AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)

[Kewell]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) People, I cannot stress enough how special the Kangaroos are against Adelaide. You can look at my reasoning from yesterday, but it is the biggest special of the weekend. Daniel Wells is coming back into a team that has won 7/8 only losing to the West Coast Eagles at Subiaco. Pounding the life out of -5.5 @ centrebet: $2.10

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) While I am leaning towards Kangaroos, and will tip them as such, I dont have enough faith to put money onto them, especially not at the margin. I think it will be a very close match and hence am taking the- Either team under 15.5points @ 3.20

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Centrebet 1.30 pm - Carlton $2.25 Hawthorn $1.63 3.00 pm - Carlton $1.97 Hawthorn $1.85 Christmas has come early folks! :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin

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[Punto Banco]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) ... Has anyone got any info on the price change in tonights match... seems odd for such a drastic change without a big reason... i am hesitant to jump on it blind...

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) I'd imagine there's news on Franklin...not sure tho :unsure

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)

Centrebet 1.30 pm - Carlton $2.25 Hawthorn $1.63 3.00 pm - Carlton $1.97 Hawthorn $1.85 Christmas has come early folks! :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin

Your score predictor says Carlton win :unsure

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Yep. Franklin being reported as OUT for tonight...sore back or something. Failed to train. As I said tho, he didn't train last week either... Hodge flu...Boyle and Croad ?? Chris Knights from Adelaide is a bit of a surprise but going very well ...was no. 1. in the AFL for possessions per minute last season, Bjv. ;)

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Kangaroos Under 39.5 @ 2.30 Kangaroos have won seven from their last eight, the only defeat coming to West Coast in Perth, which is no disgrace at all. Their record at Carrara this season is 2-0 with wins over Carlton and Brisbane. I've personally seen Adelaide play this year, and wasn't impressed at all with their performance against Carlton (despite the win). Incredibly, every single one of the Kangaroos wins has been by under 39.5 points this season, so they like the close matches - and this looks like another to me. Adelaide come here on the back of losses to a resurgent Melbourne, and the on-fire Cats, so their form isn't great of late. Kangaroos by 10-20 for me.

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Off to see the mighty Blues now guys, and might have a dabble on Carlton U39.5 at the ground :hope:tongue2

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Carlton actually in to slight favs... ...still don't think they'll win!!...but makes my 1.68 loook pretty sick! :( We can argue forever about the validity of stats, specifically in the Carlton game last week... ...so I'll go on to the Hawthorn game v. Sydney... 48 I50's to 34!!!...Hawthorn's way that is... So what does that tell us? Well, midfield still getting crap loads of it, still playing very well defensively (allow just 46 I50's per game all season...best of teams playing this week!)... ...but a) Sydney defense was on top...b) Sydney's midfield pressure was enormous...c) a combination of a and b! So, in steps Carlton...who just happen to allow the most points in the AFL (Sydney 2nd best)...who are even worse at the dome. Odds being severely boosted (pre-injury news) by 2 wins against two teams who wanted/allowed shoot-outs. This one won't be, because one team can play solid defense...and it ain't Carlton ;) Hopefully Franklin is the only one out...and the rest of the team aren't all under a 'flu cloud... ...'cause really, this game is 3rd v. 13th, and really should pan out that way. Like I said, I took a combination of Kangas under 24.5 and Crows under 24.5, for effectively 1.83. I can't split them! Last 5...Crows 49 I50's for, 49 against...Kangas 52 for, 51 against. Clearances, Kangas +1, Crows -1 Scoring, Crows every 1.95 entry, Kangas 1.91 Defense Kangas 1.96, Crows 2.10...advantage Crows... Actually, Crows rate better away from home this season so far...they play a far freer game style, av. 52 I50's and 51 against...don't score so well, but also play tougher D (2.25) Basically, the stats say that Adelaide warrant slight favouritism...But my numbers show no more than 14 points in it either way, so yeah...the under 15.5 @ 3.10ish does look a solid bet. :ok Take out the last 2 meetings where the Crows have been big favs, the previous 3 results were 7, 10 & 13 points... ...but I took the safe option given the results so far this year. ALL (bar the West Coast game) of the Kangaroos games this year have been decided by 24 points or less!!! :eek (but only 2 under 15!) 8 of the Crows games have stayed within 4 goals. (just 3 under 15) So a combined 18/22 games involving these teams this season have been results under 24.5 points!!! Books can barely split them...I'll take that 1.83 thanks. :tongue2 No idea how successful I'll be at getting the totals I want, but would like Freo/Dogs over 182. :hope Good luck guys. :cheers

[miguel_hamburglar]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) The conditions here in Melbourne town are crap, fog is here a little earlier than was expected, and while the roof at the Dome will be closed it will still get very slippery in there. All of this is points to a Hawks win for me, the Carlton defence has been very ordinary all season and in the conditions I doubt that their forwards minus Betts as a crumbing forward can score big tonight. Sewell should tag Murphy out of the game and I can see Carlton pushing him to half forward again to lose the tag, thus slowing the Carlton midfeild a lot. Hawks are highly motivated as a win will keep them in the top 4 (and I think a lot of teams have learnt a lesson from the Dees last season) and Carlton are a bottom 3 side. Buddy Franklin aside, conditions, motivation and ladder position all point to evens for the Hawks -5.5 being great value. Tis my 2c on the matter. The question is have the Blues turned the corner after 2 wins and are the Hawks a real top 4 team.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Hawks still favourite slightly. Croad may be sent forward. Jacobs, Brown, Smith & co can look after things at other end, hopefully. Felt Adelaide were unlucky to lose last week, finishing game with just one on the bench. No doubt, they haven't been as hot overall.

[Punto Banco]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Hawks sure showed wats wat when it come to blues revival... I bet Jeffers had a cracker @ the G 2nite.... tough break....:ok

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Always have a cracker mate :ok Good job it wasn't at the G enh? Would've been a big boring that I reckon in the dark on my own. Could go on about a result like this, but having thought about it - the best thing I can sum it up with is, Carlton aren't that bad, Hawthorn aren't that good. Results like this, for me, actually make the inevitable future success for Cartlton all the more sweeter. Means we can look back and remember nights like this. As a Carlton supporter, I think you have to expect nights like this, especially against flooding teams like Hawthorn - they smothered and killed the Carlton way of playing early on, and we never recovered from that. Fair play to them for that, but tbh it was pretty awful to watch. On another note, what a crowd. The dome was literally full to the brim, people everywhere - 53,000 I believe :ok On another another note, these 7 comms do my frickin head in :wall "Carlton fans come out whne they start to win" WTF is that comment about? Yeah, 11 wins from 66 :lol

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Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)

On another note, what a crowd. The dome was literally full to the brim, people everywhere - 53,000 I believe :ok

Was an unbelievable crowd mate, the official crowd was 53,459 which is actually the highest crowd for an AFL match at the Telstra dome i believe. This is good news for the AFL, they are starting to get crowds that rival the A-League soccer now which would fill the league with confidence. They still have a fair way to go, but was a great crowd never the less :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)

This is good news for the AFL, they are starting to get crowds that rival the A-League soccer now which would fill the league with confidence. They still have a fair way to go, but was a great crowd never the less :ok

No offense ads...but are you on about??!! :unsure I believe this year we've had the 4th highest crowd figures EVER after rd. 10. Only about 300, 000 people watch AFL live every week... ...I think we can very, very safely say that the A-League poses no threat what-so-ever... ...which is exactly why they moved to a summer comp anyway. (Of course, if there's a fair amount of sarcasm there, or a private joke, I do apologise! :ok ) Right...so, can we now argue forever about the validity of stats ;) :drums

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Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)

No offense ads...but are you on about??!! :unsure I believe this year we've had the 4th highest crowd figures EVER after rd. 10. Only about 300, 000 people watch AFL live every week... ...I think we can very, very safely say that the A-League poses no threat what-so-ever... ...which is exactly why they moved to a summer comp anyway. (Of course, if there's a fair amount of sarcasm there, or a private joke, I do apologise! :ok ) Right...so, can we now argue forever about the validity of stats ;) :drums

Yeah i was taking the piss of course :lol Actually id be interested in hearing some of the stats last night Taz, Carlton copped a good old fashion ass kicking and there goes most of the respect we have earnt the past fortnight. I read somewhere Hawthorn had the most marks inside 50 ever recorded. I know we lost by 100 points on the scoreboard, but can ya tell us some of the other stats mate?

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Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle After being premiership favourites with some bookmakers in the pre season, Fremantle have yet to hit their straps so far this season. They sit in 11th position, but have recently shown glimpses of the form they need to carry them to the finals. It took them nearly 3 quarters to defeat Richmond last week but once they hit their stride they were irresistable. Inform players such as Peter Bell, Paul Hasleby and Matthew Pavlich have been sensational in recent weeks and should carry that form into Saturday nights match. The Dockers will miss only two key players, Justin Longmuir and Jeff Farmer, but these guys have been out for sometime now meaning they will field pretty much a full strength squad for this clash. The Bulldogs are a little more depleted, the super skilled Daniel Cross and speedster Ryan Griffin will miss this with injuries so the Dogs will be seriously tested in the midfield, an area Fremantle will capitalise on. Another factor worth noting is the fact this match is played at the neutral TIO Stadium in Darwin, despite it being a Bulldogs home match. This is a 4 hour flight for the Dogs and will be the third time they have travelled interstate in the past 4 matches which surely would take a toll on their fatigue. Look for the Dockers to get a win here and get their finals hopes back on track. Pick Fremantle WIN at $1.91 - 7/10 (Centrebet)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)

Yeah i was taking the piss of course :lol

Oh good! Should never have doubted! ;) Haven't got access to full stats yet mate...will ley you know when I do. I do remember seeing about half way thru the 3rd quarter the inside 50's were something crazy...55-30 or close to it!! :eek Just one more thing on last night...I know hindsight is a wonderful thing, but Hawthorn backer should never have been concerned about Franklin being out. His replacement was Xavier Ellis, which suggested that the Hawks themselves weren't worried about kicking a winning score. Even the explaination of, 'a tight calf, we thought we'd rest him until the (more) important St. Kilda game', showed they thought they had the game well in hand. Doesn't look like I'll get a decent number for the 'over' tonight...Lasseters expecting a high-scorer. Really am expecting a close game up there tho. Fair point about 3 week of travelk in 4, which might indeed take it's toll...but here are the numbers... Dogs in games outside the dome v. Freo away games... Dogs -5.5 I50's, Freo only -1, but Freo's road D has been poor (1.86), allowing 109 ppg...which plays into the Dogs hands of course...but even more-so, given they don't score so well ooutdoors. Both crap at clearances, Dogs (surprisingly) have a slight edge in contested ball... Dogs have BIG edge in pace, given Richmond really showed up the Dockers in that area last week. Haselby had about 3 kicks last weeks ads! :lol ...and I actually think we match up pretty well on Pavlich and Tarrant. Harris will get Pav for sure, and will let him have his possessions up the ground, but don't expect many goals. Morris/Hargrave will get Tarrant. Can they match up on Johnson/Cooney at the other end? Slight concern is that I've heard a whisper that Murphy is out for the Dogs...unconfirmed. HUGE game...winner makes the finals, loser won't. Go Dogs. :beer

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Having taken Hodge for the match medal, I'm astonished Sewell got it above him. Sewell had a tagging job and yet his opponent got 30+ touches. He also wasn't nearly as damaging as Hodge. Oh well, shouldn't bet on these things I guess.

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYBODY !

I love it when the bookies fall in love with the outsider when the favourite loses a key player. I couldn’t believe my eyes to see the Hawks drift from $1.62 to $1.91 on the back of the Franklin withdrawl. Carlton had only beaten a Bulldogs team that is allergic to body contact and a Port Adelaide team that is in its worst form slump for years. Yet they started favourite against a team that has beaten every team around them bar Sydney. Remembering that in Hawthorn's last 3 wins, Franklin has kicked 3 goals in total.

Taking into consideration Carlton concedes 100+ per game and the way Hawthorn setup defensively, Carlton were always going to battle to score 100.

I’ve been watching football for nearly 30 years and Carlton has the worst defence I have every seen including Fitzroy of the mid 90’s and the Demons of the early 80’s. I think cardboard cut outs would have been more effective last night against an average forward line. Bret Thornton looks like he is going through the motions with that nice big contract in his back pocket. Saddington and Bannister are useless, O’hailpin is being misused and giving Cain Ackland a three year contract was a serious error in judgement. Watching Koutoufides run around last night was sad. His career is just fizzling out unlike Hird, Archer and Harvey.

I was surprised by the amount of empty seats at the game last night considering it broke the AFL record. Level 2 was 3 quarters full, behind the goals at both ends and some empty seats and the bottom level wasn’t full. However, I wasn’t surprised with the crowd figure. Carlton v Hawthorn and the Dome is nearly always a sellout.

So I hope most of you got on the Hawks last night. It was a no-brainer in my mind and I’d like to thank the bookies once more. It’s hard to resist odds of 1.66,1.75,1.83,1.87 and 1.91. Long may the bookies continue to be gullible because the smart punters will catch you out.

Score Predictor

Geelong 113 Brisbane 59 Port Adelaide 81 Essendon 93

Suggested Bet

Port Adelaide Margin 1-39 Happy Days.

[Punto Banco]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)

MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYBODY !

I love it when the bookies fall in love with the outsider when the favourite loses a key player. I couldn’t believe my eyes to see the Hawks drift from $1.62 to $1.91 on the back of the Franklin withdrawl. Carlton had only beaten a Bulldogs team that is allergic to body contact and a Port Adelaide team that is in its worst form slump for years. Yet they started favourite against a team that has beaten every team around them bar Sydney. Remembering that in Hawthorn's last 3 wins, Franklin has kicked 3 goals in total.

Taking into consideration Carlton concedes 100+ per game and the way Hawthorn setup defensively, Carlton were always going to battle to score 100.

I’ve been watching football for nearly 30 years and Carlton has the worst defence I have every seen including Fitzroy of the mid 90’s and the Demons of the early 80’s. I think cardboard cut outs would have been more effective last night against an average forward line. Bret Thornton looks like he is going through the motions with that nice big contract in his back pocket. Saddington and Bannister are useless, O’hailpin is being misused and giving Cain Ackland a three year contract was a serious error in judgement. Watching Koutoufides run around last night was sad. His career is just fizzling out unlike Hird, Archer and Harvey.

I was surprised by the amount of empty seats at the game last night considering it broke the AFL record. Level 2 was 3 quarters full, behind the goals at both ends and some empty seats and the bottom level wasn’t full. However, I wasn’t surprised with the crowd figure. Carlton v Hawthorn and the Dome is nearly always a sellout.

So I hope most of you got on the Hawks last night. It was a no-brainer in my mind and I’d like to thank the bookies once more. It’s hard to resist odds of 1.66,1.75,1.83,1.87 and 1.91. Long may the bookies continue to be gullible because the smart punters will catch you out.

Score Predictor

Geelong 113 Brisbane 59 Port Adelaide 81 Essendon 93

Suggested Bet

Port Adelaide Margin 1-39 Happy Days.

I was thinking of backing the bombers for this... could you give me a little insight into this bet please....:ok

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Key Points- Port Adelaide v Essendon

- Port midfield clearly superior to Essendon’s, but have been below par recently. - Port has won 8 out of 9 against Essendon. - Essendon haven’t beaten Port at AAMI since 2000. - Tredrea’s 200^th game for Port must inspire their leaders to take the game on. - Essendon average 71 points at AAMI (last 4 games) - Port average 87 points at AAMI (last 4 games) - Game more likely to be played on Port’s terms. - Essendon aren’t suited to the bigger grounds or poor weather conditions. - Essendon don’t bury teams when in winning positions. - Port must keep winning their home games to stay in contention.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)

People, I cannot stress enough how special the Kangaroos are against Adelaide. You can look at my reasoning from yesterday, but it is the biggest special of the weekend. Daniel Wells is coming back into a team that has won 7/8 only losing to the West Coast Eagles at Subiaco. Pounding the life out of -5.5 @ centrebet: $2.10

I hope your spot on, H. I've backed Kangas at odds for the eight and recently took 6.25 about Adelaide mssing the eight. Tonight obviously is important to the chances of a nice pay out. I like the Bombers tommorow, Mak. I'm not so sure Port can readily bounce out of their slump, even if it is Tredrea's 200th, a player who is right out of condition himself. They threw everything at Hawthorn, drawing on the passing Mrs Williams, yet couldn't do it. A Sheedy coached Essendon traditionally thrives of successes like the last two. They should be the clear favourite IMO.

[Punto Banco]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Seems like their is points for both sides... however thinking about it I prefer to go with what we have seen rather than what may be... I'll back the bombers after a little more stat browsing....:ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)

Could go on about a result like this' date=' but having thought about it - the best thing I can sum it up with is, Carlton aren't [b']that bad, Hawthorn aren't that good.

Not at all untrue, jeffers. From where I sat Carlton had simply dropped their heads by mid second qtr, once it was obvious they weren't good enough. Albeit, is a Geelong/Hawthorn GF a more than realistic possiblity? September's a different ball-game and fair way off, as we all know, but I can I certainly see it happening. I'd almost favour Hawthorn in a rematch (now) with Sydney. They themselves dropped the heads somewhat once Sydney turned things on them, something Hawthorn obviously were out to atone for last night.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Untrue, jeffers...Carlton are the bad, sorry old chap ;) Kangas poor tonight under real defensive scrutiny....Doggies maybe got lucky ;) ...great game tho. Fully expected to run the game out better, just lucky we weren't further behind at HT. As much as it' the same old crappy, lazy, unaccountable Doggies, it's also the year we actually have a decent backline. Brian Harris. AA. Long may the bookies continue to be gullible because the smart punters will catch you out. Um....yeah....Go those out of work bookies!! ;)

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)

Untrue' date=' jeffers...Carlton [b']are the bad, sorry old chap ;)

Maybe your winding here but I'm replying because I think your serious ;) Mate, I will bow to your obvious superior knowledge of the game, as I've been following it for merely this season, but honestly, Carlton aren't that bad. I've been to every game bar Geelong and West Coast (thankfully I didn't bother with those :rollin). With a young team like Carlton has, results like this are going to happen - but just look at the way they played against Port, Doggies, Essendon and Brisbane this year. Good, flowing football. Of course the defense is terrible...infact at times it's actually quite embarassing - but to say Carlton are as bad as 80-180 vs Hawthorn is not true. IMO Hawthron (and Sydney amongst others) are they type of team that will just shut Carlton down and stop the flowing one-two handball and kicks they like to do. Against teams like Essendon, Brisbane etc they were allowed to do that...I maintain, Carlton are a decent side, better than at least 4 in the league ;) I might be talking sh!t here, I'm a noob at the game, but I feel I have a good handle on the game and I'm refusing to accept we're as bad as people think :ok

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)

I was surprised by the amount of empty seats at the game last night considering it broke the AFL record. Level 2 was 3 quarters full' date= behind the goals at both ends and some empty seats and the bottom level wasn’t full. However, I wasn’t surprised with the crowd figure. Carlton v Hawthorn and the Dome is nearly always a sellout.

Can't remember what it looked like on TV, but believe me mate, it was heaving there the other night...bottom deck was full behind the seats, and there were people sitting on the steps on Level 3. :ok Good tipping on Hawks btw, remember thinking during the game it must have been sweet for Hawks backers to watch such an easy win :lol