cavello Posted June 20, 2007 Author Share Posted June 20, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 E/W Bets in the same race. 4.45 Worcester White Gate 2 pts E/W @6/1 Bet365(BOG):hope Collateral formlines suggest very similiar level to favourite. Monty's Salvo 3 pts E/W @ 5/1 general:hope Form in point to points on soft and looks to be put in here with a good chance for this unexposed 8-Y-O.:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 20, 2007 Author Share Posted June 20, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 E/W Bets in the same race. 4.45 Worcester White Gate 2 pts E/W @6/1 Bet365(BOG):hope :sad Collateral formlines suggest very similiar level to favourite. Monty's Salvo 3 pts E/W @ 5/1 general:hope :sad (PU Lame) Form in point to points on soft and looks to be put in here with a good chance for this unexposed 8-Y-O.:loon Both unplaced and Monty's Salvo drifted alarmingly :sad Noted that the ex-point to pointers types did reasonably well which surprised me. Will keep this in mind in future Loss on day 10 pts:cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 20, 2007 Author Share Posted June 20, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Akuaba 7.00 Leo 5 pts E/W @ 2/1 with Ladbrokes:hope Rated over 80 and just finished outside the money in a listed race. Main danger is based on from form only one race. At the moment 1.24 for a place so 1.4 with the Bookmakers looks pretty fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 20, 2007 Author Share Posted June 20, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Akuaba 7.00 Leo 5 pts E/W @ 2/1 with Ladbrokes:hope Rated over 80 and just finished outside the money in a listed race. Main danger is based on from form only one race. At the moment 1.24 for a place so 1.4 with the Bookmakers looks pretty fair. 2nd (SP 11/8) so loss of 3 pts. N.B. Where I have obtained a very good price I usually lay back (in running) the win section plus a bit extra about the advantage I've obtained so came out of the race with a small profit if I lose in a close finish or unluckily etc... In above laid back at 1.5:ok Obviously if it wins profit is reduced.. In above race don't know how I got taken...never looked like winning:eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 20, 2007 Author Share Posted June 20, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Outlay to Date = 92.0 pts Return to date= 108.93 pts. Profit to Date = +16.93 pts Yield to Date= 18.4 %:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 21, 2007 Author Share Posted June 21, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 pts E/W Montare 3.45 Ascot @18/1(1/4 odds place) with Hills:hope On dosage analysis of pedigree the most stoutly bred in race. Alwaays appears to be running on at the business end of races. Been prepared very well IMO first race this season 10 furlongs 2nd race over much longer trip and was running on strongly in last 2 furlongs N.B. value also on Slapdash method Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 21, 2007 Author Share Posted June 21, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 x 1 pt E/W Doubles:hope Misses Baliey 11/4 4.10 Lingfield:hope x Norma Becket 9/4 7.10 Towcester Both:hope Pigeon Island 9/4:hope All Odds above Sportingodds 2 x 1 pt E?w Doubles with Bet365:hope Champagne Shadow 5/2(BOG) 4.10 Lingfiled:hope X Norma Becket 2/1(BOG):hope Pigeon Island 9/4 (BOG):hope Outlay 8 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 21, 2007 Author Share Posted June 21, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 x 1 pt E/W Doubles:hope Misses Baliey 11/4 4.10 Lingfield:hope unplaced 4th:wall x Norma Becket 9/4 7.10 Towcester Both:hope 2nd Pigeon Island 9/4:hope 3rd All Odds above Sportingodds 2 x 1 pt E?w Doubles with Bet365:hope Champagne Shadow 5/2(BOG) 4.10 Lingfiled:hope :ok X Norma Becket 2/1(BOG):hope 2nd:sad Pigeon Island 9/4 (BOG):hope 3rd:sad Outlay 8 pts Loss on Bet 3.65 pts:\ Loss on day 7.65pts;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 21, 2007 Author Share Posted June 21, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 pts E/W Montare 3.45 Ascot @18/1(1/4 odds place) with Hills:hope On dosage analysis of pedigree the most stoutly bred in race. Alwaays appears to be running on at the business end of races. Been prepared very well IMO first race this season 10 furlongs 2nd race over much longer trip and was running on strongly in last 2 furlongs N.B. value also on Slapdash method 5th hampered when about to make final effort:@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 21, 2007 Author Share Posted June 21, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Outlay to Date = 104.0 pts Return to date= 113.28 pts. Profit to Date = +9.28 pts Yield to Date= 8.9% Sat on fence about advising 2 e/w singles in the 4.10 at Lingfield today (I don't think this would be popular with the punters on here). I did do these myself at 5/2 and 11/4 to make a little profit on the race with a winner and an unplaced (4th). Was disappointed to not get a win double up when you consider the odds for success were about 4/6 for the 7.10 at Towcester. Montare was IMO unlucky in running and with a bit of luck could have easily got 3rd spot. Last few bets have suffer from just missing places or finishing 2nd. But hopefully I can start getting some winners and a few successful doubles up in the next few weeks.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 5 pts E/W Sister Act 1.40 Newmarket @ Sportingodds 5/2:hope Run a good race FTO but appeared to bounce next time out. Being a sister of Sovier Song any softening of ground should not affect. lets hope there is a return to the form of the first race which is worth an OR of over 80. Miss Taboo 2 pts E/W 5.20 Radcar @ Sportingodds 14/1:hope May be better then then her OR of under 50 and IMO she may be worth 60+. Got a good draw and is a standard bet against na long odds-on shot Takeover Target.2pts E/W 3.45 Ascot @ Bet365 8/1:hope Have given my reason in the ATR thread for Ascot. Does acually equate to value based on the Slapdash method with place odds trading around 2.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 5 pts E/W Sister Act 1.40 Newmarket @ Sportingodds 5/2:hope 3rd @4/1 sp Run a good race FTO but appeared to bounce next time out. Being a sister of Sovier Song any softening of ground should not affect. lets hope there is a return to the form of the first race which is worth an OR of over 80. Miss Taboo 2 pts E/W 5.20 Radcar @ Sportingodds 14/1:hope May be better then then her OR of under 50 and IMO she may be worth 60+. Got a good draw and is a standard bet against na long odds-on shot Takeover Target.2pts E/W 3.45 Ascot @ Bet365 8/1:hope 2nd Have given my reason in the ATR thread for Ascot. Does acually equate to value based on the Slapdash method with place odds trading around 2.8 The crazy price for Sister Act on the exchanges 1.75+(place only) was taken advantage of.:ok Still no winner again:sad Loss on race -2.5 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 5 pts E/W Sister Act 1.40 Newmarket @ Sportingodds 5/2:hope :ok 3rd Run a good race FTO but appeared to bounce next time out. Being a sister of Sovier Song any softening of ground should not affect. lets hope there is a return to the form of the first race which is worth an OR of over 80. Miss Taboo 2 pts E/W 5.20 Radcar @ Sportingodds 14/1:hope 2nd:ok May be better then then her OR of under 50 and IMO she may be worth 60+. Got a good draw and is a standard bet against na long odds-on shot Takeover Target.2pts E/W 3.45 Ascot @ Bet365 8/1:hope 2nd:ok Have given my reason in the ATR thread for Ascot. Does acually equate to value based on the Slapdash method with place odds trading around 2.8 +3.1 pts on day. But no winners Outlay to Date = 122.0 pts Return to date= 134.38 pts. Profit to Date = +12.38 pts Yield to Date= 10.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 23, 2007 Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 5 pts E/W Sister Act 1.40 Newmarket @ Sportingodds 5/2:hope Run a good race FTO but appeared to bounce next time out. Being a sister of Sovier Song any softening of ground should not affect. lets hope there is a return to the form of the first race which is worth an OR of over 80. Miss Taboo 2 pts E/W 5.20 Radcar @ Sportingodds 14/1:hope May be better then then her OR of under 50 and IMO she may be worth 60+. Got a good draw and is a standard bet against na long odds-on shot Takeover Target.2pts E/W 3.45 Ascot @ Bet365 8/1:hope Have given my reason in the ATR thread for Ascot. Does acually equate to value based on the Slapdash method with place odds trading around 2.8 Excellent work.:clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 23, 2007 Author Share Posted June 23, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Kev, For some reason did not advise 3 E/W doubles.:$ :$ Which I did do myself:ok Cavelloman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 24, 2007 Author Share Posted June 24, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Late Selection. Hartwell 2.20 Hexham. 4 pts E/W Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 24, 2007 Author Share Posted June 24, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Placed loss on bet -2.6 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 24, 2007 Author Share Posted June 24, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Ajzal 2 pts E/W 4.40 Pontefract 7/1 @sportingodds Reviewed in ATR thread for this course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 24, 2007 Author Share Posted June 24, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value :interface_displayMoreInfo(20465841' date=' 'O', null, 2457475, 'Standard', null, 1);'>Ajzal 2 pts E/W 4.40 Pontefract 7/1 @sportingodds Reviewed in ATR thread for this course. Unplaced -4 pts. I hope anybody taking the 7/1 e/w with befair accounts traded out when the price on the exchange was 1.42(we had 2.4) for a place and 3.5(we had 8) for a win to at least ensure no loss whatever happened. It is stange how often you get a fantastic price and you don't collect so I always take the more careful approach in these circumstances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 24, 2007 Author Share Posted June 24, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Outlay to Date = 134.0 pts Return to date= 139.78 pts. Profit to Date = +5.88 pts Good some great value bets today but no profit.:sad Not putting up any doubles yesterday did not help this week performance:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted June 30, 2007 Author Share Posted June 30, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 4 pts e/w GordonsVille 6.45 Lingfield. 11/4 general:hope Must have major chance to win this if anywhere near form of last season when running well in high class handicap at Goodwood. 4 pts e/w Soul Mountain 4.00 Chester 2/1 general :hope Hills with his good record at this track looks to have found a good opportunity here for this maiden that is yet to have been put in a race with a serious chance. look to this one rudden more near the front here Sarraat 2 pts e/w 11/1 Paddy Power 9.20 Wol:hope apprentice ridden and unexposed. I expect more tonight. Ravarino 3 pts e/w 13/2 Paddy Power 9.20 Wol:hope Based on OR should be closer in price to the favourite IMO. Again ridden by an appretice. This one looks to be gradually improving. 5 x 1 pt E/W Doubles Outlay 36 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 7, 2007 Author Share Posted July 7, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value I pt e/w Kandicate 100/1 3.15 Sandown.:hope :hope Reasons stated in ATR Thread. 3 pts e/w Notnowcato* sp :hope :hope *This bet only to be placed 3 mims before race if dead 8 are running. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 7, 2007 Author Share Posted July 7, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value I pt e/w Kandicate 100/1 3.15 Sandown.:hope :hope Reasons stated in ATR Thread. 3 pts e/w Notnowcato* sp :hope :hope *This bet only to be placed 3 mims before race if dead 8 are running. :nana 23.2 pts profits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted July 7, 2007 Share Posted July 7, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value :clap :clap Nice going Mate.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 7, 2007 Author Share Posted July 7, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Outlay to Date = 178.0 pts Return to date= 198.63 pts. Profit to Date = +20.63 pts Yield = 11.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 8, 2007 Author Share Posted July 8, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 pts E/W Sheik'N'Knotsterd 2.30 Brighton 16/1 Sportingodds:hope Given a 15% chance by Peter May in the Raceform Update. Should stay the extra furlong and this does represent a slight drop in class into what appears a very modest maiden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 8, 2007 Author Share Posted July 8, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 pts e/w Fresh Winter 2.40 Market Rasen 16/1 Sportingodds:hope Rated 90 by Timeform for NH Flat. Last 2 runs have been below par. But the trainer got a good record here and the jockey also has a good record with this trainer. Very well related to good Hurdlers and Jjumpers. Timeform suggest staying will be no problem. So I'm willing here to take:hope a chance on an improved effort on this horse's first outing over the sticks in what is a pretty poor race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 8, 2007 Author Share Posted July 8, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 pts E/W Sheik'N'Knotsterd 2.30 Brighton 16/1 Sportingodds:hope Given a 15% chance by Peter May in the Raceform Update. Should stay the extra furlong and this does represent a slight drop in class into what appears a very modest maiden. Started at 8/1 but unplaced:( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 8, 2007 Author Share Posted July 8, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 pts e/w Fresh Winter 2.40 Market Rasen 16/1 Sportingodds:hope Rated 90 by Timeform for NH Flat. Last 2 runs have been below par. But the trainer got a good record here and the jockey also has a good record with this trainer. Very well related to good Hurdlers and Jjumpers. Timeform suggest staying will be no problem. So I'm willing here to take:hope a chance on an improved effort on this horse's first outing over the sticks in what is a pretty poor race. Refused at first:wall Started at 10/1:sad Lost on day - 8 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 15, 2007 Author Share Posted July 15, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Peeping Fawn 5 pts e/w 3/1 Irish Oaks sportingodds:hope This must be the bet here. Unlucky in running at Epsom. Won over 10 furlong LTO beating 2 classic winner in the process. Act on the track and also on softer surfaces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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