Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion

[Crouch Potato]

TAB has got the match odds markets up: MELBOURNE $1.25 WESTS TIGERS $3.75 BRISBANE $1.45 NORTH QLD $2.65 WARRIORS $1.60 PARRAMATTA $2.25 CRONULLA $1.60 PENRITH $2.25 MANLY $1.18 CANBERRA $4.50 BULLDOGS $1.75 KNIGHTS $2.00 GOLD COAST $1.55 ST GEORGE $2.35 ROOSTERS $1.60 SOUTHS $2.25 Early days yet and hard to say anything really appeals. Handicaps and other side markets the ones to look out for. I'll be paying close attention to the handicaps given to the Raiders and Tigers. Total game points lines for Brisbane and Melbourne games will be interesting too. This thread also for other season discussions regarding new signings etc.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Telecast details This year sees the return of Monday Night Football. In addition to this there are now 2 Friday Night games each round. Channel 9 will show 1 game LIVE on Friday night with the other game replayed immediately after. I believe they will also show 1 LIVE Sunday afternoon game. Foxtel will cover all the other games LIVE including Monday Night Football. In a very pleasing news, Foxtel Digital subscribers will now also get to choose which game to watch on a Saturday night. Previously they would show 1 game live and replay the other game afterwards. Now through use of the red button we can now choose which game to watch, much like the Australian Open tennis telecast. Split screen to watch both games live is also a possibility (I believe). All in all it's fantastic news for league watchers with basically 7 of the 8 games available for live viewing each week. For UK viewers, I believe broadcast is now with Setanta Sports, but this is just what I have heard on other forums and haven't actually verified this for myself.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion BRISBANE BRONCOS Gains: McConnell (Halfback - Cowboys) Losses: Webcke (Retirement), McGuire (Les Catalans), Brett Seymour (Sharks), Neville Costigan (Canberra Raiders), Fraser Anderson (Sharks), Scott Minto (Cowboys), Ben Vaeau (Cowboys) Injured: David Stagg (Round 4), Tonie Carroll (Doubtful - Round 1/2) Players to Watch: David Taylor, Joel Moon Premiers of 2006 the Broncos (for the record, they are my team) are in a good position to again have a successful year. Of the 17 players who played in the Grand Final against Melbourne 15 will take the field again in 2007. The two departed players are Casey McGuire, now at French ESL Club Les Catalans and Shane Webcke, who retired after a stellar career. McGuire was a handy player but he is by no means irreplacable. Young starlet Joel Moon is a possibile canditate to fill McGuire's role, having rejected a big money offer from the Melbourne Storm to re-sign with the Broncos at the end of last year. Also able to fill that rule is boom Kiwi youngster Greg Eastwood. Webcke, on the otherhand, is a massive loss to any club. However, Brisbane do have some good forwards at the club and collectively I think they can cover his loss, if not fully replace him. Dane Carlaw is rumoured to be given first shot at the prop rule, but Veteran Brad Thorn is also a contender, along with Ben Hannant, Corey Parker and the much hyped David Taylor. Taylor is a big boy and he has a lot of skills to go with it. I haven't seen him live but the consensus I get from some in the know is that he is a halfback in a prop's body. Definitely one to watch out for. As for the other losses, I don't think there is anything to be concerned about. Brett Seymour has potential and could go on to have a good career in a similar way to Scott Prince, but given the circumstances it's certainly not a release you can fault. Neville Costigan, or as I preferred to call him, Cost-a-game, isn't likely to be missed with a forward pack including Greg Eastwood and Sam Thaiday. Scott Minto is certainly no loss, except perhaps for the team that signed him. Vaeua never played a game for Brisbane and as long as Dave Taylor comes good there is certainly nothing lost. Another positive for Brisbane is the return of Michael Ennis, who suffered an early knee injury and missed the rest of the season. Berrigan did a fine job at hooker last year but the return of Ennis gives us more options in attack, as well as another goalkicking option (Ennis kicked 33 consecutive goals in the backend of season 2005). Early indications are he will start from the bench. Prediction: Brisbane are well poised to challenge again. Darren Lockyer has found his best form again, Karmichael Hunt continues to emerge as a key player in the Broncos line up whilst Justin Hodges and Shaun Berrigan are both brilliant in what they bring to the table. Behind a pack including Civoniceva and Thaiday things are looking good. We will definitely make top 8, should make top 4 and will likely go deep into September. 1st-3rd

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion BULLDOGS Gains: Millard (Dragons), Bott (Sharks), Cleal (Souths), Te Maari (Dragons), Wheatley (Dragons) Losses: Asotasi (Souths), Myles (Roosters), Irvine (Souths), Conn (Titans), Czislowski (Wynnum Manly). Players to Watch: Sonny Bill Williams The Bulldogs have had a couple of significant losses over the off-season. Roy Asotasi is one of the best props in the game and is the epitome of the modern day forward. His loss, along with that of promising Origin forward Nate Myles is without doubt a huge blow. In previous seasons the enormity of the Bulldogs pack has been their strength, which at it's peak included Sonny Bill Williams, Willie Mason, Mark O'Meley, Roy Asotasi, Nate Myles, Andrew Ryan, Reni Maitua among others. In 2007 this pack will still be strong, but it will still be the weakest the Dogs have fielded in a number of years. Considering their halves combination of Sherwin and Holdsworth isn't really the best going around, it's imperative that the Dog's pack continues to be the mainstay strength of the team, as it has been in recent years. The losses suffered in the off-season no doubt make this task considerably harder. The key to the Dogs campaign will be Sonny Bill Williams. Since debuting in 2004 Sonny Bill has played just 41 games, which isn't quite the return the Dogs would have wanted for their 400k+ investment. When fit and playing there is no doubt he is one of the most damaging players in the game and with the loss of Asotasi and Myles another season where Sonny Bill spends more time off the field than on would mean a significantly more difficult season. Prediction: Weaker than previous years but still a very talented roster. Tonga and Utai will be dangerous in the backline and if Mason and SBW stay fit and in form they will still be a force. 3rd-6th

[pete]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion good to see this thread Crouch Potato, keep up the good work, it will be intresting to see how the Gold Coast go in there first year as they have got together a very handy squad.

[Punto83]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Interesting read Crouch Potato, will follow this thread with interest ;)

[rugbylad]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Great previews so far Crouch Potato, :clap :clap :clap ....keep them coming!! :ok Was a surprised to see the Gold Coast as the favs against the Dragons.... GOLD COAST $1.55 v ST GEORGE $2.35 How do you rate their chances this year Crouch?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion CANBERRA RAIDERS Gains: Michael Dobson (Wigan - ESL), Colin Best (Dragons), Neville Costigan (Brisbane), Andrew Dunneman (Salford - ESL), Scott Logan (Wigan - ESL), Matt Bickerstaff (Dragons), Steve Irwin (Wynnum Manly), Brett Kelly (Sharks), Glen Turner (Storm) Losses: Clinton Schifcoske (QLD Reds - Union), Simon Woolford (Dragons), Jason Croker (Les Catalans - ESL), Adam Mogg (Les Catalans - ESL), Jason Smith (Cowboys), Michael Hodgson (Titans), Kris Kahler (Titans), Nathan Smith (Panthers), Terry Martin (Released), Jermaine Ale (Newcastle Wests) Players to Watch: Michael Dobson, Todd Carney Other Significant Factors: Coaching Change. Neil Henry (Cowboys Assistant - IN), Mat Elliot (To Penrith, OUT). If there was one team that was severly crippled over the off-season it is the Canberra Raiders. Captain Schifcoske, Veterans Woolford, Croker and Jason Smith all departed along with younger forwards Hodgson and Kahler (others weren't important). Between them there must be well over 1000 games of NRL experience lost from the side. To make matters worse coach Mat Elliot also left the club to take up the vacant position at the Penrith Panthers. In his place will come Neil Henry, a rookie coach who spent previous seasons as an assistant to Graham Murray at the Cowboys. The basic story of the Raiders squad is inexperience. Dunneman has a lot of ESL experience and Best has a fair share of first grade experience in the NRL. However, it doesn't come close to filling the void. The Raiders will desperately need the younger players to step up. The likes of Marshall Chalk, William Zillman and Adrian Purtell will join Phil Graham and Best in the backline, whilst the combination of Dobson and Carney will be absolutely vital to the Raiders fortunes. In the forward pack newly appointed Alan Tongue leads what is essentially a bare bones pack that is likely to see former Broncos pair Nev Costigan and Tom Learoyd-Lahrs in the second row. Prediction: Although they surprised with a top 8 finish last year 2007 is bound to be a gloomy one for the Green Machine. The loss of some very key playing and coaching personnel hasn't been sufficently replaced and it is very hard to see where the inspiration and talent will come from. A lot rests on Dobson and Carney, but I doubt even Andrew Johns could save this team, let alone a couple of inexperienced youngsters. Will do well to avoid the spoon, mid table obscurity (10th-14th) would be a big achievement given the squad that is listed on paper.

[Anderson.]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Don't bet on it. Not sure on the Gasnier injury, but if he is in, then they'll win. If not, really unpredictable and urge you to stay away. Gold Coast is a team we are not familiar with there style and play, and even though they have played in the pre-season, it's not a fair indication of how they'll play in the premiership atmosphere. My advice : let this one go.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion

Great previews so far Crouch Potato' date= :clap :clap :clap ....keep them coming!! :ok Was a surprised to see the Gold Coast as the favs against the Dragons.... GOLD COAST $1.55 v ST GEORGE $2.35 How do you rate their chances this year Crouch?

Dragons will be without Gasnier for basically the entire season and Matthew Head is also injured for the opening games. Considering Dean Young is also unavailable the creativity in the Dragons line up will be pretty weak. Titans will play their opening game at Suncorp Stadium in front of what I'd imagine to be 50000 fans. Preference would have to go the Titans IMO, but at that kind of price it's not something I'd be jumping on. I'll see if I can't find some stats on teams winning their first ever game.

[rugbylad]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion

Don't bet on it. Not sure on the Gasnier injury' date=' but if he is in, then they'll win. If not, really unpredictable and urge you to stay away. Gold Coast is a team we are not familiar with there style and play, and even though they have played in the pre-season, it's not a fair indication of how they'll play in the premiership atmosphere. My advice : let this one go.[/quote']

[Punto83]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion

For UK viewers, I believe broadcast is now with Setanta Sports, but this is just what I have heard on other forums and haven't actually verified this for myself.

Yep, unfortunately no longer on Sky Sports. Setenta is a further subscription channel which I don't have ( I have the full sky package) so I won't be watching NRL. It will be interesting to look at the betting of the NRL though. Good luck for the season ahead :ok

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion MANLY SEA EAGLES Gains: Jamie Lyon (St Helens), Glenn Hall (Roosters), Jack Afamasaga (Eels) Losses: Michael Witt (Warriors), Kyle Leuluai (Leeds), Paul Stephenson (Sharks), Ben Kennedy (Retired) Players to Watch: Jamie Lyon, Anthony Watmough Generally speaking the Manly squad has remained the same as last season, with the exception of two very high profile movements. On the downside captain and talisman Ben Kennedy has retired. BK was a real leader in the team and his damaging wide runs and offloads will be sorely missed in the Eagles attack. Manly will need young talent Anthony Watmough to step up and fill the void. Watmough played Origin a couple of years ago and had a standout season, forming a lethal duo in the backrow with BK. Last year he suffered a bit of a dip in form, though he was still a good contributor. This year the extra responsbility previously carried on the shoulders of Ben Kennedy will now rest with him. If he can meet the challenge, the Eagles will be in good stead, though it must be said Kennedy is truly irreplacable. On the upside, former Eels player Jamie Lyon has joined their ranks after a spell at St. Helens. A former centre who turned five-eighth in England, Lyon will most likely play five-eight for Manly too. However, it is possible he could play centre or even slot into lock, though I expect Glen Stewart to get that role. Just how effective Lyon will be is unknown. From all reports he set the English Super League on fire, but the NRL is a step up in intensity and in the Tri Nations game last season he was barely noticable. For me the jury is out on him but if he does hit his straps then Manly might just have a genuine chance this year. Prediction: A strong team with good finishers in Brett Stewart and Steven Bell and a very talented halfback in Matt Orford. Forwards look relatively good but Watmough and Kite will be a decisive factor as to whether or not a good forward pack can become a potentially title-winning forward pack. The performance of Jamie Lyon will also play a big role in just how far the Eagles can go. 4th-8th, but could be a darkhorse if their key men fire.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion MELBOURNE STORM Gains: Anthony Quinn (Newcastle), Matt Rua (Central Comets), Russell Aitken (Sharks) Losses: Smith Samau (Titans), Daniel Isaac (Titans), Nathan Friend (Titans), Jake Webster (Titans), Chris Walker (Released - Signed with Titans), Glen Turner (Raiders), Scott Hill (London Harlequins), Dennis Scott (retired), Jamie Feeney (retired). Players to Watch: Greg Inglis Key Betting Notes: Greg Inglis scored 6 first tries last year. Last year Melbourne lost in the Grand Final to Brisbane, 15-8. One of the things that was noticable in the match was the general lack of big game experience the team had, a stark contrast to their hardened opponents. That experience should serve them well and they have retained the majority of their squad. On the transfer front the majority of the focus was on Steve Turner, who initially signed with the Gold Coast Titans. However, Turner sensationally changed his mind and said he wanted to stay with Melbourne. At one point he was even willing to sit out a season in order to return for the Storm. Eventually, the Titans, comforted by the signing of Mat Rogers agreed to let Turner stay in exchange for two juniors (Samau and Isaac) as well as a nominal sum of $85000. Also relating to the Titans were the losses of hooker Friend and centre Webster, both of whom will play for the Gold Coast. With Dally M winner Cam Smith around the loss of Friend will be fine, whilst the retention of Turner and signing of Quinn should sufficently fill the void of Webster. Of particular interest this year will be the performances of Greg Inglis. The fullback/centre is this year set to play five-eigth in the place of the departed Scott Hill. Opinions are divided on the move and it's not hard to see why. Inglis was nothing short of sensational at fullback for the Storm and his performances were equally brilliant in the centres. He doesn't appear to be a natural ball-player but he such a skillful player that I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him being a success in that position. He should be aided by the presence of Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk. Last year the Storm had regular big name absentees but it didn't seem to affect them as one of their big strengths is their ability to truly operate as a team, without any reliance on a single player. This kind of environment is understandably a positive one given the nature of the five-eighth role. In terms of what Inglis offered in the outside backs positions, I don't feel the Storm will suffer much as they have Billy Slater at fullback and Steve Turner, Matt Guyer, Matt King and Anthony Quinn to play out wide. Also of note is the return of Michael Crocker, who served a lengthy suspension for an illegal tackle. His presence in the forwards will be quite welcome given the loss of Kiwi forward David Kidwell. Kidwell will be a bit of a loss but IMO it's one that can be covered. Prediction: The nucleus of the last year's squad is still in tact and if the team can all stay on the field this year then big things are in store. The success of Inglis' transition will be important but if he makes the position his own there doesn't appear to be anything stopping them, particularly given the added experience they can take out of last season. Likely Minor Premiers, 1st-3rd.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS Gains: Todd Polglase (Rabbitohs), Adam MacDouggall (Souths), Mitchell Sargeant (Cowboys), Paul Franze (Castleford) Losses: Todd Lowrie (Eels), Brian Carney (Various - Titans), Matt Gidley (St Helens), Anthony Quinn (Storm), Craig Smith (Retired), Dustin Cooper (Sharks), Brendan Worth (Panthers) Players to Watch: Jarred Mullen Other: New Coach, Brian Smith (Eels) Not a great deal of action at Newcastle, but some interesting moves. Returning home is old favourite Mad Dog, who had an indifferent spell at eternal cellar dwellars Souths. He still has plenty to offer but overall the backline of Newcastle has suffered, with both first choice wingers from last season now having moved on - Quinn to the Storm and Carney to the Titans, though he has subsequently quit and returned to the UK. Also signing from Souths is outside back Todd Polglase and former Penrith player Paul Franze, also an outside back. Finally, their is the recruitment of former Cowboys prop Mitchell Sargeant. Sargeant is a promising player but he was fired from the Cowboys last season after he was discovered to be a recreational drug user. All eyes will be on Sargeant and how he fares in return to NRL footy. As always though, the focus of Newcastle's game plans will be Andrew Johns and Danny Buderus. These two players have been the key to the Knights for many seasons now and this season shall be no different. Last year the Knights started brilliantly but their season faded and they limped out of the finals after being hammered by the Broncos. Young half Jarred Mullen is one to watch and with Johns approaching retirement Knights fans will be hoping that Mullen can have a breakthrough season. The other point of note is that the Knights are one of six clubs to play the coaching musical chairs game. Sensationally, at the beginning of last season the Knights had confirmed they had signed Brian Smith from the Eels, which last year's coach Michael Hagan going to the Eels. There is no doubt that Brian Smith is a much stronger personality than Hagan and how he fares at Newcastle shall be interesting. Personally I don't rate either coach too highly, but I feel Hagan is generally ineffectual, which can be positive or negative, depending on the situation. Smith on the other hand has destructive tendencies and if I were a Newcastle fan I'd have small doubts about him bringing a negative atmosphere to the club. Prediction: Hard side to read, the fitness of Johns will be critical. Now into his 30s he'll probably be rested from games throughout the season and top honours appear likely, though they can be considered outsiders for a top 4 position. However, a few injuries and suspensions could just as easily see the Knights on the wrong side of the 8. 5th-10th.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS Gains: Jason Smith (Raiders), Scott Minto (Broncos), Toshio Laiseni (Sharks), Ben Veaua (Broncos), Jackson Nicolau (Brisbane Norths) Losses: Matt Sing (Hull), Josh Hannay (Sharks), Brett Firman (Panthers), Gavin Cooper (Titans), Travis Norton (Retirement), Mitchell Sargeant (Released - Knights), Brent McConnell (Broncos) There is no doubt the Cowboys had a disappointing year last year as they missed out on the finals after contesting the decider in 2005. A mid-season injury to Jonathan Thurston hurt their chances, though really that is no excuse as the Cowboys got off to a flying start winning their first 5-6 matches. They lost a couple of experienced players in Matt Sing, Josh Hannay and Travis Norton, but the signing of Jason Smith from the Raiders will be a big boost. To be honest, there isn't much I have to say about the Cowboys. Their centre pairing of Henry and Bowman leaves a little to be desired, but Bowen and Thurston will lead the side well and Jason Smith should add a lot of stability and direction. Their forward pack is strong and the hooking combination of Payne and Faimu gives the side further dynamism. Prediction: Underperformers last year, their is nothing on the roster to suggest that a top 4 finish isn't possible. Should make the top 8 this year and if they can regain their form of 2005 then who knows where it'll lead them. 3rd-8th

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion PENRITH PANTHERS Gains: Nathan Smith (Raiders), Brendan Worth (Knights), Brett Firman (Cowboys) Losses: Preston Campell (Titans), Luke Swain (Titans), Danny Galea (Wests Tigers), Craig Stapleton (Sharks), Lee Hookey (Sharks), Brett Howland (Retired). Other: Coaching Change. Mat Elliot in (Raiders) Not too many thoughts on this one. The coaching change will be interesting. Elliot did a fine job at the Raiders, getting the most out of a roster which had more business winning the wooden spoon than it did making the top 8. The loss of Preston Campbell will be deeply felt and they will be counting on Brett Firman or one of their juniors to step up. In Wesser, Lewis and Rooney they still have a potent backline and their pack still includes a host of internationals. Luke Priddis remains one of the best rakes in the game and his service from dummy half will be important. Prediction: Another hard to read team. The top 8 certainly isn't out of reach but if you told me they won the Wooden Spoon I wouldn't be overly surprised either. 6th-14th

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion NRL to Investigate A Possible Salary Cap Breach by the Broncos CORRUPTION allegations into a prominent Brisbane businessman with strong links to the Broncos have sparked a National Rugby League investigation into possible salary-cap breaches following a series of bets on the premier to finish last this year. The NRL probe comes just days after Brisbane chief executive Bruno Cullen signed a statutory declaration that the club had not knowingly exceeded the salary cap last season and he was adamant yesterday that rumours to the contrary were unfounded. "I'm very confident of what I signed off on, so if it is true, I'll lose my job or go to jail, one of the two. That's how serious it is with us," Cullen said. "News Ltd made it very clear to me in no uncertain terms when I first came on board here that they wouldn't tolerate salary-cap breaches because of their ownership of the club and ownership of the game. They couldn't have one of their clubs involved in that sort of stuff, so they're very diligent in that area and as far as I'm concerned, we're OK." But TAB Sportsbet last night suspended wooden-spoon betting in reaction to speculation surrounding the Broncos. The agency's media manager Glenn Munsie said it had taken the decision to protect punters. "We've suspended betting because we don't want unsuspecting customers getting caught up in a rumour situation like they did when there were rumours about another team a couple of years ago," Munsie said. NRL chief executive David Gallop confirmed inquiries were being made. "The rumours have flown around today and we've made some inquiries but at this stage, we've not uncovered anything," Gallop said. Behind the rumours is an investigation by Queensland's Crime and Misconduct Commission into a $300,000 loan from Brisbane businessman Ken Talbot to a former state government minister Gordon Nuttall. Talbot, a major shareholder in Macarthur Coal whose wealth is estimated at $500 million, is a member of the Broncos Thoroughbreds, a well-connected cheer squad for the Brisbane team. Source: http://www.theage.com.au/news/basketball/nrl-to-probe-brisbane-allegations/2007/03/12/1173548107844.html ----------------------------------------------- From what I can gather, the worst scenario in question is a minor breach, which would result only in a fine and not a points breach.

[Mr Flamboyant]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion

"We've suspended betting because we don't want unsuspecting customers getting caught up in a rumour situation like they did when there were rumours about another team a couple of years ago," Munsie said.

LMFAO! A bookie that cares for it's customers? Pleeease ...

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS Gains: Simon Woolford (Raiders), Beau Scott (Sharks), Luke MacDougall (Souths), Adam Peek (Eels), Rangi Chase (Wests Tigers), Tony Caine (Sharks) Losses: Luke Bailey (Titans), Trent Barrrett (Wigan), Michael Henderson (Titans), Shaun Timmins (retired), Aaron Gorrell (Les Catalans), Colin Best (Raiders), Matt Bickerstaff (Raiders), Clint Greenshield (Les Catalns), Reece Simmonds (Souths), Daryl Millard (Bulldogs), George Ndairi (Roosters), Lee Te Maari (Bulldogs), Aaron Wheatley (Bulldogs) Overall the Dragons have lost out over the Summer and they have lost out BIG! Simon Woolford is a decent signing and MacDougall will do okay too, but some of these losses are massive. Bailey was an integral part of the forward pack, Barrett was the cornerstone of their attack and Timmins when fit was an extremely worthwhile player. Aaron Gorrell offered their side a lot, whilst Colin Best was the perfect man to take advantage of Gasnier's brilliance. Players like Bickerstaff, Greenshield and Millard, whilst not key players could be considered first-graders and their absences will have a cumulatively negative affect on the team. It is important to remember too that first choice half Matt Head is very injury prone and his absence will be particularly heavily felt now that Mark Gasnier has been ruled out for virtually the entire season. Prediction: Couldn't win a premiership in the last few years when they had a vastly superior squad. 1973 was the last time they won the premiership and that fact wont change this year. In real danger of missing the 8 but can still be considered a canditate. 6-12th

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion

LMFAO! A bookie that cares for it's customers? Pleeease ...

Couldn't agree more. If they were serious about protecting the customer, why not suspend premiership odds where an unknowning punter could bet on Brisbane to win the Premiership when they were potentially liable to lose points? More like protecting their own asses.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion CRONULLA SHARKS Gains: Brett Seymour (Broncos), Paul Stephenson (Manly), Craig Stapleton (Panthers), Lee Hookey (Panthers), Josh Hannay (Cowboys), Misi Taulapapa (Comets), Michael Greenfield (Souths), Fraser Anderson (Broncos), Dustin Cooper (Knights), Isaac De Goos (Tigers) Losses: Phil Bailey (Wigan), Hutch Maiva (Hull), Nigel Vagana (Souths), Beau Scott (Dragons), Leon Bott (Bulldogs), Tony Caine (Dragons), Luke Harlen (Tigers), Matt Hilder (Titans), James Stosic (Titans), Brett Kelly (Raiders), Russell AItken (Storm), Darren Mapp (Released - Celtic Crusaders), Toshio Laiseni (Cowboys). Other: Coaching Change. In Ricky Stuart (Roosters) Some interesting comings and goings at Cronulla. Phil Bailey and Nigel Vagana can be considered notable losses whilst Maiva and Hilder were also regular first graders. Coming in are what you would describe as players needing a second wind in their career. Brett Seymour was a heralded prospect at the Broncos and seen as the successor to Alan Langer, but a combinations of things and the weight of expectation meant that this was never to be. He joins a Sharks side already boasting former Kangaroo half Brett Kimmorley as well as long serving pivot Adam Dykes and will have trouble breaking into the side. Also in a similar boat is veteran centre Josh Hannay who arrives after a disappointing year at the Cowboys last year. Hannay is a solid player and has something to offer the side if he can get his game together. He wont, however, be anything more than a solid signing. The Sharks are also one of a number of sides entering this season with a new coach. Stuart on paper had a good stint with the Roosters but given the talent at his disposal I'd say his results were little more than adequate. Not sure what he has to offer the Sharks but as often is the case time will tell. Prediction: Top 8 Potential but nothing more, would expect them to be on the wrong side of things come September. 8th-14th

[Jumbo]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion . I'll see if I can't find some stats on teams winning their first ever game. I tthink I can answer that question,If i'm correct only the Brisbane Broncos have ever won their first ever match as the new entry side and that was when Manly won the title in 87 I think and the Broncos beat them in the following year in their first match,but also I think that was the old Tooheys Cup preseason cup,as for all the other new sides to the Comp,Winfield Cup or NRL Premiership no new side has won their first match and no new side has ever made the playoffs in their first season in the Comp.Golod Coast have a good side but i'd be leaning towards the Dragons based on history,but in saying that it might be better to skip that one.The best look this weekend in my opinion is the Cowboys to beat the Broncos,they beat them in Rd 1 at Suncorp last year 4-36 and have won their last 2 against the Broncos,also if Thurston and Smith are both playing it looks very good for thyat bet,also the Broncos have been lbad in their first 5 matches in the last 3 years,also Melbourne could quite possibly run up a cricket score on the Tigers,the Tigers Forwards have lost a lot of size and might well struggle against the Storm who by all reports are keen as mustard to get the season underway and with the strike force they have and Bellamy at the helm it would'nt surprise me at all if the Storm flogged them.:drums

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion I apologise for not having given a full review of teams but I've been sidetracked. I'll try and at least give a write up of the Titans, but probably wont be able to do the rest. I will answer any questions the best I can though. Alright, onto the season bets. Just one for me so far, but it was outstanding value: Bet: Steven Michaels Leading Tryscorer 2007 @ 126 - Centrebet Strength: 9/10 Absolutely insane price. I expect him to play left wing for Brisbane this entire season. I also don't anticipate him playing State of Origin, a problem that the majority of the other contenders will have to face. Last year Tame Tupou played left wing and scored a number of tries. Michaels is a better finisher than Tame and 126 is an insane price. Skybet and Sportsbook have him at 34s, Sporting have priced him up at 26. Strength rating is based on the value of the bet, and not on perceived chances of the bet winning.

[SydCityKid]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion YES YES YES YES YES ONLY 3 HOURS UNTIL RUGBY LEAGUE SEASON 2007 KICKS OF!!!!!!!!! :notworthy STORM vs TIGERS Every single game last year i found myself looking at the Tigers pack and thinking how the hell can these guys hold up? And this season i'll be doing the same. The storms forward pack should run all over the Tigers so i like Melbourne -11.5 in the handicap betting BRONCOS vs COWBOYS This Queensland local derby always promises to be a good one and i don't see this game being any different. Jason Smith was a good Buy for them but i think they realy lost something in Josh Hannay. His defence was solid 4/7 for the cowboys and i just don't see how the Cowboys will get over the line tonight. So i like Brisbane 1-12 in the margin betting @ 3.20 GOODLUCK FOR 2007 AND GO THE DRAGONS AND SCREAM "THATS MY TEAM"

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Melbourne Storm ($1.20) v Wests Tigers ($4.25) Handicap: -/+11.5 O/U: 42.5 Teams: Melbourne Storm 1. Billy Slater, 2. Matt Geyer, 3. Matt King, 4. Anthony Quinn, 5. Israel Folau, 6. Greg Inglis, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Antonio Kaufusi, 9. Cameron Smith, 10. Brett White, 11. Jeremy Smith, 12. Ryan Hoffman, 13. Dallas Johnson. Subs: 14. Michael Crocker, 15. Garret Crossman, 16. Jeff Lima, 17. James Aubusson, 18. Sam Tagataese, 19. Ryan Shortland, 20. Ben Cross (three to be omitted). Wests Tigers Brett Hodgson ©, Taniela Tuiaki, Dean Collis, Paul Whatuira, Jason Moddie, Benji Marshall, John Morris, Dene Halatau, Chris Heighington, Ben Galea, Bryce Gibbs, Robbie Farah, Todd Payten. Res: Liam Fulton, Daniel Fitzhenry, Bronson Harrison, Keith Galloway, Danny Galea (one to be omitted). The season kicks off tonight with two games in both Brisbane and Melbourne, last year's grand finalists. The Storm boast an impressive record at home having lost just one game at Olympic Park during last year's campaign. Their opponents, the Wests Tigers will look to rebound after a disappointing season last year. Their team is pretty much the same as last year except key half Scott Prince has moved on to the Titans. All eyes will be on the battle of the pivots as wonderkid Greg Inglis plays his first competitive game at five-eighth against Kiwi sensation Benji Marshall. From a betting point of view, there's really only one team here and that's Melbourne. They have won their 5 meetings against the Tigers in Melbourne, they won 12 of 13 games last season at Olympic and their team is better. The odds of $1.20 are pretty skinny but as far as $1.20 shots go it's not the worst. Early season can spring some surprises though and I feel there are better markets and selections out there. Betting footnotes:

• Billy Slater boosts an impressive try-scoring record against the Tigers with 4 in his past 3 games.
• Of the Storms 12 wins last season all bar one saw the Storm leaders at the half-way mark too.
• 8 of the past 10 fixtures anywhere between these two has gone over 42.5, and 4 of the 5 at Olympic have gone over 42.5

Bets: Melbourne/Melbourne HT/FT @ 1.56 Betfair (9/10) Melbourne to lead at HT by 7-12pts @ 4.75 Centrebet (5/10) Billy Slater First Tryscorer @ 11 Sportingbet (1/10) Billy Slater Last Tryscorer @ 11 Sportingbet (1/10) Billy Slater MOTM @ 17 TAB (1/10) All bets now placed, wanted to take over 6.5 tries but no liqudity. Can't quite bring myself to take over 42.5.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Brisbane Broncos ($1.50) v North Queensland Cowboys ($2.50) Handicap: -/+ 4.5 O/U: 42.5 Teams: Brisbane Broncos Justin Hodges, Steve Michaels, Brent Tate, Joel Moon, Darius Boyd, Darren Lockyer ©, Karmichael Hunt, Dane Carlaw, Shaun Berrigan, Petero Civoniceva, Corey Parker, Brad Thorn, Tonie Carroll. Subs: Sam Thaiday, Ben Hannant, Greg Eastwood, Shane Perry. North Queensland Cowboys 1 Matt Bowen, 2 Brenton Bowen, 3 Mark Henry, 4 Ashley Graham, 5 Neil Sweeney, 6 Jason Smith, 7 Johnathan Thurston ©, 8 Matthew Scott, 9 Aaron Payne (vc), 10 Carl Webb, 11 Steve Southern, 12 Luke O'Donnell, 13 Justin Smith. Subs: 14 Rod Jensen, 15 Jacob Lillyman, 16 Sione Faumuina, 17 Shane Tronc, 18 Scott Bolton (one to be omitted). As has been the case in recent years Brisbane open up their campaign against the Cowboys in an all Queensland affair. The Cowboys did the double over Brisbane last year but the Broncos got the prize that mattered. Overall the Broncos have had a mortgage over the Cowboys but much of that dates back to the dark times in North Queensland when top 8 was but a pipe dream. Last year they embarrased Brisbane 36-4 in the opening game, though Brisbane were in poorer shape then, with Lockyer and Seymour recovering from injuries and starting from the bench. All eyes will be on Karmichael Hunt, who after earning Queensland and Australian jumpers in the fullback positions switches to partner Darren Lockyer in the halves. From a betting perspective Brisbane are deserved favourites. However, the Cowboys do pose a threat in their little men. Thurston, Bowen and Payne caused havoc last season and they remain a danger again. Brisbane are however a fitter side and their forwards should be better equiped to deal with these challenges. Webcke is a big loss but I expect Civoniceva to stand up and be counter, along with a rejuvenated Dane Carlaw. Betting Footnotes:

• Brisbane have won the first game of the season on 17 times. Tonight they play their 20th opening game of the season.
• In 13 games at Suncorp last season, only twice has the team leading at HT failed to win the match.
• Of Brisbanes 8 wins at Suncorp last year, 7 were by a margin of 13+
• The last 5 teams to visit Suncorp finished with 11-20pts

Bets: Total Game Score 31-40pts @ 3.25 TAB (6/10) Nth Qld Score 11-20pts @ 2.50 TAB (5/10) Petero Civoniceva MOTM @ 21 TAB (1/10) Steve Michaels Last Tryscorer @ 12 TAB (1/10) All bets now placed :ok

[blackcrow]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Melbourne -13.5 @ 2.10 (Centrebet) Melbourne have won all 6 games against Wests at home and have no problems scoring at least 30 points against them. Last year they won 46-4 against them, and a similar scoreline looks likely with the talent the Melbourne side have in their backline. Wests haven't strengthened much from last year so it doesn't seem like much will change from last year's result.

[kiwimike]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion All the best with those guys, nice write ups CP! , good luck mate!, i'll be watching. Cheers

[JPVD]

Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Good luck all! Like the -11.5 in the handicap as well1