What to shove with?

[slapdash]

I've read several good players saying that when they're short stacked in a tournament, they'd rather shove with a hand like 86 than a hand like A6, because if they're called then they're unlikely to be dominated (exact hands vary). Is anybody else convinced by this? It's true that if I'm called by a big ace, then I'd rather have 86 than A6. But against most other hands that are likely to call, A6 is a lot better. And if I have A6, then it's less likely that they'll have a big ace, since I have one of the four aces. Thoughts?

[GaF]

Re: What to shove with? Just had a very quick play on Pokerstove ..... There is a big gap between the chance of winning with A6 v 86 in all scenarios I can manufacture .... Even against 2 opponents, both only playing top 20% of hands, you are far better with A6 than 86 ...... I'm surprised - I'd have said situations could be manufactured where 86 was better.....

[aimar21]

Re: What to shove with? 8-6 is losing to almost every hand that is gonna call. A-6 is way better since people might also call with KQ, KJ etc. Besides people will call you more if they see you shove with a hand like 6-8 which you won't like of course.. But maybe they're correct I might try that sometime..

[AJ]

Re: What to shove with? short stacked in a tourney, a big stack may call you with just about anything, I agree, 8 6 is better in this situation than A-6, many people will call you with Ace-Rag, at least this way you've got two chances to pair and win. I had a short stack call me in a cash game at the casino Friday night, He went all in for $39, I had KK, instead of calling, I reraised all in for $200, got one more caller. Orginal caller beat me with a straight and tripled up, but the $161 I made from the other caller in the side pot made up for that :ok I know I'm going off topic a bit here, but in casinos, does the house rake always come from the main pot only ? In this case, the main pot lost $10 to rake, but my much much larger side pot was untouched. Is this normal ??

[Jaded]

Re: What to shove with? I'm guessing 86 could be thought of as having an advantage because people are probably likely to call with A rag if you're shortstacked - if you have 86 vs AK vs AQ, things look a hell of a lot better than A6 vs AK vs AQ, for example.

[Dodger]

Re: What to shove with? Think Jaded's last point hits the button for me. If you are on a full table and short stacked and you are all in with less than double the big blind...then you may well have two or three callers rather than just one. With three callers I would much prefer to be on 68 than A6, simply because they stand a decent chance of holding each others needed cards.

[GaF]

Re: What to shove with? But if you compare 86 in pokerstove against A6 for the top x% of hands (which also includes all suited rag ace hands if top 23% of hands and all aces for top 43% of hands) then 86 is not ahead of A6 in any situation (even with multiple opponents).... Prior to this thread, I would have argued the case for 86, but looking at the numbers, it just doesn't hold up.....

[robilaruk]

Re: What to shove with? I think the arguement lies in the fact that with 86 you can hit a straight as well as a pair - yes you lose out to the high card (Ace) but have other possibilities the problem is that with A6 is that is someone does call with another Ace (A8+) you are a 70% dog - the value of shoving an Ace is if they call without an Ace or Pair, in which case you are ahead If I am sort stacked and someone raises before me, I would rather call with 86 than A6 and gamble (hoping to get HU of course)- however if I am the one shoving I would rather shove A6 than 86 - its situation dependent for me - suprisingly 86 has 25% more equity against A8+ than A6 does! cheers Damo Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 123,285,888 games 0.047 secs 2,623,104,000 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 28.513% 23.27% 05.24% 28688937 6463692.00 { Ac6s } Hand 1: 71.487% 66.24% 05.24% 81669567 6463692.00 { A8s+, A8o+ } 1,890,383,616 games 0.015 secs 126,025,574,400 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 35.032% 34.68% 00.35% 655678452 6558420.00 { 86o } Hand 1: 64.968% 64.62% 00.35% 1221588324 6558420.00 { A8s+, A8o+ }

[GaF]

Re: What to shove with? I dont think there are many who would call with A8o, but fold KQs against a small stack are there. Totally accept that if people are only calling with Aces, then you are better off with 86, but I think it's unrealistic to consider someones range to only be hands with Aces in it....

[robilaruk]

Re: What to shove with?

I dont think there are many who would call with A8o, but fold KQs against a small stack are there. Totally accept that if people are only calling with Aces, then you are better off with 86, but I think it's unrealistic to consider someones range to only be hands with Aces in it....

I agree, but that wasn't the point of my post - I was trying to show the difference between calling with 86 vs A6 if someone else has an ace, and why pro's say they would rather have 86 to call with, because if someone is raising with an Ace, you are really struggling (rather than just struggling!!) Its the calling that is the key, not the shoving - so call with 86 to a big stack raise, but shove with A6 if you are first in the pot make sense? Damo

[slapdash]

Re: What to shove with? But everybody arguing in favour of 86 just seems to be saying "If they call you with an ace ...". What if they call you without an ace? Then A6 is almost always better. And GaF's pokerstove experiments seem to suggest that, overall, A6 is more likely to win when you're called. And something that the pokerstove experiments don't take into account is that if you have an ace, then your opponents are less likely to have a good hand, and so you are less likely to be called at all, especially by one of the hands that do better against A6 than against 86. I didn't do the calculation very carefully, but I make it that if you have 86 then each opponent is about 9/8 times as likely to have a top 20% hand than if you have A6. And with 86 you are twice as likely to come up against two opponents with AK and AQ as you would be with A6.

[GaF]

Re: What to shove with?

With three callers I would much prefer to be on 68 than A6, simply because they stand a decent chance of holding each others needed cards.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 49,773,104 games 193.047 secs 257,828 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 19.333% 19.12% 00.21% 9518941 103718.50 { 8c6d } Hand 1: 26.889% 25.51% 01.38% 12696497 687326.17 { 66+, A4s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } Hand 2: 26.890% 25.51% 01.38% 12697220 686887.83 { 66+, A4s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } Hand 3: 26.888% 25.51% 01.38% 12695504 687663.00 { 66+, A4s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 10,514,617 games 142.719 secs 73,673 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 17.392% 16.02% 01.37% 1684596 144081.50 { Ac6d } Hand 1: 27.534% 26.06% 01.47% 2740028 155084.17 { 66+, A4s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } Hand 2: 27.543% 26.06% 01.48% 2740612 155417.50 { 66+, A4s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } Hand 3: 27.532% 26.05% 01.48% 2739444 155468.83 { 66+, A4s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } Against 3 opponents, with a fairly tight range, 86 comes out on top of A6 :ok

[slapdash]

Re: What to shove with?

Against 3 opponents' date= with a fairly tight range, 86 comes out on top of A6 :ok

Although you're significantly less likely to have three opponents with hands in that range if you have A6.

[robilaruk]

Re: What to shove with? maybe we are confusing calling with shoving I am the short stack - I would rather call with 86 than A6 to a big stack raise if I believe I can get HU I am the short stack, i would rather shove A6 if first into the pot, rather than 86 I am the big stack, I would rather call with A6 than 86 to a shortie shove and thats what the pro's 'mean' about 86 vs A6 just my thoughts Damo

But everybody arguing in favour of 86 just seems .

[Dodger]

Re: What to shove with? I find 68 in front of A6 with easy selections:

[GaF]

Re: What to shove with?

I find 68 in front of A6 with easy selections:

But that's against very specific hands - you cannot put people on such exact hands .... it needs to be a range, which will include some aces.... For example - this does not provide proof that you should be shoving with 23o.....even though you are favourite.... Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 850,668 games 0.005 secs 170,133,600 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 53.066% 52.92% 00.14% 450195 1220.60 { 3d2c } Hand 1: 11.522% 00.81% 10.71% 6931 91083.10 { AcQd } Hand 2: 11.518% 00.81% 10.71% 6895 91083.10 { AdQh } Hand 3: 11.947% 01.24% 10.71% 10547 91083.10 { AhQs } Hand 4: 11.947% 01.24% 10.71% 10547 91083.10 { AsQc }

[Dodger]

Re: What to shove with?

For example - this does not provide proof that you should be shoving with 23o.....even though you are favourite....

Point well made. :ok Think I'll sleep on this one before looking at the question again.

[robilaruk]

Re: What to shove with? not exactly linked to this question, however this thread has just popped up, so though I would post the link (thanks Mr Mod:ok for the ok) http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=11205655&an=0&page=0#Post11205655 I know which camp I sit in regarding this, and it appears I am swimming against the tide again :spank Damo

[GaF]

Re: What to shove with?

Think I'll sleep on this one before looking at the question again.

Do you have pokerstove? It's very good for putting in a range of hands ... top 20%, top 40% etc.... Then you can have a play and try a few different situations (which is what I did, and what partially changed my mind)

[aimar21]

Re: What to shove with? I don't know much about numbers unfortunately but when I'm shoving, I don't want a call and if I have to see one, I don't want to have a hand which is behind to most of the hands like 86. The reason I'm shoving A6 in late position when it's folded to me rather than early position, is because there are less hands after me therefore less chance of a hand dominating my A6. So I don't think about domination before shoving at all. Instead I push and I see people calling with KQ, KT, QJ even JT, 55 and I'm ahead. Of course sometimes they show hands like 99, AK but if I think about that before shoving, I will get blinded out. This might sound silly but if you're so afraid of people calling with any ace, then push with K6 or Q6 instead of 86. At least you would be a small underdog and there would still be some hands worse than yours.

[Dodger]

Re: What to shove with? Had a play around with an odds calculator and it simply does boil down to your opponents holding an ace or aces. So if one or more aces are held by your opponents then it is better to hold 86 than A6. No aces in their hands and you are better off with the A6. You would have to convince yourself that the aces are out there, otherwise it has to be better to just ditch them. Also remember... the aces showing up in your opponents hands does not suddenly make your hand the favourite, just a bit less of an underdog than without the aces. And if you pull it off with your 68 then you will face a disgruntled table that just thinks you are a f**king muppet! with chants of ''Are you Jaded? Are you Jaded?...ARE YOU JADED IN DISGUISE?''.:tongue2 So I am now convinced it must be better to fold and wait than expecting the PokerGods to intervene on your behalf with this dire hand. Also, why the choice of 68??? The same comments seem to apply to just about any two middle connected cards. {Now 69 os is a different thing altogether...I won my first ever 2 hands online with 69 os, so they hold a special place in my poker education. But it took me a full year to stop playing them as starting hands.:eyes }

[Punto Banco]

Re: What to shove with? The thing about it is that you have to consider the advantage gained with A6 if there is no A... that is against random live cards A6 is not that big of a fav and quite easily beaten... with more likely hood of a higher Ace calling you might say an ace will call 40% of calls and any random cards 60% of time... with a pair included prob 10% of that.... of these situations (none include everybody folding) 40% of the time u will be 25%, 10% ull be between 45-30% and 50% of the time ull be approx 60%... giving value to these equals about 44% overall... guess really Now with 86 against over cards you are about 38% which I say will call aprox 80% of the time, 10% pair again will win about 23% (mix of odds of low/higher pairs), and finally under/over card or under cards ud be approx 53%... on this overall ud be about 33% lol this aint at all solid scientific stuff but I think it gives an indication that against 1 caller A6... way 2 go... however id say against 2 callers or more 86 will become more the fancy 2 callers id say theyd both be of similar % and 86 will win more often as the number of callers increases I guess it then comes down 2 how many acting after you then... 1-4 ud have 2 like A6 but then above that perhaps 68 is the way... just some loose thoughts nothing new or outstanding gl all on working this one out...:ok

[GaF]

Re: What to shove with? If you hold a lone A then the chances of someone behind you holding an Ace is: 1 Opponent to act - 15.5% 2 Opponents to act - 28.6% 3 Opponents to act - 39.7% 4 Opponents to act - 49.0% So if you are shoving in late position, the chances are you do not have an opponent with an Ace (And some of those Aces will be smaller aces than yours...)

[slapdash]

Re: What to shove with?

If you hold a lone A then the chances of someone behind you holding an Ace is: 1 Opponent to act - 15.5% 2 Opponents to act - 28.6% 3 Opponents to act - 39.7% 4 Opponents to act - 49.0% So if you are shoving in late position, the chances are you do not have an opponent with an Ace (And some of those Aces will be smaller aces than yours...)

I make the figures slightly smaller than that, assuming the players who've already acted have random hands. But since the players who've already folded would have been more likely to bet with an ace, that slightly increases the chance that the players yet to act have one. It's hard to estimate by how much, since of course it depends on the betting habits of the previous players.

[aimar21]

Re: What to shove with?

If you hold a lone A then the chances of someone behind you holding an Ace is: 1 Opponent to act - 15.5% 2 Opponents to act - 28.6% 3 Opponents to act - 39.7% 4 Opponents to act - 49.0% So if you are shoving in late position, the chances are you do not have an opponent with an Ace (And some of those Aces will be smaller aces than yours...)

this is what I tried to say (without a single number :lol). cheers mate..