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The 10 Year Plan

WorkingForTheEnemy
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WorkingForTheEnemy

WorkingForTheEnemy

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This is something Ive been giving thought for quite some time now. Ive been mostly waiting to get the cash together to start it. Im still a little short but have enough to get things underway and Ill add the rest of the bank in as and when. It shouldnt really affect things, if it does then it means Im in trouble anyway. New week, new year, seems an appropiate time. There wont be anything systematic about the selections but there is a solid strategy as far as profits and bank growth is concerned. I also feel it belongs here rather than GH as, although the end aim is high, Iconsider it a realistic plan as it involves small growth, rather than a long shotattempt at something. Anyway heres the plan. Start bank is £1000. I'll be aiming to make 2% of that starting bank each week over roughly 50 weeks. This will give 100% growth over a year and therefore doubling the bank. At this stage the 2% will be reassessed and it all starts again. Basically we are looking to double the bank each year. I intend on making the 2% using 1 - 5 bets a week. These will often or not be short price bets that I feel very confident about. One issue will be if I make a loss or miss my target one week. If these happens I have installed a plan to help prevent chasing losses. Rather than trying to make up the week's defieciet the next week I will spread it over the remainder of the year. e.g. If one week I make no profit and lose £30. If theres 40 weeks left then my normal aim would be £20 p/w x 40 = £800. Add the £20profit we didnt make and the £30 loss equals £850. We then split this over the remainding 40 weeks to give us a target of £21.25 pw. This should help prevent chasing losses immediatly and the possibliity of getting in a real mess. The target will only ever change to compensate losses. Extra profit will not cause it to go below the 2% aim. The ideal would be to run this for 10 years but in realtime this may prove an issue when stakes get large. At ths point the strategy may need to be adjusted but by that point a very nice profit would have been made anyway. Heres how things should work out: Start Bank: £1000 Year 1:£2000 Year 2:£4000 Year 3:£8000 Year 4:£16,000 Year 5:£32,000 Year 6:£64,000 Year 7:£128,000 Year 8:£256,000 Year 9:£512,000 Year 10:£1,024,000 Ten years mayseem a long time but as we know ,patience is a key discipline in gambling. When looking at the big picture it doesnt seem to long either. Ive just turned 26, if I could imagine having £1m by the time Im 36 that seems like no time at all in the grand scheme of things. Bets will be posted up when placed, followed by results with a full update at the end of each week. Please feel free to add any thoughts or comments.

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davidc

davidc

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Re: The 10 Year Plan Good luck with this WTFE. A couple of questions: Will you be concentrating on one sport or will you be using various sports where you think you have an edge? What sort of average odds do you envisage? The level of odds is very important in this type of 'increase bank' staking strategy as the lower the average odds the higher your stake needs to be to achieve your 2% target so if the odds are very low (e.g. 1.10) your stake size would be very large compared to average odds of 2.5. If you hit a losing run with very low odds then a large portion of your bank could be at risk.

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WorkingForTheEnemy

WorkingForTheEnemy

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Re: The 10 Year Plan

Will you be concentrating on one sport or will you be using various sports where you think you have an edge?
Id imagine most bets would be horses and football as these are my stronger points. Other sports will be used though if I feel somethings a strong bet and when sports are in season.i.e. baseball, nfl.
What sort of average odds do you envisage?
Odds will range. I imagine most will be between 1/4 and Evs. There may be some shorter such as 0-0 lays though.
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FleetFanatic

FleetFanatic

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Re: The 10 Year Plan

One issue will be if I make a loss or miss my target one week. If these happens I have installed a plan to help prevent chasing losses. Rather than trying to make up the week's defieciet the next week I will spread it over the remainder of the year.
Good luck mate. This bit is where I went wrong on my bank account theory. I might rekindle it taking this on board. :ok
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Datapunter

Datapunter

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Re: The 10 Year Plan Good luck WFTE, A suggestion if i may, how about setting the weekly target a bit higher and working with a "reserve bank". For example set the target to 3%. You need 2% weekly to double the bank. If you make the 3% then the surplus goes into the "reserve bank", if you fall short a week then first use the "reserve bank" to get to the 2% amount. Do this consistently for say 2 months and then see where you stand. This appears to me a more "level" strategy, what you suggest always has a ring of chasing to it. This is not about money but about psychology and discipline. It should also give you more freedom to determine a max. stake size, as well as actually accept a losing week. With your suggested approach you know you will hit a losing/short week at some point, so you know the target will increase, therefore stakes will increase, therefore risk will increase. It sounds "desperate" rather than "managed".

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WorkingForTheEnemy

WorkingForTheEnemy

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Re: The 10 Year Plan

With your suggested approach you know you will hit a losing/short week at some point, so you know the target will increase, therefore stakes will increase, therefore risk will increase. It sounds "desperate" rather than "managed".
Many times I expect to only use a few bets to reach my target. If the target increases it probably wont involve increased stakes but more bets, although still a higher risk involved I guess. Appreciate the idea though and think I will run with it. Aim for 3% but settle for 2%. Like you said, gives me more breathing space and room for error.
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WorkingForTheEnemy

WorkingForTheEnemy

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Re: The 10 Year Plan It doesnt seem to have been the best timeto start this. A losing week to start and then a blank 2nd week due to illness and other distractions. It would be tempting to say ignore Week 2 but this is a longterm plan. Theres no way Im going 10 years without feeling ill or having something distract me from my gambling so these weeks have to be accounted for. Hopefully things are back to normal (kinda) now and I can get back to trying to make some profit. Week 1 Analysis Bets:6 Wins:3 Stakes:£95 Returns:£77.17 P/L: - £17.83 Target Bank:£1020 Actual Bank:£982.17 Reserve Bank:£0 Week 2 Analysis Bets:0 Wins:0 Stakes:£0 Returns:£0 P/L: £0 Target Bank:£1040 Actual Bank:£982.17 Reserve Bank:£0

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SydCityKid

SydCityKid

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Re: The 10 Year Plan Mate Please Do Not Bet On Horses Your 1 Mill Will Quikly Turn Into A 1000 Lost. Instead Stick With Sports Like A Great Roger Federer In The 2 Nd Round Of Any Tourny, Or Nadal To Win When He Is Playing On Clay. Have You Thought About Betting On The Nrl Australian Rugby League? Often You Will Get A Team Thats Dead Set Going To Win No Matter What At 1.25, 1.18, 1.5. Let Me No What You Think. Gl

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AlanDB

AlanDB

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Re: The 10 Year Plan

Week 3 : 15th - 21st Jan Ferrer to beat Stepanek 1.61 Roddick to beat Safin 1.50 £30 win double (W.Hills)
Hello WFTE. Nice to see a long term strategy here and all the best with it :ok . Are you sticking with certain bookies? The only reason I ask is cos I also bet on Ferrer to beat Stepanek but managed 1.69 on Betfair (I think it's trading at about 1.67 now). Then again you can't do doubles on betfair :lol
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