The Derby.

[Carl]

4/5 Odds on for the Derby :eek What a sick price. I personally dont think it will win and the price is due to the blind leading theblind. Is Authorized really a 4/5 shot in a 20 or so horse race. The last odds on favourite to run in the race was'93 :unsure and that came 10th. Will the Frankie hoodoo strike again? Surely this leaves some very good E/W value bets lying around. Ive had 1 written down on my desk for nearly 5 weeks now and I hope its still 25/1;) Just checked its 33/1 now :nana:nana Thoughts...........

[arsenalpunter]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on The horse deserves to be favourite but not sure how it can be an odds on favourite. Haven't looked too in depth at the race yet but there are still horses in the race that haven't had a run yet this season and they may of improved. Also im not sure if Authorized will handle Epsom.

[Mr Bubbles]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on I personally will be going for Soldier of Fortune, have not backed it yet as waiting for payday at the end of the month but it has shown it can win over the distance and handle the Good soft ground expected in the race. It might not win but I am very hopefull it will place, 14's down my local bookies.

[Carl]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on I dont think it will TBH mate and the faster ground might just be a problem. Its only won on Good/soft , Soft and Heavy.

[Carl]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on Thats just it isnt it mate, other horses at E/W are better value than the odds for the fav,

[Mr Bubbles]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on On the racingpost site the course clerk said He said: “We had 14mm on Saturday, 20 on Sunday and another three this afternoon, but while showers are forecast for later in the week they aren't expected to be too heavy and certainly nothing likethe volumes we've experienced in recent days. Accordingly, I think the ground will be good to soft on Saturday, though it's difficult to be entirely accurate this far out. I wouldn't expect it to be any worse than soft.” Which would not upset me if it were to be soft ground.

[gregprowt]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on

I personally will be going for Soldier of Fortune' date=' have not backed it yet as waiting for payday at the end of the month but it has shown it can win over the distance and handle the Good soft ground expected in the race. It might not win but I am very hopefull it will place, 14's down my local bookies.[/quote'] Im with you there Mr Bubbles, Im just waiting for the non runner no bet offer at the right bookies at 14-1

[stewartd14]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on I agree with Authorized being too short. He looks the good thing but I would never touch an odds on shot in a race like the Derby. Personally have a strong fancy for Aqaleem.

[Chairmanbobby]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on EW shout for: Lucarno (Dynaformer - Vignette, by Diesis) won the 10f Fairway Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday, showing himself to be an exciting prospect as he beat a field of six in some style. 33-1 from 66-1

[Carl]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on

Im with you there Mr Bubbles' date=' Im just waiting for the non runner no bet offer at the right bookies at 14-1[/quote'] No Runner No Bet From PaddyPower [url=http://www.farbets.co.uk/link.php?p=paddypower] Epsom Derby & Oaks The Vodafone Derby and Oaks are only days away and to take a huge part of uncertainty out of this tricky equation, Paddy Power are now Non Runner No Bet on these races - so if your horse doesn't end up running, you'll get your stake refunded in full! Applies to bets placed after 12pm Monday 28th May 2007

[arsenalpunter]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on Admiralofthefleet at 16/1 looks a decent each way price.

[Carl]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on Ive had a bit of a squeak for Anton Chekhov 3rd on his debut and was a neck behind MaCarthur @ Lepordstown, the French trial didn't show his ability as he had to set the pace. Won LTO on Soft @ 1m3f.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on

Admiralofthefleet at 16/1 looks a decent each way price.

was easily tempted by the 45.00 on offer @ BF:eek couple of days ago.

[Woodie]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on If the ground does come up soft the Authorized fully deserves to be odds on and will take all the beating imo. I've backed most of Aidans runners only to small ammount although my biggest profit would be if Solider of Furtune was to win, he looks to have rock solid form from this year and as a 2 year old, will handle the sharpe track and the ground.

[Mighty Magyar]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on I posted this elsewhere , hope its okay to re-post in here. I'm not sure of the form of what Authorised beat at York. I know he looked good but all his form has been on softer ground. If it was to be on fast side of good will he act on a course which takes no prisoners? My early fancy was Aqaleem. I was lucky enough to back it at 140/1.

O

:GoToMarket(20098785,%201)'>GB / Epsom 2nd Jun / The Derby

Aqaleem

Back

:spawn('betBreakdown','3051771691')'>3051771691

22-Mar-07 11:26

140

7.00

140

22-Mar-07 11:26

When he met Authorised last season he beat him. Okay Authorised went on to win the Racing Post but Aqaleem was put away only returning in Lingfield Derby Trial , winning well, proving he acts on a course requiring similar qualities as Epsom and that he stays well. There should be improvement to come considering stable had coughing recently. Archipenko must be in with a big shout after winning a trial race that has been very informative over past few seasons. Looking like he would improve for the race would be interesting if turning up. I think it's an open looking Derby . But its all about opinions :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on Quite happy with my 2.55 taken some days ago.

[mowgli77]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on I also took similar price to Mileni and expected it to be backed in even shorter. It's not just what it's beaten but it's HOW it beat them and how it travelled in the Dante. As the other jockeys were pushing along on their horses Frankie just cruised up alongside and hit the turbo button to fly clear impressively. It has to be his best chance of a Derby win as long as he doesn't go too soon on it. It's definitely too short at odds on because anything could happen and the average punter will be looking elsewhere. The Aqaleem bandwagon is rolling and that too will be even shorter. I'm going to look into the race in depth the night before and hope to find an ew alternative but more than happy with my bet running on Authorized. I think it's the real deal and should be in the winners enclosure Saturday.

[Carl]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on

it's HOW it beat them and how it travelled in the Dante.

yeah but dont you think it was a poor Dante this year. Not taking anything away from Authorized as it is a good animal but c'mon Odds on:unsure

[mowgli77]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on

yeah but dont you think it was a poor Dante this year. Not taking anything away from Authorized as it is a good animal but c'mon Odds on:unsure

I wouldn't take the odds on if I hadn't already backed it. It will only get shorter with the non regular punters lumping on it at the weekend. I don't think they quite realise the potential return though when they put their £1 ew on. :lol Agree Carl, it was a poor Dante but there weren't really any standout derby trials. Odds on is too short for any horse on a track like this. I really fancied Horatio Nelson last year but it went wrong and I think it got put down. Anything can happen, I think O'Brien is going to run 8 runners just to box in Authorized like a T-PAC that police use in traffic pursuits. ;) Silkwood interests me in the Oaks, only won over 10f at class 3 level but was crying out for step up in trip and is nice price at 20-1. :)

[TheRat]

The Derby Thought I would start a new thread for this great race. I'm on Archipenko EW. Authorized is too short for my liking. Arcipenko won LTO over 1m2f and has the pedigree to win over 1m4f. Decent price, improving sort and won over different goings. Beat Yellowstone and Macarthur LTO and certainly looks the pick of O'Briens runners :ok

[bowles10]

Re: The Derby

No/Drw	Form	Horse	Age / Wt	Jockey / Trainer	OR
1 (5)	12	Acapulco (IRE) 28 bf.gif"> b c Galileo - Harasava	3 9 - 0	F M Berry A P O'Brien	-
2 (15)	131-71	Admiralofthefleet (USA) 22 b c Danehill - Rafina	3 9 - 0	J A Heffernan A P O'Brien	115
5 (1)	7-12	Arabian Gulf 23 b c Sadler's Wells - Wince	3 9 - 0	DOUBTFUL Sir Michael Stoute	106
6 (10)	021-1	Archipenko (USA) 20 b c Kingmambo - Bound	3 9 - 0	M J Kinane A P O'Brien	112
9 (13)	1-32	Eastern Anthem (IRE) 9 bf.gif"> b c Singspiel - Kazzia	3 9 - 0	K McEvoy Saeed bin Suroor	101
10 (19)	512-23	Kid Mambo (USA) 21 bf.gif"> b c Lemon Drop Kid - Spring Pitch	3 9 - 0	J Fanning T G Mills	104
13 (6)	911	Mahler 27 b c Galileo - Rainbow Goddess	3 9 - 0	P J Smullen A P O'Brien	-
14 (12)	010-17	Petara Bay (IRE) 35 b c Peintre Celebre - Magnificient Style	3 9 - 0	Dane O'Neill T G Mills	105
17 (9)	212-11	Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 23 b c Galileo - Affianced	3 9 - 0	W M Lordan A P O'Brien	111
18 (18)	5113-8	Strategic Prince 28 b c Dansili - Ausherra	3 9 - 0	E Ahern P F I Cole	117

[bowles10]

Re: The Derby Vodafone Derby Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only) Winner £709,750

7		Authorized	4/5	-	-	-	-	-	N/A
4		Aqaleem	-	-	-	-	-	10.5/1
6		Archipenko	8/1	-	9/1	-	-	-	N/A	10.5/1
8		Eagle Mountain	12/1	-	-	-	-	-	N/A
17		Soldier of Fortune	-	-	-	-	-	N/A
12		Lucarno	16/1	20/1	-	-	-	-	-	N/A
2		Admiralofthefleet	16/1	-	20/1	-	-	-	N/A	25/1
15		Regime	-	-	-	-	-	N/A
18		Strategic Prince	16/1	25/1	-	-	-	-	-	29/1
16		Salford Mill	20/1	25/1	-	-	-	-	-	N/A
5		Arabian Gulf	-	-	-	-	-	-	N/A
19		Yellowstone	33/1	-	-	-	-	-	N/A
13		Mahler	33/1	-	-	-	-	-	N/A
3		Anton Chekhov	40/1	50/1	-	50/1	-	-	-	N/A	69/1
1		Acapulco	-	-	-	-	-	79/1
14		Petara Bay	50/1	-	-	-	-	-	159
10		Kid Mambo	-	-	-	-	-	N/A
9		Eastern Anthem	-	66/1	-	-	-	N/A	189
11		Leander	-	-	-	-	-	649

[cavello]

Re: The Derby Archipenko E/W 10/1 Collateral formlines makes this a real contender. Won a traditionally important Derby trial. Will he stay. Well with a dosage figures of DI 1.62 and CD 0.53 places him above the average figure for the last 10 years of 1.33. So with a sire like Kingmanbo there must be some doubts. But the distaff side is much better for stayers. Eagle Mountain E/W 14/1 Way of running suggests extra distance will bring about an improvement. DI of 1.12 and CD of 0.06 suggest he should have no problem staying based on the Chef-de-Race sires in his pedigree. But again his sire was the miler Rock of Gibraltar and again with staying potential on the distaff side of the pedigree.with the influence of Darshaan. Soldier of Fortune 30 on the exhanges for the win anf about 5.5 for the place This horse will stay forever and already a winner of a Group 2 race in France over 1 mile 3 furlongs on soft going. This one may be more a St Leger type. For students of time here are Dave Bellingham's ratings Eagle Mountain 114 Stragic Price 112 Admiralofthefleet 112 Soldier of Fortune 111 Archipenko 110 And here are Mark Nelson's Soldier of Fortune 75 Admiralofthefleet 74 Arabian Gulf 71 Authorized 68 Stategic Prince 68

[mowgli77]

Re: The Derby Cavelloman - Interesting that the 3 I first picked out as ew alternatives are the exact 3 you've put up there. Eagle Mountian has some very good speed ratings, Soldier of Fortune will be fine with the trip and Archipenko looks like the stable pick with the best jockey in the race on board (Mick Kinane). I'm trying to decide whether to back or leave Soldier Of Fortune and am also swayed towards some ew money on Regime. Already taken Authorized and happy to let that run, good for racing if Frankie's dream finally comes true, I really hope he does it but there is loads of ew value available due to the price of the fav. This little offer from Paddy Power is interesting: Frankie - Relax, Don’t Do It! Vodafone Derby Saturday 2nd June 4.20pm Money-Back Special Paddy Power will refund all losing single stakes if your horse finishes in front of the Frankie Dettori ridden Authorized but fails to win the race. Imagine if Authorized pulled up lame, they would be hammered by the returned stakes.

[Carl]

Re: Derby - Authorized now odds on bump and merged.

[Carl]

Re: The Derby. Im going to have a nibble on The Godolphin animal Eastern Anthem @ 100/1 Apparently this lightly raced horse has been running well on the practice track and I know Shiek Mo let frankie go to ride the Fav but I rate McEvoy a better rider currently as some of his last few rides have been awesome. They way he rode Resonate yesterday was brilliant they way he came from the back and push Lake Poet all the way.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: The Derby. if Authorized fails, (i reckon the O'Brien horses will box him in) then Archipenko is my bet for the big one.

[Carl]

Re: The Derby.

i reckon the O'Brien horses will box him in

I think that also, why else would he have 8 runners:eek Bit of a tatic game me thinks

[arsenalpunter]

Re: The Derby. Anyone else think this is a really weak derby field?? Only two group one winners, not a very strong race in my opinion. Authorized will probably take all the beating but I wont be touching him at them odds and will be looking for some value in the race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: The Derby. Does someone plan to try the "without Authorized" market for the Derby?