aliando Posted March 23, 2007 Share Posted March 23, 2007 trialled something a while back with reasonable results and have now got a further version updated - basically it goes along the lines of rating each match and then giving a figure to represent the match outcome. I'll use this outcome to place bets where there is/appears to be value. I'll be using real money but only small amounts. I believe that this system should produce better results later in the season than the start, but I'll be using the mexican, argentinian and russian leagues as testers for other leagues through the summer (more may be added depending upon time constraints, as i've got other things that i'm supposed to be getting on with :$). I'm hoping to have the english and welsh leagues updated with this seasons data soon, but will continue with what i've got for now. Starting Bank = 200pts :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 23, 2007 Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' Good Luck mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 23, 2007 Author Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' cheers staffy first bets... mexican league queretero v guadalajara draw @ 3.25 away @ 3.30 0.5pts on both with bet365 atlante v UNAM home @ 2.26 draw @ 3.30 0.5pts on both with betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 23, 2007 Author Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' welsh league haverfordwest v welshpool draw @ 9/4 away @ 23/20 0.5pts on both with sporting odds *better odds available* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 24, 2007 Author Share Posted March 24, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' english conference st albans v kidderminster away @ 11/8 with bet365 draw @ 3.65 with betfair 0.5pts on both Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted March 24, 2007 Share Posted March 24, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' :hope good luck with this Ali. be watching with intrest mate.:ok and occasionally backing so no pressure;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 24, 2007 Author Share Posted March 24, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' :hope good luck with this Ali. be watching with intrest mate.:ok and occasionally backing so no pressure;) yeah, no pressure at all then :eek :lol - :hope for both of us mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 24, 2007 Author Share Posted March 24, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' welsh league haverfordwest v welshpool draw @ 9/4 away @ 23/20 0.5pts on both with sporting odds *better odds available* :D welshpool win 1-0 profit of 0.08pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 24, 2007 Author Share Posted March 24, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' english conference st albans v kidderminster away @ 11/8 with bet365 draw @ 3.65 with betfair 0.5pts on both :D finishes 1-1 profit of 0.73pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 24, 2007 Author Share Posted March 24, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' may start to change the staking around a little, so that if i win, its more than 0.08pts :\ - will aim for equal returns, but at least the st albans game balanced it out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 24, 2007 Author Share Posted March 24, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' mexican league queretero v guadalajara draw @ 3.25 away @ 3.30 0.5pts on both with bet365 :D finshes 2-2 - profit of 65pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' :D finshes 2-2 - profit of 65pts Yeah a bigger profit alright :eek:eek ;);) Think you missed a decimal point :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' may start to change the staking around a little' date=' so that if i win, its more than 0.08pts :\ - will aim for equal returns, but at least the st albans game balanced it out![/quote'] Given what it seems you are doing, wouldn't it just be easier to lay the home team for a fixed backer's stake? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 25, 2007 Author Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' Yeah a bigger profit alright :eek:eek ;);) Think you missed a decimal point :ok :$ yeah, thats 0.65pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 25, 2007 Author Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' Given what it seems you are doing' date=' wouldn't it just be easier to lay the home team for a fixed backer's stake?[/quote'] i have thought about this - not all bets will be on the home/draw or away/draw - some bets will be 1pt on the straight win. If there is enough liquidity in the lay on betfair, and it returns more points post-commission, i will use that :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 25, 2007 Author Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' atlante v UNAM home @ 2.26 draw @ 3.30 0.5pts on both with betfair :D finishes 1-1 returning a profit of 0.59 Start bank - 200pts No. of Bets - 4 No. Of winning bets - 4 Strike Rate - 100% Profit/loss - +2.05 Current Balance - 202.05pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galronix Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' :D finishes 1-1 returning a profit of 0.59 Start bank - 200pts No. of Bets - 4 No. Of winning bets - 4 Strike Rate - 100% Profit/loss - +2.05 Current Balance - 202.05pts Strike Rate - 100% :ok Cracking stuff mate. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 25, 2007 Author Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' cheers Gal - cant see it staying that way for too long, but as long as it remains in profit.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted March 25, 2007 Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' :clap :clap Keep it going ali.:clap :clap Like I said no pressure.. Excellent so far mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 25, 2007 Author Share Posted March 25, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' :clap :clap Keep it going ali.:clap :clap Like I said no pressure.. Excellent so far mate. cheers mate - hope you made something, and hopefully a bit more than the 0.08pts on welshpool :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 26, 2007 Author Share Posted March 26, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' welsh league cefn druids v llanelli away @ 1.73 with bet365 (1.75 currently available at expekt) 1pt win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 27, 2007 Author Share Posted March 27, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' welsh league cefn druids v llanelli away @ 1.73 with bet365 (1.75 currently available at expekt) 1pt win. Llanelli win 1-0 - returns 0.73pts profit :ok Start bank - 200pts No. of Bets - 5 No. Of winning bets - 5 Strike Rate - 100% Profit/loss - +2.78 Current Balance - 202.78pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted March 28, 2007 Share Posted March 28, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' Nice going Ali.:clap Keep it coming mate.:cheers :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 28, 2007 Share Posted March 28, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' Good start Ali. Lets hope it continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 28, 2007 Author Share Posted March 28, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' cheers lads - hoping this goes well, and trying not to over-bet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 29, 2007 Author Share Posted March 29, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' first one for the weekend (bets will be added here if matched); mexican league tigres v monterrey home @ 2.06 with betfair (:eek cant believe this price - very little liquidity in betfair at the moment, so keep an eye on it) 1pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 30, 2007 Author Share Posted March 30, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' english conference grays v halifax home @ 2.25 @ VC Bet - 0.61pts draw @ 3.45 @ betfair - 0.39pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 30, 2007 Author Share Posted March 30, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' english conference soutport v stafford lay southport @ 2.90 0.99pts liability to win 0.52pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' english conference soutport v stafford lay southport @ 2.90 0.99pts liability to win 0.52pts someone had to break the good spell - had to be staffy's boys didnt it :lol Southport 5 - 1 Stafford Rangers loss of 0.99pts :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 31, 2007 Author Share Posted March 31, 2007 Re: computer says 'yes' english conference grays v halifax home @ 2.25 @ VC Bet - 0.61pts draw @ 3.45 @ betfair - 0.39pts Grays 1 - 0 Halifax returns 0.37pts profit overall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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