JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends good shout on Paco mate, i only have about 3 ascot races sorted but will do the hunt cup tomorrow

[diamond1924]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends I tried to work out my lines today using trends and had a fair bit of luck (I used the trends already posted in the Raceform paper). I too got Paco Boy (had won group race over 1m & second best RR) v. Gladitorus (was it that good?) in the first, Scenic Blast (poor draw) v. Tax Free (not group 1), and Mastercraftsman. For tomorrow's races I've also came up with Vision D'Etat so fingers crossed. Thanks for the pointers earlier.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Lets start with the usual and take out those at the wrong end of the market namely , ESTEJO , TAZEEZ , TRINCOT and VIRTUAL [also never won over 10f ] Now for the significant one !! TARTAN BEARER has NEVER won at Grp 1 grade , NEVER ran in a Grp 1 last time out and ran INSIDE the UK last time so is out of the equation. The 1st and 2nd of those stats also apply to TWICE OVER so he's out too. That leaves the French trained NEVER ON SUNDAY and VISION D'ETAT . NEVER ON SUNDAY has won 7 from 10 outings with the last being a Grp 1 [9f] at Longchamp on Soft going and 3 being on Good ground. He has won twice over the 10f and as well as that Grp 1 last time he has also won a Grp 3 and a Listed race . Rated 116 [ 1lb below the preferred ] VISION D'ETAT has won 7 races from 9 and has won two Grp 1's and a Grp 2 . A winner 3 times over the 10f he might prefer a bit of give in the ground but his last win [a 10 and half Furlongs , Grp1 at Longchamp on Good going] was 0.56 secs faster than standard. Personally if i had to go for one it would be the the latter with his extra Group wins but other than that it's hard to separate them . Stake 5pts VISION D'ETAT @ 10/3 - Lads Stake 5pts NEVER ON A SUNDAY @ 9/2 - Wm Hill.

VISION D'ETAT 1ST @ 4/1 :loon NEVER ON A SUNDAY 3rd ;) Just got in from work , never even heard the race on the radio !!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 3.45 Gold Cup 20f Grp 1 -------------------------- 12/13 were aged between 4 and 6 y-old 11/13 were rated 111+ 11/13 had ran either 1 or 2 races that season , 7 had won. 12/13 had won at least 4 races 11/13 started at 11/1 or under [ 3 Favs of which YEATS was 2 ] 11/13 had winning form at Grp 1 or 2 level 6/13 had ran in the HENRY II Stakes at Sandown , 2 had won it. 0/10 were Mares [ a 5th place from 7 runners under 20/1 is the best finish for this sex ] Lets clear out the [ alleged] no-hopers according to the market ,so it's goodbye WASHINGTON IRVING , SAGARA , HINDU KUSH , CENTENNIAL and EASTERN ANTHEM . VERACITY has only won [ once ] at Group 3 level , as has PATKAI [ twice in Group 3 co ]. Which leaves us with two 8 y-olds !!!! An age group that has not won for at least 60 years . Indeed YEATS success last year was only the 2nd time in that 60 year period that a 7 y-old won the race . However it's class we're looking for and these 2 old codgers are the best on paper . Theres not much more anyone can say about YEATS record , both career-wise and in the Gold Cup . However his seasonal re-appearance when 6th [btn 32l] in a race at Navan he won easily in the previous 2 seasons , causes some concern imo . That was his worst ever placing when racing in Ireland or England , he has finished down the field when racing in France , Canada and Australia . GEORDIELAND would be on a hat-trick of wins if it wasn't for YEATS being around at the same time !! Again those two 2nd's and 3 wins at Group 2 grade show his class and he made a very pleasing debut when beating the , then Fav for this , PATKAI in the HENRY II at Sandown . That's a race from which the winner has a decent record here . To be honest i can see one of these feeling it's age but probably not both and more likely the former . Stake 5pts GEORDIELAND @ 3/1 Stake 5pts YEATS @ 9/4

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Theres not much more anyone can say about YEATS record , both career-wise and in the Gold Cup . However his seasonal re-appearance when 6th [btn 32l] in a race at Navan he won easily in the previous 2 seasons , causes some concern imo . That was his worst ever placing when racing in Ireland or England , he has finished down the field when racing in France , Canada and Australia . GEORDIELAND would be on a hat-trick of wins if it wasn't for YEATS being around at the same time !! Again those two 2nd's and 3 wins at Group 2 grade show his class and he made a very pleasing debut when beating the , then Fav for this , PATKAI in the HENRY II at Sandown . That's a race from which the winner has a decent record here . To be honest i can see one of these feeling it's age but probably not both and more likely the former . Stake 5pts GEORDIELAND @ 3/1 Stake 5pts YEATS @ 9/4

YEATS 1st @ 6/4f :loon GEORDIELAND 3rd @ 11/4 A small profit on the day as taking the early prices [9/4 ] went for us this time!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Friday 3.45 Grp 1 Coronation Stakes 8f 3y-old Fillies --------------------------------------------------------- 11/13 started at 8/1 or under [ 5 jt or clear Favs] 12/13 ran over 8f LTO 12/13 won/ran in either the English , Irish or French Guineas 10/13 won or were placed at Grp 1 level , the last 8 won at Group level. 7 of the last 9 winners were rated 110+ To cut to the chase there's only 4 currently in single figures odds-wise so it may pay ton concentrate on the remaining 4 . RAINBOW VIEW ran disappointingly when odds-on in the 1000gns and then was 4th in the Oaks . Attempting to do what LUSH LASHES did last season and that was take this after being beaten in both of those 2 races . But J GOSDEN stated that the going was against her at Newmarket and it looks like the ground will still be on the Firm side of Good tomorrow and imo she probably be better over 10f . AGAIN won the Irish Guineas but has done nearly all his best racing on Soft or Heavy going . The record of English 1000gns winners isn't the greatest with only 3 of the past 12 going on to win next time but 3 did go on to win this from 8 runners . GHANAATI must have a Favs chance and conditions should suit. ELUSIVE WAVE has won 6 out of 7 with the only defeat being in the MARCEL BOUSSAC at Longchamp on Arc day . She has ran twice this season , winning both , and her last win was in the French 1000 and although 7 previous winners of that race have ran here and been defeated , no less than 4 finished 2nd here. The 2nd that day went on to finish 2nd in the French Oaks behind the highly thought-off STACELITA . I'm directed toward the more experienced ELUSIVE WAVE who has proved he can make all or sit in behind the leaders . With this being a 3y-old race the result will not be inc in main Trends bets.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GHANAATI did indeed have a Favs chance - 1st @ 2/1 with ELUSIVE WAVE 4th :eyes 3.05 Ascot Hardwicke Stakes 12f Grp 2 ------------------------------------------ 13/13 were 4, 5 or 6 y olds 10/10 with a rating were rated at 113 or above. 13/13 were returned at 12/1 or UNDER [ only 1/10 Fav ] 12/13 ran at Group level LTO with 8 in Group 1 company LTO 12/13 had ran that season , with 10 of them being placed in the first 3 on at least one occasion. 12/13 had won at Group 2 /3 grade 12/13 ran at Grp 1-3 level LTO 10/13had won over 12/13f. 7/13 had ran in the Coronation Cup at the DERBY meeting LTO without winning it No horse running here ran in the Coronation Cup and all the 9 runners are within the age group of 4 - 6y-old . So lets take out the no-hopers - ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE , STEELE TANGO and BARSHIBA . There are a few that are under the ratings limit - TAJAWEED , who also has never won past 10f . ENROLLER , who has won only when theres Soft in the going report BRONZE CANNON whose only win above Handicap grade was that 3 runner affair at Newmarket when beating Casual Conquest [ all at seas on the ground ] DANSANT could be a fly in the ointment having raced mainly on an artificial surface and thats where he has won 6 of his 8 career victories . All of those 6 wins were in Listed company and thats the highest grade he has won at . But imo he will lack the class needed to win on the turf at this level . DOCTOR FREEMANTLE has won 2 Group 3's but significantly both were around Chester's tight track and one of those was at 12f. Ran and won at Grp 3 LTO and rated 113. CAMPANOLOGIST has won at Group 2 [ King Edward Stakes here last season over the 12f ] He has ran once this season and that was when 8th [ only btn 3l ] in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown. The going holds no problems and he is top rated at 115 . Despite the poor form of GODOLPHIN so far i'm going to go for CAMPANOLOGIST here as he has won at a higher grade then CAPTAIN FREEMANTLE and i'm wary of the fact that the latters 2 Group wins were at Chester , a track a million miles away from Ascot. Don't have the stats to go on but the fact that the selection DIDN'T run in Dubai this season is a positive to me . Stake 10pts - CAMPANOLOGIST @ 10/3 . Odds on the CAPTAIN are too short to split the stakes .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Don't think CAMPANOLOGIST truly lasted out the stiff 12f in what will probably turn out to be hane been the poorest Hardwicke in recent years , imo of course ....:@

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Will tidy up the totals so far after this race tomorrow [ Thursday ] Newcastle 5.00 Listed 10f Fillies and Mares ---------------------------------------------------- 10/10 were Southern trained 9/10 were returned in the top 3 in the betting 9/10 were rated 94+ [ 8 were in the top 2 rated ] 9/10 ran in Listed /Group company LTO 8/10 had won or been placed 2nd in a 10f race It's been a 50/50 split between the 3y-olds and the Older brigade . CHANGING SKIES and TACTFUL are Nr's GRIPSHOLM CASTLE has no rating MEDICI PEARL , SYVILLA , QUEEN MARTA and LAUGHTER are well below the preferred BHA rating. MOON SISTER did not run in Listed /Group company LTO. That leaves LADY JANE DIGBY and TOTTIE to consider . Even though LJD is trained in the North , it's from the Mark Johnston stable so i'll give a bit of leeway there . Ran in a Listed event last time at Warwick [ 3rd ] and rated 98 here . Won twice over the 10f , both times on the AW and is around the Fav/2nd Fav mark according to the RP forecast . TOTTIE is Southern trained , finished 3rd in an 11f Listed race and is bred to stay the 10f . She ran LTO in the OAKS where she was well down the field , but 2 previous winners have also came here after finishing out of the frame at Epsom. TOTTIE comes down a fair bit in class here and that seems to be the trend as 5 previous winners have dropped down from Group class to take this. She is bred to see the trip and the ground should be fine . When 3rd first time out this season she appeared not to handle the track at Lingfield but was running on in the home straight , RP stated she would favour a more galloping track . STAKE 5pts - TOTTIE STAKE 5pts - LADY JANE DIGBY

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends LADY JANE DIGBY 1st @ 2/1 :loon TOTTIE unp :eyes Selections - 64 Winners - 19 , 1 ew , 1 nr. Profit - 204.78pts So far , splitting the stake between the two main fancies seems to be paying off . Profit is building slower, of course , but still going in the right direction. I think there's 5 races to study for Saturday so i'm off into a darkened room for a while ;)

[Kanga]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Another great selection JTW :drums ... can i just ask are these results recorded at S.P or at the prices advised .... or a mixture of both ? :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Another great selection JTW :drums ... can i just ask are these results recorded at S.P or at the prices advised .... or a mixture of both ? :ok

Returns recorded at SP if no odds advised ; if odds advised then those odds are used .

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Good stuff again jtw :ok

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends A long story as to wh i'm a bit late in posting so i won't bore you with it . Here's the selections for today in a rather abbreiviated form 2.05 - Newcastle - ANCIEN REGIME + ATLANTIC SPORT 2.50 - Newmarket - ALL THE ACES + AGE OF REASON 3.00 - Windsor - ORDNACE ROW + PREMIER LOCO 3.25 - Newemarket - IMBONGI + EXPRESS WISH 3.40 - Curragh - LOOK HERE + DAR RE MI 5 pt win on each .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

A long story as to wh i'm a bit late in posting so i won't bore you with it . Here's the selections for today in a rather abbreiviated form 2.05 - Newcastle - ANCIEN REGIME + ATLANTIC SPORT 2.50 - Newmarket - ALL THE ACES 1st :loon 5/4 + AGE OF REASON 3.00 - Windsor - ORDNACE ROW + PREMIER LOCO 3.25 - Newemarket - IMBONGI 1st :loon 8/1 + EXPRESS WISH 3.40 - Curragh - LOOK HERE + DAR RE MI 1st :loon 9/2 5 pt win on each .

Sorry once more for the lateness of the posting , fortunately a nice hat-trick of winners . Selections - 74 Winners - 22 + 1 ew + 1nr Profit - 223.53pts :ok

[JB1979]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Another good haul from todays selections:clap

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers mate :ok CURRAGH - 3.40 - Listed - 3yo+. --------------------------------------- 8/8 were returned in the top 4 in the betting 8/8 were previous winners over 8f 6/7 with a Bha rating were rated 106+ 6/8 had won at Listed /Group grade [ other 2 placed in List/Grp co ] EMPIRICAL POWER and MARQUESA are nr's CELTIC DANE , AARONESS , LATIN LOVE and INDIANA GIRL are all sitting at double figures in the betting market . 3 left and from those EMILY BLAKE has won only when the ground is Soft or Heavy . She has won a couple of Grp 3's . If the forecast ground is indeed only Gd/Yld then it may not be testing enough for her. FAMOUS NAME is Fav and has won a Grp3 and a Listed race . One niggle is that he has been running over further in his past 3 outings [10/11f] and his trainer has been quoted that 9f is probably his optimum trip . The ground will not be a problem. JUMBAJUKIBA is a stallward in these races and a good yardstick . He loves give in the ground and the trip is no problem , although he has been running over 6/7f this season. He has won 4 Grp 3's and a couple of Listed races in his career and think if FAMOUS NAME and EMILY BLAKE have chinks in their armour this could be the one to exploit them. Take on the FAV here - Stake 5pts - JUMBAJUKIBA Stake 5pts - EMILY BLAKE.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Another respectable run from JUMBAJUKIBA gets him into 2nd place , but the Fav was a class or 2 above the rest :( 7.30 Fairyhouse - Grp 3 - 7f - 3yo+ Fillies and Mares ----------------------------------------------------------- This has been run as a Grp event over 7f at Leopardstown for the past 6 seasons , hopefully being run at Fairyhouse will not affect the trands too much . 6/6 returned at 8/1 or UNDER 6/6 rated 92+ 6/6 won or were placed last time out [ 4 won] 5/5 that had ran over 7f had won at the distance 5/5 that ran in Ireland last time did so at the Curragh , 4 of those were in Handicap company . There have been two winners each from the 3yo, 4yo and 5yo age group. Using the RP Betting forecast , we'll take out those over 10/1 which leaves us with half the field . Ratings wise they all pass , but looking at the placings acheived last time and we'll remove KALIDAHA as he finished 5th in a Group 3 . 2 runners did finish in the first 3 LTO but the other 3 were unp but in Group 1 + 2 events . There are two who have not won the 7f [ always a specialidt distance imo ] so off go FESTOSO + HEART SHAPED . That leaves CHANTILLY TIFFANY , MAOINEACH and LUMINOUS EYES . CHANTILLY TIFFANY has won at Grp 3 and Listed grade . Twice a winner over 7f sha ran respectably last time at Royal Ascot when 4th in the Grp 2 Windsor Forest Stakes . Although Ed Dunlop hasn't had a winner in Ireland in the past 5 season's , 4 of his 6 runners were placed 2nd or 3rd . One worry is that it's Group 3 win was over in Baden-Baden so it might be outclassed by these other 2 . MAOINEACH has won twice and both of those were Group 3's , one was also over the 7f . She won first time out this season when taking the Grp 3 1000 Gns Trial Stakes on G-F . After a couple of poor outings on Soft/Heavy [not her preferred ground] she ran 3rd [ btn one and a half lengths] over 6f last time on G/F in a Grp 3 at Leopardstown. LUMINOUS EYES has won twice , both over 7f , and one of those was in Grp 3 grade. She was well beaten 9th in the Irish Guineas on her debut , which is forgivable , but she seems to have a preference for give in the ground and if the forecast going of Good/Firm stays then she could be outpaced here . Summary - A lot depends on the ground and in that respect it's between MAOINEACH and LUMINOUS EYES. So with one eye on the weather i'll leave making a decision until i can see on ATR what the going is like . If theres been rain then i'll probably go for both but if it's G/F then i may go for MAOINEACH itself .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends It would appear after some rain this afternoon the going is now GOOD . Stake 5pts both - MAOINEACH and LUMINOUS EYES

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends LUMINOUS EYES btn a sh-hd into 2nd @ 8/1 MAOINEACH never in the race .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Fri - 4.00 Sandown - 10f - Listed 3yo+ --------------------------------------------- 7/7 were returned at 9/1 or Under 7/7 had ran at least twice that seaso 7/7 ran in at least Listed company LTO 6/7 rated 105+ 5/7 had won over 10f [ one other was placed 2nd+3rd at 10f ] 5/7 ran at Royal Ascot LTO 5/7 were placed 1st or 2nd LTO , the other 2 were unp in Grp 1 + events at the Royal meeting. 3y olds have won 5/7 but as there are none of that vintage running tomorrow , it could be that 4y-olds have an advantage as 2 have won and of the remaning 5 runnings , 4 of the runners-up in those were 4 y-olds. DEMOCRATE and GUARINO have not ran this season , while the probable Fav KIRKLEES hasn't technically ran on the Turf this season as his last outing was in Dubai in late March. This will the 5y-old HALICARNASSUS 8th outing of the season [much more than any other prev winner ] COVERT AMBITION is doubtful due to the ground being G/F and altought here is rain forecast overnight , the rest of the day would appear to be warm and dry . This should fall to either of Khaled Abadullah's pair of TRANQUIL TIGER and CONFRONT . The TIGER has won 5 Listed events , of which 2 were over 10f and all were either on Good or G/F going . Is around the 6/1 mark CONFRONT may start Fav here and represents the 'value' bet . This will be only his 7th career outing so improvement could still be on the cards . He has won a Class 2 and LTO was 3rd in a Group 3 at the Derby meeting. This will be his first outing over 10f but his pedigree and previous races suggest the distance should not be an issue . Stake 5pts TRANQUIL TIGER and CONFRONT .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SANDOWN 3.15 ECLIPSE STAKES 10f Grp 1 G/F ------------------------------------------------- 12/13 were returned at 12/1 or under , basically the top 5 in the betting but only 2 Favs have won in 13 runnings . 12/13 had won a Grp 1 race 8/9 with a rating were rated 115+ 10/13 had won that season , with the other 3 being placed 2nd in at least 1 run. 10/13 ran at Royal Ascot LTO , 3 from the QUEEN ANNE , 4 from the PRINCE of WALES , 2 from St JAMES'S PALACE and 1 from the HARDWICKE. 2 came from the Derby and 1 ran in France . The past 4 Three y-old winners all had ran in the 2000 gns. A OBRIEN - 4 STOUTE - 3 GODOLPHIN - 3 Basically with the market so strong in past years we can jump straight to the top 4 in the betting as any other winner will be a MAJOR upset . All 4 , CIMA DE TRIOMPHE , CONDUIT , RIP VAN WINKLE and SEA THE STARS have all won in Group 1 company and all are rated 115+. CIMA DE TRIOMPHE won the Italian Derby [ G1] but has been beaten in 3 subsequent outings in the top grade . CONDUIT would have a much better chance over a couple of furlongs further imo . He has won over 10f but that was a Cl 2 Handicap at Epsom and having won the St Leger and wins over 12f on either side of that i think that the true run 10f that this promises to be may tap him for toe. Although RIP VAN WINKLE has not won or been placed 2nd this season his 2 fourth spots have been in the 2000 gns and the Derby , only btn a couple of lengths in each race O'Brien runs a couple of apparent pacemakers here and the plan could pay off . SEA THE STARS needs no comment but history is against him as NASHWAN was the last horse to take the Guineas , Derby and Eclipse treble . Everything went right for him in the Derby , esp the pace set before Tattenham Corner it may be a different story here . STAKE 10pts - RIP VAN WINKLE . SANDOWN 2.05 5f Grp 3 G/F ------------------------------- 13/13 ran within 3 weeks of their last outing. 11/11 with a ratingwere rated 102+ 12/13 had ran a minimum of 3 races that season 12/13 were returned at 8/1 or under 11/13 ran at LISTED/GROUP class LTO 7/7 where there were double figure runners , that race was won by a horse drawn 8+ 4 x 3yo 9 x 4 - 6y olds From 14 3yo runners that started 8/1 or under there have been 4 winners and 3 x 2nd places . The draw would appear to have some signifigance here when there are 10+ runners The 3y-old bias could be a strong feature. Taking out those drawn 1 - 6 and the couple left which are over the preferred odds leaves us with IALYSOS , TRIPLE ASPECT and ANGLEZARKE. TRIPLE ASPECT will probably start FAV and his C/D win last time in Listed company was impressive as the stiff finish suited him [ 3 times a winner at 6f ] and Wm Haggas stated after the race he would be coming back for this . Has won a Group 3 and a couple of Listed events . ANGLEZARKE is a true 5f horse who was only just over 3l behind Scenic Blast at Royal Ascot LTO , where she was reportedly coming into season. She should be making her move 2 out and could well be good enough here, but Easterby's yard is still finding winners hard to come by and i think the other 2 have better chances . IALYSOS was bumped and barged in the Golden Jubilee and that appeared to unsettle him , he trailed in well beaten . He had to leave Greece as no horse across there could give him any competition and he won first time over here beating ANGLZARKE , who now gets 5lb less for a nk beating. He has won at 5/6 and 7f and has been clocked at 54 secs over the 5f there . If IALYSOS has not been affected by his experience at Royal Ascot , and can reproduce some of his Greek form he must go close here . TRIPLE ASPECT won well here over C/D last time and will take all the beating again . Stake 5PTS EACH .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Sandown 4.20 2m Listed 4yo+ ------------------------------------ 6/6 were rated 100+ 5/6 had won over 14/16f 4/6 had won at Listed/Group level. Provided her debut at Haydock can be put down to being a bit ring-rusty and run over an inadequate 12f , then GRAVITATION stands out here , as she is the only runner rated over 100 [ 108 ] . She has won over 14f and was 3rd to PATKAI in last season's Queens Vase over the 2m. She is the only runner who has won at Group level , indeed none of the others have won at Listed grade. Stake 10pts @ 4/1 - Ladbrokes

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends IALYSOS 1st @ 9/2 :loon TRIPLE ASPECT 2nd @ 13/8f RIP VAN WINKLE 2nd @ 11/2 :) GRAVITATION unp @ 17/2 :@ Can't complain about the first 2 races , The 'Greek Freak' seems back to his best !!:loon while in SEA THE STARS we have a genuine class racehorse and RVW ran a gallant 2nd at decent odds . GRAVITATION looks like one to avoid for a while , the market told us it's chance's today .

[StuSimmy]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well done with Ialysos, seems as if it was a very popular bet on here yesterday.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheer Stu :ok I've done a bit of back-checking as theres something thats been niggling me for a few weeks now and thats the record of selections in LISTED races . So far there has been 33 flagged up both here and in Ireland and of those we had the winner 9 times for a profit of just over 20pts to the advised bets. I am getting wary of these events but will still study them and post selections until the end of the season. Maybe it's because you can get a few progressive types that can easily make the jump from Handicaps to Listed grade , esp 3y-olds against older horses , that can catch me out , who knows ?? Another thing that i'm monitoring is selecting 2 horses in the same race , one of those is usually the 1st or 2nd Fav so these are basically running to return the stake money . Maybe it's just the change in habit as this approach has helped losses occuring , it just grates when the winner is what would have been the sole main bet and it comes in at half stake !!! I may also start to take a look at Place betting where possible and the odds allow a decent return . Obviously these will be in races where theres a strong Fav [ eg Sea The Stars ] Anyhow looks like Newmarket will be the next port of call on Wednesday.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 3.10 Newmarket - Group 1 Falmouth Stakes - 8f - 3y-old+ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Age - 3yold's have won 9/13 , in fact they have won 23/30 . No horse aged over 5 won in the past 30 runnings. Odds - 12/13 were returned at 10/1 or UNDER. Ratings - Since the race was upgraded to Grp 1 status 4/5 were rated 111+ Ran LTO - 12/13 ran at either Royal Ascot or France , last 5 [ Grp 1 ] ran in a Group 1 race. Placed LTO - 12/13 finished in the first 6 . Distance wins - 11/13 were winners over 8f. Horses rejected on grounds of odds + rating are COSMOPOLITAN , SAN SICHARIA and PENNY'S GIFT . Age rules out the 6y-old HEAVEN SENT. EVA'S REQUEST has only won at Grp 3 grade and has been beaten at both Group 1 +2 level so i would expext her to be outclasssed here . SPACIOUS won well in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot last time but again lacks that Group 1 win which 3 of the last 5 winners have achieved. GOLDIKOVA , a 4y-old , is the best rated horse in the race [125] and with 2 Group 1 wins in France as well as victory in the Breeders Cup mile on her C.V it's easy to see why. All those wins were over the Mile and the US win was on G/F going [ other 2 wereon G/S ] There is a doubt about her temperament however as she has shown reluctance to load into stalls and that happened on her seasonal reappearance when she was a disappointing 7th LTO. This could be RAINBOW VIEWS return to the winners enclosure . After disappointment in the Guineas when beaten by GHANATTI at short-odds she then ran a gallant 5th in the Oaks and then showed promise when 3rd [ behind GHANATTI ] in the Coronation Stakes [Grp1] at Royal Ascot . A winner over 8f [twice] and in Group 1 + 2 company , her biggest advantage over the French challenger is her age . With 23 of the past 30 runnings falling to a 3y-old , inc the past 3 when the race was upgraded to Gp1 standard . The other 2 runnings as Grp 1 fell to the super SOVIET SONG as a 4+5 year old. Stake 7 pts on RAINBOW VIEW @ 5/2 - Corals Stake 3 pts on GOLDIKOVA @ 2/1 - Generally available .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GOLDIKOVA certainly was a different class - 1st :D RAINBOW VIEW - 4th :eyes So the 'insurance bet ' gets most of our stake back , let's hope for a better return on Thursday . Newmarket 3.10 Group 2 3yo+ 12f Soft ------------------------------------------------ 12/13 were returned at 12/1 or under , only 1 Fav. 12/13 had won at Listed/Group level , only 2 had won at Grp 1 and carried the penalty for that win. 11/13 were 12f winners 11/13 had ran that season . 11/13 had ran at Group level LTO. 9/10 with a BHA rating were rated 111+ 5 of the last 7 had ran at Royal Ascot. 0/13 were mares Interestingly of the past 13 winners no fewer than 8 had won at Newmarket [ both courses and different distances ] and the other 2 who had a course run were placed 2nd [ btn a half length ] and 3rd . 2 had never ran at the Course. Odds - Take out DRUMFIRE [ 20/1] and INDIAN DAYS [50/1] Rating - ALWAARY only rated 107 . Group wins - All the remaining 6 had won at Listed/Group class and are Distance winners. Group grade LTO - ALL THE ACES only ran in a Listed race LTO and has been beaten by both CAMPANOLOGIST and DOCTOR FREEMANTLE in Grp 2 events and ENROLLER as a 3yo. Recent run - SCHIAPARELLI hasn't ran in 227 days and would ' appear' to be Godolphin's 2nd string [ been burnt by that one before !!! ] The remaining 4 have either won or been 2nd at Newmarket . With dry weather forecast i'm happy to discount ENROLLER as his 3 wins have been on SOFT [2] and G/S [1] while the ground is officially GOOD . Although DUNCAN ran a great race when 4th LTO in the Grp 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom LTO , he has only won at Listed grade but still has the scope to win a race like this . Sir M Stoute has a decent record in this with 3 winners from the past 9 runnings but DOCTOR FREEMANTLE's last run was pretty abysmal by any standards . As i pointed out in that last race his 2 Group 3 wins were at Chester which as we know is achalk to Newmarket's cheese . CAMPANOLOGIST done everything right bar win at Royal Ascot in the Hardwicke last time [ a race which 3 of the past 13 winners has emerged] A Group 2 winner he has ran in Group 1-3 company in his last 6 outings and has never been beaten more than 2l in any of those , apart from his seasonal debut in the 10f Brig Gerard Stakes . The good ground should suit and the distance is not a problem imo. Stake 7.5pts on CAMPANOLOGIST @ 5/1 - Ladbrokes Stake 2.5pts on DUNCAN @ 5/2 - Generally available.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Now then lets review without any sweary words - Stoute keeps his great record in this race with DOCTOR FREEMANTLE :\ while CAMPANOLOGIST manages to finish in front of DUNCAN :clap ......unfortunately in 2nd last and last places respectively :@:@:@:@:@:@ fair enough DUNCAN just didn't settle and is worth another shot at the grade , but CAMPANOLOGIST ?? Much more of that and i'll be on an early sabbatical from the game :\

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends CURRAGH 4.00 Group 3 7f Yielding 3yo+ --------------------------------------------- Although it has been a Grp 3 race for 10 seasons it was run over 8f from '98 to 2000 and from 2002 to 2006 it was for 4yo+ 11/11 were returned at 5/1 or under [ 3 favs ] 11/11 were rated 102+ 10/11 had WON that season with 8 successful LTO 8/8 were 7f winners [ when distance was shortened from 8f ] 9/11 had won/been placed in Listed/Group company 3yo's have won 2 from the 5 races they contested 4yo's have won 2/10 5/6yo's have won 7/10. UK raiders have won 4 times from 14 runners and when those that started at 5/1 or under it is 4 wins and 4 seconds from 12 runners. Rating - GUNGA DIN is only rated 93. Distance - 7f is definately one of those where a previous win is a Big positive so with ROCK OF ROCHELLE [ 3 wins at 6f ] , , SNAEFELL [ 6 wins between 5 and 6f ] , AL QASI [ 5 wins at 6f ] and DOHASA [ 4 wins at 5+6f ] never having won over the dist , i'm discounting them here. Wins this season -DOHASA and AL QASI also make this list as well as GEORGEBERNARDSHAW whose 2 career wins have both been on Heavy [ rain is forecast ] but seems to have fallen out of love with the game looking at this seasons results. Wins/Places in Group co - Three Rocks has won twice earlier this season but his 4 career wins have never been in Listed grade , nevermind at Group level. Then there was 2 - JUMBAJUKIBA who is still a force at the age of 6 , but he does seem to be finding one to good in most of his runs this season and i think the 2 year younger MAD ABOUT YOU can pip him here . MAD ABOUT YOU'S record in 7f races is 1 , 2 , 3 , 1 , 2 and all those , with the exception of his winning debut , have been in at least Listed grade . His running style [ usually tracks the leader in 3rd/4th ]should help here with JUMBAJUKIBA almost certain to lead from the start and the forecast rain will not hinder unless it turns Heavy , so keep an eye out fot that.