Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 As i don't have time to do full analysis of my picks with my other GH thread, I'm going to do something thats a bit of fun but hopefully will make some money! In England there are on average, 71 sending offs per league, per season. In the Premiership for example there are 380 games per season. On average this works out at 1 sending off every 5.35 games. Not much of an edge really, but, with a bit of selection and filtering like avoiding card happy refs, local derbies, 'fiery' teams etc, i'm sure its possible to make some profit!!! ;) What I'll be doing Backing 0, zero, zilch sendings offs in any given game! Starting bank £50.00 (real money!) Level staking of £10 per bet until I get to markers of £200, £500 and £1000 *yeah right!* when the stakes will be 10% of the bank until the next marker. All bets will be struck with Betfair and Commision will be taken into accountOdds are geneally around the 1.25 mark for this market so i'd be happy with a 99.99%+ S/R! :hope ;) Bon voyage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 4, 2007 Author Share Posted March 4, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Bet 1 West Ham v Tottenham Hotspur £10 @ 1.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Does that include multiple red cards in a game? That would surely given you an edge as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 4, 2007 Author Share Posted March 4, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Does that include multiple red cards in a game? That would surely given you an edge as well. It certainly does mate! Does anyone have any sites with sending off stats etc? I've got stats for the refs but just wondering if there's a 'hall of shame' type thingy for the worst teams etc - having trouble finding such. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . This what you are after? http://www.covers.co.uk/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/england/premierleague/statistics/2006-2007/team_discipline_points.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Nice research and good idea mate - good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . http://www.365stats.com/football/index.php?p=referee&div=E0 Heres some referee stats mate - the website link is the one at the top of the page called "365stats" It looks like Mike Halsey could be one for you to follow. Rennie's pretty lenient too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 4, 2007 Author Share Posted March 4, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . This what you are after? http://www.covers.co.uk/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/england/premierleague/statistics/2006-2007/team_discipline_points.html http://www.365stats.com/football/index.php?p=referee&div=E0 Perfect! :notworthy Cheers chaps, much appreciated! Wish I had them before I started (if it loses i'm goign to start again! :lol ) Mike Dean's in charge today - pretty high red card count but isn't 'due' one today on past form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 4, 2007 Author Share Posted March 4, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Bet 1 West Ham v Tottenham Hotspur £10 @ 1.26 :nana ----------------------- Bets 1 Winners 1 Bank £52.47 P/L £2.47 S/R 100% Yield 24.7% ----------------------- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 4, 2007 Share Posted March 4, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Nice start Nehemiah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 4, 2007 Author Share Posted March 4, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Cheers mate. . . . Nothing for Monday. Half fancied Preston v Southampton but referee seems a bit card happy . . . on average 1 SO every 3.1 games! :eek Probably best keeping away due to the fact that its a big game . . .Would have quite fancied it though as Preston and Southampton are 2 of the most well behaved teams, Southampton especially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 5, 2007 Author Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . This may prove trickier than i first thought - with the games available offering sending off odds quite limited, it may be something that i dip in and out of . . . Bet 2 Tuesday 6th March Liverpool v Barcelona £10 @ 1.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Barce had 2 mee sent off last game. Lots of unrest. Not sure about this game. Good Luck though. This may prove trickier than i first thought - with the games available offering sending off odds quite limited, it may be something that i dip in and out of . . . Bet 2 Tuesday 6th March Liverpool v Barcelona £10 @ 1.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galronix Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . I'm sure the BBC sports section had a fair play league on their site. :unsure I'll see if I can find it. Good luck with this Nehemiah. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . I tried betting on the no sendings off market, however I failed miserably to make a profit because at the end of the day you can be the cleanest team but have a goalkeeper handle out of the area or something stupid to get sent off. It isnt hard these days! Anyway, I used soccer stats website, they have a fair play table for each league such as: http://www.soccerstats.com/2kcards.asp?league=england Good luck with this, I hope you are much more successful than I was! Aldric PS it would almost be easier to bet ON sendings off in the italian and turkish leagues, check them out - lol! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted March 5, 2007 Share Posted March 5, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . This may prove trickier than i first thought - with the games available offering sending off odds quite limited, it may be something that i dip in and out of . . . Bet 2 Tuesday 6th March Liverpool v Barcelona £10 @ 1.26 Is this the type of game you want to be doing? By that I mean Champs League, seeing as your research is based on Domestic English Leagues? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Is this the type of game you want to be doing? Probably not to be honest ;) Majority of picks will be SPL/EPL/CCC based, as thems the only leagues that seem to offer the sending off market. Just have a hunch about this one shall we say. :$ :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Bet 2 Tuesday 6th March Liverpool v Barcelona £10 @ 1.26 :nana ----------------------- Bets 2 Winners 2 Bank £54.94 P/L £4.94 S/R 100% Yield 24.7% ----------------------- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted March 6, 2007 Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Well done. Next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 6, 2007 Author Share Posted March 6, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Next. Nowt fer wednesday . . . . Infact nowt 'til weekend! . . . . . :zzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 10, 2007 Author Share Posted March 10, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Bet 3 Saturday 10th March Middlesbrough v Man United £10 @ 1.19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 11, 2007 Author Share Posted March 11, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Bet 3 Saturday 10th March Middlesbrough v Man United £10 @ 1.19 :nana Will update stats later when i get home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 11, 2007 Author Share Posted March 11, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Bet 4 Sunday 11th March Plymouth v Watford £10 @ 1.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . Bet 4 Sunday 11th March Plymouth v Watford £10 @ 1.20 :nana Another winner! Will update this tonight . . . Starting to wish I'd done cumulative staking, say over a 5 game period with winnings goign onto next bet, starting again after a loser. With a high strike rate, it should improve returns. Will have a think and may adjust accordingly. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sheerluck Holmes Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 Re: A nice clean fight . . . In fact, from now on, if noboday minds, I'll run the two staking plans simultaneously, 'Banking' the profit from the the cumulative staking after 5 succesful bets (On 4 now!). So an update: After 4 bets Fixed Stakes BankOverall P/LS/RYield£58.65£8.65100.021.6 Cumulative Staking (1 more bet until profit banked) BankOverall P/LS/RYield£61.84£11.84100.021.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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