Guest Hit Posted September 5, 2003 Share Posted September 5, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Thursday 4th August Result 4.25 - Carlisle - JORDANS ELECT = Winner @ 4/6 :) No of bets: 64 Winners: 48 S/R: 75% Profit/Loss = +6.62pts Friday 5th September Selection 4.30 - Sedgefield - VIRGIN SOLDIER (forecast price 1/3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 6, 2003 Share Posted September 6, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Friday 5th September Result 4.30 - Sedgefield - VIRGIN SOLDIER = Winner @ 4/11 :) No of bets: 65 Winners: 49 S/R: 75.4% Profit/Loss = +6.98pts Saturday 6th September Selection 2.15 - Haydock - OASIS'S DREAM (forecast price 2/5) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 7, 2003 Share Posted September 7, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Saturday 6th September Result 2.15 - Haydock - OASIS'S DREAM = 2nd :( No of bets: 66 Winners: 49 S/R: 74.2% Profit/Loss = +5.98pts Sunday 7th September No selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 8, 2003 Share Posted September 8, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Monday 8th Sept Selection 4.05 - Bath - ELA FIGURA (forecast price 4/6) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 9, 2003 Share Posted September 9, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Monday 8th Sept Result 4.05 - Bath - ELA FIGURA = 2nd :( No of bets: 67 Winners: 49 S/R: 73.1% Profit/Loss = +4.98pts Tuesday 9th Sept Selection 3.55 - Catterick - PERSHAAN (forecast price 4/9) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 10, 2003 Share Posted September 10, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Tuesday 9th Sept Result 3.55 - Catterick - PERSHAAN = Winner @ 4/9 :) No of bets: 68 Winners: 50 S/R: 73.5% Profit/Loss = +5.42pts Wednesday 10th Sept Selections 2.00 - Epsom - TOTALLY YOURS (forecast price 2/7) 3.50 - Hereford - ENITSAG (forecast price 1/14) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 11, 2003 Share Posted September 11, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Wednesday 10th Sept Results 2.00 - Epsom - TOTALLY YOURS = Winner @ 2/9 :) 3.50 - Hereford - ENITSAG = Winner @ 1/4 :) No of bets: 70 Winners: 52 S/R: 74.3% Thursday 11th Sept No selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 12, 2003 Share Posted September 12, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Friday 12th Sept No selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 13, 2003 Share Posted September 13, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Saturday 13th Sept Selection 1.20 - Doncaster - KHELEYF (forecast price 4/6) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 14, 2003 Share Posted September 14, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Saturday 13th Sept Result 1.20 - Doncaster - KHELEYF = Winner @ 1/2 :) No of bets: 71 Winners: 53 S/R: 74.6% Profit/Loss = +6.39pts Sunday 14th Sept Selection 4.40 - Worcester - CERESFIELD (forecast price 4/5) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest david2 Posted September 14, 2003 Share Posted September 14, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Cersefield is in a HANDICAP chase, so therefore, no selection? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 14, 2003 Share Posted September 14, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Thanks David2, somehow forgot to check what type of race it was this time. Have you been following the system? It seems to have gone downhill. Sunday 14th Sept NO SELECTION Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest david2 Posted September 15, 2003 Share Posted September 15, 2003 Re: Horse racing system It hasn't really gone downhill, it's only that a system of this type, highish %, all odds on, will take time. Have you thought of a staking plan, rather than straight level stakes? All the best, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 15, 2003 Share Posted September 15, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Yeah, but it's gone from from around +11 to around +4 and slowly rising again... I haven't actually been placing any bets, because I don't have the money to at the moment. What kind of staking plan do you use? I wonder where JT's got to? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 15, 2003 Share Posted September 15, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Monday 15th Sept Selections 3.45 - Musselburgh - SUGGESTIVE (forecast price 1/12) 4.35 - Redcar - DISTANT COUNTRY (forecast price 4/7) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest david2 Posted September 15, 2003 Share Posted September 15, 2003 Re: Horse racing system two below are for high striking, mostly odds on selections. 1) Optimum starting bet = 7pts - decrease bet by 1pt after a winner - reset bet to 7 after a loser 2) Divide your bank by 10 to find your first stake. If selection loses: Divide Bank by 10 again to find second stake Continue dividing by 10 until a winner After a winner: Divide bank by 5 (always divide by 5 after a winner) If next selection loses: Divide bank by 7.5 to find next stake If Lose: Divide by 10 and continue dividing by 10 until a winner Recap: A) 1/10th of betting bank until a winner, then go to B) B) 1/5th of betting bank after a winner, until a loser. then go to C) C) 1/7.5th of betting bank after a loser D) If 1/7.5th wins, stake 1/5th on next bet - B) & keep to B) 1/5 until loser. E) If 1/7.5th loses, go to A) stake 1/10th on next bet & repeat at 1/10th until winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 16, 2003 Share Posted September 16, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Cheers for the staking plans David. The RacingPost site's not working at the moment, so I'll try again tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 16, 2003 Share Posted September 16, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Will do the Monday results later. Tuesday 16th Sept Selection 3.55 - Thirsk - SON OF HALLING (forecast price 8/11) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 17, 2003 Share Posted September 17, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Monday 15th Sept Results 3.45 - Musselburgh - SUGGESTIVE = Winner @ 1/8 :) 4.35 - Redcar - DISTANT COUNTRY = Winner @ 4/6 :) Tuesday 16th Sept Result 3.55 - Thirsk - SON OF HALLING = Winner @ 4/9 :) So Far No of bets: 74 Winners: 56 S/R: 75.7% Profit/Loss = +7.63pts Wednesday 17th Sept No selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 18, 2003 Share Posted September 18, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Thursday 18th Sept Selection 2.25 - Yarmouth - CAPPED FOR VICTORY (forecast price 1/3) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 19, 2003 Share Posted September 19, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Thursday 18th Sept Result 2.25 - Yarmouth - CAPPED FOR VICTORY = 2nd :( No of bets: 75 Winners: 56 S/R: 74.7% Profit/Loss = +6.63pts Friday 19th Sept Selection 3.05 - Nottingham - QUARTINO (forecast price 2/7) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 20, 2003 Share Posted September 20, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Friday 19th Sept Result 3.05 - Nottingham - QUARTINO = Winner @ 2/11 :) No of bets: 76 Winners: 57 S/R: 75% Profit/Loss = +6.81pts Saturday 20th Sept Selections 2.00 - Catterick - BLOEMFONTAIN (forecast price 1/9) 2.20 - Warwick - IFFRAAJ (forecast price 10/11) 4.15 - Catterick - WAINWRIGHT (forecast price 10/11) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 21, 2003 Share Posted September 21, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Saturday 20th Sept Results 2.00 - Catterick - BLOEMFONTAIN = Winner @ 1/12 :) 2.20 - Warwick - IFFRAAJ = Winner @ 4/7 :) 4.15 - Catterick - WAINWRIGHT = 2nd :( No of bets: 79 Winners: 59 S/R: 74.7% Profit/Loss = +6.46pts Sunday 21st Sept No selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 22, 2003 Share Posted September 22, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Monday 22nd Sept No selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 23, 2003 Share Posted September 23, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Tuesday 23rd Sept Selections 3.35 - Fontwell - FLYING SPIRIT (forecast price 2/5) 4.30 - Newmarket - MAHMOOM (forecast price 4/5) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 24, 2003 Share Posted September 24, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Tuesday 23rd Sept Results 3.35 - Fontwell - FLYING SPIRIT = Unseated Rider :( 4.30 - Newmarket - MAHMOOM = Winner @ 4/6 :) No of bets: 81 Winners: 60 S/R: 74.1% Profit/Loss = +6.14pts Wednesday 24th Sept No selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 25, 2003 Share Posted September 25, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Thursday 25th Sept Selections 4.10 - Pontefract - DESTINATION DUBAI (forecast price 1/2) 5.35 - Goodwood - INCHBERRY (forecast price 1/2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted September 25, 2003 Share Posted September 25, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Hi Hit impressive looking system there - well done. Haven't noticed it till now, as I don't normally stray too far from S&S and GC! Have you thought about entering the system in the systems league in S&S? FWIW, having looked at your results/data - I'd recommend a fixed profits staking plan - aiming to win about 4% of your bank on each bet. M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Hit Posted September 26, 2003 Share Posted September 26, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Hi Mick, It's not really my system - I've just taken over posting the selections... I don't know where JT's got to? I'll have a proper look at the Systems League tomorrow. I've not been actually placing any bets on the system yet, but I'll have a look into your staking plan. Have you worked out how it would have done so far? Regards, Hit. Thursday 25th Sept Results 4.10 - Pontefract - DESTINATION DUBAI = 2nd :( 5.35 - Goodwood - INCHBERRY = Non Runner No of bets: 82 Winners: 60 S/R: 73.2% Profit/Loss = +5.14pts Friday 26th Sept No selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest madmick Posted September 26, 2003 Share Posted September 26, 2003 Re: Horse racing system Hi Hit No I haven't done the full analysis, it is more a question of principle. Fixed profits staking is based on the idea that the chance of something winning is proportional to the odds offered (which in general I think we can accept). A longer odds selection therefore will win less often than a short odds selection. Assuming level stakes, there will be more bank fluctuation, and thus more risk, with longer odds. By moving to fixed profits you compensate for this variation. In terms of what profit to aim at, the Kelly criterion can be a guide. Your yield is in the region of 7.5%. Full Kelly staking would therefore suggest that you try and win 7.5% of bank on each bet. However, many people would regard this as too aggressive, so 'half-Kelly' is a compromise, and thus the figure of 4%. If you have the results in a spreadsheet (or even text) format, I'd be happy to do the analysis for you. M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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