AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) I just don't see what all the Collingwood hype is about. As I said, to me Port are definately the better side. They av. over 7 I50's per game more than their opp!! Outplayed Freo's midfield and even beat out the Crows last week 51 to 49! Now obviously there's more to a game than pumping the ball forward, but in a game where everything else is very, very even, it's a stand out stat to me. Plus, I do think Port's opp have been superior... Will be on Port...just looking now for the best price.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Good Lord Jeffers!! What the hell are you doing with the rediculous avatar??!! How's things anyway mate?...Obviously into the footy ;) Still staying for a while in sunny Melbourne?

[saintg1]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Being in agreement with much of what has been written already, and appreciating Ads' stats, have multied Brisb, Geel & Freo straight up w WC 1-39 @ 7.83. Most indicators (and most tipsters) point to this having a reasonable chance so am going 8/10 on it. GL to all...

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

What the hell are you doing with the rediculous avatar??!!

Prrrrrrrrrrrrrat da da da da! Carlton member now mate! Top 8 here we come! :unsure

How's things anyway mate?...Obviously into the footy ;) Still staying for a while in sunny Melbourne?

:lol Yeah, looking for a place, gonna stay a while (6 months+)...loving the footy :tongue2 Who do you go for anyway mate? Can't remember if ya told me.

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) .

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

For Aussie bookies like Winbet, Domebet, Betstar, Betchoice, Portlandbet, Centrebet, Sportingbet - is there an odds comparison site available? Would make things much easier :ok

I use this site: http://www.onthepunt.com.au/afllatestodds.php As far as derby sides go, well it looks wet in Melb today so I'm tempted to back collingwood but somehow I think Port might get up by about 18-points. Adelaide were at their impressive best last week and are so pro that a let down doesn't look likely. I'm thinking of bavking them seing they're getting out to 9/10 The issue with Freo is at 0-3 they will be desperate for a win so I think their heads should be on the job. I like them at the short quote. Keep in mind Pickett isn't at all properly fit and Dunn is perhaps being rushed in early IMV. West Coast could be the one to be some danger of a let down, maybe. I was looking through their home 2006 form and noticed they only won by more than 29.5 twice and failed nine times. Carlton arn't too bad (note Ess today) and sometimes a Stevens scenario produces favourable motivation factors.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Some superb work with the predictions so far Ads. Just a shame Collingwood couldn't get 1 goal closer, I'd have had a 35.00 winner :lol

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

Some superb work with the predictions so far Ads. Just a shame Collingwood couldn't get 1 goal closer' date=' I'd have had a 35.00 winner :lol[/quote'] Cheers mate :ok Its good to see the success from the NBL system continue on through the AFL one. Could be very handy in terms of margin betting cause there is some fantastic value on the cards

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Score Predictor Hawthorn 73 Geelong 84 Melbourne 64 Fremantle 83 West Coast 105 Carlton 84 A tough Saturday for punters with teams starting to show their true colours now. It appears the Saints will be one of real yo-yo teams of 2007. Good one week, rubbish the next. From quarter time onwards, they were never going to win and full credit to the Bombers. The bubble has well and truly burst in Brisbane. Their own game style has come back to bite them in the backside. Conversion for the Kangaroos is hurting them big time. They fully deserved their win tonight and if they can improve their effeciency they are capable of winning 9 or 10 games. They could easily have 3 at the moment. I listened to talkback on Friday night hearing the Bulldogs fans falling over themselves with praise for their effort against the Tigers. Let me say they have a long way to go. The Tigers continually butcher the ball yet still had a chance with 15 minutes to go. The Dogs won 6 of 8 against the bottom 6 last year, with 4 of those victories in the balance until the last 5 minutes. Let's see if they can take a decent scalp in the near future before I start paying them any respect. Fremantle and West Coast should have comfortable wins to complete the round, but the game in Launceston is up for grabs. Geelong are a better team, but the Hawks always manage to derail them. It should be a great game, but it will be scrappy. Suggested Bets FREMANTLE Margin 1-39 WEST COAST Points -34.5 Best of luck.

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Lost big on St Kilda and Brisbane. But made it all back with Adelaide, hooray. Had Mcleod most possessions at a tidy 4.50.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Conversion for the Kangaroos is hurting them big time. Brisbane kicked 8.15 themselves, BC... ...and were full on robbed in the last 10 minutes by umpiring. When they got to 1 goal down with about 8 minutes left, they got the centre break, kicked it forward and could easily have had 4 or 5 free-kicks in the next 10 seconds!! (Can't remember them all exactly, but Archer was definately holding the ball)...Kangaroos win the scrap, break up the other end and score themselves...effectively over then...and then their next goal even was from a freee-kick 30 out directly in front from a dropping the ball decision that wasn't as blatant as Archer's 2 minutes before. Anyway... How you feeling atm, bjv? Collingwood let one slip that you expected...Kanga's sneak one they maybe shouldn't have... ;) Tough day today...Rain and a wet ground in Melbourne even up that game. Freo really should win still, but I won't be tking them on the h'cap. Geelong clearly the better team, but Hawks have a great record at Launny...Geelong never played here...plus they beat Geelong in both meetings last year. Total a no-go too...big, wide ground...historically low scoring, but Geelong with about the best forward line ever :D ...well, Zac Dawson will struggle, put it that way! ;) West Coast obviously win, but it could be by anything... ....you're right Ash, they don't win by big margins...I think it's because they lack a good, consistant forward, that they don't usually sore big enough to win by lots. Doggies, jeffers...all the way!!...No, I'm not running around lauding our performance just yet either...but we will finish in the top 6, and anything is possible from there... ...oh, and what you do is, put them all in your 'favourites', grab a paper and pen, and go and check them all for the best price!...Take 2 minutes of your day ;) lol.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) I just did the old ever-reliable ladder predictor... I think the bottome 6 is definately settled... Richmond (I gave them 1 win!!) Kangas Carlton Collingwood Melbourne Brisbane.....I've got them in that order (reverse, obviously)...but a lot will depend on games amongst themselves, which could realistically go either way. (Having said that, I do have Brisbane 2 games clear of Melbourne, but I don't really trust that!) I've got Adelaide finishing 2 games clear on top!...Geelong, Sydney, West Coast all on the same points. St. Kilda, Ess, Dogs then make up the top 7... ...Hawthorn, Port, Freo battling it out for 8th If Hawthorn get up today, they could still be a decent value punt for the 8? Richmond 2.62 on BF for the Spoon...

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Hawthorn vs Geelong Geelong playing fantatsic footy recently. Their demolition jobs on Carlton and Melbourne in the past fortnight have been clinical and everyone one seems to be raving abut 18 year old Tom Hawkins who has kicked 7 goals in 2 matches. The way Geelong moves the ball and the speed they posess is fantastic and its going to be very hard for any team to beat them once they get their running game going. Today they travel down to Tasmania to face Hawthorn and this match has a lot of similarities to last year. After 2 rounds last year Geelong were top with two 60+ point victories and then Hawthorn who were near the bottom beat Geelong by 10 goals in Round 3. This year Hawthorn have had a pretty solid part, apart from their 25 loss o Brisbane in Round 1, they have come on strongly beating Melbourne and the Kangaroos in previous weeks to leave them sitting in 8th position on the ladder. Head to head Geelong lead Hawthorn 3-2 over the past 5 matches but this could be an interesting match at Tassie where the Hawks have a great record. Players to watch out for in this game include Shane Crawford and Luke Hodge who have averaged 26 and 25 disposals in the last 4 against the Cats respectively, while Sam Mitchell averages 24. For the Cats, Joel Corey and Cameron Ling may be dangerous as they have averaged 26 and 23 disposals against the Hawks in this time, while Steve Johnson loves playing the Hawks as he has kicked 9 goals against and Paul Chapman 8 goals. Computer Generated Prediction:

Hawthorn	10	27	51	75
Geelong	33	61	85	109

Suggested Bet Geelong -13.5 points at $2.10 - (5/10)

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Melbourne vs Fremantle Both teams are winless thus far after 3 games which is amazing considering many pundits had both these sides to finish in the top 6, some also having Fremantle as premiership contenders. Fremantle have a fantastic side and its going to be hard for the injury depleted Melbourne side to find enough fire power to beat them here. They are missing Neitz & Robertson from their forward, Neitz being their main focal point while their midfield and backline are knocked with injuries also. Fremantle's record over the Demons i nthe past few years is awesome, they have won 4 of the last 5. The Dockers should win this match very comfortably in my opinion. Danger players in this match to watch out for are Matt Pavlich who has kicked 6 goals in his past 3 against Melbourne. Heath Black has averaged 26 disposals in this time against Melbourne while Byron Schammer has averaged 22. Jeff Farmer has kicked 7 goals against his former side also. Melbournes main men in this time have been Aaron Davey & Russel Robertson who have kicked 6 goals each, but Davey's form this year has been appauling and Robertson will be missing so this is a big blow. Travis Johnstone and Brad Green love playing against the Dockers as they have averaged 26 and 22 disposals respectively. Computer Generated Prediction:

Melbourne	25	37	60	84
Fremantle	24	54	91	109

Suggested Bet: Fremantle -19.5 points at $2.10 - (5/10)

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) West Coast vs Carlton Big game here for both teams. The off field troubles continue for West Coast this week with youngster Adam Selwood in the news for the wrong reasons and also Michael Braun getting a huge fine for swearing on tv. On the field though, the Eagles look irresistable and they will look to add to their undefeated start for the year with a victory against the Blues. West Coast currently top of the ladder just look sensational at the moment, the form of Daniel Kerr and Chris Judd is brilliant and its hard to see anyway Carlton can stop it. The news during the week for Carlton also was not good, they learnt their best midfielder Nick Stevens would miss the entire 2007 season with a neck injury he has sustained and thats a massive loss considering the form he was in. Luke Blackwell steps in and he was a superstar in his younger years for his local West Australian team, so he will return to Subiaco today to face the Eagles. Fevola was fantastic last week with an 8 goal haul which brought Carlton from about 50 points down against Essendon to eventually win by 3 points in one of the most amazing games of the past decade. Players to keep an eye on include are Brendan Fevola who has booted 17 goals in the last 4 matches between Carlton & West Coast, Heath Scotland and Matthew Lappin have averaged 21 and 20 disposals effectively. While for West Coast against Carlton in this time, Chad Fletcher has averaged 26 disposals, Michael Braun 24 and Chris Judd 20. This may be a good game, but it has all the signs of a big West Coast win. Looking back to last year and Carlton lead by 42 points in the third quarter before the Eagles clawed back and won by 10. West Coast should be too good though Computer Generated Prediction

West Coast	37	72	93	119
Carlton	16	31	58	79

Suggested Bet West Coast -29.5 line at $1.91 - (6/10)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL: Round 4

Kangaroos vs. Brisbane There is no doubt about it, Brisbane have surprised many with their good form this year. They went deep into the pre-season competition, travelling a lot in that time. They have played well in the first few rounds of the season, but all their efforts over the past few months may take a toll on the young group at some point. The Kangaroos simply must win this match, they are 0-4 so far this season and on the ropes. This is their first game at their new 'home' on the Gold Coast and the team should be keen to win over the new fans. Ultimately, I expect Brisbane to win this game the majority of the time, but Kangaroos offer good value at $3.14.

1/10 Stake – Kangaroos – Pinnacle @ $3.14

Well sussed WBK :clap. Only thing is why the small stake? I know money management should always be an issue but my philosophy is not to waste value with tiny stakes just because they're outsiders. I.e., Back something at 3.14 with the same stake as something at 1.50. Body language on Kangas when they ran out was much superior last night. They looked like they meant business while Bris appeared somewhat blazee to me. Same with Adelaide. I felt their body language was the better at the run-outs. WCE covering -29.5 at Subi (H & A) 2006, 3 from 12 or 3 from 10 to visitors. The three were Richmond, Brisbane and Adelaide. Both Richmond and Brisbane were this time of year and nowhere near the form that Carlton has thus far. I'm very temted by the +29.5 @ 2.00 but the fact Carlton are playing the two rookies bothers me. Taza, turning my monitor upside down did the trick. Richmond, hey! Yeh, Adelaide have an exeptionally good draw this year. That's where I had a pre-season wager on them for top spot.

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) I honestly have no idea what the West Coast vs Carlton game will be like. Glass vs Fevola is the key here. With Stevens out we should hammer them in the middle... but it all comes down to attitude on the day. I'll back West Coast because its at subi... dont like them on the handi-cap though.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Got a piece of under 185.5 @ 1.86 (BF) in the Melbourne/Freo game. Forecast for more showers...slippery ball and ground, as we saw in the game yesterday. I suspect there will be long periods without scoring, and accurate kicking will be tough. There's been a query over Freo's defense, but Ess and Port both kicked stupidly straight...the otehr end has seen only 27 and 25 shots v. Port and Ess, two of the loosest, worst defenses there are...and 15 shots last week v. WC. Melbourne have scored more than 94 only once in their last 10, mainly because they don't get the ball up there!...their defense has been horrible, but a wet day and Freo's lack of scoring punch should see a relatively low score. Could be some value in the Carlton/Eagles over later on...will be interested to see what will be on offer. Saw some 2.30ish for over 185.5 @ BF earler...not sure if that's an accurate reflection...doh...just checked, and should have grabbed it while I could! :( Oh well..some showers forecast for later on anyway, so will see closer to game time. No weather issues in sunny Tassie. Little bit of wind, but doesn't look like any rain about.

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) .

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Wish channel seven could have sound difficulties also! How long you had electricity down there Taza? :unsure

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Rivers and travis Johnstone are out.

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

Hawks +8.5 vs Geelong (-109) ---- 0.5 units gl

win :cheers

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Carlton just playing the one rookie rather than the two as listed last night.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) INJURIES: Melbourne: Bell (concussion), Jones (ankle), Whelan (hamstring), Wheatley (shoulder), Brown (calf) Fremantle: Nil REPORTS: Nil CHANGES: Melbourne: Moloney (groin) replaced by Bate. Johnstone (hamstring) replaced by Sylvia. Wow, are Melbourne having a good run!

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Just when you thought the brand of football was improving, reality set in this week with an awful lot of crap dished up for the viewers this weekend. From my perspective, the two best matches were played in the worst conditions. The Collingwood-Port clash was played the way football should be played. The weather made it tough and they both rose to the occasion. Collingwood ran out of numbers in the end and should hold their heads up. The match at Launceston today was terrific between two very committed teams that both deserved to win. Whilst the conversion of both teams wasn’t great, they both gave it everything they had and it was the Hawks that were fortunate enough to be in front at the siren. Into the bin you can throw that match at AAMI. Just stick them into a cage and let them fight to the death. Are there any vacancies in the Super 14 next season? I have two candidates ready to go. That was rubbish last night, but it was exactly what we expected. Injuries are weighing a lot of teams down and it’s now affecting the results of games. An average team with a small injury list could cause some damage in September. Having said that, a non-Victorian premier looks certain again this season. They look heads and shoulders above the Victorian threats. On the punting side, I’m showing a small loss for the weekend. The Sandilands goal for Fremantle in the dying stages cost me a profit. Oh well, I got a good run for my money anyhow. So after 4 weeks of the season, I think it’s time to take stock and evaluate how well we are doing on the punt so far. I’m running at a slight loss but have recovered from a poor Round 1. I’ll detail how I’m going, but I think everyone should assess how they are going so far, and how they are measuring up against one another. Let’s hope the standard of footy improves next week, because this week was average. I’m looking forward to the Anzac Day game as well as the Dockers-Crows clash. See you next week.

AFL Rounds 1-4

Bets : 18 Winners : 8 Outlay : 18 units Return : 16.15 units Loss : 1.85 units

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) The Launceston match was a good game and real honest contest and I thought the Carrara game was better than it seemed, in tricky conditions - I suppose they always are when we get the right result. The worst game was West Coast v Carlton. Not West Coast, but the pathetic effort by Carlton (bit of personal pocket here also). It looked like 24 playing 14 so much was Carlton's non preparedness to get to the contest. Not sure what Pagan was up to with the public praise for his players for trying. Maybe already thinking about the return clash. I bet he told them something different about how they really went. Had an interesting weekend with the bookies. Gamebookers cancelled a 3.60 winner on me while Lasseters have credited me a winner that lost. I've notified both and Gamebookers have payed up and Lasseters are yet to make the adjustment, which is just the way you want it. ;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) My funny story from the weekend?... Tipped 7 of 8 winners (missed Kangaroos)...and still lost $! Had some kind of brain fade yesterday, taking the under in Melbourne, when Freo were CLEARLY the better team... ...and then taking over 185 @ West Coast, only to get the biggest down pour Perth has seen for months, and Carlton kicking, what, 4.15?! Just too comical to be crabby! Early peek at next week, and I see Port are favs!?...Saints in a canter ;)

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

Hawks +8.5 vs Geelong (-109) ---- 0.5 units gl

Sorry mate, but with no reasoning behind your picks I really can't see the point in posting like that. Add a bit of reasoning and get into the banter :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

...and then taking over 185 @ West Coast, only to get the biggest down pour Perth has seen for months, and Carlton kicking, what, 4.15?! Just too comical to be crabby!

Funniest part was you were almost on pace until it stopped pouring, then the scoring dried up also.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Yeah...I missed the first 20 minutes 'cause I dind't think it started until 5 Eastern... ...total was 42ish with about 5 minutes left in the first...and I thought, yes!...until that split second later when I saw everything was drenched, and my next thought was 'loser', given Fev was really gunna struggle to do anything in the conditions. If no-one minds I'll ditch this thread now and start this week's, given there's a game tomorrow! :tongue2 Saints out to 2.60?!!!! Is someone having a laugh?!! :beer