AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

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Friday 20 April 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Richmond v Western Bulldogs (10:40 BST)	2.56		1.52	105%	Related markets...Match Result
Saturday 21 April 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Collingwood v Port Adelaide (04:00 BST)	1.93		2.02	102%	Related markets...Match Result
St Kilda v Essendon (04:00 BST)	1.67		2.32	103%	Related markets...Match Result
Adelaide v Sydney (10:40 BST)	1.72		2.26	103%	Related markets...Match Result
Sunday 22 April 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Hawthorn v Geelong (03:00 BST)	2.58		1.55	104%	Related markets...Match Result
Melbourne v Fremantle (04:00 BST)	2.60		1.47	107%	Related markets...Match Result
West Coast v Carlton (07:40 BST)	1.20		4.60	106%	Related markets...Match Result

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Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

Overall Table
#	Team	P	W	L	D	For	Agt	%	Pts
1	West Coast	3	3	0	0	262	218	120.2	12
2	Geelong	3	2	1	0	364	254	143.3	8
3	Brisbane	3	2	1	0	240	190	126.3	8
4	Sydney	3	2	1	0	257	215	119.5	8
5	Adelaide	3	2	1	0	271	240	112.9	8
6	St Kilda	3	2	1	0	259	230	112.6	8
7	Essendon	3	2	1	0	349	311	112.2	8
8	Hawthorn	3	2	1	0	251	233	107.7	8
9	Collingwood	3	2	1	0	272	256	106.3	8
10	Port Adelaide	3	2	1	0	306	296	103.4	8
11	Carlton	3	2	1	0	324	382	84.82	8
12	W.Bulldogs	3	1	2	0	251	319	78.68	4
13	Kangaroos	3	0	3	0	253	295	85.76	0
14	Fremantle	3	0	3	0	287	344	83.43	0
15	Richmond	3	0	3	0	260	318	81.76	0
16	Melbourne	3	0	3	0	213	318	66.98	0

Match Totals
		Quarters				Halves
#	Team	W	L	D	WR%	W	L	D	WR%
1	Geelong	9	3	0	75	5	1	0	83.33
2	Brisbane	9	3	0	75	3	3	0	50
3	Essendon	8	4	0	66.67	4	2	0	66.67
4	West Coast	7	5	0	58.33	4	2	0	66.67
5	Kangaroos	7	5	0	58.33	2	4	0	33.33
6	Sydney	6	6	0	50	5	1	0	83.33
7	Adelaide	6	6	0	50	4	2	0	66.67
8	Port Adelaide	6	6	0	50	3	3	0	50
9	St Kilda	5	6	1	41.67	4	2	0	66.67
10	Hawthorn	5	7	0	41.67	4	2	0	66.67
11	Carlton	5	7	0	41.67	2	4	0	33.33
12	Fremantle	5	7	0	41.67	2	4	0	33.33
13	Richmond	5	7	0	41.67	2	4	0	33.33
14	Melbourne	5	7	0	41.67	0	6	0	0
15	Collingwood	4	8	0	33.33	3	3	0	50
16	W.Bulldogs	3	8	1	25	1	5	0	16.67

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Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

Quarter Averages
		For				Against
#	Team	¼	½	¾	FT	¼	½	¾	FT
1	West Coast	27	24	17	20	19	16	20	17
2	Geelong	34	31	30	27	21	25	17	22
3	Brisbane	20	25	20	15	18	10	12	24
4	Sydney	26	12	19	28	23	23	19	6
5	Adelaide	24	25	24	17	21	16	21	22
6	St Kilda	24	16	27	19	19	18	17	22
7	Essendon	38	25	27	26	17	28	34	25
8	Hawthorn	10	19	30	25	21	16	19	22
9	Collingwood	18	21	22	30	26	25	19	15
10	Port Adelaide	16	28	41	18	31	24	22	21
11	Carlton	23	23	30	32	38	35	30	25
12	W.Bulldogs	23	20	19	22	34	19	27	27
13	Kangaroos	20	25	17	22	14	26	25	34
14	Fremantle	24	20	29	22	26	19	42	27
15	Richmond	25	25	25	12	25	15	34	33
16	Melbourne	23	12	15	21	24	33	33	16

Scoring Statistics
		Avg Score		Avg Margin		Total Score		Round Total
#	Team	For	Agt	Win	Lose	High	Low	High	Low
1	West Coast	87	73	15	0	101	74	0	0
2	Geelong	121	85	65	20	162	93	1	0
3	Brisbane	80	63	39	27	102	69	0	0
4	Sydney	86	72	22	1	96	73	0	0
5	Adelaide	90	80	31	31	110	74	0	0
6	St Kilda	86	77	41	52	116	50	0	1
7	Essendon	116	104	21	3	122	105	0	0
8	Hawthorn	84	78	22	25	116	44	0	1
9	Collingwood	91	85	14	12	115	75	0	0
10	Port Adelaide	102	99	17	24	122	63	1	0
11	Carlton	108	127	10	78	125	84	1	0
12	W.Bulldogs	84	106	20	44	113	66	0	0
13	Kangaroos	84	98	0	14	104	70	0	0
14	Fremantle	96	115	0	19	112	70	0	0
15	Richmond	87	106	0	19	98	72	0	0
16	Melbourne	71	106	0	35	94	57	0	1

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Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

Margin Breakdown - Basic
		U 15.5		O 15.5		U 39.5		O 39.5
#	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	West Coast	2	0	1	0	3	0	0	0
2	Geelong	0	0	2	1	0	1	2	0
3	Brisbane	0	0	2	1	1	1	1	0
4	Sydney	0	1	2	0	2	1	0	0
5	Adelaide	0	0	2	1	2	1	0	0
6	St Kilda	0	0	2	1	1	0	1	1
7	Essendon	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0
8	Hawthorn	0	0	2	1	2	1	0	0
9	Collingwood	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0
10	Port Adelaide	0	0	2	1	2	1	0	0
11	Carlton	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	1
12	W.Bulldogs	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	1
13	Kangaroos	0	1	0	2	0	3	0	0
14	Fremantle	0	1	0	2	0	3	0	0
15	Richmond	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0
16	Melbourne	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	1

Margin Breakdown - Detailed
		1-19 pts		20-39 pts		40-59 pts		60+ pts
#	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	West Coast	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2	Geelong	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0
3	Brisbane	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
4	Sydney	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
5	Adelaide	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
6	St Kilda	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0
7	Essendon	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
8	Hawthorn	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
9	Collingwood	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
10	Port Adelaide	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
11	Carlton	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
12	W.Bulldogs	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0
13	Kangaroos	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
14	Fremantle	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
15	Richmond	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
16	Melbourne	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Look for Carlton on the handi-cap perhaps. West Coast should win, but they dont win by big margins... average 28 or so last year as their winning margin. And Carlton will be brimming with confidence after the fight back and almost had West Coast last year except for a superb comeback. Great value on Port Adelaide. They have so much class and pace in the midfield with the burgoyne and cornes brothers and a super ruckmen. If Tredrea fires they'll be up there this year. And a double on Bulldogs-Geelong and that would have me set for the round.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

Round 4
Match 1	Last 5	Odds	Match 5
Richmond	2	$2.11	Adelaide	4	$1.79
W.Bulldogs	3	$1.64	Sydney	1	$1.91
Match 2			Match 6
St Kilda	3	$1.91	Hawthorn	2	$2.37
Essendon	2	$1.79	Geelong	3	$1.51
Match 3			Match 7
Collingwood	3	$1.84	Melbourne	1	$2.19
Port Adelaide	2	$1.86	Fremantle	4	$1.60
Match 4			Match 8
Kangaroos	1	$2.88	West Coast	4	$1.36
Brisbane	4	$1.34	Carlton	1	$2.81

Just trying out something different again here, last year before every match i wrote some functions that would generate some predicted odds for the upcoming round of matches which would give me a guide to the round before the real odds were released. The odds are generated based on all the data in the tables i posted above and i also found this a good guide, in a way its sort of like a way of rating each team but in a dollar term. If a team is under the odds then its a match worth taking another look at. Theres not much that stands out this week, but just say for example my rating above had Adelaide at $1.60 but in real life they were paying $1.80 then its a match that would certainly have some value in it. Obviously there are some minor flaws in it, like above if West Coast were paying $1.36 then Carlton would be alot longer odds than $2.81 but the idea in general is just to give a guide. Last season it seemed to help me so will post it on PL at the start of every round and see how it goes this year. :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) ads, would it be better for you to work the data into percentage chance of winning and then form the odds from that? For example, if one ends up a 67% chance and the other a 33% chance then you have true opinion odds of 1.50 and 3.00 respectively.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) This market available at Michael Eskander :lol;

DOES RICHO HAVE THE YIPS ?
20/04/2007 7:40:00 PM	Richo Kicks More Goals Than Behinds For Match Richo Kicks More Behinds Than Goals For Match	1.65 2.20

I imagine frustrated Richmond supporters (and people like me who've backed them twice :wall) will be diving for the 2.20. He's probably due to be on fire and frustrate us even more though. :wall :lol

Date Description Result Disp Kck Mrk Hbl Tkl Gls Bhd F/F F/A H/O 13 Apr Collingwood, Round 3 90-115 L 12 11 8 1 1 3 4 2 2 0 7 Apr Sydney, Round 2 72-88 L 10 9 7 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 Apr Carlton, Round 1 98-115 L 15 13 10 2 0 3 2 2 2 0

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Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Cant even believe there is a market for this :eek :eek :eek Nice spotting there Ash. :clap

[rod_steel]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Awesome stuff Ads - do you maintain all these stats yourself? Thanks for sharing

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Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

Awesome stuff Ads - do you maintain all these stats yourself? Thanks for sharing

Cheers mate. Yeah i generate all these results myself on an excel sheet i created. :ok

[WeetBixKid]

AFL: Round 4 Richmond vs. Western Bulldogs Richmond isn't playing badly at the moment and could easily be 2-2 instead of 0-4. The Bulldogs have suffered a few injuries in recent weeks and seem to have lost their way the last two weeks. There game plan has been exposed and shut down, resulting in them losing the last two games. The Bulldogs will go in big favourites, but I'm on Richmond at this price.

2/10 Stake - Richmond – Pinnacle @ $2.90

Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide This game is as close as the odds suggest, but I am slightly in favour of Collingwood. Playing at home with a big crowd behind them they should get home. Port have been gallant this season, but the Pies at the MCG is a tough ask. With James Clement back into the Magpies side and Tredrea still working his way back into the season I can't see Port Adelaide having the firepower to kick a big enough score to win.

4/10 Stake - Collingwood – Pinnacle @ $1.94

St. Kilda vs. Essendon With Nick Riewoldt back into the side the Saints look a much sharper unit. Essendon have surprised many with their start to the season, but surrendering a 48 point lead last week they can't come back from that demoralisation in my opinion. The St. Kilda forward line and midfield will be too much for the Bombers. Saints in a canter!

5/10 Stake – St. Kilda – Pinnacle @ $1.69

Adelaide vs. Sydney Adelaide has an excellent record against Sydney in recent times, particularly at home. The Swans only just got over the Lions at home last week, a game which most expected them to dominate. The Swans also struggled against lowly Richmond two weeks ago. Adelaide have progressed since their shock first round loss to Essendon and are playing he sort of football we have come to expect of them. These odds are nice for the Crows, so Adelaide it is!

9/10 Stake – Adelaide – Pinnacle @ $1.76

Kangaroos vs. Brisbane There is no doubt about it, Brisbane have surprised many with their good form this year. They went deep into the pre-season competition, travelling a lot in that time. They have played well in the first few rounds of the season, but all their efforts over the past few months may take a toll on the young group at some point. The Kangaroos simply must win this match, they are 0-4 so far this season and on the ropes. This is their first game at their new 'home' on the Gold Coast and the team should be keen to win over the new fans. Ultimately, I expect Brisbane to win this game the majority of the time, but Kangaroos offer good value at $3.14.

1/10 Stake – Kangaroos – Pinnacle @ $3.14

Melbourne vs. Fremantle Both sides are off to 0-4 starts to the season, Melbourne can be excused because of injury, but Fremantle have little to blame. Fremantle are out of form, Melbourne are depleted but trying hard. Fremantle is making the long treck over to Melbourne after a week of distractions off the field. Neale Daniher's boys simply must pull out a win, I expect Cameron Bruce to star for Melbourne and Jeff White to towel Aaron Sandilands in the ruck. I like Melbourne here at $2.75.

5/10 Stake – Melbourne – Expekt @ $2.75

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Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) :welcome to PL WeetBixKid. :welcome Just moved your post in to this thread mate, we usually just keep the one thread open rather than having several. Fantastic right up there too. Look forward to seeing more quality like that through this season. Great stuff :ok

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[blackcrow]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Richmond win by margin 1-39 Two desperate teams looking to get a much needed win. Both have been struck by injuries to key players so they will go in undermanned. I like Richmond to edge this as they have been in a winning position in each of their last 3 games and let themselves down by not going on to win it. The Bulldogs on the other hand have made quite a few mistakes in their last couple of games and i think it will be the class of Richardson that will be enough for a tigers victory.

[BURNTUA CRISP]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Score Predictor

Richmond 82 Western Bulldogs 94 Collingwood 100 Port Adelaide 91 St.Kilda 88 Essendon 107 Kangaroos 78 Brisbane 95 Adelaide 72 Sydney 83

A terrific round of matches with plenty of value on offer and a few upsets on the cards as well. Richmond are ready to take a big scalp whether it be this week or next week against the Eagles. Their inability to play out a full game has me leaning to the Dogs. Big Richo is the key and if he can be subdued by Harris the Dogs are half way home. The Dogs speed of ball movement is no longer fearsome as just about every team can play or counter that style. The Dogs are a 5 goal worse team at the MCG compared to the Dome but should hold off the Tigers. The Collingwood-Port game is 50/50. Port play well in Melbourne, but Brogan’s loss will be felt. The Pies just keep grinding out the wins and with Clement (and possibly Johnson) back, they should hang on. The Bombers midfield let them down last week and will find themselves under more pressure against the Saints. Mal Michael was horribly exposed last week, and facing either Riewoldt or Koschitzke this week, perhaps retirement was the correct option. The addition of Ball to the Saints midfield gives them the edge. The Kangaroos were coached horribly last week and Laidley faces the master this week. Jon Brown will have a night out and the misery will continue for the Gold Coast Roos. The match at AAMI will be a carbon copy of any Sydney-WestCoast game of the last few years. It will resemble a rugby match for much of the night. Perhaps the injury factor against Adelaide will swing the game the Sydney’s way, but it should be a head bobbing finish.

Suggeted Bets

WESTERN BULLDOGS Margin 1-39 COLLINGWOOD Win BRISBANE Line -18.5

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) The whole world on Richmond!! :eek Madness. The Dogs have played 3 definate top 6 teams...beaten by Adelaide and St. Kilda, who are two of the best defensive midfields going around...who have bothered the Dogs greatly in recent times for that very reason... ...yet, here we are, playing a genuine bottom 4 team, who have given up less than 13 goals just once in their last 10 games, and have lost their last 3 to the Dogs, allowing 119, 167 and 100 points. Oh, they've been in front late in games...blah, blah...yeah? And they've still yet to get within 16 points of anyone, inc. Carlton and Collingwood, fellow bottom 4 contenders! Dogs win, very likely cover the spread...likely win by 40+ even... ...but 1.50 is a MASSIVE price for them here imo, and I'll be having a decent dip at the ML. "The Dogs speed of ball movement is no longer fearsome as just about every team can play or counter that style." They can?? How'd teams who aren't WC, Adelaide, St. K and Sydney go countering them last year? How'd Geelong go in round 1? Unless Richmond do the 'keepings off', ala Adelaide game last year, this one won't even be close.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Reckon your summation of the Doggies to beat Richmond is spot on Taza, and the reasons you outlined are very valid points...Doggies look good things to me tonight. Only thing I disagree with is how you can say Collingwood will finish bottom 4...I will have a wager with you that we don't finsih bottom four if you are up to the challenge. Pies should have lost to the Kangas but kicked a surge of goals in last quarter to win...We served it up to West Coast to lose by a couple of goals in Perth, not many teams can serve it up to the Eagles in Perth...Last week Richmond had us on toast but we managed to win quite comfotably in the end, against a team that has beaten us three of the last four times we played them. We beat Richmond without Clement, Didak, Buckley, Johnson, Holland and the squib Lonie who are still to come back into the side, fairly handy players I am sure you will agree...We played 3 first gamers against Richmond where two kicked multiple goals, and the other was very serviceable...So one would expect Collingwood to improve if anything when these players return. Pies finished 5th last year after 22 Rounds, and basically only lost Chris Tarrant, who had an average of less than 2 goals a game. Paul Medhurst has kicked 8 i think in 3 games, which is a better return than Tarrant...Pies have a solid defence, workmanlike midfield, and forwards who are capable of kicking a respectable score...Throw in some youngsters with a bit pace and skill, and we have a side capable of matching it with anyone in the League. We definitely won't win the Grand Final, that will be either Sydney or West Coast, but we definitely will not be bottom 4. :dude

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Just a small one for tonight: Western Bulldogs / Australia (RL) (-107) ----- 0.5 units gl

[888]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) I'll join the bulldogs -13.5 bandwagon tonight. Agree with what Tazad has said. And I reckon Richmond fans will get pissed off at their team :lol like usual tonight. Joking aside, just 3/10 bet for me as I haven't been up to date with AFL. G'luck every1 :hope

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Yep, gotta agree dogs are clear favourite tonight and will probably win? Big issue for me is both have awful focus thus far. WBD the last two but they showed same signs in Bris NAB cup game I noticed - which is a real worry for season overall now that it's cropped up again. Are dogs players a little browned off similar to sydney players prior to Eade's sacking there? Are these two teams suffering from over-coached? I don't know but both are lacking get up and go motivation thus far. It's a matter of who can turn that around tonight. I suspect WBD might be ready??, but for me I've got no objection to the boys trying the price on Richmond tonight. Cross out, and he's been about their only player with consistant GO this season. *Late - Cross out, Robbins in. Disagree with Taza's statement on Collingwood also. I doubt they can go as high as bottom-4. Bottom-2 is best I see them IMO.

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Cross is such a good player. Bulldogs will need to work extra hard to make up for his loss.

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

Just a small one for tonight: Western Bulldogs / Australia (RL) (-107) ----- 0.5 units gl

win

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)

This market available at Michael Eskander :lol;

DOES RICHO HAVE THE YIPS ?
20/04/2007 7:40:00 PM	Richo Kicks More Goals Than Behinds For Match Richo Kicks More Behinds Than Goals For Match	1.65 2.20

Richo kicks 3 goals 2 behinds but favourite backers were saved by the very funny OOB.

[888]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) 14.16 thats the final figure for Richmond. Did any1 have a punt on the market richo kicks more behinds than goals ? :lol Wonder if they will have those kind of market again next week for Richmond :)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Disagree with Taza's statement on Collingwood also. I doubt they can go as high as bottom-4. Bottom-2 is best I see them IMO. LOL!!. ..yeah, not sure they are either bjv...Richmond and Kangaroos are definates...Melbourne looking pretty likely...Collingwood fighting out 13th with Hawthorn and Carlton ;) Ash, I have to say that I'm not sure I agree... ...definately not the Eade part!...Lack of focus? Not sure what you've seen. Interesting...would like to hear what you think. Cross out really hurts my Super Coach team!! Currently sitting 280th overall (over 100,000 teams), but now relying on Lindsey Thomas to get a decent score as an emergency...coming off a disasterous 6 last week!! But, as for the game, we have some guy called Scott West who goes alright in a similar role ;) Boyd was outstanding aswell. I have to say that I'd had a few brews and had the one-eyed supporters hat on, but I felt all night we had the total rough end of the umpiring?!...either way, never really in doubt. Ash...you're the 'situation' man...how do the teams west of Melbourne come up after the showdown/derby? I actually like them all this week!...not sure whether to hang back or not. Port are clearly the better team today...aren't they? The Pies 2 wins v. definate bottom 4 teams ;) Port playing some good, free flowing footy, and I don't really see how Collingwood score enough to keep up. Playing just one game at the 'G last year can't do them any good, but still... Essendon/St. K is an interesting one...Saints have trouble scoring without either Riewoldt or Gehrig...their "containment" game that beat the Dogs won't be any good v. the Bombers who are no. 1 for kicks and aren't afraid at all to bomb it into the forward line. Saints no certainty at all, but 2.20 for Ess isnt all the appealing either... My hope is that we get an unrealistically high total with Ess's games and St. K's big score last week...but even that's doubtful... Brisbane far too good for the Kanga's...another low scorer. 1.40 looks a decent price, but will be more interesting in the total I think. Why won't Adelaide win? -3.5 look very nice to me! Won 7 of the last 8 meetings. Both teams started slowly and building, but keeping Hall quiet will be far easier for the Crows than Daniel Merrett/Brennan! The main game I do like this week is Freo -14.5 (again, hoping their record after a WC game isn't too bad) Melbourne are total rubbish! Freo have lost 2 games mainly due to their opp (Ess and Port) both kicking rediculously straight, and a red-hot WC... Dee's have allowed 38, 31 and 34 shots so far...the Freo forward line should have a field day. Melbourne have injuries at both ends, and have gained the least I50's so far (41 a game!), and it should be a total flogging! Freo won 7 of last 10 @ MCG...actually beaten Melbourne in 2 of last 3. "A few showers" forecast...but given a decent day, the Dockers should get a big win, imo.

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) .

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Where are you getting a total Mr F?

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) ^ crappy TAB Taz ...

[jeffers]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) For Aussie bookies like Winbet, Domebet, Betstar, Betchoice, Portlandbet, Centrebet, Sportingbet - is there an odds comparison site available? Would make things much easier :ok