Profit/Loss: +20.0% Next Bet: Attempt 2 at Level 2 Stake: £20.00 Other Matches From Shortlist: EL2: Darlington vs Barnet (22 / 1.61) :) EL2: Peterborough vs Wrexham (22 / 1.57) :eyes SPL: Rangers vs Falkirk (26 / 1.20 - too low!) :) SD2: Ayr vs Peterhead (21 / 2.15) :eyes SD3: Montrose vs Dumbarton (20 / 1.50) :) SD3: East Fife vs Stenhousmuir (20 / 1.40) :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josha007 Posted February 9, 2008 Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Unlucky today Madness,you were really in with a chance with 5 minutes to go, then Orient and Bury muck it all up!Cant believe that Peterborough never even scored, that must be the first time this season.No worries though, another chance at this level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 9, 2008 Author Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Yeah, I noticed Peterborough failed to score also - was a little wary of that match I must admit though. Like you said, 5 minutes to go, and I was mentally urging Bradford to score a winner... then it went totally downhill from there! Never mind, another bite at the Level 2 cherry I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluemoon Posted February 9, 2008 Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Let'go on the next one!:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted February 9, 2008 Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Never mind today mate. not to be. I posted in the uk footy section for Peterboro to be a draw. the last 5 out of 6 meetings were all draws onto midweek or next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 11, 2008 Author Share Posted February 11, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles There's quite a few English league games this week (mainly Tuesday), so why not go for a treble! I've carried out the wizardry on Excel and come up with Tuesdays 3 selections: Tuesday 12th February 2008 ECH: CRYSTAL PALACE vs IPSWICH TOWN [20:00] Match Rating: 22 Home Odds: 2.00 (Bet365) Both teams have minor team news ahead of the game, but nothing sticks out as such. Ipswich have awful away record in Championship. Neck and neck in terms of league position, but with the home advantage and a better defence rating in recent matches, I think Palace can snatch this one. ENG LGE 1: LEYTON ORIENT vs CREWE [19:45] Match Rating: 19 Home Odds: 1.72 (Bet365) Orient were one of the losing teams from the last treble, so hopefully, they can win one for me on the own soil. Whilst the O's may have a few key players back from injury, Crewe have strikers unavailable as well as a few late fitness tests. ENG LGE 1: HARTLEPOOL vs PORT VALE [19:45] Match Rating: 13 (Backed up with good secondary ratings) Home Odds: 1.66 (Bet365) Although they have a few players missing, I think Hartlepool can keep up their good home form this season with a victory over bottom-placed Port Vale (who, incidentally have a poor away record). Staking Level: Attempt 2 @ Level 2 Current Bankroll: £120.00 Stake: £20.00 Combined Odds: 5.75 New Bankroll: £100.00 Potential Returns: £115.16 :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josha007 Posted February 11, 2008 Share Posted February 11, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles They look 3 solid bets for tomorrow night Madness.All the away teams are awful away from home and should get a thumping.The only other team i would back tomorrow night are West Brom, again on the basis that Sheff Utd are so poor away from Brammall Lane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josha007 Posted February 12, 2008 Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Damn,Port Vale are 2-0 up after 15 mins!!I dont think they have scored 2 goals away from home all season!!Hartlepool do score a lot at home but they need to in bucket loads tonight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy_de1st Posted February 13, 2008 Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Backing Leyton Orient is never solid, they`re weak like skinny milk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callpane Posted February 26, 2008 Share Posted February 26, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Hi madness, just hoping to see some of your picks soon, this thread (like fleet fanatics over the past few seasons) could turn out to be a moneyspinner. keep up the good work mate.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 8, 2008 Share Posted March 8, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Hi madness' date=' just hoping to see some of your picks soon, this thread (like fleet fanatics over the past few seasons) could turn out to be a moneyspinner. keep up the good work mate..[/quote'] Here, here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Thought i would bump this old thread. :) What happened MT? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted September 14, 2008 Author Share Posted September 14, 2008 Re: MadnessTrebles Thought i would bump this old thread. :) What happened MT? Thought something was strange when I flicked over to this forum, and saw 'MadnessTrebles' was way up the pecking order! Cheers HLV! :) I will need to re-read some of these old threads of mine soon, to gain some past thoughts which may have been forgotten as the passing months and endless 'GloryHunts' have gone by. I realise I've been away from the forums for a little while now (about a week!), but I am working on further ratings models as I speak. As with older models, I am backtesting my findings against various leagues' past results to see if it's worth preaching to you lot! :lol Nothings been 'tested' as yet, but I am looking at various methods of Power Ratings, ELO Ratings, AQB Ratings and some more 'simpler' ratings systems with a view to maybe combining a few in an attempt to find a more successful prediction model. MT :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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