Crouch Potato Posted July 21, 2007 Share Posted July 21, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Wish I didn't trade out of the Rasmussen lay so soon. The only thing I can really say is I'm glad I backed Contador, and that I'll be finding some more funds to throw at him before tomorrow's stage starts! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Just one bet for stage 14, he's the favourite and deservedly so IMO. Alberto Contador @ 6.4. He's explosive in the mountains, today is his day to shine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dub Cee Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Well done CP on todays result. Was amazing seeing Contador and Rasmussen destroying the rest of the field as they went up the climb. Rasmussen now odds on for the yellow with 2 more big mountain stages left. He impressed me today matching Contador with every move. What are the thoughts for tomorrow? Maybe Valverde although he seemed to struggle a bit today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Thanks mate. Have come close a number of times now so nice to get one on the board. Very short comparatively but stakes were bigger :) Rasmussen for yellow is a very weird one. Landis last year was evens the very stage before he lost 10mins (we all know what happened the next day). He looks cool though, and with another two mountain stages then it could very well turn out that Contador will be the only contender. Contador is a better time trialist than Rasmussen but I'm not sure he's 2mins better. Still, you wont find me laying off my bet on Contador. Tomorrow's stage looks very difficult with 2 cat. 1 climbs seperated by a Hors Category climb. The Hors Category is a 19.5-kilometre climb that averages a 6.2% grade, with the final 10 kilometres at 8.5%. Then there's a cat 1 climb 11.5km from the finish. It's the type of stage where you'd expect the group to come home together but Contador needs to look to gain a bit more time and the others need to get ahead too. There is a rest day after tomorrow's stage so that may allow riders a bit more freedom to use more energy. Back in Paris-Nice earlier this year Discovery launched an attack on Rebellin and Gerolsteiner which launched Contador to victory - a similar tactic might be used to pick up a bit of time. GC aside there are a number of names which could figure. Valverde as you mentioned though how much freedom he'd be allowed I'm still not sure. Moreau after his ITT I thought was losing time on purpose to try something and today he rode nowhere, so perhaps he is looking to launch an attack tomorrow. In a similar type position is Frank Schleck who had that brilliant win on the Alp D'Huez last year. In summation, I forsee a breakaway, possibly including the likes of Popovych (Polka Dots, Disco tactics), Schleck (Stage Win), Moreau (Stage Win, Polka Dots?), Arroyo and an Euskadel rider like Inaki Isasi. As for the GC riders, I'm not too sure what to expect but I do feel that they all need time on Rasmussen before stage 16 (a mountain top finish where Rasmussen could gain or at least maintain). If there is an attack though, I expect it to be from Discovery, who know how to win this race and have a very strong team. Astana too are a strong team but in all honesty Kloden isn't the type of rider who is capable of attacking, he's a wheel sucker much like Evans. I'll be cheering for a Groundhog day with Contador winning again, but will have to reassess after odds are released. Also as a sidenote is that there could be money to be made in the King of the Mountains Classification. A lot of points on offer tomorrow and Rasmussen isn't in a position to go get them. If a breakaway rider can go ahead he'll be every chance to really move up the classification. Popovych is one such rider who might go ahead as part of Disco's tactics and also to attack the Polka dots. De La Fuente took first in today's first climb and he was in a break last year in a similar stage so perhaps he'll look to attempt something too. PS - Sorry for a lot of jumbled thoughts, my interest is firmly in Contador now and stage wins are a bit of a side thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penelopeys Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 It is going to be very interesting to see Michael Rasmusses in the next 2 mountain stages :) He did surprisingly well in the time trial yesterday, but that was partial because there was a mountain to climb for him :ok ...the next time trial will be more of a hassle for him, but if he can win a few minutes more over the next 2 mountain stages he's a very likely winner... the odds have also gone through the floor now though :\ Fun being Danish these days :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 I have a feeling the weather greatly helped Rasmussen yesterday. He was last out when the track really dried out and whilst there's no doubt he did a great ride and has really improved, I do wonder how significant it was. Over the 7.5km flat prologue Contador was 41 seconds faster than Rasmussen so it could really be tight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penelopeys Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 I have a feeling the weather greatly helped Rasmussen yesterday. He was last out when the track really dried out and whilst there's no doubt he did a great ride and has really improved' date=' I do wonder how significant it was. Over the 7.5km flat prologue Contador was 41 seconds faster than Rasmussen so it could really be tight.[/quote'] Yeah, it was definitely lucky for him that it stopped raining... but the weather was also tolerable for his nearest competitors. Regarding improving at the time trials... you should have seen him 2 years ago...jeeez, that was embarrassing :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 I remember that. Basso went out fast but Armstrong won the stage comfortably. Rasmussen fell 3 times and went from 3rd at the start to finishing I think 7th overall in the tour and was over 7mins down on Armstrong's time trial. Coincidentally that was Contador's first tour too, he rode the time trial 6'16 down on Armstrong and finished 31st overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penelopeys Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 I remember that. Basso went out fast but Armstrong won the stage comfortably. Rasmussen fell 3 times and went from 3rd at the start to finishing I think 7th overall in the tour and was over 7mins down on Armstrong's time trial. Coincidentally that was Contador's first tour too' date= he rode the time trial 6'16 down on Armstrong and finished 31st overall. Some commentator said he was a debutant in the Tour :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penelopeys Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 I remember that. Basso went out fast but Armstrong won the stage comfortably. Rasmussen fell 3 times and went from 3rd at the start to finishing I think 7th overall in the tour and was over 7mins down on Armstrong's time trial. Coincidentally that was Contador's first tour too' date= he rode the time trial 6'16 down on Armstrong and finished 31st overall. Actually... Rasmussen has lost between 6 and 9 mins in ALL his time trials previous to the one yesterday :loon... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albator Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Hello Guys, I have been betting for the last 10 years and been pretty good with US sports but this time i would like to have some action on the Tour de France but no NOTHING about this event... :\:$ I have some lines that coming pretty soon on that event but i dont know or wont see if there are too good to pass up as i dont know "**" about cycling... Could anyone of you be willing to share his thoughts about the match ups and props i can get and see if i should bet on them? Lines arent in yet but here's how it will look like.... Who will be the Top King of Mountains: 1-Rasmussen +200 2- Soler-Hernandez -185 3-Any other +785 Odds to win Tour de France 1-Rasmussen -125 2-Ay other even money Who will be the Sprint Champion: 1-Boonen -405 2-Zabel +485 3-Hunter +1215 Stage 15 Matchup Beltran -135 vs Valjavec +110 Botcharov -135 vs Pineau +110 Contador -180 vs Rasmussen +150 Evans -160 vs Kloden +130 Antoniobil Fischer -110 vs Bennati -110 Popovych -135 vs Boogerd +110 Zubeldia +120 vs Astarloza -150 Sastre -135 vs Leipheimer +110 I know the lines arent there yet but who should i be looking for? I appreciate any help or insights! :ok:notworthy Thanks! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 :welcome to PL Albator. Hope you enjoy it here. I'd say Tom Boonen has the Green Jersey pretty much sewn up. It's hard to see him getting beaten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albator Posted July 22, 2007 Share Posted July 22, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Thanks for tip number 1 ! :clap:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albator Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Odds are coming in... To win stage 15: Contador at 3-1 Soler 5.5 -1 Rasmussen 6-1 Any value there? I have update my post with the lines (edited) above in american odds. Dont know how yours works so i prefer to post with - (favorite) and + (underdog) :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Honestly can't say I like anything you posted, though I do think Popovych will beat Boogert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albator Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Not even Leipheimer as underdog? Too bad those lines arent that good... :zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Leipheimer as an underdog is probably good but I do think he is fairly evenly matched with Sastre. There's a descent after today's final climb so I can't see either escaping the other, except Levi might have to work hard so that Contador can launch an attack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Funny feeling about today's stage (the type of funny feeling you get about your hot cousin you haven't seen in a while :tongue2) I really feel that Euskatel will look for the win today. Txurruka has had 2 breakaways in the past 3 days and I think he wont go today. Perez couldn't climb and was in their [breakaway] yesterday and would have used some energy. The 3 marked riders I have for the win are Astarloza, Zubeldia and Landaluze. Astarloza might be too far up to be released though. Bet List - Stage 15 Win Inigo Landaluze @ 55 [4/10] Haimar Zubeldia @ 65 [1.5/10] Mikel Astraloza @ 95 [0.5/10] David De La Fuente @ 120 [0.5/10] Yaroslav Popovych @ 42 [0.5/10] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albator Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Finally all my lines are updated now... Boonen -405...:( Tha'ts a lot to lay!! :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albator Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 and what about those odds? :unsure David Arroyo Duran +105 Kim Kirchen-115 Michael Boogerd-105 Chris Horner-105 Sandy Casar+400 Juan Manuel Garate-600 Sandy Casar+300 Haimar Zubeldia-500Alberto Contador Velasco-370 Carlos Sastre Candil+340 Thomas Dekker-105 Vladimir Gusev-105 Linus Gerdemann+186 Tadej Valjavec-206 Vladimir Karpets-105 Juan Jose Cobo-105 Andreas Kloden-300 Manuel Beltran+270Iban Mayo+157 Alejandro Valverde-167 Christophe Moreau+360 Alberto Contador Velasco-400 Oscar Pereiro Sio-148 Haimar Zubeldia+138 Michael Rasmussen-152 Cadel Evans+142 Frank Schleck+186 Levi Leipheimer-206 Alejandro Valverde+190 Michael Rasmussen-210 Carlos Sastre+126 Levi Leipheimer-136Sylvain Chavanel-105 George Hincapie-105Francisco Vila-117 Charlie Wegelius+107Patrice Halgand-117 Stephane Goubert+107Alejandro Valverde-110 Andrey Kashechkin+100Alberto Contador-185 Cadel Evans+165 Michael Rasmussen-222 Andreas Kloden+202 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 I don't even understand what that all means Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albator Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 ok... + means underdog i-e if it is +200 you lay 100$ to win 200$ if -200 (means it is the favorite) as you have to lay 200$ to win 100$. Those are head to head match ups for the stage 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albator Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 I have seen Soler at -250 and more for King of the Mountain. I guess that line at -185 is pretty good? :unsure Do you think he will win that one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Hi Albator, probably best to use decimal odds or people won't understand what you're talking about. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albator Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Hi Albator' date=' probably best to use decimal odds or people won't understand what you're talking about. :ok[/quote'] If i could understand it!!! :tongue2 I have been betting with american odds for the last 10+ years and dont understand your lines so that is why i put them the way i'm betting! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkull Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 bummer, and nobody said Vino will win? I think this guy wins TDF this year and GAME OVER!! :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Zubeldia did a good race and ran 3rd, unfortunately that's of no use. Landaluze also managed to make the break but really seemed to disappear. I have to say I really hated living in Australia today. Had I been able to do in-play betting today I could have traded a very nice profit...stupid government. Anyway, rest day tomorrow, then the final mountain stage at the Col D'Aubisque. Discovery will attack Rasmussen, they will attack Rabobank and try to wear him down IMO. I can only hope that the Dane cracks and cracks badly. PS - Stage 16 Winner - Contador, Contador, Contador! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dub Cee Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 I feel your pain CP. I had 3 riders on today only a couple of quid on each at betfair but at pretty big odds............ Kirchen - 2pts @ 75 & 2pts @ 140 Zubeldia - 2pts @ 85 De La Fuente - 4pts @ 120 Unfortunately i was at work all day and couldn't access betfair so no chance to lay off. Not sure what odds were available but still pretty gutting. Onwards and upwards anyway. As you say rest day tomorrow then the final big climb stage. Surely Contador has to attack unless he thinks he can gain the time on the time trial which i doubt. Its going to be an interesting final day in the mountains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Kirchen at one point hit 4s, Zubeldia 7s was lowest, but 8s was a more commonly layable quote. I actually saw Arroyo go off with the first inner break and was at 15s and thought to myself that wont last. Sure enough 5mins later he was into 5s but alas I was powerless to do anything. As for the Time Trial, the first had an uphill portion and then a climb. The 2nd is flat and is seriously going to disadvantage Rasmussen compared to the first. Contador is a better time trialist, but I am not convinced he is 2mins 23s better. Discovery do have a great team though and Rabobank will surely be under pressure from all areas on the final mountain stage. For reference: ITT 1 Upcoming ITT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dub Cee Posted July 23, 2007 Share Posted July 23, 2007 Re: Tour de France 2007 Yep i agree contador is better TT but as you say doubt he's that much better. To be honest i wouldn't be surprised if Contador and his team attacked rasmussen big time on the final mountain stage. Even if he was to gain 45secs - 1min on the yellow that may be enough. Absolutely gutted now that Kirchen was down as low as 4s. Could've locked in a fairly big profit. Never mind i knew i wouldn't manage to lay it off when i placed the bet so no worries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.