Monty Hall Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Right, i been doing this for a while and been pretty successful, well over 80%, but as you know, failing these Lay bets can be pretty painful as they carry a hefty liability fine, so this is recommended to the wealthier punters among us that can afford this type of bets. be careful! Lay draw picks for Wednesday July 18th AFC Saudi Arabia vs Baharain Malasya vs Iran Denmark SAS Ligaen AGF vs AC Horsens Esbjerg fB vs Brøndby IF Fifa PAG U-17 Jamaica vs Argentina Honduras vs Ecuador Uefa Champions League Qualification Pobeda vs Levadia Tallinn Dudelange vs Zilina Marsaxlokk FC vs FK Sarajevo Domzale vs KF Tirana EURO U-19 Russia vs Serbia Austria vs Greece Ukraine 1. Division Chernomorets O. vs FC Kharkiv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Hi Monty, Can you give some details on the selection method? Why is it called the monty hall paradox lay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted July 18, 2007 Author Share Posted July 18, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Cheers PAULM03, Monty Hall paradox is best explaned here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_Paradox In short it means that when confronted with 3 options similar to a 1X2, once a punter has made a choice for example 1, and then told that somehow one of the two remaining options is a certain false for exmaple X, than theres a 2/3 probability he'll succeed if he switches he's pick to the remaining option: 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) i understand MH mate, but surely there is no 'false' in football. each event (1x2) has some chance of happening? are you saying your system is 'pick your second favourite bet from 1x2 in a game' ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted July 18, 2007 Author Share Posted July 18, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Hey muppet77, No, indeed the system is my own.. But you got the MH principal, i use lots of statistics.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) ? ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vabanque Posted July 18, 2007 Share Posted July 18, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Cheers PAULM03, In short it means that when confronted with 3 options similar to a 1X2, once a punter has made a choice for example 1, and then told that somehow one of the two remaining options is a certain false for exmaple X, than theres a 2/3 probability he'll succeed if he switches he's pick to the remaining option: 2. Well, if the draw is a certain false... of course I would lay it. The question remains how to know that one of the options is a false :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted July 19, 2007 Author Share Posted July 19, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Turns out matches in Brazil were played after all so my total is 14/15 U-19 Austria - Greece 1:1 From what i posted in this forum 12/13 :ok Well' date=' if the draw is a certain false... of course I would lay it. The question remains how to know that one of the options is a false :unsure[/quote'] Aaahh well, that's the big secret isnt it :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted July 19, 2007 Author Share Posted July 19, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Looking through all of yesterdays results there weren't too many draws, only 4 actually. Three in the Under 19 and one in the CL qualifiers Derry v Yerevan match. I still picked the Austria v Greece match not to draw, now i consider myself to be unlucky.. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted July 19, 2007 Share Posted July 19, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Admin note: if you copy & paste from other locations you need to remove the link references as they show up here as errors. this is recommended to the wealthier punters among us that can afford this type of bets You anticipate losing then ? Well, if the draw is a certain false... of course I would lay it. The question remains how to know that one of the options is a false Aaahh well, that's the big secret isnt it No problem keeping the selection method to yourself but then the Glory Hunters Forum is the more appropriate Forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted July 19, 2007 Author Share Posted July 19, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Right, sorry then for posting in the wrong thread, but glory is not what im after, i know i can help people. No, i dont expect to lose but it happens dont it?!, they dont have to be rich but loosing a lay liability can be very very painful and you sometimes need to put in 10 times your stake, and punters need cash handy to take it.. Admin note: if you copy & paste from other locations you need to remove the link references as they show up here as errors. You anticipate losing then ? No problem keeping the selection method to yourself but then the Glory Hunters Forum is the more appropriate Forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted July 19, 2007 Author Share Posted July 19, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Right, today i cant reiterate this enough, be extra extra careful. Lay draw picks for Thursday July 19th UCup Qualification Dinamo Tbilisi v Vaduz Vojvodina v Hibernians MyPa v EB/ Streymur FK Aktobe v Mattersburg Metalurgs Liepaja v Dinamo Brest Buducnost Podgorica v Hajduk Split Brazil Campeonato Goias v Gremio Palmeiras v Santos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted July 20, 2007 Author Share Posted July 20, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) 5/8 Not good Lay draw picks for Friday July 20th Austria T-Mobile Bundesliga Sturm Graz v LASK Linz Croatia 1. NHL Inter Zapresic v Rijeka Hungary Borsodi League Vasas v Tatabanya Zalaegerszeg v Paks Irish Eircom Premier League Waterford v Sligo Rovers Irish 1st Div. Finn Harps v Shelbourne Limerick 37 v Athlone Russia Premier Liga Dinamo Moscow v Amkar Slovakia Corgon Liga Senec v FC Nitra Slovenia Prva Liga Interblock Ljubljana v Nafta Ukraine Vischya Liga Tavriya v Karpaty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted July 21, 2007 Author Share Posted July 21, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Russia Premier Liga Dinamo Moscow v Amkar 0:0 10/11 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted July 21, 2007 Author Share Posted July 21, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Lay draw picks for Saturday July 21st AFC Vietnam v Iraq (2) Brazil America RN v Atletico PR (1) Juventude RS v Internacional RS (1) Vasco RJ v Atletico MG (1) Croatia 1. NHL Cibalia v Varteks (2) Medjimurje v Zagreb (2) Dinamo Zagreb v Sibenik (1) Denmark SAS Ligaen Brondby v Nordsjaelland (1) Germany Liga Pokal Schalke v Karlsruhe (1) Werder Bremen v Bayern (2) Hungary - Borsodi League Nyiregyhaza v Gyori (2) Kaposvar v FC Sopron (1) Siófok v Ujpest (2) UEFA IC Chernomorets O v Lens (2) Cherno More v Sampdoria (1) Dacia Chisinau v Hamburg (2) Gloria Bistrita v Atl Madrid (2) Otelul Galati v Trabzonspor (1) Rapid Vienna v Rubin Kazan (1) Ireland Eircom Bohemians v Derry (1) Ireland 1st Div. Kildare v Monaghan Utd (2) Kilkenny v Dundalk (2) Wexford Youths v Cobh Ramblers (1) Norway Division 1 Molde Lov Ham (1) Norway Tippeligaen Sandefjord v Lyn (2) Russia Premiera Liga FK Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov (1) Saturn v Tomsk ? Slovakia Corgon Liga Dubnica v Ruzomberok Trencin v Banska Bystrica Trnava v Kosice Slovenia Prva Liga Publikum v Primorje Sweden Allsvenskan Djurgarden v Elfsborg (1) Switzerland Challenge League Schaffhausen v Concordia Wil v SC Cham Lugano v Bellinzona Yverdon v Lausanne Switzerland Super League Luzern v Xamax Ukraine Vyscha Liga FC Kharkov v Dnipro Naftovik-Ukrnafta v Shakhtar Donetsk I actually believe there will be a draw in these matches Russia Premiera Liga Spartak Moscow v Zenit Finland - Veikkausliga Jaro FF v VPS Vaasa Phew, thats a lot, BOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted July 21, 2007 Author Share Posted July 21, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) Forgot to add the Lay draw the FIFA Under-19 Austria v Portugal Spain v Greece Serbia v Germany Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Hall Posted July 21, 2007 Author Share Posted July 21, 2007 Re: Monty Hall Paradox Lay (Draw) 28/41 that's a little over 68%. On an equal stake investment this makes a 38% loss. The disappointment is the Irish leagues, 3 goals in only 2 of the 5 matches played for reasons unknown to me.. Wexford Youths 0-0 (0-0) Cobh Ramblers Bohemians 0-0 (0-0) Derry City Longford Town 1-0 (0-0) UCD Dublin Kildare County 1-1 (0-0) Monaghan Utd Kilkenny City 0-0 (0-0) Dundalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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