cavello Posted July 25, 2007 Author Share Posted July 25, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Profit to Date = +70.13 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 28, 2007 Author Share Posted July 28, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 7.10 Salisbury 3 pts e/w Kaldoun Kingdom 5/1 Bet365(BOG):hope 2 pts E/W My Name is Frank 14/1 Bet365(BOG):hope Both have form in a race with very little and should be value in a race with many new comers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 28, 2007 Author Share Posted July 28, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value I expect another tonite But will post late to ensure E/W value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 28, 2007 Author Share Posted July 28, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 for the 1.25 at Newmarket against an odds-on shot. Both bets at 2 pts E/W Alcimedes @7/1 Bet365(BOG):hope Chapple-Hyam's strike rate in 2 Y O races merits respect. Over 60% placed this season. Woolfall Treasure @14/1 Bet365(BOG):hope Ran fairly well on debut here on soft going. Next time ran poorly on firm going. Well related and may prove second run all wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 28, 2007 Author Share Posted July 28, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 for the 1.25 at Newmarket against an odds-on shot. Both bets at 2 pts E/W Alcimedes @7/1 Bet365(BOG):hope unplaced Chapple-Hyam's strike rate in 2 Y O races merits respect. Over 60% placed this season. Woolfall Treasure @14/1 Bet365(BOG):hope:ok 2nd 14/1 Ran fairly well on debut here on soft going. Next time ran poorly on firm going. Well related and may prove second run all wrong Small loss on bet. -0.4 pts. We might get one of these bigger priced bets winning one day:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 28, 2007 Author Share Posted July 28, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 5pts E/W Doyles Lodge 7.30 Lingfield 9/4@W Hill:hope Poor race similar level to odds on favourite in dead 8 race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted July 28, 2007 Share Posted July 28, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 7.10 Salisbury 3 pts e/w Kaldoun Kingdom 5/1 Bet365(BOG):hope 2 pts E/W My Name is Frank 14/1 Bet365(BOG):hope Both have form in a race with very little and should be value in a race with many new comers. Get in :nana Nice one Cavello :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted July 28, 2007 Share Posted July 28, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 7.10 Salisbury 3 pts e/w Kaldoun Kingdom 5/1 Bet365(BOG):hope 2 pts E/W My Name is Frank 14/1 Bet365(BOG):hope Both have form in a race with very little and should be value in a race with many new comers. :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Superb and Thank You mate. Couldnt have that Kaldoun Kingdom as I thought form looked very ordinary but: The Name Is Frank :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 29, 2007 Author Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 Bets today Coppertown 3 pts E/W 2.00 Carlisle @3/1 (BOG) Bet365 :hope Hopeful that shorter trip will siut here. A pretty poor maiden race and usually a OR figure of 70+ is adequate for a race of this nature.. One Giant Leap 4 pts e/w 5.15 Carlisle @2/1 NPBet:hope Good first run when given a gentle introduction. This race looks pretty poor IMO and this well related horse should get placed. Only concern relatively long lay off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 29, 2007 Author Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 Bets today Coppertown 3 pts E/W 2.00 Carlisle @3/1 (BOG) Bet365 :hope:ok Hopeful that shorter trip will siut here. A pretty poor maiden race and usually a OR figure of 70+ is adequate for a race of this nature.. One Giant Leap 4 pts e/w 5.15 Carlisle @2/1 NPBet:hope:clap:clap Good first run when given a gentle introduction. This race looks pretty poor IMO and this well related horse should get placed. Only concern relatively long lay off. Profit on day +8.4 pts :clap:clap:clapForza del Cavello:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 29, 2007 Author Share Posted July 29, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Outlay to Date = 308.0 pts Return to date= 408.03pts. Profit to Date = +100.03 pts Yield = 32.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 30, 2007 Author Share Posted July 30, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Absolute minimun bet here in this poor race. Intregration Uttoxeter 7.20 2 pts E/W with Sportingodds:hope IMO the favorite might have tourble staying the distance. So a relativelly small bet on a proven recent winner may represent a degree of valy. N.B. Value on the bare figures based on the "Slapdash methodology" at 6/1 at this moment in time. Value on the maths with Intergation:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 30, 2007 Author Share Posted July 30, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Unplaced -4pts. Very poor night for me after a mega few days.:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 30, 2007 Author Share Posted July 30, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Very late advice based on market figures only Marieschi8/1:hope8.10 wINDSOR with Betfred 3 PTS E/W Cecil third fav big gap to 4th fav Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 30, 2007 Author Share Posted July 30, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Very late advice based on market figures only Marieschi8/1:hope8.10 WINDSOR with Betfred 3 PTS E/W Cecil third fav big gap to 4th fav Unplaced..(luckily covered Officer E/W it was 1.28 fro the place on betfair so 2/1 equalled value)) But still a bad night -6pts. Profit to date 90.03pts. Will be back at the weekend. Need a rest. It is becoming clear that form based selections are more profitable, then market figure bets only, at least so far this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted August 3, 2007 Author Share Posted August 3, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 bets for the 5.50 at Bangor. 2 previous winners of novice hurdles and rated above 100 OR opposing an odds-on shot having it's first hurdle race. Mr Wisguy 3 pts E/W @ 4/1 with Ladbrokes Habanero 3 pts E/W @ 4/1(BOG) with Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted August 3, 2007 Author Share Posted August 3, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value 2 bets for the 5.50 at Bangor. 2 previous winners of novice hurdles and rated above 100 OR opposing an odds-on shot having it's first hurdle race. Mr Wisguy 3 pts E/W @ 4/1 with Ladbrokes:ok Habanero 3 pts E/W @ 4/1(BOG) with Bet365[:clap/quote] Profit on bet 13.2 pts :clap:clap:clapForza del Cavello:clap:clap:clap Profit to Date = 103.23 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john_lovell Posted August 3, 2007 Share Posted August 3, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Well done Forza del Cavello Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
padman Posted August 3, 2007 Share Posted August 3, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value super stuff - well done :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted August 3, 2007 Share Posted August 3, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value :clap:clap Excellent again Mate.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Irish Wolf 4 pts E/W 3.05 Windsor 12/5 @Sportingodds:hope Hopefully will be better suited to the distance of this race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Today strikes me as a day for E/W doubles. Irish Wolf reviewed above. Millisecond:hope having clocked a much faster time then the favourite in the Lingfield race Apple Bloosom :hopeand Talk More :hopelook to be about 20 pounds in advance of the rest of the filed in their race. Nawaaff top on ratings and well drawn:hope Wassily Kandinsky:hope Not adviced as E/W single because only 8 runners but looks value to me at 9/4 Running over a more suitable distance and a full brother to a runner up in the Derby Italiano. 14 x 1 pt E/W Doubles:hope All odds (BOG) with Bet365 04/08/20073.05 Windsor (Win and Each Way) Wolf River 9/43 Places 1/5 Odds To Run204/08/20078.00 Lingfield (Win and Each Way) Millisecond 9/43 Places 1/5 Odds To Run304/08/20072.00 Thirsk (Win and Each Way) Nawaaff 13/83 Places 1/5 Odds To Run404/08/20074.20 Thirsk (Win and Each Way) Apple Blossom 5/63 Places 1/5 Odds To Run504/08/20074.20 Thirsk (Win and Each Way) Talk More 15/83 Places 1/5 Odds To Run604/08/20075.00 Galway (Win and Each Way) Wassily Kandinsky 9/43 Places 1/5 Odds To Run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Millisecond 3 pts e/w 8.00 Lingfield @3/1 with Paddy Power.:hope Better on time then the favourite on their respective runs here and also value on basic figure 1.37 for place at the moment on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Irish Wolf 4 pts E/W 3.05 Windsor 12/5 @Sportingodds:hope Hopefully will be better suited to the distance of this race. 2nd loss on bet -2.08 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value :clapToday strikes me as a day for E/W doubles. Irish Wolf reviewed above. Millisecond:hope having clocked a much faster time then the favourite in the Lingfield race Apple Bloosom :hopeand Talk More :hopelook to be about 20 pounds in advance of the rest of the filed in their race. Nawaaff top on ratings and well drawn:hope Wassily Kandinsky:hope Not adviced as E/W single because only 8 runners but looks value to me at 9/4 Running over a more suitable distance and a full brother to a runner up in the Derby Italiano. 14 x 1 pt E/W Doubles:hope All odds (BOG) with Bet365 04/08/20073.05 Windsor (Win and Each Way) Wolf River :ok9/43 Places 1/5 Odds 2nd204/08/20078.00 Lingfield (Win and Each Way) Millisecond :clap9/43 Places 1/5 Odds WOM304/08/20072.00 Thirsk (Win and Each Way) Nawaaff :clap13/83 Places 1/5 Odds WON404/08/20074.20 Thirsk (Win and Each Way) Apple Blossom :clap6/43 Places 1/5 Odds WON504/08/20074.20 Thirsk (Win and Each Way) Talk More :sad15/83 Places 1/5 Odds To Run604/08/20075.00 Galway (Win and Each Way) Wassily Kandinsky 4/1:ok3 Places 1/5 Odds 2nd Winner and second at 3.10 2 winners 1 second and 1 unplaced at 4.25 2 winners 2 seconds and an unplaced at 5.07 3 winners 2 second and an unplaced. Very unlucky in Ireland. Too much to do on a sharp track. Pity nice price:wall Profit on Bet 16.60 pts (If only that Kandinsky had painted a better picture) :clap:clap:clapForza del Cavello:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value O.K. this is an odd one with Bet365 for a Grand Prix, With Kimi Raikkonen at 1.78 for a place on the lay side for a podium place.. But with 7/1 at quarter odds we are getting 2.75. Most others going 1/5 odds so this represents mathematical value. 2 pts E/W advised.:hope 05/08/2007Hungarian Grand Prix (To Win Outright) Kimi Raikkonen 7/1 3 places 1/4 odds Remove Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Millisecond 3 pts e/w 8.00 Lingfield @3/1 with Paddy Power.:hope Better on time then the favourite on their respective runs here and also value on basic figure 1.37 for place at the moment on Betfair. Won profit on bet = + 10.8 pts :clap:clap:clapForza del Cavello:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john_lovell Posted August 4, 2007 Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Well done! Forza del Cavello!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted August 4, 2007 Author Share Posted August 4, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value Profit to Date = 128.55 pts Time foe some:beer:beer:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted August 5, 2007 Author Share Posted August 5, 2007 Re: Non Handicap E/w Value No bets for today's racing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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