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AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)


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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)

I blame Ads Vagabund...A good bloke in Jeffers lobs in Oz and listens to Ads crap about how good Carlton are...Next minute Jeffers has a Membership for the Blues and goes to every game now and expects to win...He has since learnt that Carlton rarely win and he has wasted his Membership. I actually asked a Carlton supporter yesterday for a blueprint of his brain, cos I wanted to build a fcukwit :rollin
:rollin So that Carlton bloke must have turned from Blue to Red :rollin. Sorry Jeffers - I just hope Beejayville's story is wrong (at least a bit) and you have fun supporting Carlton. Beejayville, Is Carlton sponsored by Carlton & United breweries? Free / cheap beer for members to forget about Carlton losing. Or something like all-you-can-eat seats in LA Dodgers park for $30 or so.
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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)

Kangaroos are a bet IMO, vagabund. I'm on at 4.14, but would certainly take the current 3.93 Pinnacle. Noticed they were OTB at Pinnacle and not sure why - could simply be due to strong backing for a longshot. The leagues best player successfully appealed a suspension during week but that was settled Tuesday. I've heard whisper that WCE are in a little more injury trouble than it may seem - whether that means there will be changes I'm not sure but at this point in time the roo's are overs IMO. Kangaroos game style will trouble anyone. A 3.00 chance IMO. 10 x 7; seven days rest and ten days rest prior to that. Ash.
Ash - Thanks for the explanation.
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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)

:rollin So that Carlton bloke must have turned from Blue to Red :rollin. Sorry Jeffers - I just hope Beejayville's story is wrong (at least a bit) and you have fun supporting Carlton. Beejayville, Is Carlton sponsored by Carlton & United breweries? Free / cheap beer for members to forget about Carlton losing. Or something like all-you-can-eat seats in LA Dodgers park for $30 or so.
Mate, I wouldn't listen too much to what Bjv says, it's all tongue in cheek (I hope so anyway cos I like to hope he's not as misguided as he comes across). I knew Carlton were spoon contenders when I jumped on. Not a problem. I love going to the games, it's a great craic, and we're a decent side too. Great attacking footy...rather that than boring games tbh. :ok Plus, we'll win a flag within a few years. Talking of Carlton, is it just me, or was watching Freo tonight just like watching Carlton? :wall:wall:wall Pavlich 4.7 wtf :@:@ Freo really should have won that I reckon, altho still a small profit on the bet I posted...said it would be a goal eiather way so not far out. :ok I honestly can't wait for the Pies fall from grace. What's the point in losing in the first round of the playoffs when you can finish last and get Matthew Kreuzer Esquire :dude
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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)

I honestly can't wait for the Pies fall from grace. What's the point in losing in the first round of the playoffs when you can finish last and get Matthew Kreuzer Esquire :dude
Thats exactly right. I try telling the Pie fans this but they keep crowing. Egg is on their face for tonights win, they wont win the flag this year so they may of just cost themselves a good 10+ year player in the draft with the win. Carlton will have the better of this season than Collingwood, we already have silverware too :dude
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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)

If he's anything like Josh Kennedy esquire' date=' then good lord...watch out world!! :eyes :eyes[/quote'] Quote of the night :rollin:rollin:rollin Still pretty happy with the Pies number 5 pick Scott Pendlebury :ok Dale Thomas wasn't a bad second pick either :dude
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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Was playing Poker with Ads and co tonight(read last night) and was watching the footy in between as best I could. From what I seen Freo should have really had this game sewn up early. They actually did what Collingwood usually do, and that's kick points instead of goals. Pavlich and Tarrant had over 60 possessions between them I think I heard, and to get only 4 goals from that many possessions is a poor return. Down the other end Anthony Rocca finally kicked straight and it was probably the difference in the game. Seemed like a good game to watch, and when I got home I watched the second half on Fox 1 and thought both sides played pretty well. Heath Shaw was missing from the Pies defence in the second half, and he has probably been our best player this season, so Pies did well to cover him in the second half. I'm not getting carried away by the win either, cos Freo have beaten no one away and they always play well against us. But a win is a win, and considering James Clement our All Australian defender is still to come back, also Paul Licuria still missing, it's a good sign.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)

Collingwoods last 5 games: 95, 86, 119, 102, 120 Fremantle's last 5 games: 58, 75, 96, 69, 101 Pies average for - agst 96 - 89 Freo average for - agst 91 - 94 So Pies for and against against Freo would result in... Pies should score around 95 on average (scored 103) Freo should score around 90 on average (scored 94) Total average around 185 (scored 197)
Pies last 3 game average is 107 and they score 103 last night Freo's last 3 game average is around 88 and they score 94 Interesting stats The for and against averages that Ads provides should start to even out around now, as last night's game was only a goal or two out which isn't bad really
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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Kennedy still kicks the crap out of Luke Livingstion, at pick four. All time worst first rounder :loon

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Hey Taza, what's the stats on the Eagles going forward etc? From where I sit they don't really have a forward line. Big Q is a forward I guess but he can be easily stopped, and after that they have little in the way of impsoing forwards. I thought the Eagles were morals for the flag, but after watching Pies/Freo last night, you need gun forwards that can swing a game, like Pavlich, Tarrant, Rocca and the like. Have I overestimated the Eagles? They will get top 4 tho and two home finals, easy passage to Grand Final. Sydney and Collingwood can beat them in Perth though, so can Adelaide on their day. Maybe Geelong is an even bigger threat because of their forward structure. Adelaide are sitting 3rd at 6-3 and not really playing brilliant football, considering the Roo is back today, he could slip into the forward line as a key forward easily, and straighten the Crows up. I reckon the Crows are only going to get better and they have a very lean defence. What do you make of the Eagles scoring power Taza? I know they have a great defence and judd and co pumping it forward endlessly, but is that enough?

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Pies are playing well and should make a big impression during the Finals but, naturally they will fall short again. To Beejay and all the other incest riden ferals at pie land, we will all toast to you again, as we did last year when then Dogs smacked you up. All the premierships a cake walk mate. Yeaaahhhh rrriiiiiigghht

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)

Pies are playing well and should make a big impression during the Finals but, naturally they will fall short again. To Beejay and all the other incest riden ferals at pie land, we will all toast to you again, as we did last year when then Dogs smacked you up. All the premierships a cake walk mate. Yeaaahhhh rrriiiiiigghht
Pies are a long way off winning a Premiership Chairman, we have about 9 kids who havn't yet played 50 games. Put them in a Grand Final against West Coast or Sydney men and they would get a shallacking this year. We shouldn't even be playing finals this year, we are not good enough, but if you win enough games and make the finals then that is a bonus. Pies are 2 or 3 years away, but when this crop of kids get up to 50-100 games, look out :) Having said that, we have seven wins on the board, and considering the players to come back in, and the other youngsters still yet to make the senior side, fair chance we will be playing finals, so be a good experience. Pies playing well enough to beat anyone on their day. Will your team play finals Chairman? With Collingwood it is not about winning Premierships Chairman, it is about appeasing the incest ridden feral supporters and having a crack. Even that other incest ridden ferally supported club Carlton are playing some good football It's all you can ask in this day and age of interstate dominated football. ;) All Victorians should be on the Collingwood charge to the finals to bring the Cup back home to Victoria :clap
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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Thought I would have a play with Ads's For and Against stats. Figuring if you even out the for and against for each team and their opponent, it will give you a guide as to what they should score if they play to their average for and against. I guess if you think a team is playing an inferior team then they may get above their average, so adjust accordingly. And vice versa. This is only shown as a guide and is not a predicted score as such, merely if each team kicks their average for compared to opponent's average against.

For

Agst

Prediction

Melbourne

76

108

76

Adelaide

84

75

96

West Coast

90

74

93

Kangaroos

101

95

88

Sydney

88

76

93

Essendon

104

97

90

Richmond

83

120

87

Brisbane

86

91

103

Port Power

92

87

86

Hawthorn

89

79

88

St Kilda

77

83

78

Geelong

120

79

102

Carlton

98

124

99

Bulldogs

95

100

110

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Here's my mad multi for the day: Adelaide win @ 1.48 Richmond win @ 1.70 Sydney over 15.5 @ 1.57 Kangaroos +25.5 @ 1.85 10 bucks will yield a nice return of $73. Good Luck all.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Can see Adealide now for as much as 1.57!! Madness. Thought I was doing well to get 1.47...:( Bjv...West Coast's scoring power is actually very good...a shot every 1.88 entries (overall) is 4th best behind (and get this...) Essendon, Geelong and Carlton!!!... ...1.72 at home!! which is best by a fair way... ...the problem is purely their accuracy. They've had just 1 game (Rd. 1) where they've kicked more goals than points...sitting on around 45% kicking for the year so far. Now, I guess there is two ways to look at that really...does it indeed come down to a lack of key forward personel, and so will continue, or is it purely an averages thing at this level, so you'd expect it to even up as the year goes on?? Not sure... ...the other interesting thing about WC is their I50's...surprisingly given their midfield, they are only 6th in entries...but 3rd in defensive entries **, so they do tend to strangle teams. ** second is St. Kilda which is why I think they will worry Geelong tomorrow...but anyway... You mentioned them at home...well, given they allow just 40 I50's per game, gain 54...score at 1.72...allow a shot just every 2.35 entries (also best by a fair margin)... ...they just aren't going to lose too many with numbers like that!!... ...also interesting to see you say that Collingwood can win over there!! Well, they lost by 'only' 12 points in Rd. 2...but look deeper... ...7 less shots, 10 less I50's (41-51)... Basically, the only way they will lose is if they kick really badly one game... ...(which is why I probably should have taken them 1-39, rather than Kangaroos +25.5 today!!...but anyway...)

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)

Teams close to full strength this week

93% Western Bulldogs, Sydney 90% Hawthorn 87% Essendon 85 % Geelong

Teams weakened by injury & suspension this week

62% West Coast 63% Richmond 65% St.Kilda 66% Melbourne

Well done Crisp! Like the way you presented the teams at full strength and those not. Percentage attached is great way to gain a perspective of where teams are at. Cheers :cheers
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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)

Kennedy still kicks the crap out of Luke Livingstion, at pick four. All time worst first rounder :loon
At the time it was hard to ignore Livingston. He was a star in the TAC cup and recorded some of the best times in the national draft camp history. Was a super athlete and was touted as being the next Steve Silvagni. He ended up injuring his back seriously in his first year at Carlton and nearly died in another accident. Was never the same player again, quite a sad story if ya read up about it. As for Josh Kennedy, the jury is still out on him. Has the size and potential to be a star, but just looks frightened when playing AFL. Has played well for the Bullants team getting best on grounds, but just gets gunshy in the seniors. Give him time
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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Basically, ads...with the depth of talent around the country now, and the professionalism of the under 18 comps and state leagues, it's getting less and less likely that a number 1 pick (specifically) is much better than number 10. Gibbs was the public standout this year...I didn't think he was even SA's best in the under 18's...and depending on a teams' needs, a bigger man may well have been the option... ...speaking of which, tell me a Thorpe or Riewoldt or Everitt aren't better than the highly rated Kennedy... ...you see what I'm getting at. A fair bit of lcuk goes into drafting players...there's not a lot of difference in the top 15 even...and history has shown there have been some cracking picks 50 and beyond. Basically, if you're hanging your hopes on a host of top 10 draft picks...it might well be a longer wait than you think!! Brisbane v. Richmond 190+ (2.00) Pretty crappy price for a (3-way) total, but great number, imo. Richmond's D is terrible...in fact both teams are really struggling down back...last 5 games they have allowed scored every 1.67 (Rich) and 1.72 (Bris) entries!!...further still, Brisbane allow a score every 1.68 away from home. Richmnond have hit 200+ in 8 of their last 10 at the dome...the Adelaide snore-fest was one that didn't... ...Brisbane 9 of last 10 been 190+. Just 4 of Richmond's games have been under 1990 this season...Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide...and Essendon last week although they kicked 12.20! Richmond have allowd 29+ shots in all but one game...Brisbane allowed 30.5 in their last 7. Brown up one end will be helped out enormously by Clark and Johnson back... Richo at the other! Scores. Lots of them!

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Pretty quiet around here tonight. Is everyone in shock having witnessed today's football or are you all out on the town getting smashed? The latter no doubt. Well, I might as well throw my two cents worth in. The Demons fully deserved their victory over Adelaide. Their second quarter was huge scoring 8 goals and whilst the Crows threw caution to the wind in the final term and decided to challenge, the Demons were far to good. The question mark over Adelaide keeps getting bigger and finals action isn't assured. Melbourne 89 Adelaide 72 The West Coast machine demolished the Kangaroos at Subiaco to stamp their authority on the competition. They are still over-using the footy, but the Roos couldn't hurt them today. It was the Kangaroos worst performance of the year and perhaps they can be forgiven for one poor effort, but they were exposed badly today and they now look shaky. West Coast 121 Kangaroos 55 The only thing that saved the Richmond-Brisbane game is that it was close. It only ranked one rung above the Hawthorn-St.Kilda game two weeks back. Neither team deserved to win and the final result was appropriate. Richmond 73 Brisbane 73 Speaking of mediocrity, it looks as though the final eight will have a few sub-standard teams in it this season. The Bombers booked themselves a finals berth tonight knocking over the Swans. Essendon were terrific outlasting a fast-finishing Sydney team and fully deserved their victory. With the Bombers easy run home, I can't see them missing the finals now. The Swans have become very inconsistent and are under pressure to make the finals. They face the Hawks next week and I don't like their chances. Sydney 73 Essendon 74 It's been a tough round so far, but tomorrow looks more promising.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) I'm here. But have nothing much to say. Havn't won a bet yet. But then, I have a trend of ending the weekends strongly! One thing I have to say though, I honestly have no idea who the leading club is this season. Nobody looks clear cut favourite to me. It would be between Geelong and West Coast I suppose. This week has so far produced losses to Adelaide, Freemantle and Sydney... all tipped for top 4 at the start of the year :p I've got some early bets on for tomorrow. Western Bulldogs over 15.5 + Port Adelaide over 15.5 I really like Bulldogs to win. Should be another high scoring affair too (well in todays standards). Western Bulldogs were humiliated last week, but I think they're a good enough side to bounce back. They're indifferent at the MCG, win as many as they lose.. but honestly, Carlton leaks goals. Harris is having a fine season and if he keeps Fev to 3 goals they should make the 15.5 margin. Port is the more iffy selection. Hawthorns record at AAMI is poor to say the least... ..really poor. But thats not enough to go on. However Port wont want to lose at home twice in a row, I reckon they'll be motivated. Tredrea normally rips it up against Hawks but he is out of sorts and Hawks are a better unit. Will be interesting to see how he goes. Hawks have just had a big win against West Coast down in Tassie too. I see this to be a bit of a disadvantage though;- I can see them being a bit tired, and a bit arragont. I've take Port to give them a wake up call, also beating the margin. Scott West Most Possessions This guy loves this ground! Already got 40 here this year, also got 40 there twice last year. Have to favour him again with little competition. Cross.. Scotland.. nobody else. Undoubtedly will be short odds but I'll take it. Also took St Kilda +24.5 They play their best football at the Dome by far. I find it hard to see Geelong beating this margin.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) St Kilda vs Geelong These two sides sit in contrasting positions on the tables, the Cats in 2nd position and the Saints in 14th position. However i believe this match will be alot closer than people are predicting. While St Kilda are on a losing streak of 2 games at the moment, they haven't played all that bad. In these two losses they trailed Hawks by 10 at 3 qtr time and Fremantle by 23 at 3 qtr time, they went on to meltdown in the final quarter in games they could of won. Wayward shooting at goal has become an issue but in the perfect Telstra Dome conditions they should be able to rectify that this week. The Saints have received a massive boost ahead of this clash with the anouncement of 6 players returning from injury, these players include Jason Gram, Max Hudghton, Leigh Montagna, Xavier Clarke, Raphael Clarke & Andrew Thompson. These are all top shelf names who will make a massive difference, Gram will add that much needed run through the midfield and rebounding from defence, while Hudghton will be a much welcoem return to their depleted backline of recent weeks. Geelong have been firing lately, but in matches early this year against Hawthorn & Kangaroos they were exposed badly when placed under pressure and i believe the Saints will be able to pressure Geelong this Sunday. It may be a tough ask to see a Saints win, but the +24.5 handicap line makes it an attractive bet for value. Pick St Kilda -24.5 at $1.91 - (5/10)

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn Hawthorn come into this game with an almost full strength line up and currently sit in 4th position. Their blend of youth and experience is an almost perfect mix and they have so many players in good form at the moment. They knocked off the top placed Eagles last round in sensational style. Port Adelaide on the other hand have hit a form slump by losing their past 2 and slipping to 7th on the table. The Power lost by a big margin last week at home to Geelong and i rate Hawthorn and Geelong as pretty similar teams, infact Hawthorn beat Geelong earlier in the season. Port Adelaides recent record over Hawthorn is a worry though as they have won the past 7, but they have been in opposite positions on the table the past few years and now Hawthorn seem to be improving by the week. Port Adelaide will miss Shannon Motlop from their lineup, while Hawthorn have added Xavier Ellis, Ben Dixon and Tom Murphy who are all very handy acquisitions. Pick Hawthorn WIN at $2.23 - (6/10)

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Port have included two first gamers in the final 22. Hawthorn continue to drift in betting, out to 2.35 now. I suspect a major emphasis by punters on head to head and road records, which is fine if we could bet on those past matches. ;) Much prefer to concentrate on current situation, personally. Although, did I hear whisper that Franklin missed some training earlier in week?? Even if there is such a change Hawks are still the value option given the strength of squad - Boyle, Dixon (returns), Croad, Roughead, Hodge still provide plenty forward firepower if for example a player like Franklin missed. As you mentioned ads, Port have hit a form slump IMO after being up until Rd-7. Those situations aren't always straight forward to step out of. Also perhaps an illusion the slump is down to good opp, which helps Hawks price further.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)

Pretty quiet around here tonight. Is everyone in shock having witnessed today's football or are you all out on the town getting smashed? The latter no doubt.
Nope. I was in shock... ...besides, couldn't afford to go out after 4 straight losses! :lol Terrible day at the office. Crows never really in it, but could have closed to 2 goals with 6-7 minutes left...Mattner had a flying shot (and missed) instead of a simple handball into the goal square... Kangas were well on top for the first 5 minutes of the last quarter but missed 3-4 easy(ish) shots which could have seen them right in it. (0.6 in the 2nd hurt too) Eagles landslide in the last 15 tho... ...haven't got exact stats with me, but I think I50's at 3/4 time were something like 39-36 Kangas way??! Signs were on the wall early for the 'over'...some simple misses, followed by a hell of a lot of skill errors...repeat...repeat. Agree. Terrible game. Swans looked to take control in the second...just thought they'd go on with it after half time. Full credit to Essendon I guess...:( ... ...although, how is Spida feeling right now after stupidly punching thru a point after the siren at 3/4 time!!! :wall Still think Hawthorn's road record is a worry ash...but good luck. :cheers
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Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Complete domination by the Eagles yesterday destroying the Roos. Such was their domination that they had 425 disposals for the match compared to the Kangaroos 304. The Eagles had 7 players get 26+ disposals for the match too. Amazing thing is that the Roos were with them heading into the final quarter and it took the Eagles 3 quarters just to shrug them off, but they let loose in the last quarter kicking 8.4 to 0.4 which proves the gap between class is apparant. Eagles did all this without Kerr and Cousins who are among the best players in the league. Great win :ok

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