aliando Posted March 13, 2007 Share Posted March 13, 2007 gonna test something out and do it with real money, so :hope it doesnt go tits up. basic idea is this (and please tell me if my maths is out here...:\) Number of outcomes in a football match = 3 thus the % chance of predicting one outcome = 33.3rec% thus the outcome of 3 games = 33.3%x33.3%x33.3% = 3.7%using the discarded martingale technique to 3 games only;first lay to win 2pts. if a loss, second lay to win 4pts if loss again, third lay to win 8pts if this lost also, line ended with a maximum total loss of 14ptseach bet will be laying a team that is at maximum evens, thus at any stage, a win will return a minimum profit of 2pts per line and that line is closed in profit (after commission, the profit returned will be 1.90pts rather than 2.00 - i intend to continue using the staking set out above for the foreseeable future but may have to alter the strategy to odds <1.90 if this is required). going back to the stats;in order to break even, i will need to win 14 points for every losing line this means i will need to win 7 lines to cancel out one loss in % terms, this equates to losing a maximum of 12.5% of the linesso, if i'm right, the chances of getting 3 games wrongly layed is 3.70% compared to needing a break even figure of not losing more than 12.5% of the lines. the main thing to obviously be aware of is that the teams that are odds on are odds on for a reason - they are deemed to have a better than statistical chance of winning, which is hopefully where my careful selectioning skills will come in :unsure. I will be considering ANY football match from around the world. hope that makes sense? :unsure all comments welcomed :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 13, 2007 Author Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines should add that all bets will be with betfair unless stated. and so onto the first bets... Line 1 First Lay: West Brom (v Crystal Palace) matched @ 1.74 Line 2 First Lay: Morecombe (v Altrincham) matched @ 1.67 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted March 13, 2007 Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Excellent Idea, I am sure you will have good results with this. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 13, 2007 Author Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Excellent Idea' date=' I am sure you will have good results with this. :clap[/quote'] cheers mate - hoping for a good start in order to give me a bit of confidence :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 13, 2007 Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Good luck ali. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 13, 2007 Author Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Good luck ali. cheers mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 13, 2007 Author Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Line 3 First Lay: St Johnstone (away at Partick) matched at 1.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 13, 2007 Author Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines edited the first post, adding th words in bold each bet will be laying a team that is at maximum evens, thus at any stage, a win will return a minimum profit of 2pts per line and that line is closed in profit. for those lines that go onto the 2nd and 3rd lay, the loss in the previous lay is likely to be under 2pts (or 4pts for a 2nd lay), thus the profit should be slightly higher. and so far both morecombe and st johnstone losing 1-0 :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 13, 2007 Author Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines :D - happy with the start Line 2 Morcombe lose 1-0 - profit of 1.90 after commission Line completed Line 3 St Johnstone lose 2-0 - profit of 1.90 after commission Line completed Overall Stats Number of Winning Lines Completed: 2 Number of Losing Lines Completed: 0 Number of Lines Still in Play: 1 Overall Profit/loss: +3.80pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 13, 2007 Author Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines edited into first post: (after commission, the profit returned will be 1.90pts rather than 2.00 - i intend to continue using the staking set out above for the foreseeable future but may have to alter the strategy to odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 13, 2007 Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted March 13, 2007 Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Well done mate. Nice one. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 13, 2007 Author Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines cheers lads - long way to go yet before i can tell whether its a worthwhile system. (and 4 hours with no-one questioning the maths, so thats gotta be worth one of these :nana) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted March 13, 2007 Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines cheers lads - long way to go yet before i can tell whether its a worthwhile system. (and 4 hours with no-one questioning the maths, so thats gotta be worth one of these :nana) :ok Just wait til Slappy gets hold of it! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 13, 2007 Author Share Posted March 13, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Just wait til Slappy gets hold of it! :lol i've got my dunce's cap ready and waiting :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 14, 2007 Author Share Posted March 14, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Line 1 First Lay: West Brom lose 3-2 Line completed Overall Stats Number of Winning Lines Completed: 3 Number of Losing Lines Completed: 0 Number of Lines Still in Play: 0 Overall Profit/loss: +5.70pts :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 14, 2007 Share Posted March 14, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Excellent start Aliando. Keep up the good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 14, 2007 Author Share Posted March 14, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Excellent start Aliando. Keep up the good work. cheers mate - sadly the only way to go from here is down, but :hope for a long plateau first ;) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 19, 2007 Author Share Posted March 19, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Line 4 First Lay: Benfica (away @ Amadora) matched @ 1.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 19, 2007 Author Share Posted March 19, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Line 4 First Lay: Benfica (away @ Amadora) matched @ 1.65 bastuds won 1-0 with an 81st minute goal :wall Line 4 goes to the second stage with a current loss of 1.30pts - next bet to win 4pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 23, 2007 Author Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Line 4 remains in play. Line 5 First Lay: Maastricht (v FC Eindhoven) matched @ 1.70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 23, 2007 Author Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Line 6 First Lay: Wycombe (v Boston) matched @ 1.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 23, 2007 Author Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Line 5 First Lay: Maastricht (v FC Eindhoven) matched @ 1.70 :nana - 87th minute equaliser for eindhoven Overall Stats Number of Winning Lines Completed: 4 Number of Losing Lines Completed: 0 Number of Lines Still in Play: 2 Overall Profit/loss: +7.60pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 23, 2007 Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Nice one. Dont you just love those late goals for a wining bet. Killer when they go against you though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 23, 2007 Author Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Nice one. Dont you just love those late goals for a wining bet. Killer when they go against you though. makes up for the benfica game, i spose! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 23, 2007 Author Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Line 6 First Lay: Wycombe (v Boston) matched @ 1.60 :nana finishes 0-0 Overall Stats Number of Winning Lines Completed: 5 Number of Losing Lines Completed: 0 Number of Lines Still in Play: 1 Overall Profit/loss: +9.50pts :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 23, 2007 Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Gets better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 23, 2007 Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Bloody hell Ali, this is easy! Great idea mate,So far you'e not even needed the Martindale aspect! This time net year we'll be millionaires !:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 23, 2007 Author Share Posted March 23, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines cheers lads - i've a horse laying system that produced a wonderful start but has nose-dived, so i'll reserve my excitement for now, but it is a promising start. there is one line still open to martingale, but i'm of the thinking that I'll leave the second and third lays in each line to the UK leagues where i at least have a little knowledge rather than leaving it all to the stats and value method. lets see how this pans out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted March 24, 2007 Share Posted March 24, 2007 Re: aliando's laying football lines Sweet. Well done. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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