JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends :hope We can kick the weekend off with a winner . 2.35 Newmarket 12f Listed 3yo+ -------------------------------------- Race was dead-heated for 1st in 2002 , hence 11 past winners studied. 10/11 were returned 12/1 or Under. 10/11 were 3 or 4 yo [ 5 apiece ] 10/11 ran at Group level LTO 10/11 had ran and won at least once that season Only the last 8 winners had BHA ratings and all those were 98+ 6/11 ran in the Lancs Oaks LTO Six 4/5yo's have carried a penalty and 3 have won. J GOSDEN has won this 3 times. AGE , ODDS and WINNERS this season leave us with - DAR RE MI [3yo] rated 105 and ran in a Grp 2 LTO. Trained by J GOSDEN . ARTHURS GIRL [3yo] rated 102 + ran Group 2 LTO FOLK OPERA [4yo] rated 107 + ran Group 2 LTO ICON PROJECT [3yo] rated 97 + ran Group 2 LTO RONALDSAY [4yo] rated 102 + ran Listed LTO So with ICON PROJECT only rated 97 and RONALDSAY running only at Listed grade LTO i'm taking them out of the equation. There's nothing to separate DAR RE MI + ARTHURS GIRL , although the Trainer would have clinced it for the probable Fav . FOLK OPERA gets the nod due to two other stats which are positives , those are - 1 - It ran in the LANCASHIRE OAKS last time out which no fewer than 6 previous winners have done 2 - It is a 4yo carrying a penalty from which there have been 6 other runners previously and 3 have been sucessful.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 4.30 Newbury 10f Listed 3yo+ ------------------------------------ No age group appears to have an advantage 8/9 were returned at 7/1 or under 9/9 were rated 102+ 8/9 had ran that season with all 8 finishing 1st or 2nd at least once. 7/9 were 10f winners 7/9 had won at Listed/Group level 7/9 ran Listed/Grp grade TLO , 9/9 ran List/Grp in last or 2nd last outing. 4 look promising for 7/1 or under and they are - BANKABLE , rated 113 and has won at Listed grade . Ran in a Cl2 Handicap LTO [ Royal Hunt Cup at RA ] and has won twice this season. Never won beyond 8f . AL SHEMALI , rated 108 , won 36k Handicap in Dubai . Ran at Listed class LTO and is a 10f winner. Won once this season. SPANISH MOON , rated 108 and has won a Listed event . Never won over 10f but has won at 12f. Ran in a Grp 2 LTO and has won once this season. PASSAGE OF TIME , rated 115 and has won at Grp 1+3 level. Ran in a Grp 3 LTO and won at 10f . Has not been placed 1st or 2nd this season. Although PASSAGE OF TIME has by far and away the best form it has not shown it this season and came stone last of 14 in the Brigadier Gerard . I can't select this one here , even though CECIL had 4 entries to choose from . AL SHEMANI has only won a Class 5 Maiden and a 36k Handicap over in Dubai . SPANISH MOON takes a step down in class here after a disappointing run in the Hardwicke at RA .He got warm at the stalls , had to have the blinds fitted to go in and then ran 'furiously early on ' and when the race began in earest it had nothing left. Had impressed previously when winning FTO this season in a Listed event from LADY GLORIA who went on to win a GRP 3 at the Derby meeting BANKABLE ran creditably LTO in the Hunt Cup when drawn 25 and the first 4 home were drawn 4 ,1 , 5 , 6. It was reported as being excitable in the paddock , had to have the hood re-fitted at the start before going into the stalls and then was isolated in the center of the track after missing the break and the majority of the field went over to the stands rails. BANKABLE will be hard to beat if settling and it manages to get the 10f , which it should on breeding , but i'm hoping that Ryan Moore can settle SPANISH MOON and with the Fav currently 6/4 with Betfair and the selection around 11/2 i believe the 'value' is with STOUTE'S horse. The STOUTE/MOORE combination won this last season. To be honest it's hard to separate those 2 and should really suggest splitting stakes on both to ensure a return .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends FOLK OPERA 2nd @ 5/2 jt fav SPANISH MOON unp behind PASSAGE OF TIME !! Was there a stewards enquiry ?? If not then why not ?

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Putting this up now as i'm off on hols come Friday and most of the main players are now known. KING GEORGE Ascot Sat 12f Grp 1 3yo+ ------------------------------------------- 10/10 came from the top 4 in the betting [ 13/2 ] and 6 were Fav. 9/10 had won at Group 1 level , other won Grp 2 9/10 had won over 12f 9/10 had won at least 4 races in its career 9/10 had ran that season , with 8 winning. 9/9 with a previous run had ran 2-4 times 8/10 ran at Grp 1 grade LTO , other 2 ran Grp 2. 8/10 with a rating were rated 120+ Age - 6 x 4yo , 2 x 3yo , 1 x 5yo , 1 x 6yo. Summary ---------- Out of what looks like being the top 4/5 in the betting we can ignore the chances of ASK who has only won at Grp 3 level and is a 5yo. Next to go is PAPAL BULL who has similarly not won a Grp 1 ,but it's Grp 2 would give it a chance if it had actually won a race this season and not been a 5yo. DUKE OF MARMALADE is one of 3 Grp 1 winners in the field , is rated 126 and will start Fav , so far so good ; However it has not ran , never mind win over the 12f . With 2 wins over an extended 10f and his breeding looking doubtful i'm going to take it on. At first glance i thought YOUMZAIN would be the obvious challenger with it's 2 Group 1 wins over the 12f and rated 125 were definate positives . But the going might not be in it's favour if there is no significant rainfall up till Saturday. Winning LTO at St Cloud on G/S , Channon has staed in the past that that type of ground was perfect for his charge and even with the course watering in readyness for the meeting i think the going will be on the fast side of good. It has won twice on going officially described as G/F and Firm but one was a3 runner Cl 5 conditions stakes at Catterick where the 3rd was btn a distance [ race slow by over 6 secs ] and the other was a Listed event at Newmarket where there was only 5 runners and again the race time was slow by over 4 secs on G/f. Also a 5yo which is a neg. That leaves LUCARNO to cause a slight upset here . The remaining Group 1 winner from the top of the betting it will have no problems with the ground [ won the Leger on G/F with race time 4 secs BELOW ave ] or the distance [ won twice over 12f ]. Theres no doubt it stole it's last race , Grp 2 on G/S , but i think that it can still improve from that run and reverse form with St Cloud running with YOUMZAIN It is a 4yo , the age group that has won 6 of the last 8 runnings [ other 2 won by 3yo's of which there are no runners this season ] Negatives - Only rated 116

[MidasTouch]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Have a great break jtw1 and come back with batteries recharged as I for one have missed your very astute analysis these last few days. I to am away on hols today down to the south of france with the caravan so please be patient on the roads? Ha-Ha :lol MidasTouch

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers MIDAS :ok and have a great holiday yourself . Unfortunately , some may say , i'm still hoping to be posting throughout the 2 weeks as we're staying with friends and i'll have access to their PC. I've posted the KG stats early as posting on Saturday could be dodgy .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Friday 3.20 Listed 8f 3yo+ ------------------------------ 6/6 were 3yo's 6/6 carried no penalty 6/6 had only won between Cl 2 - Cl 5 5/6 were returned at 11/2 or Under 5/6 had only won once previously 5/6 were rated 93+ 5/6 had been placed in Listed/Group company Although 3yo's have won the 6 runnings there have been few older horses under 11/2 that have competed in this race . BARSHIBA [4yo] rated 110 , has won a Listed Handicap which was one of 2 career wins. It has been 2nd in a Grp 2 , 3rd in Gp3 and 4th in a Grp 1 in it's career. BAHAARA [4yo] rated 109 , has won a Cl2 which was one of 3 wins . Has been 2nd in a Listed and 5th ,only btn one length in a Grp 3. FESTIVALE [3yo] rated 101 and won a Listed Handicap LTO , which was her 2nd win . Has been 3rd in a Grp3 and 3rd in a Listed. SHAKER [3yo] rated 96 and has won a Cl 5 , it's only career victory. Was placed 4th LTO only btn two and a quarter lengths in the Listed H'cap won by FESTIVALE. SUMMARY --------- I have to assume that the record of the 3yo's is genuine and with that in mind i'm putting a line though BARSHIBA + BAHAARAH for being 4 yo's. FESTIVALE won a Listed Handicap at Royal Ascot finishing just over 2l in front of SHAKER . However according to the Racing Post report SHAKER had ' a nightmare run' and could not find a gap when poised to make her move [ funnily enough SPENCER was on board that day , R HALVIN takes the ride here] SHAKER gets 4lb from FESTIVALE here. She is the only 3yo not carrying a penalty and has won only once in a Cl 5 event so it fits nearly all the criteria And given a better run this time could come in at a nice price :hope

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends And unfortunately the losing streak continues :sad SHAKER - UNP :cry LUCARNO - UNP :cry Well done to those who stuck with Duke Of Marmalade , he certainly got the 12 f today :\

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends GOODWOOD 3.30 7f Grp 2 3yo+ ----------------------------------- Odds - no great trend here with prices rangins from Fav [1] up to 16/1 . Age - 3 x 3yo , 3 x 5yo , 2 x 4yo. 7/8 had won over 7f 7/8 won at Listed/Group level [ 6 - Group winners] 8/8 rated 108+ 7/8 ran at Listed/Grp grade LTO Quick summary - DUNELIGHT + AL QASI have not won over 7f. KING OF DIXIE has only won at Cl 3 grade . RACER FOREVER ran in a Handicap LTO. 2 of the 3yo winners had ran in the French 2000 gns that season and with GODOLPHIN winning 2 runnings of this race in previous seasons and the Fav record being poor i'm going to nominate Ii WAARD who ran 12th [ ran too freely that day ] in that race but has winning Listed form on G/F going and is a 7f winner. Sorry it's a bit bare but time is short on the PC.

[bowles10]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends ran like all other Frankie's mounts, poorly.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Is it me or are GODOLPHIN steadily getting worse as the seasons go by ?? Anyway onto the SUSSEX STAKES at Glorious Goodwood and in summary we're looking for a Previous Grp 1 winner or a close 2nd in Grp 1 company [7/10 ]. Inthe top 4 in the betting [9/10] Rated 115 + [10/10] Age - 5 x3yo's , 5 x 4yo+. Ok so out of the 7 declared runners - MAJOR CADEAUX [ No wins or close 2nd in G1 + rated 114 ] , DREAM EATER [ rated 111 ] , WINDSOR PALACE [200/1 reflects it's chance ] and WINKER WATSON [ no wins/place G1 ] are discounted straight away . TARIQ - Rated 115 and has finished 2nd [ btn 1l] in a Group 1 but has doubts about staing with no wins over the mile [ 3/4 were over 7f the other was a 6f race] HENRYTHENAVIGATOR - Rated 124 and with 3 Grp 1 wins all over the mile looks sure to start a very short priced Fav . RAVENS PASS - Rated 121 and although it has not won a Grp 1 it was only btn three quarters of a length by HTN at Royal Ascot , then was reportedly a shade unlucky when 2nd in a G1 over in France LTO means that i'm nominating this one to surprise the fav . Should be no doubts about the distance and hopefully the small field will be to it's advantage.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends OOH so near !!! RAVENS PASS 2nd Had no time to study post yesterday and today the First race has only just been upgraded to Grp 3 so no main bets today . However i've done a bit of scouting around the other meetings and there's a couple at Thirsk that catch the eye . 2.05 - M CHANNON has ran 5 in this over the past 10 seasons with 3 winning at odds of 5/2, 11/4 and 7/2 . The 2 unplaced were 12/1 and 33/1. Today he runs SCENIC PASS who looks like starting in the top 3 in the betting , has a tricky draw but has been running well in Nurseries . 3.15 - This has been won by a 3yo [8/9] Southern trained [7/9] FAV - [7/9] As it stands right now - AFLAAM fits the bill although the trainer states that it might not run if the ground is unsuitable . If thats the case just bet the FAV as it's sure to fit the other 2 stats .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends SCENIC PASS - UNP @ 11/4 F AFLAAM 1ST @ 2/5 F Another one of these in the 1st at Thirsk today - 2.00 - 8/10 FAVS 8/10 COLTS M Johnston - 2wins T Easteby - 2wins M Channon - 1 win Go with the FAV , providing it's one of the Colts.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends 2.00 THIRSK 1st FAV @ 5/2 :loon Simplicity is somtimes the best way !!!

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Back from hols and here's a tentative selection for Wednesday - SALISBURY 4.05 10f Listed ----------------------------- 9/10 were returned at 13/2 or under 6/10 were 3yo's , 4/10 were 4yo's 8/9 with a BHA rating were rated 95+ Record of 4yo's that started 13/2 or under in the past 10 seasons= 1st , 1st , 1st [2nd was 4yo @ 7/1] A FABRE has had 7 winners from 20 runners in the UK in the past 5 seasons There looks like being 4 that will start around 13/2 or under on betfair and those are - IN THE LIGHT BASQUE BEAUTY ICON PROJECT CAPE AMBER BASQUE BEAUTY [3yo] is only rated 90 but is only having it's 3 career outing here so is well open to improvement. ICON PROJECT [3yo] rated 105 , will not run if there is further rain and the forecast isn't too promising. CAPE AMBER [3yo] rated 104 , and comes from the CHAPPEL-HYAM yard who , despite having had a couple of lower grade winners in the past couple of days are still firing well short of expectation. IN THE LIGHT comes from the A FABRE stable , definately a stranger at this course ] and is a 4yo . It has won twice [once on SOFT the other on GOOD] and been placed 9 times from 12 runs , so it's consistent !! R MOORE takes the ride here so with some doubts over the youngsters and the good record of fancied 4yos + FABRE'S UK record i think it could be worth an interest.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends IN THE LIGHT - UNP @ 3/1F :eyes Trying to keep it simple and concentrating on Weekends only now the Footie has started . 3.15 NEWBURY Grp 2 7f -------------------------- This has been upgraded to Grp 2 from Grp 3 in only the past couple of seasons but i think the same principles will apply . 9/10 were returned 13/2 or under [ 2 clear and 1 jt fav ] 10/10 had won over 7f 9/10 were 4yo+ [ only 1 3yo from 31 runners has been successful] 8/10 had won at Group /Listed grade 7/9 that had a BHA rating were rated 108+ Taking the first 5 in the betting we have - PACO BOY and ALEXANDROS are 3yo's so thats them sorted WELSH EMPEROR is now a 9yo and age must surely be catching up with him? AL QASI has never won over 7f . So the winner is :loon - ARABIAN GLEAM who is top rated of the 5 , has won over 7f and won a Grp 2 . The only negative is the fact he has not won on Softish ground but thats a chance the trainers willing to take so he knows best ;)

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends ARABIAN GLEAM 4th Ain't gonna get involved with the Ebor meeting as YORK + HEAVY going do not favour the formbook or stats . If i may offer a small bit of advice then it's follow the front runners .When the conditions are as bad as forecasted at this track it's VERY hard to show a turn of foot .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends WINDSOR 6.50 Grp 3 10f g/f ------------------------------- 10/10 were returned at 8/1 or under [ 5 favs] 10/10 had ran between 2 - 5 times that season 9/10 had won or been placed at Listed/Group level , those that had not won at those grade's had at least won a Class 2 event. 8/10 were rated 102+ 8/10 had won that season 8/10 had been placed 1st - 4th LTO 5 x 3yo's have won 4 x 4yo's have won Sir M Stoute has won this 4 times from 5 runners in the past 8 season's Here's those that are on 8/1 or under with the bookies and reason's for selection/rejection. SILVER PIVOTAL - has not ran since 15th March , so technically this is his turf seasonal debut. SUPASEUS - 5yo GULF EXPRESS - 4yo rated 105 who has ran 5 times this season , won at Cl 2 grade and won LTO .Trained by M STOUTE STOTSFOLD - 5yo BUSHMAN - Only won at Class 3 grade UNNEFER - 3yo who is rated 111 , has won at Listed grade and been btn a sh-hd in a Grp 3 , ran 4 times this season winning twice but was out of the frame LTO. Summary - GULF EXPRESS narrowly gets the vote from UNNEFER by the fact of it's placing LTO but mainly due to the STOUTE factor.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Trying to regain an interest in our 4-legged friends , so being a naturally lazy sod here's a couple of quick pointers for Saturdays CHEPSTOW card . 3-40 - A Juvenile Novice Hurdle which has been won by the FAV no fewer than 8 times from the past 9 runnings . So simply go for the Fav here . 4-15 - Phillip HOBB'S record here is 1 , 1 , 2 , 4 , 1 , 1 since 98' . He has the probable 2nd Fav in the shape of I HEAR A SYMPHONY.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Well thats what i get for trying the lazy approach :@ , so it looks like some more study will hopefully yield results . FRIDAY - NEWMARKET 3.45 10f Listed --------------------------------------- 7/10 were 3yo's 8/10 were in the top 6 in the betting 8/10 had won or been placed at Listed /Group level 8/10 were placed 4th or WORSE LTO. 8/10 were rated 100+ The previous 6 winners had not ran since August . Using the stats we can reduce the 11 runner race down to 3 by applying the age / odds criteria . With only 5 three year olds declared , and 2 of those are 16/1+ , that leaves us with - CLASSIC REMARK MOON SISTER SPACIOUS 4 Favs have won from 10 so SPACIOUS is not without a chance but she has ran as lately as the 4th October and with the stable having had 21 runners in the past 14 days of which NONE have won , added to the fact that she has ever tackled this distance before , makes me loath to go for the Fav. MOON SISTER ran her best race LTO when 4l 2nd in a Listed event and is rated 100 , however i am of the opinion that she is still lacking the class to take this race and that race was only 30 days ago. So the selection is CLASSIC REMARK , which is the mount of Frankie Dettori , who has a 23% strike rate for J Fanshawe , trainer of SPACIOUS , so the question is why is he not on the Fav ?? CLASSIC REMARK last ran 54 days ago back on the 24th of August when 9th in a Group 3 race . Rated 108 here and a 10f winner i think the 8/1 on offer is afair price although there could a couple of non-runners due to ground conditions so beware of deductions if you get on early.

[fintron]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Glad to see this thread back, hope you hit another purple patch jtw :tongue2

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Cheers Fintron :ok , poor result yesterday with 4yo's filling the top 3 positons :( NEWMARKET 5.35 Group 3 16f ------------------------------ 10/10 ran in at least Listed/Group class LTO 9/10 were returned at 9/1 or under 8/9 which had a BHA rating were rated 109+ Take out the great PERSIAN PUNCH [ 3 times winner ] and those other 7 winners had ran between 4-6 times that season. So , using Betfair's current odds that removes BIG ROBERT, HOST NATION , CARTE DIAMOND + CLASSIC PUNCH . FUILIN is only rated 102 so that one's out of the equation VERACITY has only ran twice this season and LTO was only a Class 3 event. BALKAN KNIGHT will be having his 9th outing of the season here and although it has won a couple of small-field Listed races i can't see this one winning. SAGARA has a rating of 109 and ran LTO in Listed company but with only 1 career win win to his name [ 3yo French Maiden ] and the fact that Dettori has chosen to ride VERACITY makes it an easy choice to leave out So the winner is :loon DISTINCTION !! , coming from the Stoute yard who won this in 2000 , indeed DISTINCTION was 4th in this last year . Rated 112 and ran in Listed grade LTO , has won 5 Listed events and a Group 2 back in 2005 . Has ran 5 times this season and although a 9yo this race has been won by a 6 7 and 8 y-o in 3 of the last 4 runnings and PERSIAN PUNCH was 7 , 9 and 10 when winning his treble . :hope

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends DISTINCTION - UNP :( Switching to the jumps to try and regain an interest in the game. 3.00 WETHERBY Grade 2 hurdle 25f G/F ---------------------------------------- 10/10 were returned at 12/1 or Under [ 3 favs, but 3 odds-on were beaten] 10/10 were aged 6yo+ 8/10 were aged between 8 and 11 yo 10/10 were rated 136+ 9/10 had won between 22 - 26f 9/10 had won/been placed at Grade 1/2/3 level 4/10 [inc the last 3] had ran in both the Long distance hurdle at Aintree and/or the World hurdle at Cheltenham in the previous season. 8/8 5yo's have ran and been beaten , all were returned at 15/2 or under , with 2 starting fav. Taking the top 5 in the betting gives and we have - MOBAASHER who has won over 24f and was 3rd in a Gr 1 but is only a 5yo and won only at Cl 2 level so i'm discounting that one along with LIBERATE for exactly the same reason's ie only won at Cl 2 grade and is a 5yo. FAASEL has won at Grade 1 class and is a 7yo but has never won beyond 19f so i;magaisnt this one for that reason. PETTIFOUR is a 6yo who has won a Grade 1 event and has been victorious over 25f . TWISTON-DAVIES is certainly a man in form BUT a cause of concern is the fact that this horse has only ran 5 times and no previous winner has had as few outings . Added to the fact that although it has won on Good going it's other 2 wins were on softer going . That leaves us with the PIPE trained LOUGH DERG as the selection . If the stable hadn't had a winner at UTTOXETER today i may well have nominated NTD's runner as the selection but that winner puts a different complection on this race . LOUGH DERG has won at GR1 + 2 level , has won over 25f , is an 8yo [ 5 out of 10 winners came from that vintage ] , ran in last season's Long Dist at Aintree and the World at Chelt , has won 3 times on G/F going and 3 times on Good . It has a decent record when running fresh [ 60day gap ] -1,1,5,2,3,3. So i suggest having an Each-way bet on LOUGH DERG [ providing there's no non-runners] and as long as 8/1 is available.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Hello all [ again :eyes ] , going out into Edinburgh tomorrow for Xmas day out with boys from work and one of them asked me to try and find a winner for him tomorrow , so with that in mind i had a look back at my Trends system for this week last year and found some interesting stats for the 3.05 Handicap Hurdle at Sandown. 8/9 carried between 10:00 and 10:06 [ other shouldered 10:13 ] 9/9 were returned @ 16/1 or under with only 1 fav winning . 7/9 had won lto [ other 2 were 3rd lto ] 7/9 were aged 4-6yo 7/9 had ran within 14 days So if we have a look from the bottom of the Handicap upwards we have SPEAR THISTLE and TCHICO POLOS as the only 2 horses from the bottom half of the Handicap who have won lto . SPEAR THISTLE won lto , is a 6yo , carries only 10:06 and is 9/1 in the betting . On the [slightly] negative side it last ran 20 days ago . TCHICO POLOS won lto , is a 4yo [ best record of all winning ages ] and is around the 11/2 2nd fav mark . On the negative side it carries 10:11 [ not perfect but 10:13 has been carried ] , last ran 28 days ago [although 2 winners have had similar gaps ] I cannot ignore the chance of TCHICO POLOS as he comes from the P NICHOLS yard who also run the top weight [ keeps the weights down for other runners ] and the yard has had 1 WIN , 1x2ND and 1 unp from 3 runners since in 9 runnings . So , as is the trend now is [ and a very sensible one at that ] i am going for the following - 10pt win TCHICO POLOS @ 6.5 with CORALS 10pt E.W SPEAR THISTLE @ 10.0 with CORALS

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends

Hello all [ again :eyes ] , going out into Edinburgh tomorrow for Xmas day out with boys from work and one of them asked me to try and find a winner for him tomorrow , so with that in mind i had a look back at my Trends system for this week last year and found some interesting stats for the 3.05 Handicap Hurdle at Sandown. 8/9 carried between 10:00 and 10:06 [ other shouldered 10:13 ] 9/9 were returned @ 16/1 or under with only 1 fav winning . 7/9 had won lto [ other 2 were 3rd lto ] 7/9 were aged 4-6yo 7/9 had ran within 14 days So if we have a look from the bottom of the Handicap upwards we have SPEAR THISTLE and TCHICO POLOS as the only 2 horses from the bottom half of the Handicap who have won lto . SPEAR THISTLE won lto , is a 6yo , carries only 10:06 and is 9/1 in the betting . On the [slightly] negative side it last ran 20 days ago . TCHICO POLOS won lto , is a 4yo [ best record of all winning ages ] and is around the 11/2 2nd fav mark . On the negative side it carries 10:11 [ not perfect but 10:13 has been carried ] , last ran 28 days ago [although 2 winners have had similar gaps ] I cannot ignore the chance of TCHICO POLOS as he comes from the P NICHOLS yard who also run the top weight [ keeps the weights down for other runners ] and the yard has had 1 WIN , 1x2ND and 1 unp from 3 runners since in 9 runnings . So , as is the trend now is [ and a very sensible one at that ] i am going for the following - 10pt win TCHICO POLOS @ 6.5 with CORALS 10pt E.W SPEAR THISTLE @ 10.0 with CORALS

SPEAR THISTLE 2nd btn a nk :@

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Inspired by last weeks near miss i've had a look at the Cheltenham card for Staurday and may have found one to beat the odds-on Fav in the RELKEEL Hurdle. Only 2 winnings Favs in the past 7 runnings , 3 Short priced Favs have failed @ 8/11 , evens and 6/4. But the most eye-catching statistic is the winning record of 4 year-olds. There have been 4 winners from that vintage in 7 runnings but in 2 of those there was no 4yo runner. [ the 4yo was 2nd in the other running ] With the odds-on Fav PUNCHESTOWNS being a 5yo i'm looking at the only 4 yo in the race and thats P BOWENS SERABAD . This one will be ridden by AP McCOY who has a 30% strike rate on the stables Hurdlers. Sitting at around 5/1 2nd Fav i think it could be worth a bet .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends Above meeting was abandoned . WED 31st DEC -------------- PUNCHESTOWN 2.45 - A 3yo Maiden Hurdle which seems to be a favourite target of WP MULLINS as he has won the last 3 runnings [ only run 5 times and the stable full record is , No runner , 4 , 1 , 1 , 1 and he runs the probable Fav here in the shape of MOURAD on whom Ruby Walsh takes the ride . WARWICK 3.30 - This National Hunt Flat race has been run 5 times and each time it has fallen to the market leader [ one was joint ] and Henderson's RYDE BACK looks as though it will start at the head esp with AP on board .

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends MOURAD was beaten into 2nd by a Short-head @ 5/4 f Lets keep the :hope we can start off 2009 with a winner . TRAMORE - 2.20 - Listed Chase - 21f -------------------------------------- Only been run 5 times but i think we can dig out an interesting stat or two 5/5 were returned in the top 3 in the betting [ 4 were fav or 2nd fav ] 4/5 were rated 140+ 4/5 had won a Listed/Grade race From the returned odds and the Ratings we can discount all but - ONE COOL COOKIE KNIGHT LEGEND TUMBLING DICE FORGET THE PAST TUMBLING DICE has the lowest rating of the 4[139] and has 7 career wins to it's name but NONE those were over 20f . It has never won over further and it's one Grade win was over the min 16f. So with that in mind i'm discounting it. FORGET THE PAST is the old man of the race , will be 11 officially when the race is run but has an impressive record when returning from a break of 3 months or more - 1 [fto] , 3 , 1 , 2 ,0 , 1 ,1 . It has winning form in Grade 1 ,2 and 3 and is rated 147 [ dropping down from 155 ] but won off last time it was on mark as low. However the main negative is the stable form as they have not had a runner placed in 9 races in the past 14 days . ONE COOL COOKIE might start Fav here and deservedly so as it has the highest rating of 150. It has proven winning form at this grade but , as with FORGET THE PAST , the suspect form of the stables runners cast a doubt over it with 0 placings from 17 runners in the past fortnight from the Swan yard. KNIGHT LEGEND gets the vote here on several scores the most obvious is the fact it won the race last season . Rated 148 with Grade 2 + 3 race winning form and likely to start 2nd Fav are all in it's favour. The way the race is likely to be run should suit it as ONE COOL COOKIE will probably try to make all [ as it has done in all but one of it's 6 career wins] and this may suit KNIGHT LEGEND best of all as it has won 4 of it's 6 career wins by tracking the leader . The stable has had 3 winners + several placings in the past 14 days and i'm taking this one to make it 4 :hope

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends If CATTERICK survives the weather then SCRIPTWRITER must have a Favs chance in the 3:05 . The Favs [ inc jt] have won this 7 out of the last 10 runnings . Also the trainer [ J Howard Johnston] has already won this 3 times . Odds-on but one for the acca's.

[jtw1]

Re: JTW1's Specialisation - Trends For the 3rd time on the trot the selection finishes 2nd :eyes @ 7/2 this time . CATTERICK was abandoned :(