Mr Flamboyant Posted March 16, 2007 Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Fantastic job Crouch Spud, great write ups and stats ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 16, 2007 Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Again, absolutely superb effort there Crouch Potato :ok keep them coming bud! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted March 16, 2007 Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion I'm no expert, but the warriors fans I work with, all expect them to have a very good season. They are happy with signings. The tigers have been better than I expected so far, but still expect the storm to pull away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted March 16, 2007 Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion and there is the 2nd try :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 16, 2007 Author Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion I'm no expert, but the warriors fans I work with, all expect them to have a very good season. They are happy with signings. There seems to be a bit of a consensus over here too that they are in for a good season and I certainly wouldn't disagree with that. However, I'm a little skeptic that they have as much potential as perhaps has been made out but I'd expect them to make the finals. If they can reach their maximum potential though, they will be a very very dangerous and entertaining side to watch. In the past they have been able to beat anyone on their day and with the roster they have that sentiment still applies. For me the key will be their halves - Ropati, Witt, Rovelli aren't really title winning halves IMO, but there's certainly time for that opinion to change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 16, 2007 Author Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Half-Time Melbourne 12-10 Tigers Not quite the half-time margin that I would have like but at least the conversion was missed so the ht/ft plays. Let's hope the Storm run away with it from here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 16, 2007 Author Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Full-Time Melbourne 18-16 Wests Tigers Half-Time Brisbane 6-16 Cowboys Justin Hodges gave away the ball needlessly in the last minute of the first half and the Cowboys get away to score :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 16, 2007 Author Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Again' date=' absolutely superb effort there [b']Crouch Potato :ok keep them coming bud! Fantastic job Crouch Spud' date=' great write ups and stats ...[/quote'] Cheers fellas. I'll be here all season to give these little bits of info. I do hope to have much better bets than I have had so far though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 16, 2007 Author Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Two quick tries to Brisbane through special K and Joel Moon. With about 15minutes to go we have a contest. Brisbane 16-16 North Queensland Cowboys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 16, 2007 Author Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Friday Night Wrap-Up Melbourne Storm (18) Tries: Jeremy Smith, Ryan Hoffman, Israel Folau Goals: Cameron Smith (3/3) Wests Tigers (16) Tries: Jason Moodie, Bronson Harrison, Paul Whatuira Goals: Benji Marshall (2/3) Haven't seen the game yet, so no comments to make. From a betting perspective a disappointing game with just 1 bet from 5 getting up. ---------------- Brisbane Broncos (16) Tries: Dane Carlaw, Karmichael Hunt, Joel Moon Goals: Darren Lockyer (2/4) North Queensland Cowboys (23) Tries: Ashley Graham (2), Mark Henry, Matthew Bowen Field Goals: Matthew Bowen 1 Goals: Johnathan Thurston (3/5) North Queensland looked excellent in the first half. Thurston and Bowen were combining well and Faumina and Webb looked to offload the ball at every opportunity. Brisbane powered back in the 2nd half and it looked like they were going to get the Cowboys but some critical dropped ball allowed the Cowboys to score through some brilliance from Matt Bowen. Hodges' error late in the first half can also be viewed as a critical moment. From a betting perspective it was another disappointment with just 1 bet from 4 getting up. How Brisbane won Civoniceva would probably have got MOTM and the Cowboys team score bet of 11-20 was lost from a couple of mistakes. ---------------- It is worth noting that the Cowboys could very easily have lost the game tonight. Against quality opposition in future a bet of Cowboys to lead at ht and the opposition to come back and win by FT wont be the worst in the world. Against weaker opposition, look for some big scores and Matt Bowen tries. For the Broncos, Corey Parker suffered a fractured wrist and will be out for 4-6 weeks, possibly longer. Expect Michael Ennis to return and take over the goalkicking duties, with Greg Eastwood to most likely come into the starting line up. A bench spot for Dave Taylor might be possible now too. As a Broncos supporter it was a pretty disappointing night and the punting wasn't much better, although I did finish with a very small profit on the night. Tomorrow will be better :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dingotech Posted March 16, 2007 Share Posted March 16, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion I had Storm -11.5 last night and Cowboys +5.5, so I'm even going into day 2 of the League! I thought the Tigers played well but were lucky to get a couple of their trys. What are peoples thoughts on the games tonight? I'm thinking about the following - - Warriors head-to-head win. Odds $1.50 - Canberra line +13.5. Odds $1.90 I've got no idea about the Penrith game, both teams look bad to me. Can somebody tell me how to get my posts to stay formatted?? The text keeps bunching together despite my editing in the posting box??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion NZ Warriors ($1.50) vs Parramatta Eels ($2.50) Handicap: -/+ 4.5 O/U: 42.5 Teams: New Zealand Warriors 1 Wade McKinnon, 2 Michael Crockett, 3 Tony Martin, 4 Lance Hohaia, 5 Manu Vatuvei, 6 Michael Witt, 7 Grant Rovelli, 8 Ruben Wiki (vc), 9 George Gatis, 10 Steve Price ©, 11 Simon Mannering, 12 Logan Swann, 13 Micheal Luck. Subs: 14 Nathan Fien, 15 Evarn Tuimavave, 16 Epalahame Lauaki , 17 Louis Anderson, 18 Sam Rapira (one to be omitted). Parramatta Eels 1 Luke Burt, 2 Jarryd Hayne, 3 Ben Smith, 4 Timana Tahu, 5 Joel Reddy, 6 Brett Finch, 7 Tim Smith, 8 Nathan Cayless ©, 9 Mark Riddell, 10 Fuifui Moimoi, 11 Ian Hindmarsh, 12 Chad Robinson, 13 Daniel Wagon. Subs: 14 PJ Marsh, 15 Josh Cordoba, 16 Todd Lowrie, 17 Aaron Cannings. Kicking off tonight's procedings are two teams who I think have a lot of potential this year. The Warriors have a very skillful team and love to throw the ball around, which can be a blessing and a curse. Their backline doesn't have any big names but they are all capable players. For Parramatta new signing Brett Finch will look to re-establish himself alongside Tim Smith, who after a sensational first season followed up with a very trouble second. In Hayne and Tahu they have two of the best finishers in the game but will surely be stung in the forwards where they are withou talismatic leader Nathan Hindmarsh. Betting Footnotes:On the 22 occassions where there was a half-time leader in a Warriors game, the leading team has gone on to win 18 times. 7 of the past 8 games between these two teams has seen the Warriors score 11-20pts The Warriors won 4 of their last 5 games at Mt Smart - Their only defeat at the hands of the Eels, 12-20. In the past 5 meetings between these teams at this venue, either team has scored more than 20pts on just 2 occassions (10 team scores)Bets: Total Match Points 31-40 @ 3.25 TAB (6/10) Warriors Team Score 11-20 @ 3.00 TAB (4.5/10) Tony Martin First Try-Scorer @ 14 TAB (1/10) No more bets will be made. Hopefully today will be better than yesterday :hope A little unsure on the team score bet for the Warriors but this is the first game of the season and hopefully conditions will be cold and scoring fairly low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Citizen Kane Posted March 17, 2007 Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion With the Super14 so poor I've all but given up watching games and just catch a highlights package each week. I'm more interested in the NRL now and after last night there is daylight between the skill/interest level in the two competitions. Really fancy the Warriors at home today. They look to have a stronger/settled squad and see soem value in the 4/6 generally available. Odds Centrebet: 2pts Warriors @ 1.53 1pt Warriors -4.5pts @ 1.91 Cheers CK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Cronulla Sharks ($1.60) vs Penrith Panthers ($2.25) Handicap: -/+ 3.5 O/U: 45.5 Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks David Simmons, Fraser Anderson, Ben Pomeroy, Josh Hannay, Luke Covell, Adam Dykes, Brett Kimmorley ©, Greg Bird, Lance Thompson, Reece Williams, Luke Douglas, Kevin Kingston, Ben Ross. Res: Craig Stapleton, Phillip Leuluai, Cameron Ciraldo, Brett Kearney, Dustin Cooper, Isaac De Gois (two to be omitted). Penrith Panthers 1. Rhys Wesser, 2. Nick Youngquest, 3. Michael Gordon, 4. Luke Lewis, 5. Luke Rooney, 6. Peter Wallace, 7. Craig Gower, 8. Joel Clinton, 9. Luke Priddis, 10. Frank Puletua, 11. Matthew Cross, 12. Tony Puletua, 13. Trent Waterhouse. Subs: 14. Junior Moors, 15. Brendan Worth, 16. Nathan Smith, 17. Paul Aiton, 18. Matthew Bell (one to be omitted). Two teams who disappointed last year, both teams will be eager to start with a win this year. Both teams have new coaches this year, the Sharks with Stuart and the Panthers with Matty Eliot. Stuart in particular has a big task as the Sharks ended last year with 10 consecutive losses. Penrith are a very hard to read team, but the nucleus of their side are Premiership winners from back in 2003. On paper they certainly have the better forward pack and their backs appear to be more dynamic. Unfortunately for punters though, Penrith aren't exactly a team who do things on paper. Betting Footnotes:Last year in handicap betting, the Sharks gave away the start on 10 occassions and went on to cover the spread on just 2 occassions. Last year in handicap betting, the Panthers were given the start 10 times in away matches and won the handicap match on 7 of those occassions. Last year at home Cronulla led at half-time on 7 occassions but went on to win just twice. Adam Dykes scored the first try in the Sharks' first two games last seasonBets: Panthers +3.5 @ 1.90 TAB (7/10) Sharks/Panthers HT/FT @ 8.50 Sportingbet (1/10) Adam Dykes First-Tryscorer @ 21 TAB (1/10) One bet pending. Note: Panthers +3.5 available at 1.98 on Betfair, but idiot that I am I forgot to check the odds on there before placing :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion With the Super14 so poor I've all but given up watching games and just catch a highlights package each week. I'm more interested in the NRL now and after last night there is daylight between the skill/interest level in the two competitions. Really fancy the Warriors at home today. They look to have a stronger/settled squad and see soem value in the 4/6 generally available. Odds Centrebet: 2pts Warriors @ 1.53 1pt Warriors -4.5pts @ 1.91 Cheers CK Good luck CK. I must admit I've tried a few times to get into Union but in all honestly the game just bores the **** out of me. Can't stand the whole rucks and maul thing and how it kills off fast, expansive football. It's like Chess with a football. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted March 17, 2007 Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion This is my first season of serious league watching. Super 14 has been a disapointment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Warriors off to a flyer, leading 14-0 after 14mins. This one looking like another imperfect game for me. Mckinnon claimed the first try. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Warriors 30-12 with 25 to go. All my bets already dead, ****ing uesless result. One more game to preview if the site I'm trying to place my bets on gets back online. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Manly ($1.18) v Canberra Raiders ($4.50) Handicap: -/+ 13.5 O/U: 45.5 Teams: Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles Brett Stewart, Michael Robertson, Steve Bell, Steve Matai, Chris Hicks, Jamie Lyon, Matt Orford ©, Jason King, Michael Monaghan, Brent Kite, Steve Menzies, Glenn Stewart, Luke Williamson. Subs: Travis Burns, Anthony Watmough, George Rose, Mark Bryant, Glenn Hall (one to be omitted). Canberra Raiders 1 William Zillman, 2 Colin Best, 3 Phil Graham, 4 Marshall Chalk , 5 Adrian Purtell, 6 Todd Carney, 7 Michael Dobson, 8 Troy Thompson, 9 Lincoln Withers, 10 Dane Tilse, 11 Glen Turner, 12 Matt Bickerstaff, 13 Alan Tongue ©. Subs: 14 Andrew Dunemann, 15 Neville Costigan, 16 Josh Miller, 17 Scott Logan, 18 Ben Jones (one to be omitted). News from earlier today is that Watmough wont be playing tonight and that Rose will get the nod. This is a bit of a blow to the Eagles as Watmough is now a key Manly forward following the departure of Kennedy. In this corresponding fixture last year the Raiders sprung a big surprise and upset the Manly team 27-14. Raiders side have a lot of young players and how they will go is a bit of an unknown, though they did have a good trial result against the Wests Tigers. Betting Notes: Alan Tongue 4 first tries last season. Brett Stewart 5 last tries last season. Only 2 of Manly's home games last season saw the Eagles win by 13+ Manly trailed at HT on 8 occassions in home games last season.Bets: Raiders +13.5 @ 1.83 TAB (8/10) Total Game Points 41-50 @ 3.25 TAB (5/10) Manly Team Score 21-30 @ 2.76 TAB (5/10) Raiders to lead at HT by 1-8 @ 4.1X TAB (4.5/10)** Alan Tongue First Try @ 21 Skybet (1/10) Brett Stewart Last Try @ 10 Skybet (1/10) ** Raiders to lead at HT by 1-8 is two seperate bets, Ht 1-4 and Ht 5-8 @ odds of 8 and 9 respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Absolutely ****ing horrible night. Not one game played like I expected and basically won sweet **** all. Manly game was an absolute insult. 2pts too much for the team score, 3pts short of the game score. On top of that Robertson drops a simple ball over the line. ****ing wank of a night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SydCityKid Posted March 17, 2007 Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion NRL ROUND1 NEWCASTLE vs BULLDOGS The first game of the season for these two teams and i expect a cracker of a game. On paper this mighty Bulldogs forward pack looks the best in the whole of the NRL and Newcastle looks to be one of the smaller packs in the league. However the West Tigers proved that a smaller more mobile pack can be an advantage, but in saying that i don't see how Newcastle can get over the line without Buderus. I expect the Bulldogs to get physical and with a pumped up Sonny Bill and Mark o'meley playing with something to prove the BULLDOGS WILL WIN. MY TIP: BULLDOGS HD2HD @ 1.75 TITANS vs DRAGONS In this historic date for the Titans they will come out fired up and ready 2 rumble, and i think the same can be said for the Dragons with a well publicised 5 Dragons rookies or "Browns Babes". My concern is can a team in its first game just Gel straight away, the Titans starting 13 is good but i don't realy rate the bench at all. I expect Ben Hornby to take control of this match and the DRAGONS TO WIN there first up game. MY TIP: DRAGONS HD2HD @ 2.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion No idea if I'll be around in time tomorrow so I'll get the bets in early, thought at the moment I could hardly give a shit. Newcastle ($2.10) v Bulldogs (1.70) Handicap: +/- 2.5 O/U: 47.5 Teams: Newcastle Knights 1. Kurt Gidley, 2. James McManus, 3. George Carmont, 4. Brad Tighe, 5. Adam MacDougall, 6. Jarrod Mullen, 7. Andrew Johns ©, 8. Josh Perry, 9. Terence Seu Seu, 10. Adam Woolnough, 11. Steve Simpson, 12. Clint Newton, 13. Kirk Reynoldson. Subs: 14. Todd Polglase, 15. Daniel Abraham, 16. Matthew White, 17. Daniel Tolar, 18. Cory Paterson, 19. Jesse Royal (two to be omitted). Bulldogs 1. Luke Patten, 2. Hazem El Masri, 3. Daryl Millard, 4. Willie Tonga, 5. Trent Cutler, 6. Daniel Holdsworth, 7. Ben Roberts, 8. Mark O'Meley, 9. Corey Hughes, 10. Willie Mason, 11. Sonny Bill Williams, 12. Andrew Ryan ©, 13. Reni Maitua. Subs: 14. Dallas McIlwain, 15. Chris Armit, 16. Kane Cleal, 17. Jarrad Hickey. Crucial factor I feel exists here is goalkicking and defence. Both teams have good forwards with excellent defence. However, both teams are sharp in attack and when they play to their strengths they are more than capable of putting points on the board. El Masri is the best kicker in the game and will so often kick 5/5 in a Dogs team score of 24-30pts. Newcastle without Buderus and so will suffer around the play the ball area whilst Dogs without Sherwin. Buderus arguably a bigger loss and with the boot of El Masri I fancy the Dogs to nick it. Bets: Bulldogs 1-12 @ 3.35 Betfair 4/10 Bulldogs Team Score 21-30 @ 3.00 TAB 5/10 Bulldogs Penalty Goal First Score Type @ 8 TAB 1/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Titans ($1.60) v Dragons ($2.25) Handicap: -/+ 4.5 O/U: 45.5 Teams: Gold Coast Titans Preston Campbell, Lelea Paea, Mat Rogers, Jake Webster, Chris Walker, Matt Hilder, Scott Prince ©, Luke Bailey ©, Clint Amos, Kris Kahler, Anthony Laffranchi, Gavin Cooper, Luke Swain. Subs: Michael Henderson, James Stosic, Mark Minichiello, Josh Graham, Brett Delaney, Nathan Friend (two to be omitted). St.George-Illawarra Dragons Josh Morris, Luke MacDougall, Keith Lulia, Matt Cooper, Wes Naiqama, Richard Williams, Ben Hornby, Dan Hunt, Simon Woolford, Jason Ryles, Ashton Sims, Beau Scott, Ben Creagh. Subs: Adam Peek, Danny Wicks, Corey Payne, Tony Caine, Lagi Setu (one to be omitted). Dragons team looks very weak on paper. Creativity stock are incredibly low with Gasnier, Head and Young all absent from the team. Titans team looks good in the backline but their forwards don't look too strong. In that department the Dragons probably edge it but the Titans have a big advantage in the halves and creativity. Naiqama will kick for the Dragons and he's not very good from the sideline or harder areas of the field. Bets: Dragons Team Score 11-20pts @ 2.75 6/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted March 17, 2007 Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion The form book doesnt favour the Dragons, they have lost 7 out of 8 opening game fixtures, plus they're light of several key players. However, is it risky to back a new side in their first competitive game....me thinks so. BTW - No sign of R Mathers in the Gold Coast line-up......? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 17, 2007 Author Share Posted March 17, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion The form book doesnt favour the Dragons, they have lost 7 out of 8 opening game fixtures, plus they're light of several key players. However, is it risky to back a new side in their first competitive game....me thinks so. BTW - No sign of R Mathers in the Gold Coast line-up......? Thigh/Calf Strain, scheduled return round 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dingotech Posted March 18, 2007 Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion I'm on the complete opposite of you guys today. Titans Half/Full Double and Newcastle +2.5. The Dragons are missing too many players and as pointed out they start poorly, yeah the Titans are a new team but they look pretty good to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted March 18, 2007 Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Knights to win $2,05 TAB(NZ),Dragons to win $2.25 TAB(NZ) If you have'nt seen this kid Seu Seu play,he's the Knights replacement for Buderus,watch this kid go,he's awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted March 18, 2007 Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion How can the Knights play so badly just because Jhons is off,Disgusting effort,they deserve to go down by 40.Terrible stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 18, 2007 Author Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion ****ing McIllwain drops the ball with the try line begging and would certainly have won the game for the Bulldogs. This round gives me the shits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted March 18, 2007 Share Posted March 18, 2007 Re: Rugby League: NRL Round 1 (Mar 16-Mar 19) + Season Discussion Iiredness cost the Doggies,Knights very lucky to get that one. C'mon the Dragons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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